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Tape Reader
01-18-2014, 08:52 PM
Most recent high, SPY did, S&P future did not. IMO, bearish divergence. Any thoughts?

Saratoga_Mike
01-18-2014, 09:41 PM
Could you please elaborate on your thoughts or put this into historical context (how often this happens)? Thanks.

Tape Reader
01-18-2014, 10:29 PM
Could you please elaborate on your thoughts or put this into historical context (how often this happens)? Thanks.

It has been my experience that the future leads the cash, short term. I aint an evidence type guy.

lamboguy
01-19-2014, 06:30 AM
while every expert in the world is calling for a "stage 5" decline in gold, i am pretty sure that $1179 is the bottom. i would not be that surprised to see gold make it back to its natural high this year of $1859.

my immediate target for gold is $1365 and if it takes that out $1425.

PICSIX
01-19-2014, 09:07 AM
while every expert in the world is calling for a "stage 5" decline in gold, i am pretty sure that $1179 is the bottom. i would not be that surprised to see gold make it back to its natural high this year of $1859.

my immediate target for gold is $1365 and if it takes that out $1425.

Gold has been in a Weinstein Stage 4 decline since 03/28/2013. Stage 4 is defined as price below a falling(declining) 30-week moving average.

Selling pressure continues to have the upper hand at this time.

lamboguy
01-19-2014, 10:24 AM
Gold has been in a Weinstein Stage 4 decline since 03/28/2013. Stage 4 is defined as price below a falling(declining) 30-week moving average.

Selling pressure continues to have the upper hand at this time.the Weinstein Stage 4 has always been right until its been proven wrong. and that has happened plenty of times in the past. i did start the comment about the wave 5 possibilities. even if they are right, and the lows do break on gold, $1050 is that number.

since technical analysis is much like using numbers to handicap horses, it only tells part of the story. it can't predict that someone new is going to be walking into the store and either buying or returning items.

there have been so many mines boarded up recently while demand for gold has not decreased. the largest producer of gold is China, they are not allowed to sell 1 ounce of gold on the open market. what's mined in China stays in China. on top of that, they go out on the open market and buy gold lately at around $1200 per ounce. the deal with paper metals replacing physical metals seems to only work in the western world, Indians and Chinese are old fashioned, they want the real mccoy.

badcompany
01-19-2014, 03:16 PM
You can always find an indicator to confirm what you want to hear.

However, the price action is all you really need, and until I see otherwise, the trend for stocks is up; gold, down:


http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/null_zps8a592309.png

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/null_zps5edf27ee.png

Tape Reader
01-19-2014, 04:01 PM
You can always find an indicator to confirm what you want to hear.

However, the price action is all you really need, and until I see otherwise, the trend for stocks is up; gold, down:

I guess I should clarify that I am working with intraday time frames.

RaceBookJoe
01-24-2014, 01:22 PM
I guess I should clarify that I am working with intraday time frames.

Nice catch :ThmbUp:

badcompany
01-24-2014, 03:57 PM
Good call. Haven't a day this ugly in a while. 90% of s&p 500 is down.

whodoyoulike
01-24-2014, 04:18 PM
Good call. Haven't a day this ugly in a while. 90% of s&p 500 is down.

What website(s) do you use? I've seen % on the DOW but, there are only 30. I'm always interested in the S&P movements. Thanks.

badcompany
01-24-2014, 04:39 PM
What website(s) do you use? I've seen % on the DOW but, there are only 30. I'm always interested in the S&P movements. Thanks.

When I'm on the go, which is most of the time, I use an app called Stock Signals. I believe it's $20 but well worth it.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/null_zpsd771f774.png

RaceBookJoe
01-24-2014, 06:08 PM
What website(s) do you use? I've seen % on the DOW but, there are only 30. I'm always interested in the S&P movements. Thanks.

The S&P is much better to follow than the Dow, not just because of only 30 stocks but also because its cap-weighted. If you use an equal-weighted indice you will get a much better reading on internals. I like to follow the NYSEBPI. You can usually find something close to it like this one :

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$NYA50R,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

RaceBookJoe
01-24-2014, 06:11 PM
If that above link doesn't work, go to stockcharts.com and type in $NYA50R or $NYA150R its a p&f chart of how many stocks are above either the 50 or 150 ma.

Tape Reader
01-24-2014, 07:23 PM
Nice catch :ThmbUp:

Thank you. Any of you Fib/cycle Guys out there have any idea on support?

badcompany
01-24-2014, 08:32 PM
Thank you. Any of you Fib/cycle Guys out there have any idea on support?

Not a fib guy, but, from a long term trend standpoint, I would become concerned if we went back and tested those Sept & Oct lows of about SPY 165.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/null_zps5514f926.png

lamboguy
01-24-2014, 08:38 PM
the transports just gave back 6 months worth of gains in 6 1/2 hours today. i'd be concerned.

badcompany
01-24-2014, 08:56 PM
the transports just gave back 6 months worth of gains in 6 1/2 hours today. i'd be concerned.

There's an expression that markets are carried up but fall down. These sharp drops strike fear in the hearts of investors as we tend to project the move downward "The market dropped 3% in two days. At this rate I'll be wiped out in a month!"

The reality is that the market is 3% off an all-time high. For a long term trader this is no reason to bail.

Saratoga_Mike
01-25-2014, 02:49 PM
the transports just gave back 6 months worth of gains in 6 1/2 hours today. i'd be concerned.

It's never wise to ignore price action, but KSU (Kansas City Southern, a major rail player) weighed very heavily on the transports yesterday (down roughly 15%). KSU was priced for perfection and the Street had incorrectly modeled several 2014 volume growth drivers, imo. I wouldn't read anything into KSU's results, outside of numbers not matching rhetoric.

Saratoga_Mike
01-25-2014, 02:52 PM
There's an expression that markets are carried up but fall down. These sharp drops strike fear in the hearts of investors as we tend to project the move downward "The market dropped 3% in two days. At this rate I'll be wiped out in a month!"

The reality is that the market is 3% off an all-time high. For a long term trader this is no reason to bail.

Exactly....perspective is always good. Are you a trend investor or a trader?

badcompany
01-25-2014, 03:23 PM
Exactly....perspective is always good. Are you a trend investor or a trader?

The line between the two has always been blurry.

The bulk of my capital is in long term positions, 200-300 day sma.

However, I keep some dry powder for shorter term opportunities, 6-12 day sma.

So, the best answer to your question would be: both.

badcompany
01-25-2014, 03:32 PM
It's never wise to ignore price action, but KSU (Kansas City Southern, a major rail player) weighed very heavily on the transports yesterday (down roughly 15%). KSU was priced for perfection and the Street had incorrectly modeled several 2014 volume growth drivers, imo. I wouldn't read anything into KSU's results, outside of numbers not matching rhetoric.


This is Canadian Pacific. Not exactly a bearish looking chart.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/null_zps7367d768.png

lamboguy
01-25-2014, 03:54 PM
i always get scared out when i see high volume at the top a tank. it usually means that you are in a sustained downward trend.

RaceBookJoe
01-29-2014, 03:26 PM
Markets went ballistic at fomc announcement. Also, If anyone follows futures.. /NG has been off the hook recently, huge moves.

Valuist
01-29-2014, 04:30 PM
Fleckenstein on the market:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/huge-amount-downside-p-fleckenstein-194236277.html