PDA

View Full Version : Bombs away S&P?


Tape Reader
01-29-2014, 08:26 PM
Bombs away S&P?

I see a potential drop in the /ES (S&P) to approximately 1729 very soon. Home grown stuff. Anyone else?

badcompany
01-29-2014, 10:56 PM
Looks like SPY is gonna break the 100 day SMA. Last two two times this happened the market rallied.

Not making any predictions. Just sayin'.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/b2c3eb52a0a614af522ee66d0bac38d2_zps63105d44.jpg

Saratoga_Mike
01-30-2014, 07:50 PM
TR, what did you think of today's price action? thx

Tape Reader
01-30-2014, 08:35 PM
TR, what did you think of today's price action? thx

I have no excuse for my call. I bought puts at the opening. “News” is never a factor in my analysis, but I know it happens. Still short.

Saratoga_Mike
01-31-2014, 09:25 AM
I have no excuse for my call. I bought puts at the opening. “News” is never a factor in my analysis, but I know it happens. Still short.

Sorry, my post wasn't meant as a criticism at all. You made a nice call about 10 days ago on the divergence (cash vs futures mkt), and I was wondering if you thought yesterday's rally was legit (today's futures say no). Good luck.

sammy the sage
01-31-2014, 09:27 AM
I have no excuse for my call. I bought puts at the opening. “News” is never a factor in my analysis, but I know it happens. Still short.

looks like you'll be fine...b.o.l....I'm no longer involved..

RaceBookJoe
01-31-2014, 09:58 AM
Decent fight in the 1764 area, even if it gets back above I can see a sell maybe midday into the close. If 1760 fails, things could get ugly fast. Some etf's to trade if you don't trade futures, UVXY,VXX make decent moves, Nat gas ( /NG ) has been wild recently, best etf for that would probably be UGAZ. best of luck

Tape Reader
01-31-2014, 11:33 AM
Sorry, my post wasn't meant as a criticism at all. You made a nice call about 10 days ago on the divergence (cash vs futures mkt), and I was wondering if you thought yesterday's rally was legit (today's futures say no). Good luck.

Please, I apologize if I sounded that way. There was absolutely no sarcasm meant.

RaceBookJoe
01-31-2014, 12:22 PM
/ES testing 1780 at the moment , been a bit of a wild day so far.

Tape Reader
01-31-2014, 06:52 PM
looks like you'll be fine...b.o.l....I'm no longer involved..

I sold my puts in the morning when the market failed to make a new low. Resilient market to say the least.

badcompany
02-03-2014, 11:03 AM
Feb is starting off the same way as Jan. Yuck.

JBmadera
02-03-2014, 11:44 AM
been watching 1770 on the /ES, broke today with some vol, unless it bounces back up by the close my targets are 46, 22, then 88-00

RaceBookJoe
02-03-2014, 12:05 PM
Beautiful moves on /ES and UVXY today

RaceBookJoe
02-03-2014, 03:05 PM
40pt move from high to low so far

Valuist
02-03-2014, 03:35 PM
Beginning of the end?

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2014/2/2_Egon_von_Greyerz_files/Egon%20von%20Greyerz%202%3A2%3A2014.mp3

badcompany
02-03-2014, 04:51 PM
Plummeted through the 100 day sma. Next few days should be interesting.

This year has been brutal, so far.

One theory is that many Hedge fund were under-invested in equities, got on board at the end of 2013, and this is an effort to shake them out.

RaceBookJoe
02-03-2014, 09:21 PM
We also have the job # coming on Friday, lets see how the weather affected jobs this month ;)

badcompany
02-03-2014, 11:15 PM
We also have the job # coming on Friday, lets see how the weather affected jobs this month ;)

This is a worldwide selloff. Look at the Nikkei. IMO, this is bigger than some weekly economic indicator.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/null_zpsd1c7c71b.png

PaceAdvantage
02-04-2014, 03:23 AM
Beginning of the end?

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2014/2/2_Egon_von_Greyerz_files/Egon%20von%20Greyerz%202%3A2%3A2014.mp3It's been the beginning of the end forever. When it actually IS the beginning of the end, you're not going to much care at the end... :lol:

So who cares? :lol: :lol:

sammy the sage
02-04-2014, 08:23 AM
It's been the beginning of the end forever. When it actually IS the beginning of the end, you're not going to much care at the end... :lol:

So who cares? :lol: :lol:

Well now we know why they're bankers jumping now don't we...

By the way...not stating this a fact...(you know...heard from cousin's best friend sister type)...but a supplier's driver saying that they cut off LOWE's deliveries of material for not paying...IF true....just wow...

Almost makes me want to dabble again...not...

PaceAdvantage
02-04-2014, 09:58 AM
Well now we know why they're bankers jumping now don't we...We do?

Robert Goren
02-04-2014, 10:15 AM
This market was past due for drop. I see maybe 20%, If it goes much lower than that, things are going to get really bad again. The key is the banks. How much can they take before they start to crumble. Nobody know the answer to that for sure. But we all have our opinions. If you have a strong opinion and the money, now would be a good time to back that opinion. A lot of money is going to be won or lost in the next few months.

Valuist
02-04-2014, 11:05 AM
It's been the beginning of the end forever. When it actually IS the beginning of the end, you're not going to much care at the end... :lol:

:lol: :lol:

And why is that? Its relatively speaking. The world will still go on.

And your first comment is flat out incorrect. Since March 2009, we've seen nothing but an uptrend. The 50 day moving average had been violated a number of times but the 200 day moving average hasn't been negative for anything more than a couple days. It STILL is intact but we'll see as it gets closer to being violated.

Saratoga_Mike
02-04-2014, 11:34 AM
By the way...not stating this a fact...(you know...heard from cousin's best friend sister type)...but a supplier's driver saying that they cut off LOWE's deliveries of material for not paying...IF true....just wow...

Almost makes me want to dabble again...not...

One of the funniest posts I've seen in sometime. If Lowes isn't paying, they must have an issue with the supplier or they're managing working capital.

Saratoga_Mike
02-04-2014, 11:35 AM
It's been the beginning of the end forever. When it actually IS the beginning of the end, you're not going to much care at the end... :lol:

So who cares? :lol: :lol:

Exactly right! It's like those buying gold b/c they predict a breakdown in society....hey that could happen, but what good will the gold be?

Valuist
02-04-2014, 11:50 AM
Exactly right! It's like those buying gold b/c they predict a breakdown in society....hey that could happen, but what good will the gold be?

It will be worth a lot more than useless dollars and stock certificates.

Saratoga_Mike
02-04-2014, 12:14 PM
It will be worth a lot more than useless dollars and stock certificates.

Wouldn't a rural farm and guns be more useful than gold?

RaceBookJoe
02-04-2014, 12:16 PM
Lots of fighting at the /ES 1747-48 level today

badcompany
02-04-2014, 12:22 PM
And why is that? Its relatively speaking. The world will still go on.

And your first comment is flat out incorrect. Since March 2009, we've seen nothing but an uptrend. The 50 day moving average had been violated a number of times but the 200 day moving average hasn't been negative for anything more than a couple days. It STILL is intact but we'll see as it gets closer to being violated.

Back in 2011, you had a 19% drop in the S&P which not only took out the 200 day but the 500 & 1000 day, as well. That was an extremely sharp downtown which plummeted through every major trendline and did so a number of times.

Valuist
02-04-2014, 12:54 PM
Well now we know why they're bankers jumping now don't we...

By the way...not stating this a fact...(you know...heard from cousin's best friend sister type)...but a supplier's driver saying that they cut off LOWE's deliveries of material for not paying...IF true....just wow...

Almost makes me want to dabble again...not...

Interesting. My company just signed a deal with Lowe's for a big shipment later in the year. Just because a company is public and appears healthy, doesn't mean they can't be a problem child when it comes to payments.

Valuist
02-04-2014, 01:03 PM
Back in 2011, you had a 19% drop in the S&P which not only took out the 200 day but the 500 & 1000 day, as well. That was an extremely sharp downtown which plummeted through every major trendline and did so a number of times.

True. Forgot about that. And that fall helped trigger QE3, or QE-Infinity. Have to wonder what would've happened to the markets if they didn't go that route.

PaceAdvantage
02-04-2014, 03:08 PM
And why is that? Its relatively speaking. The world will still go on.

And your first comment is flat out incorrect. Since March 2009, we've seen nothing but an uptrend. The 50 day moving average had been violated a number of times but the 200 day moving average hasn't been negative for anything more than a couple days. It STILL is intact but we'll see as it gets closer to being violated.Incorrect? Flat out incorrect? How so?

People have been predicting doom and gloom (the end) since the beginning of time, in one way or another. The stock market is just another venue for that sort of thinking.

When the beginning of the actual end gets here, you'll know it...trust me...all these false prophets make me laugh.

Valuist
02-04-2014, 03:19 PM
Incorrect? Flat out incorrect? How so?

People have been predicting doom and gloom (the end) since the beginning of time, in one way or another. The stock market is just another venue for that sort of thinking.

When the beginning of the actual end gets here, you'll know it...trust me...all these false prophets make me laugh.

When I meant the "end", I meant where the secular bull market becomes a secular bear market. Not the end of the world.

PaceAdvantage
02-04-2014, 03:23 PM
When I meant the "end", I meant where the secular bull market becomes a secular bear market. Not the end of the world.My apologies are in order then. I read your words and saw the link to the kingworld site, and thought you meant "the end" as in "the end" that all the gold buyers are preparing for...not necessarily the end of the world.

Or perhaps those are one and the same? :lol:

BlueShoe
02-04-2014, 03:35 PM
Have we had our much anticipated widely predicted overdue correction? Not hardly, imo, we may still have quite a ways to go on the downside. Many on this forum are technicians that study their charts closely, but as a fundamentalist, my opinion is that this market moved way too fast for too long, and that a reality check is in order. As I type these words the market is up today. Typical dead cat bounce?

Valuist
02-04-2014, 04:01 PM
Peter Schiff on the gold market:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000242573&__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Cvideo%7C&par=yahoo

Tape Reader
02-04-2014, 10:51 PM
Incorrect? Flat out incorrect? How so?

People have been predicting doom and gloom (the end) since the beginning of time, in one way or another. The stock market is just another venue for that sort of thinking.

When the beginning of the actual end gets here, you'll know it...trust me...all these false prophets make me laugh.

How will we know? Seriously. I think that the stock market will telegraph it, if it’s going to happen. Not the end of life on Earth, but the end of the economy.

Enter: New World Order.

lamboguy
02-05-2014, 01:50 AM
Peter Schiff on the gold market:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000242573&__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Cvideo%7C&par=yahooschiff is nothing but a cheerleader. i got gold making some big upwards moves this but not until the second half of the year. new lows in the metal are are close now. i have been trying to accumulate junior gold miners now. its not that easy, thats why i am starting early. many of them seem to be off the bottom. the problem that i have been running into is that these things have very little liquidity in them. some of the juniors that i like trade less than 20,000 shares a day. in cheeper stocks that can turn out to be less than half of what a normal position is for me. the better to seniors have already left the station like AEM, GG, GOLD, FNV. i am going to try to get into NGD wednesday, even though earnings come out before the bell thursday and that could move the stock in either direction. i am following over 500 of these things now. the main criteria that i use is for them to have a good balance sheet.

barn32
02-05-2014, 09:30 AM
Tuna Fish

Tuna fish has a twelve year shelf life--perhaps more. I'm stocking up on tuna fish, because when the end comes people will want and need food more than anything else. You can't eat gold or paper money.

Buy tuna fish now while it's cheap and you will be "golden" when the end really comes.

badcompany
02-05-2014, 07:41 PM
Plummeted through the 100 day sma. Next few days should be interesting.

This year has been brutal, so far.

One theory is that many Hedge fund were under-invested in equities, got on board at the end of 2013, and this is an effort to shake them out.

A bit of evidence for the Hedge fund shakeout theory. Green Mountain Coffee up 50% as a result of new partnership with Coke.

This stock has been heavily shorted by Hedge Fund billionaire David Einhorn.


http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/100af6afeb5d6f6191c3faeec63da532_zps64db1af9.jpg

Procefus
02-06-2014, 11:50 AM
The Trend is Your Friend

RaceBookJoe
02-06-2014, 12:44 PM
Great /ES move today so far, job # tomorrow should add some volatility too.

RaceBookJoe
02-06-2014, 12:47 PM
The Trend is Your Friend

While mostly true in general, you still have to know the trend during your trading timeframe..and you need to be trading the correct plays that are moving in that trend. There are usually multiple trends going on at the same time.

Valuist
02-06-2014, 02:44 PM
The Trend is Your Friend

And today, the trend is NOT Twitter's friend.

badcompany
02-06-2014, 06:37 PM
:lol: And today, the trend is NOT Twitter's friend.

There was actually a trend of many of the best performing stocks to have a sharp pullback on earnings.

I mentioned that I own GILD which was at it's all time high when they reported, yesterday. I was tempted to sell and buy it back after the hit, which turned out to be 5%, but I didn't pull the trigger. Oh, well.

Valuist
02-07-2014, 10:37 AM
:lol:

There was actually a trend of many of the best performing stocks to have a sharp pullback on earnings.

I mentioned that I own GILD which was at it's all time high when they reported, yesterday. I was tempted to sell and buy it back after the hit, which turned out to be 5%, but I didn't pull the trigger. Oh, well.

And TWTR got the predictable dead cat bounce yesterday. But that chart is really broken. Could be shortable down to the IPO level.

RaceBookJoe
02-07-2014, 10:55 AM
Huge /ES move after jobs #, about 7pt drop since top.

badcompany
02-07-2014, 04:20 PM
The headline for days like this is invariably:

"The Market 'Shrugged Off' Bad Economic Data..."

It sounds better than:

"The Market Rallied off a Sh**ty Jobs Report."

Saratoga_Mike
02-07-2014, 04:21 PM
The headline for days like this is invariably:

"The Market 'Shrugged Off' Bad Economic Data..."

It sounds better than:

"The Market Rallied off a Sh**ty Jobs Report."

Ck out the Household Survey --- numbers were very strong.

badcompany
02-07-2014, 05:42 PM
Ck out the Household Survey --- numbers were very strong.

The payroll number is the biggie, and it stunk the place up. Everyone over estimated the number, yet the market rallied. IMO, the technical position of the market will always trump economic data.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/E14C2F02-A8C9-42F1-89D0-E4C452D93F39-811-000000B3DE76E853_zps2a4b9a53.jpg

Tape Reader
02-07-2014, 08:07 PM
The payroll number is the biggie, and it stunk the place up. Everyone over estimated the number, yet the market rallied. IMO, the technical position of the market will always trump economic data.

Absolutely agree. This is often demonstrated when supposedly bad news hits a strong stock and also when supposedly good news hits a weak stock. It becomes like an open book test. Use it to your advantage.

lamboguy
02-07-2014, 08:42 PM
it certainly looks like those gold miners are breaking out ahead of the actual gold. after getting pounded to submission, some of them are up 50% in a month.

badcompany
02-08-2014, 10:04 AM
it certainly looks like those gold miners are breaking out ahead of the actual gold. after getting pounded to submission, some of them are up 50% in a month.

They've had a bump, but, stepping back, it's hard to make a case, at this point, that Gold Miners are in a LONG TERM uptrend.

As an aside, I didn't realize this ETF did such crazy volume.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/dafbb94e67a96a8b3a087a552b86415c_zps0910e2e2.jpg

Saratoga_Mike
02-08-2014, 04:30 PM
The payroll number is the biggie, and it stunk the place up. Everyone over estimated the number, yet the market rallied. IMO, the technical position of the market will always trump economic data.

[]

The article you posted contains the unemployment rate - that's calculated from the household survey. Granted the household survey, which is released along with the establishment (payroll) survey, is more volatile. It's also information rich. And it was actually a pretty darn good report, especially the grouping of people out of work by duration (fewer in long-term unemployed group and more in the short-term group). Income growth was still unimpressive, though. I still believe trendline job growth is 200k/month. High-frequency indicators (e.g., weekly claims) support that assertion. In the next few months, my bet is you'll see a huge snap back in the headline payroll number -- 250k to 300k. That number will overstate the health of the economy, just as the recent numbers have understated it.

badcompany
02-08-2014, 07:24 PM
Mike,

From my understanding, unemployment extensions are no longer being granted. Would this not influence the length of time people are out of work, as people are accepting jobs they would not have taken if the extension were available?

Saratoga_Mike
02-09-2014, 03:58 PM
Mike,

From my understanding, unemployment extensions are no longer being granted. Would this not influence the length of time people are out of work, as people are accepting jobs they would not have taken if the extension were available?

Right - the federal extension piece. However, the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more has declined steadily over the past yr (from 4.7 mm in Jan 2013 to 3.6 mm in Jan 2014). That number declined from 3.9 mm in Dec 2013 to 3.6 mm in Jan 2014**, which I believe is the period when the federal extension ended (need to check the exact dates). I don't think the measurement period for the household survey would have captured a lot of this impact (i.e., "I better take any job my unemployment is going away), but I really need to check the exact dates. In any case, it's still an encouraging sign, in my opinion. I still believe the economy is performing below its potential, weighed down by too much leverage in the system, slack demand (tied to too much leverage) and unfriendly federal policies.

**I don't put too much weight on one month's numbers

badcompany
02-10-2014, 05:48 PM
SO FAR, we're following the same pattern as the last three shakeouts: pull back until the 100day sma is breached then rally quickly.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/E3E7104F-5A19-438D-AC95-3FD3C3ADA9C7-1417-000001D09EDAB39E_zps2ab14d1a.jpg

lamboguy
02-10-2014, 05:53 PM
everyday different gold miners are breaking out, and the gold contract still looks very weak. i have some junior miners that have doubled since the start of the year. they still look like have some juice underneath them. i am getting ready to peal off the principle and let the rest run.

badcompany
02-10-2014, 07:29 PM
everyday different gold miners are breaking out, and the gold contract still looks very weak. i have some junior miners that have doubled since the start of the year. they still look like have some juice underneath them. i am getting ready to peal off the principle and let the rest run.

This one fits my criteria: dramatic outperforming of the market as well as the industry, 4 billion market cap & 1 million volume a day.

I'll put a stop at 55, where the last breakout took place. If the move is for real, it's shouldn't revisit that level.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/BAB8299E-7788-4538-8DB0-91D827A99C9F-1417-000001DC021F46D4_zps2ebfcca2.jpg

badcompany
02-14-2014, 11:27 AM
Got in RGLD @63.60. Timing looks to have been good. I even added 20% to the position, today.

Good call on Gold Miners, Lambo.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/f82c24b3a9ce4d67cf9507fd5580fccc_zps24b8e554.jpg