Gate to Wire derby winners

[Smarty Cide]

Who was the last gate to wire front running derby winner? how many has there been?

[horses4courses]

War Emblem was the most recent wire to wire KY Derby winner.
Go For Gin didn't make this list, but he came awfully close to doing it in '94.
Seems 22 horses have done it.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u64720/Running%20Style%20(2013).pdf

[Smarty Cide]

thats a cool chart. find it interesting how few were not 1 or 2 at 8th pole in 2 previous races to derby.... that will help me toss a few this year :ThmbUp:

[letswastemoney]

The first quarter either has to be very close to 23 seconds, or 23 seconds or higher for it to happen. It's not impossible, considering what happened last year. Mentally, jockeys will be petrified of another extreme meltdown.

[Smarty Cide]

guess its safe to say if Samraat is in the gate on the first sat of May he will give it a shot...


Still think War Pass could of done it had he not gotten hurt

[BlueChip@DRF]

thats a cool chart. find it interesting how few were not 1 or 2 at 8th pole in 2 previous races to derby.... that will help me toss a few this year :ThmbUp:

That angle is nearly 100% since 1992. All you need is for them to be first or second at the eighth pole in only one of the previous last two races.

[Robert Fischer]

not exactly gate-to-wire , but related as far as "race shape" ideas go:

The solid speed horse that can lead into the stretch, - and then hang on for 2nd.
These types can outrun their odds(they won a moderate battle for the lead showing quality and getting a pretty good trip in the process, while the chasers often are in the 'fray'). Then you have your group of 'best' horses who you use on top of those types.

I don't have the sharp memory right now, or the time to look it up but the Hard Spun / Street Sense,Curlin.. example is pretty much a text book example.

Not sure if I remember correctly but the Bodemeister/ I'll Have Another may have been that same race-type as well.

obviously extreme paces like palace malice / Orb are totally different race types.

[Smarty Cide]

That angle is nearly 100% since 1992. All you need is for them to be first or second at the eighth pole in only one of the previous last two races.

how many horses did not do that last year?

[BlueChip@DRF]

how many horses did not do that last year?

Six.
Golden Soul, 2nd
Normandy Invasion, 4th
Will Take Charge, 8th
Overanalyze, 11th
Java's War, 13th
Frac Daddy, 16th

[Smarty Cide]

pretty good. its nice when you can eliminate 25% of the field with 1 rule

[BlueChip@DRF]

pretty good. its nice when you can eliminate 25% of the field with 1 rule

Only for the top spot. I wouldn't throw out the eliminated for the exacta spot, though. You'll get good prices.

2012: 5
2011: 5 Dialed In was one of them
2010: 5 Lookin At Lucky was one of them
2009: 6 Mine That Bird was NOT one of them
2008: 5
2007: 3
2006: 4
2005: 4 Giacomo was NOT one of them
2004: 7 the top 4 highest last-out BSF completed the superfecta
2003: 6