$0.50 Pick 4 Experiment

[Redboard]

I'm going to bet ten $0.50 Pick 4's over the next week using the following strategy:

- will not use past performance handicapping, only ML odds
- use 1x2x5xALL pattern, which will cost around $50
-all races in the sequence must have at least seven starters
-no more that one maiden race in the sequence
- the ALL will be the maiden race
- the "1" will be the shortest ML odds in the remaining sequence
- the "2" will be the shortest two odds in the sequence that add up to the lowest number of the remaining sequence
- the "5" will throw out the first two ML favorites.
- will use the following tracks: Oaklawn, Gulfstream, Tampa, Santa Anita, Fairgrounds.

[Redboard]

I'm going to start with Gulfstream Park - Monday, January 20, 2014.

R8: ALL / 3 / 6,9 / 4,6,9,10,11 = $60

[coachv30]

I like the strategy. Especially if one of your horses in the Five horse leg scratches you get the favorite as a back up. Good Luck!!

[Redboard]

Off to a rough start- one for four. In the first leg, a MSW, the favorite won, of course since I hit the all button. In the second leg, where I singled the favorite, he came in dead last. In the third leg, my 6 and 9 finished 8th and 5th respectively. In the last leg, where i threw out the first two favs, the favorite won. So, it was a sequence where the fav won in the first and last legs, but still paid $1,200 , which is a large payout for having two ML favs win. So the pattern was 1st x 5th x 8th x 1st , as far as the ML favorites of each leg.

Bet: $60
Returned: $0
ROI: -$60


Tampa Bay Downs - Wednesday, January 22, 2014
R3: All / 1 / 3,7 / 2,3,5,7,8 = $40

[teddy]

Sounds like you will get a lesson or two from this on value in the pick 4. I prefer to key one horse and spread in the feature race at SA. ANYTIME the fave loses the feature you get big payoffs. Forgotten third and fourth choices are rarely used in that leg.

[Redboard]

Did a little better yesterday, three for four. My single, Spring A Latch, in the 4th race, never fired, but again, the favorite won where I hit the all button, which sucks. Encouraging to see one of the middle-shots win in the last leg. Yesterday's pattern was: 1st by 4th by 1st by 3rd

For some reason, I can't get the payout of Wednesday's early pick 4 at Tampa. It's in the charts at neither Equibase nor DRF. Does anybody know why?

Totals

Bet: $60
Returned: $0
ROI: -$60
(yesterday didn't count, until I find out what happened to that pick 4.)

Fairgrounds Thursday, January 23, 2014

R2: 1,8 / All / 6 / 2,6,7,8,9 = $40

[Redboard]

Hard to find a sequence of races with the parameters I'm looking for, but I found one for Thursday at Fairgrounds.

Fair Grounds - Thursday, January 30, 2014

R6: 2 / 1,2,5,6,9 (assuming the 10 runs) / 4,6 / All = $45


Totals
Bet: $100
Returned: $0
ROI: -$100

[AstroTiger]

Red, I am very interested in your experiment here. What I'm curious about is why in the race with 5 horses are you throwing out the 2 favorites? I understand to get the price, but if you are keying the lowest and 2nd lowest ML odds for 2 of the legs, then by default, the race with the 3rd "lowest" ML odds will have a better payout.

It seems to me that when using the 1x2x5xAll, the 5 that you choose would be the 5 horses with the lowest odds in the race with the 3rd highest ML favorite, without necessarily throwing out the top 2 ML favs in that race.

Does that make sense? I have been following this board for a month or two, and I joined just to ask this question :D