need swift response

[senortout]

Race 3 few minutes, #1 Seeking The Sherif.......did R.Mandella lose his bet when having this one claimed so cheaply off'n him?....trying to justify a wager, as this one seems to have come off a long layoff in tip-top shape.

Was he playing a bluff and Ellis took him up on it, seeing a sound animal ready to win again?

thanks

[cj]

I don't think that is really the kind of game a guy like Mandella would play. Maiden win was 20k, so 12k against winners seems about right.

[cj]

Not to mention, horse has two long layoffs, clearly has physical issues.

[senortout]

thanks for that, assuming the horse is sound, as per your ideas on the subject. I might add that this is no 'push-over' type field of 32 - 28 claimers, IMHO.

[dasch]

Race 3 few minutes, #1 Seeking The Sherif.......did R.Mandella lose his bet when having this one claimed so cheaply off'n him?....trying to justify a wager, as this one seems to have come off a long layoff in tip-top shape.

Was he playing a bluff and Ellis took him up on it, seeing a sound animal ready to win again?

thanks

I would say he definitely has some issues that are ok as of now.

Working well and $$ showing up. Ellis horses run well in these spots.

That said this is a pretty tough field.

[senortout]

thanks for that Dasch. I have to think the issues are behind this one for the moment at least.

[senortout]

Solid race fractions, solid race for the Sherif, no disgrace taking second w/this group. Hope you backed him up big time.

[Stillriledup]

I didnt like this horse in this particular race just on the idea that he beat such a weak group last time, but in general, when a smart trainer raises a horse in class like this off a big win, there's probably a good chance the horse came out of the race sound and is in good shape, Ellis is no dummy if they "hated" the claim after they got him back to the barn, they would place him in a much easier race.

[senortout]

What's the over/under on a claim by the original connections, or someone else?

what are the real odds that Sherif is claimed from this race?

I really appreciated the quick responses. I bet the horse.

[Stillriledup]

What's the over/under on a claim by the original connections, or someone else?

what are the real odds that Sherif is claimed from this race?

I really appreciated the quick responses. I bet the horse.

I see people claim horses back all the time, but there's only a small chance a horse like this would be claimed back for 20k more than the people lost him for.

[senortout]

Well, if the horse goes back to original connections, I think we'd have to rethink Mr. Mandela in the future. At least, that's how I'd interpret such a move.

I predicate this conclusion on the assumption that he, unlike others, would not start an unsound thoroughbred. I know that much about the man.

[senortout]

I just saw the early chart, put up on Twinspires, looks like no takers on the Sherif. So that was a good spot for Ellis to run him back. Now he can drop a notch and play the game all over again, in a few weeks, I'd think. (Earned 7000 on the 2nd place finish)

[maclr11]

Why would Mandella possibly want this animal back. How many claimers do you see Mandella keep around for a longtime. Diamond A has lots of horses and they were cutting their losses by winning a couple races and dropping him in. Let his problems be someone else's. I'm sure this horse has an issue that for the time being was sound enough to run on, but would hinder him again in the future. This isn't Peter Miller or one of the claiming guys. You can count on one hand the older claimers Mandella has that aren't maidens or 50k and up.

[senortout]

Understood, Mac. Good point!