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View Full Version : Is There Really Anything to the Good/Bad Theory?


Ocala Mike
01-24-2014, 09:39 PM
I've heard about horses who alternate good and bad races, but I'm not sure that I believe it's any more than a coincidence. Anyway, in the 10th at Santa Anita tomorrow, there's an excellent example of this type of horse.

:6: , AOTEAROA has alternated good wirh bad performances since his debut 6 races ago. Picks up Gary Stevens for a trainer I don't know too much about, Leonard Powell. Last was awful at 5/2, but he may have had an excuse (unless he's strictly turf). He'll be a decent price in here; any thoughts?

Tom
01-25-2014, 09:30 AM
I look for reasons, like pace, post, trouble, etc.
But I think it was more prominent back in the day when horses ran more than 6 times year. Maybe the good races all came 6-8 week apart with a "bad" race in between.

fmolf
01-25-2014, 09:35 AM
I look for reasons, like pace, post, trouble, etc.
But I think it was more prominent back in the day when horses ran more than 6 times year. Maybe the good races all came 6-8 week apart with a "bad" race in between.
I think it is a product of trainer intent myself.The bad "in between" race being used as a longish workout to prepare the horse for the next out.The tell-tale sign of this for me is if the horse is sent from the gate when it never gets the lead otherwise, or is asked for run late in a race when usually a frontrunner.

HUSKER55
01-25-2014, 10:38 AM
I agree with the other posters. It has more to do with the trainer. I have noticed that more trainers are using a race for a workout or prep race more and more. Just like some of the horses after they cross the wire are kept running till about the first turn. Last out was a route and they were burned out at the top of the stretch and today they are drop in for 6.5 or 7 furlongs.

just my observations. hope it helps.

Ocala Mike
01-25-2014, 10:48 PM
:6: horse in distress and was eased; so much for patterns!

thaskalos
01-26-2014, 01:38 PM
There is definitely something to the "good/bad theory"...IMO. It's hard to call something "coincidental", when it occurs so often.

At some racetracks...it is almost a negative for a horse to display a sharp last race.

raybo
01-26-2014, 02:30 PM
I tend to agree with what has been posted, for the most part. There are many reasons why horses run good then bad then good, etc., changes in the pace makeup of races that either favor a horse or vice versa, form changes and form work as a prep for a future race, changing tracks, changing surfaces, changing distances, dry track or off track, moving up or down in class, too little rest after a hard race, or too much rest signaling that a horse's form cycle had run its course or that it was injured or ill during or after the last race, having a perfect trip in the last race or vice versa, etc., etc..

I, personally, take a close look at my form ratings, in conjunction with today's competition, distance, surface, pace projection, etc., to determine if the horse is likely to advance or decline today.

I'm not inclined to bet a good/bad/good pattern alone, I still require more validation through further evaluation.

johnhannibalsmith
01-26-2014, 04:59 PM
There used to be a few barns that you could make money playing around my parts using this angle almost exclusively. They liked to play with the big boys and win races and finally discovered that the vet can help a horse feel good. But they were cheap and to make matters worse, needed the vet to tell them when the horse needed to feel better. Consequently, they'd grease a half-dozen joints, win a race, then run back in two weeks and the horse would be up the track. They'd take that as a sure sign to grease up again for the next race and invariable would then run well again. Then, a few weeks of cortisone depletion later, the cycle would repeat again and again and again.

You could literally throw out horses that looked huge off their last race simply because the horse hadn't reminded the connections to get the vet down there with a bad race since the last good one.