Top Billing -very good 3yo for Shug

[big frank]

Top Billing has an explosive late kick....He is by Curlin/Ap Indy ... So he wants distance , distance , and more distance... In his 1st 2 races his late pace figures were off the charts.... Today he sat back and cruised with Rosario in a solid time... I know Shug has Honor Code but this 3yo is going to be a stakes winner very soon...

[Robert Fischer]

He's a good one.

[letswastemoney]

Top Billing is good, but he's overrated. Cairo Prince ran an exceptional race over a top field, while Top Billing won an optional claiming. The connections and his late running style also cause fans to overrate him, as it's widely assumed more distance equals a favorable situation for closers.

[Robert Fischer]

He was a half second slower, and traveled 21 feet less ground, while carrying 2 pounds less than Cairo Prince.

Maybe that would put him between 4-8 raw lengths slower depending on how you calculate it.

He did look good, however.

[letswastemoney]

He was a half second slower, and traveled 21 feet less ground, while carrying 2 pounds less than Cairo Prince.

Maybe that would put him between 4-8 raw lengths slower depending on how you calculate it.

He did look good, however.

Yes, he did. My top 5 would be...

1) Honor Code
2) Cairo Prince
3) Commissioner
4) Top Billing
5) Hartford (even though I get this feeling he'll be injured)

[Robert Fischer]

Yes, he did. My top 5 would be...

1) Honor Code
2) Cairo Prince
3) Commissioner
4) Top Billing
5) Hartford (even though I get this feeling he'll be injured)

That looks like a pretty good list.
Are you leaving out Shared Belief?

I don't know who I like so far. Maybe your top 4 and Bayern?
The downey profile (http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/looking_good) does a pretty good job at this point in the season organizing most of the contenders (starting with the "looking good" category).

final note from me on the Top Billing vs. Cairo Prince comparison: yesterday's final 1/4ths = Top Billing =24.94 , Cairo Prince 25.55 - So not all of it was negative for Top Billing.

[letswastemoney]

That looks like a pretty good list.
Are you leaving out Shared Belief?

I don't know who I like so far. Maybe your top 4 and Bayern?
The downey profile (http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/looking_good) does a pretty good job at this point in the season organizing most of the contenders (starting with the "looking good" category).

final note from me on the Top Billing vs. Cairo Prince comparison: yesterday's final 1/4ths = Top Billing =24.94 , Cairo Prince 25.55 - So not all of it was negative for Top Billing.
Yes, I need to see Shared Belief on dirt before I can share everyone's belief.

Cairo Prince had to run harder in the first half though right? A deep closer like Top Billing should always have a fast final quarter, otherwise they aren't doing their job. In the Derby, Top Billing will need to run the fastest opening quarter and opening half of his life, even from the back. There's no certainty he will close the same.

[Thebigguy]

That looks like a pretty good list.
Are you leaving out Shared Belief?

I don't know who I like so far. Maybe your top 4 and Bayern?
The downey profile (http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/looking_good) does a pretty good job at this point in the season organizing most of the contenders (starting with the "looking good" category).

final note from me on the Top Billing vs. Cairo Prince comparison: yesterday's final 1/4ths = Top Billing =24.94 , Cairo Prince 25.55 - So not all of it was negative for Top Billing.

Shared Belief would not even make my top 10. Lets see him on dirt first. Plus this crop is on the verge of being great. There are a ton of good 2yr olds, all over the place right now.

[SharpCat]

That looks like a pretty good list.
Are you leaving out Shared Belief?

I don't know who I like so far. Maybe your top 4 and Bayern?
The downey profile (http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/looking_good) does a pretty good job at this point in the season organizing most of the contenders (starting with the "looking good" category).

final note from me on the Top Billing vs. Cairo Prince comparison: yesterday's final 1/4ths = Top Billing =24.94 , Cairo Prince 25.55 - So not all of it was negative for Top Billing.


Just a added note on the stretch runs of the two nice 3yo. Cario Prince was under a stiff drive with L. Saez going left handed 4 times then showing the whip to the wire. Top Billing was mildly hand ridden then taken in hand by J. Rosario the final 50 yds.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Hey man I have to back off my former sarcastic comment.I live for this stuff.This is one of the most fun times of the year.I dig it and I love that there are threads like this started.This is what it's all about.Hell yes!

[letswastemoney]

Just a added note on the stretch runs of the two nice 3yo. Cario Prince was under a stiff drive with L. Saez going left handed 4 times then showing the whip to the wire. Top Billing was mildly hand ridden then taken in hand by J. Rosario the final 50 yds.
Cairo Prince was supposed to be more tired in the final quarter, and will be more tired in every race. He runs closer to the pace, and in this case a grueling pace where Coup de Grace faded to the back of the pack.

Top Billing prefers coming from 10 to 20 lengths out of it. There is something wrong if Top Billing doesn't have the faster closing time.

But, Cairo Prince will be able to outrun him early. In dirt racing, the races are normally won on their turn when the leaders separate themselves from the pack. So, the final quarter times are worth noting, but they are not everything.

[classhandicapper]

It was an impressive race, especially given that you kind of expect a Shug horse to develop slowly and continue moving forward. But I don't think you can put him in the top tier yet.

[Robert Fischer]

http://oi61.tinypic.com/kb1vzr.jpg

[CincyHorseplayer]

With the class and stamina in his bloodlines and a giant late kick,I don't have to be absolutely dazzled and do somersaults by numbers in his 2nd route to know this is a good one.I can't wait to see him next out.

[turninforhome10]

With the class and stamina in his bloodlines and a giant late kick,I don't have to be absolutely dazzled and do somersaults by numbers in his 2nd route to know this is a good one.I can't wait to see him next out.
Since I know you are learning pedigrees, Top Billing goes back to one of the leading families http://www.pedigreequery.com/top+billing6 . When Lowe did his families http://www.tbheritage.com/HistoricDams/FamilyNumbers.html, he rated the female lines by the number of English Classic winners. Top Billing is from family 1-n http://www.tbheritage.com/HistoricDams/EngFoundationMares/Family1/Family1.html, going back to Chelandry http://www.tbheritage.com/Portraits/Chelandry.html
This family is responsible for more classic winners than any other family in racing.
Top Billing is so deep in stamina, if he stays sound watch out. AP Indy, Roberto and Nijinsky II, very stout. Triple Crown?

[overthehill]

I think its way too early make a derby pick. i havent been blown away by anybody so far . i will say that commisoner before the race he beat top billing in, made a terrific appearance on the track. how well that translates into derby success i have no idea.

[horses4courses]

Top Billing is likely for the FOY on Feb 22nd.
Honor Code won't be ready by then, apparently.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Since I know you are learning pedigrees, Top Billing goes back to one of the leading families http://www.pedigreequery.com/top+billing6 . When Lowe did his families http://www.tbheritage.com/HistoricDams/FamilyNumbers.html, he rated the female lines by the number of English Classic winners. Top Billing is from family 1-n http://www.tbheritage.com/HistoricDams/EngFoundationMares/Family1/Family1.html, going back to Chelandry http://www.tbheritage.com/Portraits/Chelandry.html
This family is responsible for more classic winners than any other family in racing.
Top Billing is so deep in stamina, if he stays sound watch out. AP Indy, Roberto and Nijinsky II, very stout. Triple Crown?

Thanks man.I'm not nearly as far along as you but this stuff lights up my imagination.A tough feat these days!