Some Rambling On about Pool Manipulation and TV

[Robert Goren]

Again I am amazed. At time we when are desperate for new people to enter game, we are worried about somebody manipulating the scoring. The most popular shows on TV like Survivor are all about manipulation. We need to get the betting part of the sport on TV. Because that is what the sport needs, bettors. Almost every win pool at a major track is manipulated. That is what the whales do. They force the odds to where they need them to be. If I had the money and I want to make a lot of money in horse racing, I would be doing the same thing. When simulcasting and ADWs came in everything changed. It created a new class of bettors who use game theory to decide who to bet and when and how much. To those bettors, it is about driving the odds up or down to where they want them. If they have to bet horse B to get odds on horse A where they want it, that is what they do. It is chess match with that bettor on one side and the public money on the other. Open your eyes and just watch the odds and the pools in the last couple of minutes and beyond for a while. It is a small step from value betting to creating your own value if you have the money to do it. I maybe in the minority here, but I think that makes good TV. Even if it don't, It is still going to happen not only in handicapping tournaments but in your pools as well. And if you think is bad now, just wait until the exchange pools start having major bucks in them. Those things are a manipulator's wet dream.

[Stillriledup]

There's a difference between a whale betting 5k to win first flash to "Scare" off value seeking bettors so they consider betting on other horses or betting the 5k to win when they only intend on really betting 500 or 1000 and refunding the rest at the last possible second. Making a large bet early and keeping the bet isnt manipulation.

[Robert Goren]

There's a difference between a whale betting 5k to win first flash to "Scare" off value seeking bettors so they consider betting on other horses or betting the 5k to win when they only intend on really betting 500 or 1000 and refunding the rest at the last possible second. Making a large bet early and keeping the bet isnt manipulation. I was not talking about betting early. I was talking about betting late to move the odds to more favorable position. It is kind of hard for me to put into words exactly what is happening. Let say you want horse A to be even money and horse B to 3/2. Currently Horse A is 7/5 and horse B is 6/5. You bet enough on both horses so they end up Even money and 3/2 which is what you think is just above your break even point after the rebates. Since there are bettors doing the same thing, the game starts at 3 or 4 MTP and involves bets made to fake out the other large bettors. Dave hinted at this a year or so ago and I started to watch for it. After a while, you can figure out pretty much what they are doing. It is strictly a spectator sport and I doubt if the "small" bettor can use the info to his advantage. It does lend credence to the idea that it is tough for the small bettor to make money on short priced horses long term because they drive the value out of them. They work with short price horses because that is where they can make the large bets without killing the odds too much and collect the large rebates. If there is a poster here who plays this part of the game, I would hope he would chime in.

[Ray]

Here is an interesting view of changing odds in the final NHC race



MONDAY, JANUARY 27, 2014
Trying to Make Sense of the Final Chaotic Moments at NHC15
We may never know the truth of what transpired in the final moments leading up to the 9th Race at Santa Anita, which was the final mandatory race of NHC15. It certainly opened up the possibility of contest manipulation or at the very least hedging, whichever way you view such a strategy. The difference between the winner's share and runner-up's was $550,000 ($750k to the winner, 200k to runner-up) The NTRA opened up this possibility by exposing players selections with 1 minute to post while pari-mutuel pools were still open. Here is what we know at this point


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