Donn Handicap discussion

[letswastemoney]

I'm looking at Romansh here, as I want a horse that can create enough separation to withstand Will Take Charge late. I think any stalker or closer will be outkicked by Will Take Charge.

What do you think?

[PhantomOnTour]

Gonna be tough to beat the only Gr1 winner in the field, and he's got two of them - Will Take Charge.
But now may be the best time to try to beat him...off the layoff.

If the price is right I will try with a runner who has had one off the shelf, and a winning one at that, over the track - Revolutionary.
Castellano is 3-4 on his back and the easy win in last could be the springboard. My numbers have his 11Jan race right with his career best, and better may be coming.
Romansh and Lea can be used, but I am against both in the win hole.
Where's the speed?...River Seven? He isn't much compared to these. Rosario should go with Lea and see what they can do out front.

The downside is that Revolutionary is almost guaranteed to be the 2nd betting choice behind WTC and he will go off below his 5-1 ML. I am thinking more like 3-1 or 7-2....and if the Coach has WTC ready they're all running for 2nd.

[Robert Fischer]

It's going to be an interesting start, because the speed appears to be from the outside half of the field.

[raybo]

No speed in the race (55-56 fps in FR1 and FR2, with no E horses and low early speed points) so this one could go just about any way. That said I have, in ranked order:

3 Revolutionary
6 Romansh
2 Will Take Charge
8 Lea
1 Uncaptured

Need 2/1 or higher on the top 3 ranks (3 6 2)

[BlinkersOn]

I like the #8 Lea for the win.

[luvalab]

Will Take Charge has as much right to win this race as anyone in the field. But, with that said I think this is a good place to try to beat him. I going with Romansh in the top spot. He's 2 for 3 at this distance and has put up some decent numbers. But he needs to fire big off the layoff to win. Also, I can't knock those who like Revolutionary. He has a will to win and has run well at GP and at this distance. He needs to take a step forward to win, but he is perfectly capable. Using him in my exotics.

[burnsy]

I think the :5: River Seven deserves a look here. :2: Will Take Charge will take some beating but this horse ran "dead nuts" last out over this surface. He also has strung good races together and that last race was his best dirt effort. Stalking position bodes well on this surface. :3: Revolutionary will be coming but it may be too late.

[iceknight]

:2: with :7: :5: :6: and
:7: with :2: :5: :6:

:7: Viramundo looks like the only value here. Revolutionary's value has been increased by Falling Sky's win. Lea (beat Jackson bend who didnt do much yday), Neck n Neck dont fare to do much. I expect WTC to win easily, Coach has not been sitting around watching superbowl and wasting time!

[classhandicapper]

The major handicapping issue is that there's no speed in the race. That might compromise some of the horses in the race that have the potential to break out with a good enough race to beat Will Take Charge. So not only do you have to break out enough to beat him, you have to hope to get good enough position to actually accomplish it.

[jerry-g]

My system has them in the following order.

:3: Revolutionary
:6: Romanish
:8: Lea

It has Will Take Charge in 5th and I believe he can at least hit the board
so I would have to have him included for ex and tri. 3/6,8,2

I might add that my top pick was just barely over my second, so either
stands a good chance at the win.

[iceknight]

:2: with :7: :3: :6: <<edited and
:7: with :2: :3: :6: <<edited

:7: Viramundo looks like the only value here. Revolutionary's value has been increased by Falling Sky's win. Lea (beat Jackson bend who didnt do much yday), Neck n Neck dont fare to do much. I expect WTC to win easily, Coach has not been sitting around watching superbowl and wasting time! Instead of the :5:, i actually meant :3: Revolutionary

[Beachbabe]

I'm going long with :9: Bourbon Courage. Second time blinkers, has been working very fast at Palm Meadows. Was second in this race last year beating the third place horse by 5 lengths. He may be the speed.
Putting him on top & bottom with the :2: & :3:

[SanbornSpike]

I'm leaning towards :5: River Seven. My hometown trainer Nick Gonzalez has him sharp and he can pull the upset.

[Ocala Mike]

From Beachbabe's keyboard to God; I like the :9: too.

[Robert Fischer]

I like Revolutionary here.


One seemingly logical pace setup would be:
..:5::6::8:
......
:2::3:


If :3: Revolutionary is sitting on a big race, he could end up getting first run on :2: Will Take Charge (a horse coming off a 72 day freshening & who generally needs every inch of stretch run).

WPS :3:

and Exactas :3: top/bottom :2::5::6::8:

[JustRalph]

:2: :3: :5: :9:

[headhawg]

3-5-8, with a slight edge to the 3.

[Tom]

So is Revolutionary a 92 horse or a 103 horse?
Lot of uncertainty in that spread.

[OTM Al]

9f race at GP still heavily disadvantages horses outside the 6 hole for win honors. Stronger horses seem to be on the inside so tough to go longshot on top. Will go 3/2+9 for the exacta hoping the 9 can make up some ground.

[Racetrack Playa]

:2: WTC is top
then I mix
:8: lea
:5: river seven
:1: uncaptured
:3: revolutionary
:4: neck and neck

Super

[letswastemoney]

So is Revolutionary a 92 horse or a 103 horse?
Lot of uncertainty in that spread.
They probably changed the Beyer once they saw Falling Sky win. I don't trust Beyers anymore anyway.

[classhandicapper]

They probably changed the Beyer once they saw Falling Sky win. I don't trust Beyers anymore anyway.

Yikes. It must have been a tough day to make figures and yesterday gave them their answer.

[Valuist]

As for the other big race, the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap, my main opinion is a negative one on Summer Front. Had an absolutely picture perfect trip last time. Horses can't count on those kind of setups repeatedly. I'm going with Amira's Price and Imagining in my P4s and going to toss Nicki's Sandcastle under those two in exactas.

[JustRalph]

As for the other big race, the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap, my main opinion is a negative one on Summer Front. Had an absolutely picture perfect trip last time. Horses can't count on those kind of setups repeatedly. I'm going with Amira's Price and Imagining in my P4s and going to toss Nicki's Sandcastle under those two in exactas.

I like yours too........but if that :8: comes off the layoff well......???

Have to put some money on that horse if the odds are right

Seems like no pace at all.....the :8: could be in a good spot if ready to go

1.3 million dollar winner can't be overlooked

[Valuist]

I like yours too........but if that :8: comes off the layoff well......???

Have to put some money on that horse if the odds are right

Seems like no pace at all.....the :8: could be in a good spot if ready to go

1.3 million dollar winner can't be overlooked

If the turf were good or soft, I'd give Boisterous a big shot at winning. But he doesn't seem to be quite as good on firm going.

[Tom]

Yikes. It must have been a tough day to make figures and yesterday gave them their answer.

IMHO, the wrong answer.

[Beachbabe]

I'm going with :7: Imagining. The last 3 times he was laid off, he came back with a win. He could show the speed here on a track that is now favoring speed.

[speed]

How bout the #1 Lochte sitting a trip and crashing the super @ 30/1

[Robert Fischer]

with 3mtp

surprised to see the Daily Double: :7:Imagining over :3: Revolutionary paying less than the 2 Will Take Charge.

104K so far in this pool

[wonatthewire1]

I like yours too........but if that :8: comes off the layoff well......???

Have to put some money on that horse if the odds are right

Seems like no pace at all.....the :8: could be in a good spot if ready to go

1.3 million dollar winner can't be overlooked

:1: :2: will be running early
agree that the :7: will be right on the pace setters

Thinking EX
:7: :8: / :2: :3: :4:

[RXB]

As for the other big race, the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap, my main opinion is a negative one on Summer Front. Had an absolutely picture perfect trip last time. Horses can't count on those kind of setups repeatedly. I'm going with Amira's Price and Imagining in my P4s and going to toss Nicki's Sandcastle under those two in exactas.

I'm taking a modest play on huge longshot Lochte whom I thought ran a corker in his allowance win.

[wonatthewire1]

How bout the #1 Lochte sitting a trip and crashing the super @ 30/1

:cool:

[Beachbabe]

How bout the #1 Lochte sitting a trip and crashing the super @ 30/1

Hope you had it. :ThmbUp:

[Beachbabe]

I'm taking a modest play on huge longshot Lochte whom I thought ran a corker in his allowance win.

Nice call.

[Valuist]

Great call by RXB.

Having said that, what a bad Grade 1. The winner just got out of a conditioned allowance. Imagining was way too far back and went very wide. Probably ran the best race while Lochte saved every inch of ground.

[JustRalph]

That Bocachica guy sure does hit some long ones..........

congrats if you had that one.........

[Robert Fischer]

wow , nice call :ThmbUp:

[Racetrack Playa]

That Bocachica guy sure does hit some long ones...........
Orlando! Bocachica , Bomb Pilot Extraordinaire nice race

[iceknight]

nice call by RXB .. and also speed, did you box some evil dime supers?

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[JimG]

I'm looking at :9: Bourbon Courage for the upset.

Jim

[davew]

I like the russian Dorenchenko to be in the high5 with Macho Bull (since someone paid $5500 to start - is that right?)

[iceknight]

Umm.. too many track records happening at GP now.. either the track has been made too fast or the timer is acting up again?

Mott as usual shining at Gr 1 level :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

Great job by Rosario to still hustle over to the 2-path prior to the first turn, even with horses like Uncaptured changing tactics to get position.

Will Take Charge really did a lot of running there. Pretty good comeback for him.

[BlinkersOn]

I hoped for longer odds on Lea, but never doubted the win for a minute. I cashed a fine ticket on Lea for the win. :) The ticket was stamped to the winner's circle for me in the January race.

[iceknight]

I like the #8 Lea for the win. Good call :ThmbUp:

[speed]

nice call by RXB .. and also speed, did you box some evil dime supers?

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
Can't complain, except if Charge wins the Donn we have the super high 5.
Thought he could have followed the 8 into the turn and then wins. Need to watch it again.

[horses4courses]

I hoped for longer odds on Lea, but never doubted the win for a minute. I cashed a fine ticket on Lea for the win. :) The ticket was stamped to the winner's circle for me in the January race.

Very nice call, teammate! :ThmbUp:

[BlinkersOn]

Thank you:) You might know it wasn't a day when we were in a contest, darn it. I'm so glad I didn't let the pro handicappers ever sway my opinion. Lea broke the track record today.

[letswastemoney]

So is Revolutionary a 92 horse or a 103 horse?
Lot of uncertainty in that spread.
DRF must feel silly now for changing it.

[dylbert]

Very nice inaugural broadcast! Horse racing really looks great on HDTV.

Personally, I was flattered when my Tweet got read on air by the Mig. "39-1 Lochte upsets! Great rail skimming ride" just after running of Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. Plus, it got retweet, too. @wire2wirewin

Lea was my 4th choice and really fired an excellent effort. Unfortunately, the 'juiced up' track debate may detract from this victory. Still, Donn Handicap is noteworthy black-type.

[BlinkersOn]

Nothing is going to detract from Lea's win, and in breaking the track record. I picked this horse to win the Donn last month after the win. Excuses....if they credit the track it is garbage.

[iceknight]

Nothing is going to detract from Lea's win, and in breaking the track record. I picked this horse to win the Donn last month after the win. Excuses....if they credit the track it is garbage. Lea ran a great race definitely. Also, of course, we saw Groupie doll close fast from the back on the same track so it was nt like the track was one sided!

[BlinkersOn]

It's two down and about 13 to go for Lea, because I think we may be seeing the horse that can compete with Cigar's great career. It is de juvu that he is out of the Bill Mott barn. I see this horse going on to do great things. He also was thought of as a grass horse, just like Cigar, but has proven he loves the dirt. He has a lot to accomplish before we can say he's the next Cigar, but I have a lot of high hopes for this horse.

This is strictly my opinion, of course, but I see the makings of a star.

[Some_One]

Nothing is going to detract from Lea's win, and in breaking the track record. I picked this horse to win the Donn last month after the win. Excuses....if they credit the track it is garbage.

Top 2 beat the field by a pole, if WTC gets a 105, Viramundo gets a 89 and Lea 108...seems low for those horses, maybe 113 for the winner putting Vira on 94?

[BlinkersOn]

For anyone to say the track was speed favoring would negate the great come from behind win by Groupie Doll. I personally think that Lea is the real deal, and breaking the track record confirms it.

[Grits]

The horse you picked beat the three year old champion who had not raced in 70 days by a length and a half with 9 lengths back to the rest of the field. WTC ate through a 3 length lead in the stretch, coming to your world beater whose wins have come via his maiden, OC's and G3s.

Had Groupie Doll, (that other champion) not won by 7, 2 ticks off the track record a couple of hours earlier, you may have something to write home about. At this point, I'm sorry, you don't.

The next CIGAR. :lol:

[BlinkersOn]

The horse you picked beat the three year old champion who had not raced in 70 days by a length and a half with 9 lengths back to the rest of the field. WTC ate through a 3 length lead in the stretch, coming to your world beater whose wins have come via his maiden, OC's and G3s.

Had Groupie Doll, (that other champion) not won by 7, 2 ticks off the track record a couple of hours earlier, you may have something to write home about. At this point, I'm sorry, you don't.

The next CIGAR. :lol:

It sounds like sour grapes to me, but, whatever. You can have any opinion you want, and I'm entitled to mine. I'm sure you had Will Take Charge for the win, am I right? Let's see who gets the last laugh down the road, OK? BTW, Groupie Doll came off a lay-off of more then 60 days, and she was ready.

Cigar lost 7 races before being put on the dirt. He was no "world beater" until then either. You need to study some racing history I think.

[cj]

Yikes. It must have been a tough day to make figures and yesterday gave them their answer.

LOL, that is funny. Nice one.

[ManU918]

I was alive to over $6,000 to Will Take Charge in the Pick 6... Can't remember to many times I was alive to that type of return on a 7/5 shot in the last leg... Nevertheless the people comparing Lea to Cigar need to relax. Cigar won 16 races in a row and of those 16 races 10 of them were grade 1's and one of them was the Dubai World Cup..

http://i1282.photobucket.com/albums/a532/Oxbow13/photo_zpsb5d04d60.jpg (http://s1282.photobucket.com/user/Oxbow13/media/photo_zpsb5d04d60.jpg.html)

[Grits]

Blinkers On, everyone here is glad for those who cash, and congratulates them. As was done for you. I'm glad for you. But now, you're going on and on. Its only one race. One horse won it. And we all know this. You'd do well to realize the same while here at PA.

I'm sorry you lost today, ManU. You'll get another.

[BlinkersOn]

Cigar lost 7 races in a row in the beginning on the turf. It wasn't till he was put on the dirt that he showed what a true champion he was...just saying. Lea was a grass horse, or so they thought, and now they know dirt is his forte.

Only time will tell, but I see Lea being a great horse. Will he be as great as Cigar? Only time is going to tell. I said 2 down and about 13 to go didn't I?

[Stillriledup]

I was alive to over $6,000 to Will Take Charge in the Pick 6... Can't remember to many times I was alive to that type of return on a 7/5 shot in the last leg... Nevertheless the people comparing Lea to Cigar need to relax. Cigar won 16 races in a row and of those 16 races 10 of them were grade 1's and one of them was the Dubai World Cup..

http://i1282.photobucket.com/albums/a532/Oxbow13/photo_zpsb5d04d60.jpg (http://s1282.photobucket.com/user/Oxbow13/media/photo_zpsb5d04d60.jpg.html)

Would you consider (or did you) punch some large exactas with 3 or 4 of the contenders over the chalk? This way, if you get beat by another contender, you have a nice exacta. Thats how i would "save" if i had been alive for 6k with the chalk.

Tough beat, the fave ran great, but the winner ran his eyeballs out.

[Tom]

Just my opinion,it was not much of a race on paper and less of one on the track.
What I take away from the race is how many horses in it were just dismally bad today. When the caboose comes loose, the engine looks fast.

[BlinkersOn]

Blinkers On, everyone here is glad for those who cash, and congratulates them. As was done for you. I'm glad for you. But now, you're going on and on. Its only one race. One horse won it. And we all know this. You'd do well to realize the same while here at PA.

I'm sorry you lost today, ManU. You'll get another.

I believe it was your smart ass comment that set me off. You are right, I have better things to do then argue with you. Your stupid comments need to be totally disregarded. They are simply those of a sore loser. I'm so done with this thread.

[cj]

Cigar lost 7 races in a row in the beginning on the turf. It wasn't till he was put on the dirt that he showed what a true champion he was...just saying. Lea was a grass horse, or so they thought, and now they know dirt is his forte.

Only time will tell, but I see Lea being a great horse. Will he be as great as Cigar? Only time is going to tell. I said 2 down and about 13 to go didn't I?

Cigar actually ran, and won impressively, on dirt before being moved to turf.

[cj]

Just my opinion,it was not much of a race on paper and less of one on the track.
What I take away from the race is how many horses in it were just dismally bad today.

I gave the winner a 117 TimeformUS speed figure. That is not a strong rating for a G1 race for older males.

[speed]

Manu tough beat. Not sure if this makes you feel better who worse but if Will Take Charge stays behind Lea{who ran a huge race and deserved the victory} down the backside instead of taking back and going around he wins. Jockey saw a wall of horses in front of him and wanted to make sure he was in the clear so he took back and lost 3 lengths or so doing it. Both gave super efforts.

[ManU918]

Would you consider (or did you) punch some large exactas with 3 or 4 of the contenders over the chalk? This way, if you get beat by another contender, you have a nice exacta. Thats how i would "save" if i had been alive for 6k with the chalk.

Tough beat, the fave ran great, but the winner ran his eyeballs out.

Nope. I go to the track make my bets and leave. I honestly considered the 8 in the last leg for a little over an hour this morning but Saez has been so god damn hot I thought he would find a way to win the Donn even with the long layoff.... I was wrong.. I could have put a $300 plus ticket in with the 8 and I would be sitting here with 18 dimes... Instead I didn't and I paid for it.

[ManU918]

Manu tough beat. Not sure if this makes you feel better who worse but if Will Take Charge stays behind Lea{who ran a huge race and deserved the victory} down the backside instead of taking back and going around he wins. Jockey saw a wall of horses in front of him and wanted to make sure he was in the clear so he took back and lost 3 lengths or so doing it. Both gave super efforts.

Thanks brother...Part of the game... That's the first mistake I have seen Saez make pretty much all meet. The kid has been on F'n fire. I hated his ride in the Donn and I agree he moved off the rail to early.... Who knows what would of happened.

[BlinkersOn]

Cigar actually ran, and won impressively, on dirt before being moved to turf.


Cigar won 2 out of his first 9 races, and none were stakes races. He surely wasn't world beater. He didn't win a Grade 1 for a long time...a lot longer then it has taken Lea.

Now, I'm turning the computer off, and going to enjoy the Olympics. Look at the race any way you want, but Lea ran his eyeballs out.

[cj]

Cigar won 2 out of his first 9 races, and none were stakes races. He surely wasn't world beater. He didn't win a Grade 1 for a long time...a lot longer then it has taken Lea.

Now, I'm turning the computer off, and going to enjoy the Olympics. Look at the race any way you want, but Lea ran his eyeballs out.

I didn't say a word about Lea. Cigar broke his maiden in a dirt sprint second time out, and he ran very fast doing it. He was then switched to turf next out and didn't see dirt again until switched to Mott for the allowance race in New York. All I was pointing out was that he had run well on dirt in the past, nothing more, nothing less.

[Valuist]

I gave the winner a 117 TimeformUS speed figure. That is not a strong rating for a G1 race for older males.

How about the other Grade 1? What kind of figure did Lochte get?
This could easily be a race that gets downgraded next year.

[ManU918]

Blinkers On, everyone here is glad for those who cash, and congratulates them. As was done for you. I'm glad for you. But now, you're going on and on. Its only one race. One horse won it. And we all know this. You'd do well to realize the same while here at PA.

I'm sorry you lost today, ManU. You'll get another.

Hey I appreciate that... I am gracious in defeat... Things could be worse in life... Although in this moment I am very frustrated because I did like Cigar oops I mean Lea... But in this game you either put up or shut up... and I didn't feel like doubling the price of my ticket. So I sit here with a beer in my hand thinking what I would be doing with the $18,000 had I put up the extra $150.

[cj]

How about the other Grade 1? What kind of figure did Lochte get?
This could easily be a race that gets downgraded next year.

115 for Lochte. He ran very well, but the field was obviously weak. The only past G1 winner was the off form Boisterous.

[Grits]

Hey I appreciate that... I am gracious in defeat... Things could be worse in life... Although in this moment I am very frustrated because I did like Cigar oops I mean Lea... But in this game you either put up or shut up... and I didn't feel like doubling the price of my ticket. So I sit here with a beer in my hand thinking what I would be doing with the $18,000 had I put up the extra $150.

Yes, very gracious; don't drown yourself in that beer. Like I said, you'll make it up!! Quite possibly in Cigar's next race..... LOLOL :lol:

[menifee]

115 for Lochte. He ran very well, but the field was obviously weak. The only past G1 winner was the off form Boisterous.

Boisterous G1 was in name only - that was not a good field.

[ManU918]

Cigar won 2 out of his first 9 races, and none were stakes races. He surely wasn't world beater. He didn't win a Grade 1 for a long time...a lot longer then it has taken Lea.

Now, I'm turning the computer off, and going to enjoy the Olympics. Look at the race any way you want, but Lea ran his eyeballs out.

No one here is saying Lea didn't run one helluva race... But comparing him to Cigar is an absolute joke... Jesus Christ comparing him to Caleb's Posse at this point in his career is a joke.

[ManU918]

Yes, very gracious; don't drown yourself in that beer. Like I said, you'll make it up!! Quite possibly in Cigar's next race..... LOLOL :lol:

LOL maybe now that the Met Mile has been moved to Belmont Day we can replace that race with the Grade 1 Lea Mile on Memorial Day. People get so crazy over one win... I know people get excited when they have a winner and cash a ticket... It is very exciting.. but to compare a horse like Lea to Cigar is like comparing me to David Beckham. We are both white... so maybe we do look alike.

[speed]

Lea proved that off a moderate or slow pace he is a very nice horse. The test of a horse is when things don't set up his way. Can Lea be as good when the pace is fast? Will wait and see. Sure looks to have real ability, so i hope so.

[Valuist]

I was really impressed with Will Take Charge. The race didn't set up for him at all yet he ran his eyeballs out.

[Midnight Cruiser]

I like the #8 Lea for the win.


Nice call :ThmbUp:

[iceknight]

It's two down and about 13 to go for Lea, because I think we may be seeing the horse that can compete with Cigar's great career. It is de juvu that he is out of the Bill Mott barn. I see this horse going on to do great things. He also was thought of as a grass horse, just like Cigar, but has proven he loves the dirt. He has a lot to accomplish before we can say he's the next Cigar, but I have a lot of high hopes for this horse.

This is strictly my opinion, of course, but I see the makings of a star. Whoa whoa... there many many jokes about "opinions" that I've got, but go easy with going gaga over Lea. Yesterday Falling Sky won in near record time going wire to wire.

Lea is a good horse in the 1 to 1 1/8th range - or that's how it seems to me so far. Comparisons to champion horses winning at classic distances is quite the hyperbole at this point.

Aside from this discussion though, I was quite disappointed by Revolutionary's performance.. and he even had a prep race with a win.

[iceknight]

No one here is saying Lea didn't run one helluva race... But comparing him to Cigar is an absolute joke... Jesus Christ comparing him to Caleb's Posse at this point in his career is a joke. Whoa.. What is your problem with Caleb's Posse? That he defeated the next coming of Jesus Uncle Mo? Don't forget he also defeated Shackleford and then had a good rivalry with him eventually!

Don't ever make fun of Caleb's Posse. He was one of my earliest longshot win horses (Amsterdam) and I will always hold him to close to my heart and fight for him :)

>>actually now that I read it again, maybe you are not making fun of Caleb's posse. but I will leave what I typed in there.. as I dont want my post count to go down :lol: Have to do lot of catching up with Tom and SRU

[ManU918]

Whoa.. What is your problem with Caleb's Posse? That he defeated the next coming of Jesus Uncle Mo? Don't forget he also defeated Shackleford and then had a good rivalry with him eventually!

Don't ever make fun of Caleb's Posse. He was one of my earliest longshot win horses (Amsterdam) and I will always hold him to close to my heart and fight for him :)

>>actually now that I read it again, maybe you are not making fun of Caleb's posse. but I will leave what I typed in there.. as I dont want my post count to go down :lol: Have to do lot of catching up with Tom and SRU

I'm not making fun of Caleb's Posse... He was an incredible horse... I was saying that at this point you can't even compare Lea to a horse like Caleb's Posse let alone Cigar.... Caleb's Posse's win in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile was one of my biggest Win bet scores in my life.

[CincyHorseplayer]

115 for Lochte. He ran very well, but the field was obviously weak. The only past G1 winner was the off form Boisterous.

Yeah I thought he would run well off the layoff after having won twice doing so last 2 on turf.I thought there was a little moisture on the turf and he was a G1 winner in a wanting field of such.Had a big exacta with both Summer Front and Lochte.Felt Lochte closing his last in 28 flat and getting the 1 hole would run well but couldn't make that leap with the lack of stakes seasoning.Damnit!

[CincyHorseplayer]

I sat there and didn't lift a finger watching the Donn.In a paceless field Lea looked good but couldn't pull the trigger.About par for the course this weekend!

[NY BRED]

[QUOTE=ManU918]I was alive to over $6,000 to Will Take Charge in the Pick 6... Can't remember to many times I was alive to that type of return on a 7/5 shot in the last leg... Nevertheless the people comparing Lea to Cigar

I can easily relate to this story, in fact I was alive in the AQU pick 5 yesterday
running second and third to Linda, ugh excuse me Taylor, and I had
multiple tix.

I did hedge my bets by placing a daily double bet, cut some, not all of the losses.

You might consider that action when you've bet large moneyinto the
pools and while an "all with all" dd is typically a losing bet, you would have cut a good part of the loss.

That said, I usually hedge with a pick three overlapping the final leg
of the pick 6, which, when available, eases the pain o losing a major
winning wager

Not lecturing, certainly feeling your angst.



[

[classhandicapper]

So Lea is now 3 for 4 on dirt and the one time he lost was the one time I bet him. :rolleyes:

That was a very good performance by Lea yesterday, but I think Will Take Charge is probably still the better horse at this stage. WTC didn't have an ideal trip dropping back before rallying again and trying to close down a fresh horse. I don't think that pace was particularly fast. Uncaptured and Bourbon Courage were among the leaders. They are not speed horses and both also hung around OK relative the rest of the field other than the top 2.

[Investorater]

Kudos to Champion Will Take Charge for finishing 1st or 2nd at multiple racetracks.

The best of luck moving forward in your four-year-old season. :) :ThmbUp: :cool:

[CincyHorseplayer]

I've only played 8 days at GP since the 25th but so far the best bet is a 2nd out horse from anywhere.Now that could include a 50-60 day layoff but a race in December or a race in January over the track,that horse is set to pop wether they won 1st out or not.In these 8 days if evenly matched the 2nd out horse is beating the layoff horse 2 of 3 times.

[raybo]

I've only played 8 days at GP since the 25th but so far the best bet is a 2nd out horse from anywhere.Now that could include a 50-60 day layoff but a race in December or a race in January over the track,that horse is set to pop wether they won 1st out or not.In these 8 days if evenly matched the 2nd out horse is beating the layoff horse 2 of 3 times.

Rod,

Is that something that is abnormal, in your experience? It seems that, regardless of the track you're looking at, a 2nd out horse, over this track, should almost always be a better bet, to win the race, than a horse fresh off a layoff.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Rod,

Is that something that is abnormal, in your experience? It seems that, regardless of the track you're looking at, a 2nd out horse, over this track, should almost always be a better bet, to win the race, than a horse fresh off a layoff.

I realized after I posted that how simple minded it could sound but it was not exclusive merely to an exact 2nd race off a layoff,as in say 2 starts within the last 40 days,but horses who had a race over the track in December and were laid off also are faring better than horses without and laid off.Some fire off the layoff and regress the 2nd time out.It seems that nearly all the trainers are specifically pointing for the win 2nd time over the surface.I've had about 6 turf races where the layoff horses had more dominant numbers than their 2nd out counterparts lifetime efforts up to that point but the edge in conditioning is overriding the better overall ability.It's a fine line.

[raybo]

I realized after I posted that how simple minded it could sound but it was not exclusive merely to an exact 2nd race off a layoff,as in say 2 starts within the last 40 days,but horses who had a race over the track in December and were laid off also are faring better than horses without and laid off.Some fire off the layoff and regress the 2nd time out.It seems that nearly all the trainers are specifically pointing for the win 2nd time over the surface. I've had about 6 turf races where the layoff horses had more dominant numbers than their 2nd out counterparts lifetime efforts up to that point but the edge in conditioning is overriding the better overall ability.It's a fine line.

So, you're talking about horses who have not run on the track this meet, versus horses who have run on the track this meet once, and are now in their 2nd race over the track?

Maybe I'm not understanding, but the above scenario would tend to favor the 2nd time starter over the track, at almost any track, I would think, and not necessarily a physical form issue, but rather a track environment/track surface familiarity issue. I find that 2nd time over the track and surface is always preferable to 1st time over the track and surface, regardless of any layoffs or lack thereof, generally. Of course, current form is always an important factor. And, horses that simply prefer a particular track over another one can throw a monkey wrench into the mix also.

[Robert Fischer]

Some very impressive splits from good horses in a fast race on a fast track.

Lea
1st 5/16ths = 29.43
*last 5/16ths = 29.98

Will Take Charge
1st 5/16ths = 29.68
*last 5/16ths = 29.46


*6.5f - 9f


Anything sub 30 is pretty impressive for the last 5/16ths in a 9 furlongs dirt race.

Will Take Charge's is particularly unusual in that his final 5/16ths was actually faster than his first 5/16ths.

[raybo]

Some very impressive splits from good horses in a fast race on a fast track.

Lea
1st 5/16ths = 29.43
*last 5/16ths = 29.98

Will Take Charge
1st 5/16ths = 29.68
*last 5/16ths = 29.46


*6.5f - 9f


Anything sub 30 is pretty impressive for the last 5/16ths in a 9 furlongs dirt race.

Will Take Charge's is particularly unusual in that his final 5/16ths was actually faster than his first 5/16ths.

Where are you getting these "5/16" times?

[Robert Fischer]

trakus

[CincyHorseplayer]

So, you're talking about horses who have not run on the track this meet, versus horses who have run on the track this meet once, and are now in their 2nd race over the track?

Maybe I'm not understanding, but the above scenario would tend to favor the 2nd time starter over the track, at almost any track, I would think, and not necessarily a physical form issue, but rather a track environment/track surface familiarity issue. I find that 2nd time over the track and surface is always preferable to 1st time over the track and surface, regardless of any layoffs or lack thereof, generally. Of course, current form is always an important factor. And, horses that simply prefer a particular track over another one can throw a monkey wrench into the mix also.

I've never seen it this pronounced short term.In the class profiles I keep I have a column for shippers including what start they are winning after shipping.Usually this will coincide with a 3rd start shipping or with any start coinciding with a class drop.Layoff shippers dropping were winning a lot 6 weeks ago.3rd starters either haven't got there or are producing below normal levels.2nd start shippers are dominant.That is usually not the norm to be that exact start.And they are beating faster,more accomplished horses.The Donn a perfect example.

[senortout]

Those trakus figures only point out why Lea won. Will Take Charge got badly beaten in the middle....the half mile between the two 5/16 splits....If he coulda kept up he'd a won. But he couldn't, and he didn't. His jockey was probably hoping someone else could stay with Lea. And, of course, no one did. It's been suggested by someone that the next Cigar is on view. That may not be the case. But I'd take Lea until he proves he cannot repeat such an effort.

[taxicab]

Will Take Charge is all racehorse.
He's an old school type,no getting around it.
In 2013 he raced 11 times.
He appeared to be getting better as the year went on.
He doesn't have to carry his track around with him.
His last 10 races have been at 9 different tracks.
Even when D.Wayne gave him a slight layoff between the Clark and the Donn (about 9 weeks), he put 7 works into WTC.
WTC is thriving on his heavy workload.
What's even more impressive about this guy is he's sired by Unbridled's Song.
Just about everything sired by Unbridled's Song is fragile.
His MO as a sire is his sons and daughters don't last long on the track, and are retired early due to injury.
The last of Unbridled's Song's noteworthy sons were Zensational/Graydar/Cross Traffic, they raced a combined 20 times before injuries forced them into early retirement.
As good as WTC looked charging down the lane yesterday, they might not beat him the rest of the year.
He's a star.

[letswastemoney]

Those trakus figures only point out why Lea won. Will Take Charge got badly beaten in the middle....the half mile between the two 5/16 splits....If he coulda kept up he'd a won. But he couldn't, and he didn't. His jockey was probably hoping someone else could stay with Lea. And, of course, no one did. It's been suggested by someone that the next Cigar is on view. That may not be the case. But I'd take Lea until he proves he cannot repeat such an effort.
In dirt racing, the move on the far turn is what wins the good majority of those races. People become wowed by the late runs closers make at the end, but those horses are outrun on the far turn and that's why they lose.

ex. Fashion Plate and Streaming holding off Arethusa

[Thebigguy]

In dirt racing, the move on the far turn is what wins the good majority of those races. People become wowed by the late runs closers make at the end, but those horses are outrun on the far turn and that's why they lose.

ex. Fashion Plate and Streaming holding off Arethusa

Crappy example IMO.
Arethusa is not very good, at all.

[Stillriledup]

Crappy example IMO.
Arethusa is not very good, at all.
That's not what he's suggesting. He's saying that people might be wowed by a late run of a horse like Arethusa when in reality, they shouldnt be so wowed. Unless i'm interpreting his post wrong, he's not suggesting Arethusa is good, he just used her as an example of a mistake a handicapper might make.

[Thebigguy]

That's not what he's suggesting. He's saying that people might be wowed by a late run of a horse like Arethusa when in reality, they shouldnt be so wowed. Unless i'm interpreting his post wrong, he's not suggesting Arethusa is good, he just used her as an example of a mistake a handicapper might make.


I guess I read it wrong. Either way it still seems like a contradiction from him. I have read where he says most dirt races are speed biased and won by horses on the front end. Now its In dirt racing, the move on the far turn is what wins the good majority of those races
Those are two totally different things.

[letswastemoney]

I guess I read it wrong. Either way it still seems like a contradiction from him. I have read where he says most dirt races are speed biased and won by horses on the front end. Now its In dirt racing, the move on the far turn is what wins the good majority of those races
Those are two totally different things.
Hystericalady, Rachel Alexandra. Most speed horses do win dirt races, and they run their fastest part on the far turn and slow down in the stretch.

[classhandicapper]

I think you have to differentiate between the "suck up" close and the "legitimate close".

The "suck up" close is a horse that was never in position to win and just made a very late move to pick up the tired horses that were exhausted because they engaged in the race and actually tried to win.

The "legitimate close" is a horse that made a middle move to get into contention and then had a second run to finish well in the stretch. (of course the middle move should be while the race is still pretty hot, not a race that's falling apart because of an extreme pace).

[cj]

Those trakus figures only point out why Lea won. Will Take Charge got badly beaten in the middle....the half mile between the two 5/16 splits....If he coulda kept up he'd a won. But he couldn't, and he didn't. His jockey was probably hoping someone else could stay with Lea. And, of course, no one did. It's been suggested by someone that the next Cigar is on view. That may not be the case. But I'd take Lea until he proves he cannot repeat such an effort.

Did you watch the race? There is a reason the horse was slower in that part of the race.

[Valuist]

Those trakus figures only point out why Lea won. Will Take Charge got badly beaten in the middle....the half mile between the two 5/16 splits....If he coulda kept up he'd a won. But he couldn't, and he didn't. His jockey was probably hoping someone else could stay with Lea. And, of course, no one did. It's been suggested by someone that the next Cigar is on view. That may not be the case. But I'd take Lea until he proves he cannot repeat such an effort.

Lea is going to have to prove he can handle adversity. On the dirt, he hasn't had to. He's had two great trips. He beat a real good horse but under the circumstances, it really wasn't surprising.