WORST BETS

[tonypp]

Whats the worst bet people do at the track.For me its when i key the favorite in the last leg of a pick 3.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

The show bet!

[Ocala Mike]

Boxing anything. It's a lazy bet where you are basically saying that each horse on your ticket has exactly the same chance to finish wherever as every other horse. I'm guilty of it myself far too often.

[tonypp]

Worst value is a better answer.

[taxicab]

Any ticket I turn in today.......

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Any ticket I turn in today.......


Been there myself! LOL

[therussmeister]

Boxing anything. It's a lazy bet where you are basically saying that each horse on your ticket has exactly the same chance to finish wherever as every other horse. I'm guilty of it myself far too often.
I disagree, there is nothing wrong with an occasional two horse exacta box. And you don't have to think each horse has 'EXACTLY' the same chance to win/place to do it.

[Ocala Mike]

OK; possibly a two-horse box, but I've seen plenty of guys box 5 or 6 horses in exactas or tris. Can't see that as a long-term winning strategy.

[wiffleball whizz]

Whats the worst bet people do at the track.For me its when i key the favorite in the last leg of a pick 3.


Did that today!!!!!!! Fml

[MONEY]

Whats the worst bet people do at the track.For me its when i key the favorite in the last leg of a pick 3.

There's nothing wrong with this strategy as long as you use horses that deserve to be favorite.
Last week a P3 ending with Ribo Bobo 6/5 at Gulfstream paid $94.70 for a buck, the very next P3
paid $42.90 for a dollar, when Mucho Macho Man won at 1/9.

[HUSKER55]

fwiw, i only play exactas when I feel the favorite is vulnerable. I box the 3 choices.

[turninforhome10]

The worst bets IMHO are the ones where your system picks a longshot and you cave in to public opinion playing their picks. :bang: :bang:
When you finally start to trust your system and handicapping, this starts to change. But when you get one of these and can't squeeze everything out of it that gets frustrating. Below I had the winner, but did not use the :10: in the 2 whole for the Exacta, Tri and Super. Had the winner but missed a chance at almost 10 k in windfall.
This hurts.

Custom Method: APM - Average Pace model
OAKLAWN PARK 01-25-2014 RACE 5 OF 9 - TRACK RATING: 89
6.0f DIRT 4YO AND UPWARD Nw 3/NW SNC APR 25 2013 WGT 122 LBS NON-WS SNC OCT 25 2013 3 LBS

MY TIP SHEET PREDICTIONS (USING Average Pace model):
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
7 MUAZZAZ 15.0 HOMEISTER JR. R. B MASON I.
4 DEADLY CARD 8.0 CANCHARI A. ROBERTSON M.
12 FOREST KING 1.8 BIRZER A. BRUEGGEMANN R. A.
10 HERECOMESBERT 10.0 ARROYO JR. N. RITCHEY T. F.
3 SHARP HARBOUR 4.5 NAVARRO J. SMITH K. P.



Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
7 Muazzaz Rosemary B. Homeister, Jr. 51.00 16.60 9.80
10 Herecomesbert Norberto Arroyo, Jr. 9.80 5.40
12 Forest King Alex Birzer 3.40
Also ran: 4 - Deadly Card , 11 - Dixie Banner , 3 - Sharp Harbour , 6 - Porter Central , 2 - Gentle Ocean , 1 - Corporate Intrigue , 5 - Dina Boy , 9 - Gone Cowboy , 8 - Whistlin Sam

Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff
$1 Pick 3 5-7-7 (3 correct) 2,069.00
$1 Pick 4 4-5-7-7 (4 correct) 11,349.90
$2 Exacta 7-10 481.40
$1 Superfecta 7-10-12-4 7,579.40
$1 Trifecta 7-10-12 1,455.80
Winning Breeder: Shadwell Farm, LLC
Winning Owner: Mason, Ingrid and Frank Nicholson Thoroughbreds, Inc.
Winning Trainer: Ingrid Mason

[therussmeister]

OK; possibly a two-horse box, but I've seen plenty of guys box 5 or 6 horses in exactas or tris. Can't see that as a long-term winning strategy.
I've seen guys play five horse exacta boxes that include the odds-on favorite and second favorite.

[PICSIX]

My posted selections :bang:

[JohnGalt1]

Just like any hard and fast rules in this game, an exception to limiting exacta boxes to 2 or 3 is on days with huge pools and fields like the Ky Derby and Breeder's Cup.

Look up average pay outs on the exactas in these races

[Robert Fischer]

lots of ways to answer this one so i'll throw some "worst bets" into the mix

1. 'Tilt' Bets = You lost, and now you can't accept taking that loss :mad:, and are Overbetting your bankroll in order to "make up" for previous losing bets. Add in significant overbetting for greed as well.

2. Should've Bets = I should've parlayed that win single into a straight daily double, and then parlayed that to go all in on the feature :( and I'd have x dollars now! (can lead to #1)

3. Bets where you had no edge. The 'box' bets come into play here. There is a time and a place for boxing, but it isn't every race. A couple things I noticed from record keeping - boxes often indicated poor race selection rather than a race that was a perfect fit for a box wager, and spreading in exotics would often lead to higher ROIs simply using a lean opinion.

[burnsy]

I like the key exacta box. I don't understand why people are against exacta boxes.....when you miss any exacta paying over 30 bucks because you were stubborn, its pissing money away. When you miss one over 100,you might as well go home for the day. I refuse to sit there and miss huge ROI because I think I know it all. The first time you miss a 200, 300 dollar exacta because you didn't box it, maybe that will teach you. Sure taught me a long time ago. My favorite bet is a key boxed with two. If I can't separate the three, especially in a big field of grass horses...i'm boxing. I refuse to be the idiot with the right horses at a huge number, throwing tickets on the floor because I got bobbed at the wire and was too cute or cheap to cover my ass. If the exacta is your play, that is just asinine.

[Robert Goren]

Short priced deep closers on the dirt.

[burnsy]

Just to clarify...you don't have to box the exacta but if you don't have a small piece going the "other way"...you end playing the fool. Believe me, I've already lost every way possible..this come from experiencing hard knocks.

[limit2]

The worst bet I could think of is to play exotics only without a Win wager that would generate a profit for the race.

[therussmeister]

I like the key exacta box. I don't understand why people are against exacta boxes.....when you miss any exacta paying over 30 bucks because you were stubborn, its pissing money away. When you miss one over 100,you might as well go home for the day. I refuse to sit there and miss huge ROI because I think I know it all. The first time you miss a 200, 300 dollar exacta because you didn't box it, maybe that will teach you. Sure taught me a long time ago. My favorite bet is a key boxed with two. If I can't separate the three, especially in a big field of grass horses...i'm boxing. I refuse to be the idiot with the right horses at a huge number, throwing tickets on the floor because I got bobbed at the wire and was too cute or cheap to cover my ass. If the exacta is your play, that is just asinine.
I disagree IF, the money I save by not boxing is used to increase the amount bet on my other combinations. For every missed $200 payoff, I can make an extra $2,000 by betting more money on fewer combinations.

[therussmeister]

The worst bet I could think of is to play exotics only without a Win wager that would generate a profit for the race.
I disagree for the same reason I disagree with Burnsy. If a win wager means you have less to invest on exotics, and exotics give you a better ROI, just go for the exotics.

[lamboguy]

what i used to do when i was a racing form reader was handicap my races ahead of time. if my horse was in the top 3 that the racing form handicapper picked i would pass the race. if my horse was not in the mix i would play it. i actually did pretty well with that system.

[tanner12oz]

Wanting to cash tickets but not make money

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Some of the worst bets I've seen others make, as well as myself, are the "hedge" bets. Being alive in a multi-race wager, and trying to hedge the outcome playing winning selections second or third in "saver" tris, exactas, place and show bets.

Most of the time, my key horse(s) either win as originally thought, or they're nowhere 'cause I don't have a clue on the race....

[Longshot6977]

Whats the worst bet people do at the track.

I would have to say using the "quick pick' selector for a bet. I saw this on a SAM machine. It's kinda like a lottery quick pick. Why even bet horses if you have the computer make a random quick pick for you.

[slihawk]

Betting a Jock or Trainer who has a proven less than 10% win
and is a short price
I just don't get it

[jdhanover]

I'd say the worst bet is a superfecta bet where there is a high liklihood that the payout won't exceed the total bet. The $7.20 dime super that pay $5.39 type of thing.

[stu]

I would argue that the worst bets that anybody can make is on a wager when you are under-capitalized to ride the variance.

e.g. Playing the trifecta when your total bankroll is $10 or the Pick-6 when your total bankroll is $100

In a similar way that you don't sit down at a 5-10 Limit Hold'em game with $100.

[Redboard]

Whats the worst bet people do at the track.For me its when i key the favorite in the last leg of a pick 3.
The worst bet that people do at the track is when they bet on a horse race.

[menifee]

Whats the worst bet people do at the track.For me its when i key the favorite in the last leg of a pick 3.

Betting other people's mortal locks. Just kidding - I appreciate that you put your opinions out there

[Tara73]

Following public handicappers and playing the pick 4 and pick 6 with a small bankroll.

[nijinski]

Boxing anything. It's a lazy bet where you are basically saying that each horse on your ticket has exactly the same chance to finish wherever as every other horse. I'm guilty of it myself far too often.

The racing luck element makes me box ,lol . That poor start or trip
can get ya too often .

[cutchemist42]

I would argue that the worst bets that anybody can make is on a wager when you are under-capitalized to ride the variance.

e.g. Playing the trifecta when your total bankroll is $10 or the Pick-6 when your total bankroll is $100

In a similar way that you don't sit down at a 5-10 Limit Hold'em game with $100.

Agreed, bankroll management is big.

[porchy44]

long shots to place. bet them to win and put favs on top in exacta

[rolroc]

I disagree, there is nothing wrong with an occasional two horse exacta box. And you don't have to think each horse has 'EXACTLY' the same chance to win/place to do it.
Still lazy. If you feel one order is more likely to come in, play it for more units vs. the other way you feel less likely.

[BlueShoe]

The worst bet I could think of is to play exotics only without a Win wager that would generate a profit for the race.
Ditto, a variation of this is something I have done. For example, you have a key horse at 5-1 in a race in which you have allocated $20. You wager $10 to win and key your selection with the other $10 in either a vertical or horizontal exotic. It wins, but you blow the exotic, thus you only win $40 instead of the $100 had you just bet the $20 to win. Even worse, have often seen guys totally waste boxcar winners by only playing exotics without even a token win wager on their longshot selection. This I do not do, but have diluted profits by doing the dumb stunt mentioned above. Sure, when the exotic does hit you feel smug, but somehow those hits never seem to quite make up for what you would have gotten had you just bet the darn thing to win and forgotten about that super or pick-4.

[HuggingTheRail]

Betting a Pick 6 at a "C" track where there is no carryover and the total pool is $453

[classhandicapper]

The thing that cost me a lot of money years ago was saver wagers.

Any ticket you punch trying to "cash the bet" that's not an overlay is a bad bet even if your instinct tells you should save "just in case that underlay favorite comes in".

[pondman]

Win bets at under 9 to 5.