Holy Bull discussion

[letswastemoney]

Coup de Grace cuts the corner on the first turn, gains good position up front, switches to the outside turning for home and wins. What do you think?

[PhantomOnTour]

The key to the race for me is Almost Famous, who looks like the boss speed of this race, but comes in off a layoff with a spotty work tab.
His last race was nice - got tired late, but ran that bunch off their feet thru a pretty quick 6f split.
The field is very closely matched on final numbers...too close actually for me.
Unless I get an outrageous price on a horse I deem a contender it will most likely be a PASS for me.
Good race though :ThmbUp:

[Valuist]

The key to the race for me is Almost Famous, who looks like the boss speed of this race, but comes in off a layoff with a spotty work tab.
His last race was nice - got tired late, but ran that bunch off their feet thru a pretty quick 6f split.
The field is very closely matched on final numbers...too close actually for me.
Unless I get an outrageous price on a horse I deem a contender it will most likely be a PASS for me.
Good race though :ThmbUp:

Didn't he scratch out of a stakes at the Fair Grounds in December? I seem to remember they had him at a real low price, 6-5ish on the m/l, but he was withdrawn.

[jerry-g]

I'm going with the M/L favorite, Cario Prince. He has won at this level and it
looks like McLaughlin has got him in form for this race. He's got the highest
dirt speed of any other, highest class, and best late pace. His last race was
at Aquaduct where he lost only by a nose in a G-2. I'm sure his odds will
be prohibitive for betting.

[speed]

Wicked strong's kick the last 1/8 was just as his name suggests. Not many 2yo's could have finished up like that. Who knows what he will do with a fast pace but he has serious ability and if 6/1 is interesting.

[Robert Fischer]

This is a very nice field. It is a legit G2 field on paper, and there's some possibility that when you look back at the field later in the year it will look like a G1.

Some of the horses that fail here, will come back to redeem themselves.

[Robert Fischer]

The 4th race on the same card also has some fairly nice 3yos.

[raybo]

So far, it looks like these are my win contenders, in ranked order (I'll need 5/2 odds for betting):

7 - Cairo Prince
9 - Conquest Titan
11 - Intense Holiday
8 - Wicked Strong

[Grits]

The 4th race on the same card also has some fairly nice 3yos.

So does the 6th, but nicer, though maidens going only a mile. A 650K, a 425K, a 375K, a 270K, all FTS or 2nd out, along with other entries. Too, a modest priced Pletcher trainee (Ramsey owned) by Invasor, out of a dam by Holy Bull. It would be cool if this last one won it, the day's top billed G2 on the dam's side.

[Robert Fischer]

So does the 6th, but nicer, though maidens going only a mile. A 650K, a 425K, a 375K, a 270K, all FTS or 2nd out, along with other entries. Too, a modest priced Pletcher trainee (Ramsey owned) by Invasor, out of a dam by Holy Bull. It would be cool if this last one won it, the day's top billed G2 on the dam's side.

Good call, another nice race.

[Shemp Howard]

I fancy Wicked Strong Win-Place and on top and bottom exactas with Cairo Prince and Intense Holiday.

[SandyW]

I fancy Wicked Strong Win-Place and on top and bottom exactas with Cairo Prince and Intense Holiday.

I am going to box the three of them in an exacta.

[Thebigguy]

Coup de Grace cuts the corner on the first turn, gains good position up front, switches to the outside turning for home and wins. What do you think?

I think its a three horse race. I also think the morning line is way off.
I have two A's and one b/u slash B.

The 7 and 8 are my A's and the 6 is my b/u.
I dont think anyone else can win. I do like Mr. Speaker he is more of a flyer that he will move up on dirt, I think the morning line is way off with him at 5-1 and Wicked Strong at 8-1. Wicked Strong should be the second choice behind Cario Prince. The Remsen will turn out to be a very good race.

[Thebigguy]

So far, it looks like these are my win contenders, in ranked order (I'll need 5/2 odds for betting):

7 - Cairo Prince
9 - Conquest Titan
11 - Intense Holiday
8 - Wicked Strong

Cleary you will get 5-2 on three of them. So you bet all three too win? Makes no sense to me.

[raybo]

Cleary you will get 5-2 on three of them. So you bet all three too win? Makes no sense to me.

Unless I think one of them will move below 5/2 after they enter the gate, then I would just bet the other 2 horses. If there are 3 at or above 5/2, and I think they will all go off at that or higher, yes I will bet all 3.

5/2 odds gets me a small profit (at a $2 bet, 5/2 pays $7 and only $6 would be bet total, so I make a slight profit if the 5/2 wins). If the other 2 are higher odds and either wins then I make a larger profit.

Win bets are only cash flow support for my superfecta play, so I'm not looking to make a killing with my win bets.

[Thebigguy]

Unless I think one of them will move below 5/2 after they enter the gate, then I would just bet the other 2 horses. If there are 3 at or above 5/2, and I think they will all go off at that or higher, yes I will bet all 3.

5/2 odds gets me a small profit (at a $2 bet, 5/2 pays $7 and only $6 would be bet total, so I make a slight profit if the 5/2 wins). If the other 2 are higher odds and either wins then I make a larger profit.

Win bets are only cash flow support for my superfecta play, so I'm not looking to make a killing with my win bets.

So you get you're 4 contenders and then make the line of 5/2? How did you come up with those four horses?

[nomadpat]

I'm going with :11: Intense Holiday. Thought he shied a little from Wicked Strong in last and like the work pattern since then - think he'll come out more seasoned. Will put those two on top of any exactas. Don't like the :1: .

[Thebigguy]

For what its worth, the 9th race Saturday at Gulfstream feels ripe for a price.
I really like the #4 Hunting Hill and the #8 Guard the Lines, both are 8-1 morning line. Would also use #7 Calm Water she is 4-1 morning line, but feel like she will be bet. The morning line favorite is the #12 All Star Kitten, I really dont believe she is much horse and am excited to play against her. Even the #3 Innate Grace is worth using at 20-1 morning line. Going first time turf w/ a decent turf family.

[NJ Stinks]

I like Financial Mogul. He had to wait last time out in the Nashua. I wish Violette did a little better off a layoff but that stat is just going to help the price.

I don't know what to make of the Remsen. About the only thing I can say is nobody should have quit with those fractions.

[precocity]

im betting that pletcher colt :11: dont ask me why im too drunk :lol:

[KidCapper]

I'll take a stab with the :8: in here for Jerkins. Finished right behind the 3-1 ML favorite in the G2 Remsen & Castellano jumps off the undefeated Brown colt to ride here. That and 8-1 on the ML give this one a chance.

[Rise Over Run]

I'll take a stab with the :8: in here for Jerkins. Finished right behind the 3-1 ML favorite in the G2 Remsen & Castellano jumps off the undefeated Brown colt to ride here. That and 8-1 on the ML give this one a chance.
The Gulfstream lines are notoriously bad, he's got 4-1 or lower all over him.

[wonatthewire1]

I'll check out 3 of them when the odds are up
No particular order
:2: - Financial Mogul - others mentioned the Violette lay off angle which I don't like either. One plus - worked him at 8F a week ago which is a bit unusual

:7: - Cairo Prince - working well and has a GR2 win already, bounced a bit with figs in last race and still almost won

:8: - Wicked Song - similar feelings as Cairo Prince; looks like he's coming into race working well.

[raybo]

So you get you're 4 contenders and then make the line of 5/2? How did you come up with those four horses?

My program tests tracks in 11 different rankings methods, I use the ranking method that works best at each track. The program also produces a minimum odds report with data from .01/1 or higher odds through 11/1 or higher odds, showing number of races played, hit rates, ROI, and profit/loss. I use the minimum odds level that produces the best combination of number of plays, hit rate, ROI, and profit, for that rankings method. At GP, my "PFV" rankings method works best (for my needs), at 5/2 or higher odds, playing the top 3 ranked horses in the "PFV" rankings method. The 4 horses I listed are the top 3 ranked "PFV" horses, but the 4th ranked horse tied with the 3rd ranked horse, so I have 4 win contenders. I am pretty sure at least one of those 4 will be under 5/2, so to make a profit, regardless of which of the other 3 horses wins, I need 5/2 odds or higher on those 3 remaining horses. If the horse that I didn't bet, the one that is under 5/2 odds, beats me, then he beats me, it's just another loss, like any other loss.

In a field of this size, 11 horses, any individual horse in the field is more likely to lose than to win, so not betting the low odds horse is not that big of a risk. Plus I still have 3 horses I can make money on.

[classhandicapper]

The only thing about the Holy Bull that interests me is the fact that the Remsen Stakes had a ridiculously slow pace.

Because of that, you could argue that Wicked Strong and Intense Holiday finished better than Cairo Prince and represent good value. But I've also seen instances of these extremely slow paces where who finished best was not an indication of who was actually best, just who had the best late speed when none of the horses were used early. In the rematch, the same horse won, just more conclusively when the pace was honest. I prefer betting these horses that closed off slow paces when there is back form that indicates they are actually better. So IMO, you need a bit more price to speculate on what you haven't seen yet.

With so many other horses in the race also eligible to step up strongly and run a new top, I can't see how I can get into this race without a very good price. There are no short priced horses to hate. It's a terrific race.

[Robert Fischer]

Wicked Strong's pedigree sure is easy to like .

Hard Spun
----------->Charismatic
------------------------->With Approval
----------------------------------------->Copelan


DI = 2.27 CD = 0.50

http://www.pedigreequery.com/wicked+strong

[Ocala Mike]

I'm on the :8: , WICKED STRONG, also. Each race better than the one before, and will certainly be finishing in here. Afraid of Shug's :6: .

[CincyHorseplayer]

If you set aside the extreme pace scenarios in the pace run lines from the BC Juv and Remsen(that's the only way I can find a way into this)a lot of them look good.I too like Wicked and especially that 1:40 mile work.Cairo is legitimate but not at this price.Lot of options and hopefully price if you are right.

[iceknight]

I looked at the PPs and thought ":8: Wicked Strong looks good and also :7: Cairo Prince.. but then I see most of the board has them on their radar..

Might just play a small super with 8 - 2 - 7 and 11. Agreeing 100% with Shemp Howard's post earlier in otherthread (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=110385)

Looks like a nice race!
Also betting a small show bet on :5: Our Caravan since no one is talking about that one :lol:

[SuitedAces]

#11 Intense Holiday

[Stillriledup]

What happened to the 8? Massive rider change, looked super on tape, looked great warming up....couldnt run a yard, not even one step.

Not one.

[Robert Fischer]

Cairo Prince MUCH! the best.

He looked like a triple crown contender with the maturity to handle a little adversity. He ended up a little wider than they had hoped, but Saez and Cairo Prince didn't even look like it affected them.

Some rough riding down inside between the 4 and 1.

[Ocala Mike]

Yes, that was ugly for the :8: . Was he giving the rider trouble loading? I'm firing blanks everywhere today.

[Bullet Plane]

The only thing about the Holy Bull that interests me is the fact that the Remsen Stakes had a ridiculously slow pace.

Because of that, you could argue that Wicked Strong and Intense Holiday finished better than Cairo Prince and represent good value. But I've also seen instances of these extremely slow paces where who finished best was not an indication of who was actually best, just who had the best late speed when none of the horses were used early. In the rematch, the same horse won, just more conclusively when the pace was honest. I prefer betting these horses that closed off slow paces when there is back form that indicates they are actually better. So IMO, you need a bit more price to speculate on what you haven't seen yet.

With so many other horses in the race also eligible to step up strongly and run a new top, I can't see how I can get into this race without a very good price. There are no short priced horses to hate. It's a terrific race.

I was ready to send it in on the 8, when I read this...

I've seen this a bunch of times as well....

Wheww...dodged a bullet!

[Grits]

So far, it looks like these are my win contenders, in ranked order (I'll need 5/2 odds for betting):

7 - Cairo Prince
9 - Conquest Titan
11 - Intense Holiday
8 - Wicked Strong

I hope you bet the tri instead. :-)

[raybo]

I hope you bet the tri instead. :-)

I bet 9 11 8 to win (odds on 7 were too low) and the $1 super 7 9 w 7 9 11 w 7 9 11 8 1 w 7 9 11 8 1 4

Nice super payout.

Pretty good race! Thought the win would be a bit closer but Cairo looks for real.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I bet 9 11 8 to win (odds on 7 were too low) and the $1 super 7 9 w 7 9 11 w 7 9 11 8 1 w 7 9 11 8 1 4

Nice super payout.

Pretty good race! Thought the win would be a bit closer but Cairo looks for real.

That's awesome.Took a legitimate favorite and made 2 G's=oh yeah!

I had the winners of the 1st and last and you outshined me.That's why I take notes from you brother! :cool:

[nijinski]

So far, it looks like these are my win contenders, in ranked order (I'll need 5/2 odds for betting):

7 - Cairo Prince
9 - Conquest Titan
11 - Intense Holiday
8 - Wicked Strong


Well Done :ThmbUp:

[raybo]

That's awesome.Took a legitimate favorite and made 2 G's=oh yeah!

I had the winners of the 1st and last and you outshined me.That's why I take notes from you brother! :cool:

Thanks! The 7 was a legitimate favorite, but low priced horses can be used on top in supers if you have good odds ranked horses below it. That was the case in this race. Of course I was hoping the 9 would win, but he was just too far behind early to catch the 7. Either way, if I hit the super it was going to pay good enough. Really, the structure of the ticket was easy, as the program got the order right on the top 3 finishers. I almost put the 4 on the 3rd row too, as it ranked a bit higher in the EPP+PFV method than the PFV method, but decided to just put him on the 4th row. If he'd gotten 3rd I would have been a bit upset - LOL!

[raybo]

Well Done :ThmbUp:

Thanks!! But I just created the program, the program spit out the rankings. It's primarily a win/exacta program, but occasionally it does what it did today. I did very little handicapping and that was on the bottom of the ticket only.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Thanks! The 7 was a legitimate favorite, but low priced horses can be used on top in supers if you have good odds ranked horses below it. That was the case in this race. Of course I was hoping the 9 would win, but he was just too far behind early to catch the 7. Either way, if I hit the super it was going to pay good enough. Really, the structure of the ticket was easy, as the program got the order right on the top 3 finishers. I almost put the 4 on the 3rd row too, as it ranked a bit higher in the EPP+PFV method than the PFV method, but decided to just put him on the 4th row. If he'd gotten 3rd I would have been a bit upset - LOL!

Allright it's Saturday night and I know we both needed a breather!Raybo hits his mark he gets his theme song.Here is your coup de grace to the mutual pool.Love and enjoy!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yd972J6f4IY

[precocity]

good going raybo :ThmbUp:
hit the tri for a buck and went across on the :11:
went to choctaw casino had a blast...this guy up there hit that super for 2 bucks straight.... :lol: he was a happy camper, wouldn't have known if he was yelling I hit the super straight... :lol: about 5 min later he showed me the ticket?

[Exotic1]

So far, it looks like these are my win contenders, in ranked order (I'll need 5/2 odds for betting):

7 - Cairo Prince
9 - Conquest Titan
11 - Intense Holiday
8 - Wicked Strong

Great call !!

The outside posts at GP were the question but you answered it.

[taxicab]

The way Cairo Prince mopped the floor with this bunch, I would have to think that the Honor Code camp would be tickled to death.
In the Remsen Honor Code was forced to move earlier then he prefers(and on the slower inside portion of the track to boot), and he came back on to out game todays hero.
Flattered.

[NJ Stinks]

Congrats, Raybo! :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[TheGarMan]

I learned two things today:

Cairo Prince looks legit, and never doubt Raybo. :)

[classhandicapper]

I was ready to send it in on the 8, when I read this...

I've seen this a bunch of times as well....

Wheww...dodged a bullet!


No problem.

IMO slow paces are very difficult to decipher (especially among lightly raced horses) because they have a different impact on different horses.

1. If the horse is much better than the competition, the slow pace will often cause the horse to run a slower final time than it is capable of. It will finish strongly, but have a lot of reserve energy after the finish even if driven to the wire.

2. If the horse is cheaper (especially cheap speed), the slow pace will often cause the horse to run a faster final time that it is typically capable of.

3. In many cases, the slow pace will bring them all closer together at the finish than they really are. It's hard to separate yourself when everyone is running fast late.

This is sort of an application of class. You don't always know what's in the tank until a horse's reserves are tested when the competition gets thick and the race is very competitive etc....

IMO the stretch drive can sometimes be misleading. All that's telling you is who is faster for 2-3 furlongs when everyone is fresh. Usually the better horse is also faster in that kind of situation, but not always.

[classhandicapper]

I'm just happy to see a son of Pioneer of the Nile doing so well. IMO, he got a bum rap.

Those were the days when synthetics were relatively new. The paces were often very slow and caused slow final times. It was also before Beyer realized that he had to change his figure making process for synth races. So POTN looked slow on Beyers and got trashed a bit. But he wasn't that bad at all.

Even is Derby wasn't that bad. He did lose to Mine That Bird, but MTB got a perfect up the rail trip that day and you could argue that the inside path was a little better that day despite the slop. POTN was outside being used and hung around for second. Nothing wrong with a 2nd in the Derby, even a mediocre one.

IMO, had he not gone bad and had a few more chances to run on dirt he would have proven to be a lot better than his "Beyer" diminished reputation.

So maybe his kids will prove what he didn't get a chance to prove on the track.

[raybo]

Congrats, Raybo! :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Thanks NJ, we all have our 15 minutes of fame I suppose - LOL.

[raybo]

I learned two things today:

Cairo Prince looks legit, and never doubt Raybo. :)

:lol:

Well, I do try to NOT lead people astray too often.

I still have a long way to go to erase my failure to place my $12 superfecta wager on the 2009 Derby. Mine That Bird's 50/1 odds messed with my mind a bit and caused me to hesitate, and I didn't place the bet. $143K takes a while to regroup! My program at the time had the first 3 finishers ranked in order and the 4th finisher ranked 5th. :bang:

[raybo]

Allright it's Saturday night and I know we both needed a breather!Raybo hits his mark he gets his theme song.Here is your coup de grace to the mutual pool.Love and enjoy!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yd972J6f4IY

Thanks Rod! The day ended much better than it started, for sure!! As for the YouTube vid - :eek: :lol:

[classhandicapper]

Thanks NJ, we all have our 15 minutes of fame I suppose - LOL.

Good job coming up with a good bet in that one.

[raybo]

Good job coming up with a good bet in that one.

Thanks! I did have 3 good win bets in the race, just got beat by my top win contender which I couldn't bet due to odds. Good bets are good bets, regardless of whether they win or not.