AQU Race 6, 1/16

[Ocala Mike]

A real monkey puzzle of a mid-winter maiden race. 3 first-time starters, 5 second-time starters eligible for major improvement, a Pletcher shipper up from GP, and a horse 4/4 in the place hole on the rail.

I'm thinking that Pletcher's horse, the :5: , LATIN TUDOR, might be the one here. Why would they bother to ship him up north in January? Will probably be bet down from 10/1. The other one that scares me is the Parx shipper, the :2: , who will probably not be bet but may be the controlling speed.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Tough race for me to like anybody at what I assume the tote board will offer.

Really can't find a second timer to latch on to as one that looks like a candidate for big improvement at decent odds and for every first timer with something I like, she's got an equally compelling reason to not like.

I guess I'd take a shot at :6: William'sluckygray.

It looks like there ought to be/could be a strong pace with Cinnamonjellybean, Latin Tudor, and Magdalena Bay among those with a race looking likely to throw down early and Hey Kiddo eligible to press and perhaps even be the one to make the first move at the pace as it starts to wilt.

William'sluckygray has a couple of pretty nice moves from the gate and followed those up with a sharp three-eighths, which together suggests that she's probably capable of at least staying in touch with the pace if asked. But, with that last work at three-quarters, guessing they'll have dulled the edge a little bit and maybe have her a bit more settled into an even cadence. Hoping that the ability to break well and work fast, but deliberate change of attitude with the last work has her in a good spot throughout and hopefully good enough to wear down the pace at a solid price.

[lamboguy]

i am going to go to a different shipper in that race. #2 CINNAMONJELLY BEAN. i didn't play this horse the first time she run in Parx because i knew she couldn't beat the eventual winner, a John Servis horse. the horse came back and had a maintenance work at Parx, probably because the track is in pretty rough shape.

i would expect this horse to run somewhat better on her second start. the main problem i have is and it might just be in head after sending plenty of my own horses to Aqueduct for the first time, is that once over that surface does wonders for young horses.

[jk3521]

Alfredo Velazquez used to ship in with good success years back!

[PhantomOnTour]

The :1: looks like the commanding pace runner.
Ran very well last time behind runaway wire to wire winner.
Likely to sit close today and will be dangerous.

[PhantomOnTour]

Lambo's :2: may be long gone here, unless the bottom runner engages early. If they hook up then the :1: :3: can move into that duel and have a shot.
Interesting that the Chad Brown :3: is cold at 8-1. Came out of a fast race and has been working regularly :confused:


ex:
:1: :3: w :1: :2: :3: :10:
:2: w :1: :3:
win:
:1:

[Stillriledup]

Few notes from Race 6:

The 6 was a good pick, she had a nice stride, terrible rider, not sure why the guy was in the parking lot the entire way.

A Castellano Jr is about 25 lengths worse than the "Other Castellano" looks like an anvil on a horse.

The girl who trains the 9 does a good job with horses who have front bandages, dont be fooled, there's nothing wrong with her horses.

The 10 was probably overbet in hindsight, seemed a little on the small side, but she ran her heart out.

When a race looks "wide open" at the Big A, expect the chalk to finish 1-2.

[lamboguy]

i am going to go to a different shipper in that race. #2 CINNAMONJELLY BEAN. i didn't play this horse the first time she run in Parx because i knew she couldn't beat the eventual winner, a John Servis horse. the horse came back and had a maintenance work at Parx, probably because the track is in pretty rough shape.

i would expect this horse to run somewhat better on her second start. the main problem i have is and it might just be in head after sending plenty of my own horses to Aqueduct for the first time, is that once over that surface does wonders for young horses.out

whoever had the winner, nice pick

[PhantomOnTour]

The :1: looks like the commanding pace runner.
Ran very well last time behind runaway wire to wire winner.
Likely to sit close today and will be dangerous.
Well that turned out nicely

[Ocala Mike]

When a race looks "wide open" at the Big A, expect the chalk to finish 1-2.



Indeed! PhantomOnTour wasn't scared off by the :1: horse's 4 straight runner-up finishes. In retrospect, this one was perfectly suited to the race shape.

My :5: outran his odds, but, alas, I only bet him in exactas; thought the tri was huge (naturally, because I didn't have it).

Also, thought the :2: would make more of an impact.