Top Horse Analytics: 01/29/2014 GP

[Augenj]

Race predictions will be posted here after early scratches and late scratches if possible.

Results will be posted after race charts become available.

[Augenj]

Race Cancellations (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/cancellations.html?SAP=TN)
Late Scratches (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechanges.html?SAP=TN)
Race Results (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/index.html?SAP=TN)

01/29/14, GP, Race 1, 12.40 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.01 CLAIMING. Purse $17,000
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
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100.0000 :2: Newspaper Boy [5/2] Prado E S / Pilotti Larry
098.3473 :6: Tri Polar [3-1] Lopez P / Alvarado Diane
096.1183 :5: Great Victorian [4-1] Sullivan C / Ziadie Ralph
093.9479 :1: P. L. Henry [6-1] Jaen A / Broome Edwin T.
092.7777 4 Lord Chelsie [8-1] Lugo C D / Iadisernia Giuseppe
091.8268 7 Ifimlyinimdyin [12-1] Contreras L / Pirie Barbara A.
091.2961 3 Bling Bang [15-1] Leyva J C / Jackson Gary G.
*Scratch* 8 Morality [5-1] Davis D / Walder Peter R.

01/29/14, GP, Race 2, 1.09 ET
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.38.01 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $29,000
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $1 Bet 3 (Races 2-3-4) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :4: Sonja's Angel [2-1] Castellano J / Walder Peter R.
094.2308 :6: Susies Gal [5-1] Lopez P / Iadisernia Giuseppe
093.6353 :10: Memories Made [6-1] Rocco. Jr. J / Maker Michael J.
092.8720 :11: Dissension [8-1] Jaen A / Dibona Bobby S.
092.3751 3 Jolena Jo [10-1] Bocachica O / Farro Patricia
091.7304 9 Jean's Surprise [15-1] Prado E S / Kopaj Paul
*Scratch* 8 Implied [3-1] Castellano J / Walder Peter R.
*Scratch* 7 Indian Starlight [20-1] Leparoux J R / Kassen David C.
*Scratch* 5 Blues and Silvers [5/2] Lezcano J / Hess. Jr. Robert B.
*Scratch* 2 Ambitoness [12-1] Desormeaux K J / Hess. Jr. Robert B.
*Scratch* 1 Edie [12-1] Rosario J / Walder Peter R.

01/29/14, GP, Race 3, 1.38 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.33.04 CLAIMING. Purse $15,000
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $1 Bet 3 (Races 3-4-5)
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :4: Snit Fit [5/2] Rosario J / Hess. Jr. Robert B.
098.1359 :6: Don't Tell Patti [3-1] Argueta M / Carey Charles A.
096.0206 :1: Halo's Gate [4-1] Jaen A / Tortora Emanuel
093.8481 :3: Sweet Dreamin [6-1] Zayas E J / Pinchin Jose
092.0848 7 Exclusive Sage [10-1] Osorio. Jr. J / Duco Luis
091.6480 2 Queen of Style [12-1] Kappushev M A / Dorochenko Gennadi
091.2195 5 Tiger Quay [15-1] Sanchez H / Pita Daniel
*Scratch* 8 Love Shack (IRE) [6-1] Caraballo J C / Mongeon Kathy P.

01/29/14, GP, Race 4, 2.07 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.33.04 ALLOWANCE. Purse $58,500
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $1 Bet 3 (Races 4-5-6)
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: Ana Luisa (BRZ) [2-1] Rosario J / Pletcher Todd A.
095.8938 :4: Centrique [3-1] Castellano J / Wolfson Martin D.
093.9120 :5: Dreaming of Sophia [4-1] Saez L / Ziadie Kirk
093.8030 :3: Giant Cats Eye [4-1] Lopez P / Plesa. Jr. Edward
091.6211 1 Triple Arch [6-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Vitali Marcus J.
090.6185 6 Gamay Noir [8-1] Leparoux J R / Wolfson Martin D.

01/29/14, GP, Race 5, 2.36 ET
5F [Turf] 00.53.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $21,250
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $1 Bet 3 (Races 5-6-7) / $.20 Rainbow 6 (Races 5-10)
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :4: Tough to Stop [3-1] Zayas E J / Ziadie Kirk
096.7363 :9: Bachata Dancer [4-1] Dominguez C G / Estevez Manuel A.
095.4977 :8: Dreaminofcarmela C [5-1] Lanerie C J / Zavash Kerry
093.2523 :5: Harley Go Lightly [8-1] Avidzba D / Coletti. Sr. Edward J.
092.3254 2 See Trouble [10-1] Rocco. Jr. J / Cibelli Jane
092.2273 7 Lady Joyfull [12-1] Saez L / Sano Antonio
090.7572 1 Confident Lady [20-1] Madrid S O / DiMauro Stephen L.
*Scratch* 6 Behappyalex [8-1] Kappushev M A / Dorochenko Gennadi
*Scratch* 3 Starship Mystique [15-1] Chamafi J / Dwoskin Steven
*Scratch* 11 Moonlight Time [20-1] Bocachica O / Heard Vaughan
*Scratch* 10 Dunkirk's Best [6-1] Carmouche K / Pointer Norman R.

01/29/14, GP, Race 6, 3.05 ET
1M [Turf] 1.31.02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $21,250
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $1 Bet 3 (Races 6-7-8) / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 6-10)
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :14: Succesful Brothers [5/2] Davis D / Ward Wesley A.
097.0088 :13: Noble Abode [4-1] Carmouche K / Pino Michael V.
096.5864 :4: Ingenuity [4-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Coletti. Sr. Edward J.
095.5709 :12: To Dare Is to Do [5-1] Lopez P / Volk Scott J.
095.4106 15 Jim Jamm [5-1] Chamafi J / Fawkes David
094.0189 9 Wake Up and Go [8-1] Rosario J / Matz Michael R.
093.4558 7 The Best Monkey [8-1] Chamafi J / Duco Luis
093.0888 11 Dardanian [10-1] Rocco. Jr. J / Nicks Ralph E.
092.7837 10 Chevron Light [12-1] Alvarez J L / Brownlee David R.
092.0101 6 Raging Mane [15-1] Lugo C D / Iadisernia Giuseppe
091.7246 2 Bythe Grace of God [20-1] Panici L / Catanese. III Joseph C
*Scratch* 8 Discreet Ed [6-1] Jaen A / Navarro Marcial
*Scratch* 5 Not Welcome [6-1] Castro E / Iadisernia Giuseppe
*Scratch* 3 Minstrel Road [3-1] Leparoux J R / Kenneally Eddie
*Scratch* 1 Gridiron Great [8-1] Saez L / Azpurua Manuel J.

01/29/14, GP, Race 7, 3.34 ET
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.38.01 CLAIMING. Purse $27,250
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $1 Bet 3 (Races 7-8-9) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 7-8-9-10)
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :3: Great Rising Star [3-1] Castellano J / Walder Peter R.
094.1403 :2: Able Baker Charlie [8-1] Bocachica O / Vitali Marcus J.
093.4004 :7: Start Up [10-1] Olivero C / Garcia Rodolfo
092.9840 :10: Valerie'sgreenjet [12-1] Prado E S / Collazo Henry
091.9058 13 Top Excitement [20-1] Madrid S O / Catanese. III Joseph C
091.8712 5 Wise Maker [20-1] Worrie A S / Passley Mark
*Scratch* 9 E Biscuit [12-1] Saez L / Broome Edwin T.
*Scratch* 8 Ayrton [20-1] Zayas E J / Azpurua Manuel J.
*Scratch* 6 Marie's Music [15-1] Davis D / Gaffney Ronald
*Scratch* 4 McIlroy [4-1] Lezcano J / Brown Chad C.
*Scratch* 12 Forever Conga [20-1] Gonzales J J / Rizo Juan P.
*Scratch* 11 Brickyard Kitten [5-1] Bravo J / Servis John C.
*Scratch* 1 Mandola [6-1] Rocco. Jr. J / Sheppard Jonathan E.

01/29/14, GP, Race 8, 4.03 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.33.04 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $47,000
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $1 Bet 3 (Races 8-9-10)
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :4: Got Lucky [9/5] Velazquez J R / Pletcher Todd A.
095.9516 :8: Color Me Flying [3-1] Lezcano J / Mott William I.
094.0275 :2: Lollobrigida [5-1] Castellano J / Wolfson Martin D.
093.2247 :9: Senior Prom [6-1] Lanerie C J / Romans Dale L.
092.9718 7 Starship Marquis [8-1] Cotto. Jr. P L / Navarro Jorge
091.9476 1 Twenty in One [12-1] Leparoux J R / Arnold. II George R.
091.8672 6 Lady Margarita [12-1] Rocco. Jr. J / Arnold. II George R.
091.4919 3 Laurensdesanimaux [20-1] Lopez P / Alvarado Diane
*Scratch* 5 Running Wild [15-1] Prado E S / Iwinski Allen

01/29/14, GP, Race 9, 4.33 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.33.04 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $18,600
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :12: Toh's Grey Cat [3-1] Delgado J N / Walder Peter R.
097.7997 :8: J B's Unc [4-1] Jaen A / Navarro Jorge
095.4196 :4: Horned Frog [6-1] Rosario J / Maker Michael J.
094.2681 :5: Untethered [8-1] Saez L / Ness Jamie
093.0603 10 Razzo Succo [12-1] Lopez P / Mason Ingrid
092.9789 7 Major Prince [12-1] Zayas E J / Fernandez Marcos
092.4955 3 Sir Sparky [15-1] Sanchez H / Ziadie Ralph
092.0441 11 Worth a Buck [20-1] Panici L / Iadisernia Giuseppe
*Scratch* 9 Move Over [8-1] Lanerie C J / Bogle Fergus
*Scratch* 6 No Act [12-1] Alvarez J L / Spatz Ronald B.
*Scratch* 2 Alex's Vision [10-1] Bravo J / Alvarado Diane
*Scratch* 1 Hold That Camera [20-1] Gonzales J J / Benning Alan

01/29/14, GP, Race 10, 5.03 ET
1M [Turf] 1.31.02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $21,250
$1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :10: Hidden Intentions [4-1] Saez L / Pinchin Jose
096.7594 :1: Go Solo [6-1] Chamafi J / Jerkens H. Allen
095.5482 :7: My Mom Santina [8-1] Bocachica O / Dibona Bobby S.
094.3265 :8: Nonhelema [10-1] Davis D / Hamm Timothy E.
093.6150 3 Sawyer [12-1] Rocco. Jr. J / Cibelli Jane
091.5375 5 Royal Spaces [20-1] Murgia A / Catanese. III Joseph C
*Scratch* 9 Big N Toasty [12-1] Jaen A / Campitelli Jessica J.
*Scratch* 6 Heaven Help Me [5-1] Castellano J / Walder Peter R.
*Scratch* 4 Ocean Gal [3-1] Lopez P / Plesa. Jr. Edward
*Scratch* 2 Addar [6-1] Prado E S / Sano Antonio

[Augenj]

Some of you may have noticed that today's predictions for Gulfstream Park are closely alligned with the morning line odds in each race.

During our yearly analysis runs, we set the biases or "weights" of eight of the base factors by highest win per cent. With the ninth base factor (morning line), we look for the highest ROI that exceeds the other combined base factors' ROI since morning line always improves win per cent but does not always improve ROI.

At Gulfstream Park and Churchill Downs, it just happens to mean that the morning line is biased pretty heavily. Other tracks like Aqueduct are biased pretty low and you'll see more longshots on top even though they win less often.

The idea is to drive win per cent and ROI (profit) up for all races but select only races where the conditions are profitable to bet. The conditions that we bet have been proven year to year in the past but not in the current year until the fat lady sings at the end of the year.

[Augenj]

01/29/14, GP, Race 1, 12.40 ET
100.0000 :2: Newspaper Boy [5/2] 3rd - 2.20
098.3473 :6: Tri Polar [3-1] 1st - 10.00 5.00 2.40
096.1183 :5: Great Victorian [4-1] 2nd - 7.20 4.20
093.9479 :1: P. L. Henry [6-1]

01/29/14, GP, Race 2, 1.09 ET
100.0000 :4: Sonja's Angel [2-1] 1st -2.60 2.20 2.10
094.2308 :6: Susies Gal [5-1] *SCR*
093.6353 :10: Memories Made [6-1] 3rd - 2.10
092.8720 :11: Dissension [8-1]

01/29/14, GP, Race 3, 1.38 ET
100.0000 :4: Snit Fit [5/2] 3rd - 2.10
098.1359 :6: Don't Tell Patti [3-1] 1st - 5.80 3.00 2.20
096.0206 :1: Halo's Gate [4-1] 2nd - 3.40 2.20
093.8481 :3: Sweet Dreamin [6-1]

01/29/14, GP, Race 4, 2.07 ET
100.0000 :2: Ana Luisa (BRZ) [2-1]
095.8938 :4: Centrique [3-1] 1st - 5.60 3.40 3.00
093.9120 :5: Dreaming of Sophia [4-1]
093.8030 :3: Giant Cats Eye [4-1]

01/29/14, GP, Race 5, 2.36 ET
100.0000 :4: Tough to Stop [3-1] 1st - 4.60 3.20 2.20
096.7363 :9: Bachata Dancer [4-1]
095.4977 :8: Dreaminofcarmela C [5-1] 3rd - 2.40
093.2523 :5: Harley Go Lightly [8-1]

01/29/14, GP, Race 6, 3.05 ET
100.0000 :14: Succesful Brothers [5/2] 2nd - 3.40 2.60
097.0088 :13: Noble Abode [4-1]
096.5864 :4: Ingenuity [4-1] 1st - 7.00 3.60 3.00
095.5709 :12: To Dare Is to Do [5-1]

01/29/14, GP, Race 7, 3.34 ET
100.0000 :3: Great Rising Star [3-1] 1st - 3.80 2.40 2.10
094.1403 :2: Able Baker Charlie [8-1] 2nd - 3.60 2.80
093.4004 :7: Start Up [10-1] 3rd - 2.40
092.9840 :10: Valerie'sgreenjet [12-1]

01/29/14, GP, Race 8, 4.03 ET
100.0000 :4: Got Lucky [9/5] 1st - 2.80 2.20 2.10
095.9516 :8: Color Me Flying [3-1] 2nd - 3.20 2.20
094.0275 :2: Lollobrigida [5-1]
093.2247 :9: Senior Prom [6-1]

01/29/14, GP, Race 9, 4.33 ET
100.0000 :12: Toh's Grey Cat [3-1]
097.7997 :8: J B's Unc [4-1] 2nd - 3.80 2.60
095.4196 :4: Horned Frog [6-1] 3rd - 3.20
094.2681 :5: Untethered [8-1] 1st - 14.00 7.00 3.80

01/29/14, GP, Race 10, 5.03 ET
100.0000 :10: Hidden Intentions [4-1]
096.7594 :1: Go Solo [6-1] 3rd - 2.80
095.5482 :7: My Mom Santina [8-1] 2nd - 6.00 3.40
094.3265 :8: Nonhelema [10-1]