Mimicking Whales

[Robert Goren]

I have read the whale watching tread in the Harness section with some interest. It got me to thinking(always dangerous to my pocketbook). It seems that a lot of the time you can pretty well guess how the odds are going to change after the bell. The assumption being that most of this movement at least on the short priced horses is caused by whale money. Is it possible to become good enough at guessing at what they are going to do that the small bettor can make few bucks with smaller rebates by mimicking their actions?

[Robert Fischer]

That is an interesting question.

The short answer is going to be something like: "No. Even if you managed to somehow either identify, or predict? whale action, and were then able to successfully mimic it, you would lose an amount slightly less than the difference between the whale's rebate and your own."

It gets more interesting, if you think you are able to out-perform the total sample of whale-action by being more selective.

[jk3521]

A new meaning to "Whale Watching". :)

[pondman]

I have read the whale watching tread in the Harness section with some interest. It got me to thinking(always dangerous to my pocketbook). It seems that a lot of the time you can pretty well guess how the odds are going to change after the bell. The assumption being that most of this movement at least on the short priced horses is caused by whale money. Is it possible to become good enough at guessing at what they are going to do that the small bettor can make few bucks with smaller rebates by mimicking their actions?

Ultimate is doing some interesting work on movement of the pool. You have to rate fairly high with Geek skills, and have a dungeon to work in, but it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't start making some serious money.

I'd suggest another way, and that is trying to predicting how the large pool crowd is going to play. The crowd seems to blow it, and give you the +$12 horses, on specific types of races. I believe the higher end of racing is the spot to play. Most of the contemporary beliefs don't hold up from Allowance on up. You still have to go back to the old school class authors to play Grade I races.

[thaskalos]

I have read the whale watching tread in the Harness section with some interest. It got me to thinking(always dangerous to my pocketbook). It seems that a lot of the time you can pretty well guess how the odds are going to change after the bell. The assumption being that most of this movement at least on the short priced horses is caused by whale money. Is it possible to become good enough at guessing at what they are going to do that the small bettor can make few bucks with smaller rebates by mimicking their actions?
This seems like it would be pretty easy to prove.

Would any of the people who claim to be able to predict how the odds will change after the bell, care to actually demonstrate this skill to the rest of us?

No elaborate explanations are necessary, or the revealing of any "secrets". Just give us the closing odds on some of the horses...without the usual back-fitting and the excuses.

IMO...predicting the late action is a lot more difficult than it's made out to be. We remember the times that we are proven right...but tend to ignore the times that we are proven wrong.

[lamboguy]

This seems like it would be pretty easy to prove.

Would any of the people who claim to be able to predict how the odds will change after the bell, care to actually demonstrate this skill to the rest of us?

No elaborate explanations are necessary, or the revealing of any "secrets". Just give us the closing odds on some of the horses...without the usual back-fitting and the excuses.

IMO...predicting the late action is a lot more difficult than it's made out to be. We remember the times that we are proven right...but tend to ignore the times that we are proven wrong.i have an odds model for every race on the continent. i don't have the time to type what i believe will be the odds between in the gate and out of the gate. but if you want to learn something about odds movements, you can call me one day right at post your eyeballs will be doing a dagio dance after one day of this.

[thaskalos]

i have an odds model for every race on the continent. i don't have the time to type what i believe will be the odds between in the gate and out of the gate. but if you want to learn something about odds movements, you can call me one day right at post your eyeballs will be doing a dagio dance after one day of this.
Please send me your phone number, Lambo...I'd like to do that. It's never too late to learn something new.

Thanks.

[Dave Schwartz]

They wager late.

You will not see the money until after you have wagered. (Nor will they see yours.)

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I believe Traynor's posts in the harness section on whale watching are very interesting - "advanced tote analysis", if you will. Although my first thought was that the small pools of Dover Downs can't reveal the wagering patterns of the Whales, I certainly can see that the noble sport of the jugheads (harness) provides the backdrop to be able to calculate very accurate odds lines, and code the wagering to that.

IMHO, thoroughbreds are much more difficult to predict, and therefore tracking the wagering and trying to identify the differences between "public", "barn", Whales, etc., is also more difficult. While wagering on a 4-5 shot in harness racing may produce long-term profits, I'm skeptical that approach can be as successful with thoroughbreds - on low odds horses the whales wouldn't be leaving much meat on the bone.

I can believe that more accurate modeling of the FINAL odds of thoroughbreds can be done as Lambo indicates, and predicting the movement from the opening flashes to loading in the gate through to the closed pool isn't that difficult - but trying to figure out the source of those wagers is not so easy.

Of the thoroughbred tracks I play on a regular basis, only Woodbine seems to have those frequent late "steam" winners, and I suppose that is partially due to their longer meet, predictable consistency between turf and AWT, and a more stable horse, jockey and trainer population - kind of like harness.....

[Stillriledup]

They wager late.

You will not see the money until after you have wagered. (Nor will they see yours.)

Shouldnt they wager early? If you bet 10 to win on 1-5 shot types, isnt it better to bet early and let the public "adjust" the odds rather than pound the mone in at the last second and get a 2.10 or 2.20 win price? if you bet early the horse can drift to 2.40 or 2.60 with other bettors betting on the overlays.

[thaskalos]

Shouldnt they wager early? If you bet 10 to win on 1-5 shot types, isnt it better to bet early and let the public "adjust" the odds rather than pound the mone in at the last second and get a 2.10 or 2.20 win price? if you bet early the horse can drift to 2.40 or 2.60 with other bettors betting on the overlays.
SRU, the whale trainer. :)

[Dave Schwartz]

Shouldnt they wager early? If you bet 10 to win on 1-5 shot types, isnt it better to bet early and let the public "adjust" the odds rather than pound the mone in at the last second and get a 2.10 or 2.20 win price? if you bet early the horse can drift to 2.40 or 2.60 with other bettors betting on the overlays.

You cannot wager that much early.

[MutuelClerk]

I wait on a "whale" every weekend. Has the room to himself. He bet 90k on Saturday. 70k yesterday. About average. Last year on BC Saturday in eight hours time the guy bet 140k. Amazing to watch. Just don't mess up the punch. No pressure.

[woodtoo]

Is he a big tipper?

[MutuelClerk]

Depends. On a degenerate scale of 1-10. He's close to a 10. But when he really crushes he's been pretty cool. He hit a pick6 a few years ago for almost 200k. That was a very good day for me. There's times when he "only" makes about 10k in a day. You would think he lost. For most of us a 10k day at the track is one of those days we'll never forget. It's hard to expect anything when a guy loses 50k in a day. Somedays he's left me a lot less than I expected. Other days more than I thought. Hard guy to read. On a tipping scale I'd say about a 7. On days he crushes though he's closer to a 9. We have a good working relationship. I have no complaints.

[Dave Schwartz]

I wait on a "whale" every weekend. Has the room to himself. He bet 90k on Saturday. 70k yesterday. About average. Last year on BC Saturday in eight hours time the guy bet 140k. Amazing to watch. Just don't mess up the punch. No pressure.

Not a "whale," just a "big fish."

Maybe a halibut.

[pondman]

I wait on a "whale" every weekend. Has the room to himself. He bet 90k on Saturday. 70k yesterday. About average. Last year on BC Saturday in eight hours time the guy bet 140k. Amazing to watch. Just don't mess up the punch. No pressure.

Why doesn't he have a terminal at his house?

[MutuelClerk]

The nicest way of saying it I guess is he probably isn't computer friendly. He bets a rotation of tracks where his win bets and exacta bets wont influence the board. Usually NY, FLA, CAL, KY, TOR, nearly every race. Turn the page and fire. Rarely prepared. Action. He craves it.

I think he actually handicaps decently. But I believe in the theory that you can beat one race but not the races. In those cases it's hard to win. Someday I'm sure he'll prove them wrong. I just hope I'm punching for him when/if he does. ( He wont).

[pondman]

I think he actually handicaps decently. But I believe in the theory that you can beat one race but not the races. In those cases it's hard to win. .

Doesn't sound systematic-- if he's turning pages, and no conditional betting. I saw MC Hammer throwing money like this for awhile...