Santa Anita Thursday.....

[taxicab]

I think I'll borrow from our good friends over at TVG.
Use or lose, Santa Anita style.

The 2nd is not a P-6 race, but it is part of the P-5 and the opener of the early P-4.....
#4-Perfectly Legal (6-1) Won his only race nicely, but the field he beat was down right slow....LOSE.
#6-The Cleaners (9-5) Trainer Machowsky got away with one running this dude for a 30k maiden last time. A 170k purchase, The Cleaners was coming out of some BTL races against good straight maidens. He looked really good traveling in his last, a measured victory.........as long as he doesn't scratch, USE.
Sidebar on this race, Can someone please explain to me the logic behind the race choices for Salutos Amigos. This horse could of been decent,but his confidence was crushed early on.

The carryover 6 starts in the 3rd.
I had nothing but trouble with the first 3 in this sequence.
I even switched over to the TVG PP's to try to get a different feel for the first half of the P-6 (I have found that if I'm not getting anything from one set of PP's, a switch to another can be helpful).
Once again, not a great feel for races 3-5.

Race 3:
#2-A Toast to You (5-2) I think the proper tell on him is he likes to be covered up for most of the race.In his races where he ran well he had company around him during most of the race. When he has run poorly, he has seen daylight early in the race and flattened out........USE.
#4-Zimmer (4-1) I haven't got a clue......you guys tell me.
#5-He's a Dance Star (2-1) This horse could be my downfall, I don't trust this guy. I understand he's fond of the hillside, and he should have a pace advantage, but he might have some holes in him. Two races back his line is deceiving, is reads 2hd but the 3rd place finisher ( Mr. Bossy Pants ) was on his way to victory when he lost his mind at the 1/16th pole.....HDS finishing line should of been 3rd by 2 lengths.
In HDS last race he was hard used early and just looked crummy the entire stretch. In his defense that was on the Holly Syn. and today it's the turf, but he ran well 3 back on the DMR Polly.....LOSE, he looked bad in his last.

Race 4....no clue, every horse that has run is slow.....no feel for the firsters one way or another.

Race 5....nothing looks good to me here.
I will note that the worlds clumsiest horse (Public Interest) has been gelded since his last debacle, and turned in a 59.1 bullet for a barn that will work them fast when they want a big race out of a good maiden.

Race 6:
#2-Warren's Joe T. (7-2) the first of 2 in here that looked horrid in the stretch of their last,the other would be.....
#3- Brown Boss ( 7-2), does the ml maker even watch these races ? ) it looked like BB suffered some kind of injury early in the stretch in his last.
It was ugly.......LOSE both Warren/BB.
#4 Red Sharp Humor (5-2) His last is a BTL, he showed a lot of try all the way to the wire in a heated front end tussle.......USE.
#7 Majestic Moment (8-1) Sneak Play alert. his last trip was miserable from the jump,much better than looked race.....USE.

Race 7:
#2 Mangita (4-1) This is a nice horse.
Coming off of a long layoff and trying the grass and a route for the first time this one ran a great race.Factor in her effortless way of going and you have a must USE.
#3 Blazen All Star (6-1) Beat a weak field where she was 3rd best......LOSE.
#4 Miss Well Molded (9-5) Might be the heaviest played horse in the P-6 today.Looked miserable falling apart in her last.....UGH......LOSE with a bullet.
#6 Tanquerray/#7 Lil Swiss Echo both have talent and are very nice horses.
Could be good.

Race 8:
#3 Runaway Que (2-1) ran bravely in defeat, didn't deserve to lose.....USE.
#5 Bluegrass Fox Trot (7-2) had a perfect trip, would not pass the 2 in front of him he should of blown by......Lose.
Note:The #2 Samurai Assault (8-1) had a miserable trip,could be a sleeper in here.

Good Luck everybody.

[1st time lasix]

Appreciated the analysis....I think the 4- Keeneland Kitten is a USE in race 8 Came out of a couple of key races--third off the layoff-2nd over the track stretching out. ***** What about the 6 -Liberty Cap in the sixth...signicant drop and has showed contending spped against better in the past? Re-united with past winning jock. Good luck....

[Exotic1]

I think I'll borrow from our good friends over at TVG.
Use or lose, Santa Anita style.

The 2nd is not a P-6 race, but it is part of the P-5 and the opener of the early P-4.....
#4-Perfectly Legal (6-1) Won his only race nicely, but the field he beat was down right slow....LOSE.
#6-The Cleaners (9-5) Trainer Machowsky got away with one running this dude for a 30k maiden last time. A 170k purchase, The Cleaners was coming out of some BTL races against good straight maidens. He looked really good traveling in his last, a measured victory.........as long as he doesn't scratch, USE.
Sidebar on this race, Can someone please explain to me the logic behind the race choices for Salutos Amigos. This horse could of been decent,but his confidence was crushed early on.

The carryover 6 starts in the 3rd.
I had nothing but trouble with the first 3 in this sequence.
I even switched over to the TVG PP's to try to get a different feel for the first half of the P-6 (I have found that if I'm not getting anything from one set of PP's, a switch to another can be helpful).
Once again, not a great feel for races 3-5.

Race 3:
#2-A Toast to You (5-2) I think the proper tell on him is he likes to be covered up for most of the race.In his races where he ran well he had company around him during most of the race. When he has run poorly, he has seen daylight early in the race and flattened out........USE.
#4-Zimmer (4-1) I haven't got a clue......you guys tell me.
#5-He's a Dance Star (2-1) This horse could be my downfall, I don't trust this guy. I understand he's fond of the hillside, and he should have a pace advantage, but he might have some holes in him. Two races back his line is deceiving, is reads 2hd but the 3rd place finisher ( Mr. Bossy Pants ) was on his way to victory when he lost his mind at the 1/16th pole.....HDS finishing line should of been 3rd by 2 lengths.
In HDS last race he was hard used early and just looked crummy the entire stretch. In his defense that was on the Holly Syn. and today it's the turf, but he ran well 3 back on the DMR Polly.....LOSE, he looked bad in his last.

Race 4....no clue, every horse that has run is slow.....no feel for the firsters one way or another.

Race 5....nothing looks good to me here.
I will note that the worlds clumsiest horse (Public Interest) has been gelded since his last debacle, and turned in a 59.1 bullet for a barn that will work them fast when they want a big race out of a good maiden.

Race 6:
#2-Warren's Joe T. (7-2) the first of 2 in here that looked horrid in the stretch of their last,the other would be.....
#3- Brown Boss ( 7-2), does the ml maker even watch these races ? ) it looked like BB suffered some kind of injury early in the stretch in his last.
It was ugly.......LOSE both Warren/BB.
#4 Red Sharp Humor (5-2) His last is a BTL, he showed a lot of try all the way to the wire in a heated front end tussle.......USE.
#7 Majestic Moment (8-1) Sneak Play alert. his last trip was miserable from the jump,much better than looked race.....USE.

Race 7:
#2 Mangita (4-1) This is a nice horse.
Coming off of a long layoff and trying the grass and a route for the first time this one ran a great race.Factor in her effortless way of going and you have a must USE.
#3 Blazen All Star (6-1) Beat a weak field where she was 3rd best......LOSE.
#4 Miss Well Molded (9-5) Might be the heaviest played horse in the P-6 today.Looked miserable falling apart in her last.....UGH......LOSE with a bullet.
#6 Tanquerray/#7 Lil Swiss Echo both have talent and are very nice horses.
Could be good.

Race 8:
#3 Runaway Que (2-1) ran bravely in defeat, didn't deserve to lose.....USE.
#5 Bluegrass Fox Trot (7-2) had a perfect trip, would not pass the 2 in front of him he should of blown by......Lose.
Note:The #2 Samurai Assault (8-1) had a miserable trip,could be a sleeper in here.

Good Luck everybody.

Thank you. I'll get into the card a bit later.

[GMB@BP]

In the 2nd at 7/2 I thought Salutos Amigos makes a lot of sense. He has run in some much faster races and should get a nice trip behind the speeds.

[Stillriledup]

In the 2nd at 7/2 I thought Salutos Amigos makes a lot of sense. He has run in some much faster races and should get a nice trip behind the speeds.

He could destroy these if he has his head into the game, he has a great win on the SA main 'way back when' this was a serious horse at one time.

[Stillriledup]

Helping OP

Leaning Nakatani in the 3rd race.

First time gelding on the 8 in Race 4 fyi. Tough race, thinking one of the firsters may get it done (2 or 3)

Race 5 i like 6s and 8s but very tough race, anything can win.

Race 6 i do like your 7 a bit in there, the 8 also can run on with pace meltdown.

Race 8 i also think your 2 horse can surprise, he got run right off the track last time on the first turn. The 9 also seems to have been "running on" in his races on tape, but again, this race is WIDE open.

[lamboguy]

race 2 i am not going to agree or disagree on THE CLEANERS. i am just going to leave the race alone

race 5 #9 PUBLIC INTEREST is a 5 yo maiden that didn't want to leave the gate last time. i am going to leave him alone.

the cared looks pretty tough to me, don't have any opinions for or against that are worthwhile.

[dasch]

I think I'll borrow from our good friends over at TVG.
Use or lose, Santa Anita style.

The carryover 6 starts in the 3rd.
I had nothing but trouble with the first 3 in this sequence.
I even switched over to the TVG PP's to try to get a different feel for the first half of the P-6 (I have found that if I'm not getting anything from one set of PP's, a switch to another can be helpful).
Once again, not a great feel for races 3-5.

Race 3:
#2-A Toast to You (5-2) I think the proper tell on him is he likes to be covered up for most of the race.In his races where he ran well he had company around him during most of the race. When he has run poorly, he has seen daylight early in the race and flattened out........USE.

#4-Zimmer (4-1) I haven't got a clue......you guys tell me.

#5-He's a Dance Star (2-1) This horse could be my downfall, I don't trust this guy. I understand he's fond of the hillside, and he should have a pace advantage, but he might have some holes in him. Two races back his line is deceiving, is reads 2hd but the 3rd place finisher ( Mr. Bossy Pants ) was on his way to victory when he lost his mind at the 1/16th pole.....HDS finishing line should of been 3rd by 2 lengths.
In HDS last race he was hard used early and just looked crummy the entire stretch. In his defense that was on the Holly Syn. and today it's the turf, but he ran well 3 back on the DMR Polly.....LOSE, he looked bad in his last.


Race 6:
#2-Warren's Joe T. (7-2) the first of 2 in here that looked horrid in the stretch of their last,the other would be.....

#3- Brown Boss ( 7-2), does the ml maker even watch these races ? ) it looked like BB suffered some kind of injury early in the stretch in his last.
It was ugly.......LOSE both Warren/BB.

#4 Red Sharp Humor (5-2) His last is a BTL, he showed a lot of try all the way to the wire in a heated front end tussle.......USE.

#7 Majestic Moment (8-1) Sneak Play alert. his last trip was miserable from the jump,much better than looked race.....USE.

Race 7:
#2 Mangita (4-1) This is a nice horse.
Coming off of a long layoff and trying the grass and a route for the first time this one ran a great race.Factor in her effortless way of going and you have a must USE.

#3 Blazen All Star (6-1) Beat a weak field where she was 3rd best......LOSE.

#4 Miss Well Molded (9-5) Might be the heaviest played horse in the P-6
today.Looked miserable falling apart in her last.....UGH......LOSE with a bullet.

Good Luck everybody.

3rd race:

#4 Zimmer- Working well for his return, his prior SoCal race is good enough to win this race and Mike Smith jumps on again today.........USE

#5 He's a Dance Star- Be careful throwing this one out, he is going to have a big lead early and its never wise to throw almost any horse that will be a few lengths in front on the downhill course.....USE

6th race:

#3 Brown Boss- wide both turns in his last race, made a nice middle move into a fast pace to be only a head off the lead in the middle of the track on the 2nd turn, then excusably/expectedly tired in the stretch. The top 2 finishers in that race came from last. He is dropping in class and there is a 29 day gap in his works but it was AFTER his normal post race work(he worked 18 days after the nov 30th race) so that tells me he came out of the last race ok and then something happened(maybe got sick?) and he does have a nice 1:00 1/5 work 7 days ago. Talamo also keeps the mount so even though there are some red flags the trainer might just be taking advantage of those so I wont throw him until he actually runs a bad race which he has not for quite some time.........USE

#7 Majestic Moment- nice catch on the troubled trip last time out, he should run MUCH better today. I think the morning line maker wants to bet him as well making him 8-1..........USE

7th race:

#3 Blazen All Star- Throw out at your own risk. She has a few races that if she repeats can win this race. She has also not raced for 6 weeks which is the perfect spacing for a top effort.........USE

#4 Miss Well Molded- I agree. No excuse to run as poorly as she did last time out and now drops to where they are almost certain to lose her and it looks like they want to, I do too......LOSE

Good luck!

[Clocker]

3rd race:

#5 He's a Dance Star- Be careful throwing this one out, he is going to have a big lead early and its never wise to throw almost any horse that will be a few lengths in front on the downhill course.....USE


His last race was taken off turf, so that is excusable. And he was claimed out of that race. And laid off for a couple of months. The bad news is that he is 7 years old and seems to need a lay off after every race. I say he is a USE, but not a straight win bet. He certainly appears to be the sole early speed in the race.

[Stillriledup]

His last race was taken off turf, so that is excusable. And he was claimed out of that race. And laid off for a couple of months. The bad news is that he is 7 years old and seems to need a lay off after every race. I say he is a USE, but not a straight win bet. He certainly appears to be the sole early speed in the race.

You know, i originally thought the same thing....but then looking at his PPs, this horse ALWAYS races well no matter what the surface and his last race is his only really bad performance...so, that got me concerned that a horse who ran well 10 times in a row finally flopped. This is a very game horse who will probably bounce back, but just forgiving that race is not something that i'm just going to automatically do. Gotta see how he looks warming up, i'm leaning to the 7, hopefully closers can do some business here.

[Exotic1]

I have to get caught up here.

[maclr11]

He's a dance star as a loose threat in race 3
Wide open middle races an then runaway que in the last.

5/2,3,5/1,2,4,5,8,9/3,4,6/2,4/3
$216

Wish I could use the 2

Also late p4's
1,2,4,5,6,8,9,10/3,4,6/2,4/3 $24
1,2,4,5,8,9/3,4,6/4/3,4,5 $27

[Stillriledup]

I like Hotradamus here, Schrupp is telling the world to bet against this one, so, that's good enough for me! :D

Tough race. I'm also a fan of Royal FJ in general, if he can run his race, he might be a threat.

[hkarsen]

my pick 6 single, red sharp humor to go wire to wire first off the claim for Pender in race 6...

im hearing lots of different opinions on that key race, especially on brown boss, should be interesting...

2-5-7 to kick it off here!

[lamboguy]

in race 4 i am going with #5 NEW ORDER in a bad field. this looks to be the easiest race of his life so far. i am hoping he finds the front within 3/8ths of a mile into the race and gets brave. if he doesn't he will have his same regular result.

[precocity]

race 4
like the- :1:

[Stillriledup]

I'm going with a win bet on the 7 in Race 6.

Also, some exactas:

78/234678
234678/78

[Maximillion]

I like the :2: Warren's Joe T in race 6.Think he may still have some upside and should at least be somewhat tactical here.Price should be decent.

[Exotic1]

I'm going with a win bet on the 7 in Race 6.

Also, some exactas:

78/234678
234678/78

You had the #7 and #8 boxed but you shouldn't have diluted it. Come back and press the #7 and #8.

Good call !

[dasch]

Miss Well Molded tricked us. I know Bejarano wont ride them if they have gone bad but its hard for me to bet an Oneill dropper after they run a bad effort. MOST of the time they lose but the Cal bred droppers can always be tricky due to lack of races.

Its ok you need to have an opinion and stand by it good or bad.

[Exotic1]

SA race 8.

3/5/1,8,9.

1 is tricky, he looks like a closing sprinter not a two turn horse but connections had him two turns to start with. Think I'm tossing the #4.

[Stillriledup]

You had the #7 and #8 boxed but you shouldn't have diluted it. Come back and press the #7 and #8.

Good call !

Thanks. I did have 78 and 87 for extra. ;)

[dasch]

SA race 8.

3/5/1,8,9.

1 is tricky, he looks like a closing sprinter not a two turn horse but connections had him two turns to start with. Think I'm tossing the #4.

Dont leave the #2 out. He should run a big race here.

Good luck!

[Stillriledup]

SA race 8.

3/5/1,8,9.

1 is tricky, he looks like a closing sprinter not a two turn horse but connections had him two turns to start with. Think I'm tossing the #4.

Hard race to bet the chalk. I think this race calls for a price play.

[Exotic1]

Miss Well Molded tricked us. I know Bejarano wont ride them if they have gone bad but its hard for me to bet an Oneill dropper after they run a bad effort. MOST of the time they lose but the Cal bred droppers can always be tricky due to lack of races.

Its ok you need to have an opinion and stand by it good or bad.

Come on, it was a smart play. #4 seemed like her best efforts were on the the lead and today she wasn't going to get it. She had soft fractions prior. With any real competition the obvious closer #6 would have been at the wire. Bejarano made the difference.

[Stillriledup]

after all that the dumb chalk wins. :bang:

[Exotic1]

Thanks. I did have 78 and 87 for extra. ;)

Good play !!

[dasch]

Come on, it was a smart play. #4 seemed like her best efforts were on the the lead and today she wasn't going to get it. She had soft fractions prior. With any real competition the obvious closer #6 would have been at the wire. Bejarano made the difference.

I am pretty black and white on these kind of things. If I pick a horse to "lose" and it wins, no matter the scenario, I consider it a bad decision because any and all pace/trips will/should all be factored into my decision.

[Stillriledup]

Good play !!

Thanks, a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while!! :D

[Exotic1]

P6 was coming back 490k with the #8 who was acting up for a very long time. Came back 75k with the #3.

[Exotic1]

I am pretty black and white on these kind of things. If I pick a horse to "lose" and it wins, no matter the scenario, I consider it a bad decision because any and all pace/trips will/should all be factored into my decision.

Not sure about that. We're supposed to play the odds offered vs. perceived odds (something I can't seem to master, give it another 20 yrs and I'll get the hang of it). You thought the #4 was undervalued and you were probably right. In terms of winning the race and getting to the next vertical, yes you didn't succeed. Put it this way, if the #4 was 10-1 you may not have picked her to lose with her shortcomings.