Top Horse Analytics: 01/15/2014 GP

[Augenj]

Race predictions will be posted here after early scratches and late scratches if available.

Results will be posted after race charts become available.

[Augenj]

Race Cancellations (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/cancellations.html?SAP=TN)
Late Scratches (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechanges.html?SAP=TN)
Race Results (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/index.html?SAP=TN)

01/15/14, GP, Race 1, 12.40 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.01 CLAIMING. Purse $28,000
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $1 Bet 3 (Races 1-2-3)
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
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100.0000 :3: Simon Eyes [5/2] Davis D / Ward Wesley A.
098.2500 :2: Seve [3-1] Lanerie C J / Romans Dale L.
096.0708 :6: Kiton [4-1] Rosario J / Gray Elizabeth
094.7823 :7: Our Ritz [5-1] Gonzales J J / Tortora Emanuel
092.8394 4 Liberal Spin [8-1] Rocco. Jr. J / Romans Dale L.
092.7960 5 Celtics Stride [8-1] Leyva J C / Kaplan William A.
092.1587 1 Bea Wildcat [10-1] Zayas E J / Rossi Albino A.
091.8600 8 Native Gold [12-1] Saez L / De Paulo Michael P.

01/15/14, GP, Race 2, 1.09 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.01 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $15,750
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $1 Bet 3 (Races 2-3-4) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
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100.0000 :5: Sofialeonor [2-1] Olivero C / Bezara Agustin C.
097.7269 :4: Purecraziluck [3-1] Zayas E J / Ziadie Kirk
095.4682 :6: Pretty Peggy Fu [4-1] Castellano J / Garoffalo Jose
094.2054 :1: The Bookkeeper [6-1] Sanchez J / Wilensky Herman
093.8630 7 Late to the Party [6-1] Rispoli M / Carey Charles A.
092.9162 2 Lori's Image [8-1] Solis M / Rose Barry R.
091.7287 3 Elsie's Image [12-1] Maysonett F Z / Rose Barry R.

01/15/14, GP, Race 3, 1.38 ET
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.38.01 CLAIMING. Purse $27,250
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $1 Bet 3 (Races 3-4-5)
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
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100.0000 :7: Farmers' Club [3-1] Rocco. Jr. J / Sheppard Jonathan E.
098.3552 :2: Trusted Choice [7/2] Rosario J / Hennig Mark A.
095.7221 :11: Cantinero [5-1] Davis D / Ward Wesley A.
094.8562 :3: Starship Avenger [5-1] Chamafi J / Dwoskin Steven
093.0850 10 Roman's Avenue [12-1] Lopez P / Coletti. Sr. Edward J.
093.0717 1 Face the Race [12-1] Contreras L / LeCesse Michael A.
093.0052 6 Grownmencry [6-1] Lezcano J / Croft Barry N.
092.6797 12 Dreamalot [8-1] Desormeaux K J / Hess. Jr. Robert B.
091.4676 4 Big Sam [15-1] Bocachica O / Farro Patricia
091.1254 8 Forever Conga [20-1] Gonzales J J / Rizo Juan P.
*Scratch* 9 Top Excitement [20-1] Madrid S O / Catanese. III Joseph C
*Scratch* 5 Navajo Ca Lo [8-1] Davis D / Zito Nicholas P.

01/15/14, GP, Race 4, 2.07 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.01 CLAIMING. Purse $21,250
$1 Bet 3 (Races 4-5-6)
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
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100.0000 :4: Nifty Shindig [2-1] Rosario J / Maker Michael J.
096.7611 :6: Best Behavior [3-1] Castellano J / Gonzalez Nicholas
094.2745 :1: Livin Peace [5-1] Lopez P / Plesa. Jr. Edward
093.6466 :5: Gene's Blue Moon [6-1] Bravo J / Plesa. Jr. Edward
092.8091 7 Illusional Sky [8-1] Davis D / Attard Sid C.
092.7496 3 Western Charm [8-1] Cruz M R / DiMauro Stephen L.
092.0455 2 Jessie Can Mambo [12-1] Carmouche K / Pointer Norman R.
091.9760 8 Wonderfully [12-1] Contreras L / Attard Tino

01/15/14, GP, Race 5, 2.36 ET
1M [Turf] 1.31.02 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $54,500
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $1 Bet 3 (Races 5-6-7) / $.20 Rainbow 6 (Races 5-10)
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
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100.0000 :8: Via Villaggio [5/2] Rosario J / Maker Michael J.
097.8684 :2: Long Face [3-1] Leparoux J R / Clement Christophe
095.8929 :4: Alaura Michele [4-1] Castellano J / Pletcher Todd A.
093.9558 :6: Dene Court [12-1] Lezcano J / Casse Mark E.
093.3451 9 (F)Triple Charm (GB) [6-1] Bravo J / Clement Christophe
092.2354 7 Royal Fury [8-1] Saez L / Lynch Brian A.
091.8243 1 Molly Morgan [20-1] Lanerie C J / Romans Dale L.
091.4909 3 Gamay Noir [10-1] Rocco. Jr. J / Gorder Kellyn
090.4502 11 Peggy Joyce [12-1] Lopez P / Broome Edwin T.
*Scratch* 5 Ana Luisa (BRZ) [8/5] Rosario J / Pletcher Todd A.
*Scratch* 10 Giant Cats Eye [2-1] Lopez P / Plesa. Jr. Edward

01/15/14, GP, Race 6, 3.05 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.33.04 CLAIMING. Purse $35,000
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $1 Bet 3 (Races 6-7-8) / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 6-10)
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
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100.0000 :6: Megalith [5/2] Saez L / Vivian David A.
098.2106 :7: Runyon Humor [3-1] Davis D / Bradley William B.
096.0829 :4: Uptown Anthem [4-1] Leyva J C / Kaplan William A.
094.8705 :2: Isutalkintome [5-1] Castellano J / Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.
092.8970 1 Sinorice [8-1] Lezcano J / Zito Nicholas P.
092.8444 8 Where's the Baby [8-1] Jaen A / Kassen David C.
091.8436 5 Playing a Joke [12-1] Rocco. Jr. J / Cibelli Jane
091.8144 3 D'marin [12-1] Lopez P / Volk Scott J.

01/15/14, GP, Race 7, 3.34 ET
5F [Turf] 00.53.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $30,000
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $1 Bet 3 (Races 7-8-9) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 7-8-9-10)
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
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100.0000 :5: Rogue Lady [3-1] Castellano J / Servis Jason
097.2055 :12: Henry's Song [4-1] Bravo J / Clement Christophe
096.5176 :8: Tina's Coming [5-1] Saez L / Vassilieva Katerina
095.4158 :3: Starship Journey [6-1] Chamafi J / Dwoskin Steven
093.9773 7 Claque [8-1] Lanerie C J / Nicks Ralph E.
093.6759 6 Thinkofyou [10-1] Zayas E J / Garoffalo Jose
092.9469 11 Exclusive Dani [12-1] Lopez P / Nicks Ralph E.
092.8932 9 Cajun Sunrise [12-1] Leyva J C / DiMauro Stephen L.
092.4572 10 Florida Sun [15-1] Jaen A / Morales Mario
092.1429 2 Lady Joyfull [20-1] Gomez J C / Sano Antonio
092.0338 1 Confident Lady [20-1] Madrid S O / DiMauro Stephen L.
091.8122 4 When We Act [20-1] Sanchez J / Wilensky Herman
*Scratch* 14 More Than Special [15-1] Leparoux J R / Scott Joan
*Scratch* 13 Shindig Inthe City [10-1] Rocco. Jr. J / Cibelli Jane

01/15/14, GP, Race 8, 4.03 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.33.04 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $51,750
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $1 Bet 3 (Races 8-9-10)
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
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100.0000 :9: Arriba Anna [5/2] Leparoux J R / Wolfson Martin D.
098.4929 :2: Pixie Devil [3-1] Rosario J / Wolfson Martin D.
096.5745 :5: Private Ensign [4-1] Castellano J / Pletcher Todd A.
095.2700 :6: Liberated [5-1] Lanerie C J / Oliver Victoria H.
093.4390 8 Topazio [8-1] Caraballo J C / Santoro Sal
092.5701 7 Eastern Atlantic [12-1] Rocco. Jr. J / Attard Sid C.
092.5162 4 Wide Eyed Wonder [12-1] Jaen A / Kassen David C.
092.1254 1 Dreamlicious [15-1] Leyva J C / Kaplan William A.
*Scratch* 3 Princess Malia [20-1] Nunez E O / Arias Juan D.

01/15/14, GP, Race 9, 4.33 ET
1M [Turf] 1.31.02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $25,000
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
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100.0000 :3: Ack Rider [4-1] Lezcano J / Brown Chad C.
098.2893 :12: Lincoln Zypher [5-1] Rispoli M / Vitali Marcus J.
097.1957 :2: Tappintothemusic [6-1] Castellano J / Walder Peter R.
095.3122 :6: Valid Concept [8-1] Davis D / Wolfson Milton W.
093.9368 13 Station Commander [10-1] Worrie A S / Kopaj Paul
093.9252 7 Mesa Way [10-1] Lanerie C J / Lightner Michael
093.2559 5 Skylar Bleu [12-1] Rocco. Jr. J / Campitelli Jessica J.
093.1227 10 Desenhado [12-1] Zayas E J / Garoffalo Jose
092.2182 8 Legislation [15-1] Olivero C / Duco Luis
091.9870 11 Condestable [20-1] Monterrey. Jr. P / Sobarzo Pedro J.
090.9950 4 Sorocaima [20-1] Bocachica O / Bezara Agustin C.
090.6056 9 Lador Vador [30-1] Worrie A S / Gaffney Ronald
*Scratch* 1 Ex Pirate [3-1] Leparoux J R / Proctor Thomas F.

01/15/14, GP, Race 10, 5.03 ET
5F [Turf] 00.53.04 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $28,750
$1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
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100.0000 :3: Wire Funds [5/2] Lopez P / Navarro Jorge
097.7935 :8: Didn't Take It [3-1] Bocachica O / Farro Patricia
094.9531 :10: Pirates Vow [6-1] Desormeaux K J / Zavash Kerry
094.3643 :11: Thomas Hill [8-1] Saez L / Contessa Gary C.
093.0233 5 Statutorial [10-1] Sanchez J / Sano Antonio
092.8631 1 Full Moon's Back [10-1] Davis D / Pinchin Jose
092.4919 6 Ari's Pride [12-1] Bracho J G / Iadisernia Giuseppe
092.2102 4 It's Time to Laugh [12-1] Caraballo J C / Hills Timothy A.
092.0864 7 Macho Coach [15-1] Chamafi J / DiVito James P.
090.8213 9 Spiro Tune [20-1] Osorio. Jr. J / Azpurua Manuel J.
*Scratch* 2 Where's the Bay [20-1] Jaen A / Mattine John

[Augenj]

Some of you may have noticed that today's predictions for Gulfstream Park are closely alligned with the morning line odds in each race.

During our yearly analysis runs, we set the biases or "weights" of eight of the base factors by highest win per cent. With the ninth base factor (morning line), we look for the highest ROI that exceeds the other combined base factors' ROI since morning line always improves win per cent but does not always improve ROI.

At Gulfstream Park and Churchill Downs, it just happens to mean that the morning line is biased pretty heavily. Other tracks like Aqueduct are biased pretty low and you'll see more longshots on top even though they win less often.

The idea is to drive win per cent and ROI (profit) up for all races but select only races where the conditions are profitable to bet. The conditions that we bet have been proven year to year in the past but not in the current year until the fat lady sings at the end of the year.

[Augenj]

01/15/14, GP, Race 1, 12.40 ET
100.0000 :3: Simon Eyes [5/2]
098.2500 :2: Seve [3-1] 1st - 5.60 3.40 2.80
096.0708 :6: Kiton [4-1]
094.7823 :7: Our Ritz [5-1]

01/15/14, GP, Race 2, 1.09 ET
100.0000 :5: Sofialeonor [2-1]
097.7269 :4: Purecraziluck [3-1] 1st - 5.20 3.80 3.80
095.4682 :6: Pretty Peggy Fu [4-1]
094.2054 :1: The Bookkeeper [6-1]

01/15/14, GP, Race 3, 1.38 ET
100.0000 :7: Farmers' Club [3-1] 2nd - 5.40 3.40
098.3552 :2: Trusted Choice [7/2]
095.7221 :11: Cantinero [5-1]
094.8562 :3: Starship Avenger [5-1]

01/15/14, GP, Race 4, 2.07 ET
100.0000 :4: Nifty Shindig [2-1] 2nd - 2.60 2.20
096.7611 :6: Best Behavior [3-1] 1st - 7.40 3.00 2.40
094.2745 :1: Livin Peace [5-1]
093.6466 :5: Gene's Blue Moon [6-1]

01/15/14, GP, Race 5, 2.36 ET
100.0000 :8: Via Villaggio [5/2]
097.8684 :2: Long Face [3-1] 3rd - 2.80
095.8929 :4: Alaura Michele [4-1] 1st - 10.60 6.00 3.80
093.9558 :6: Dene Court [12-1] 2nd - 5.20 3.00

01/15/14, GP, Race 6, 3.05 ET
100.0000 :6: Megalith [5/2]
098.2106 :7: Runyon Humor [3-1]
096.0829 :4: Uptown Anthem [4-1] 2nd - 9.20 5.60
094.8705 :2: Isutalkintome [5-1]

01/15/14, GP, Race 7, 3.34 ET
100.0000 :5: Rogue Lady [3-1]
097.2055 :12: Henry's Song [4-1] 2nd - 5.60 4.20
096.5176 :8: Tina's Coming [5-1]
095.4158 :3: Starship Journey [6-1] 1st - 17.60 8.40 3.80

01/15/14, GP, Race 8, 4.03 ET
100.0000 :9: Arriba Anna [5/2] 2nd - 3.20 2.10
098.4929 :2: Pixie Devil [3-1] 3rd - 2.60
096.5745 :5: Private Ensign [4-1] 1st - 5.20 3.00 2.60
095.2700 :6: Liberated [5-1]

01/15/14, GP, Race 9, 4.33 ET
100.0000 :3: Ack Rider [4-1] 1st - 4.80 3.40 3.00
098.2893 :12: Lincoln Zypher [5-1]
097.1957 :2: Tappintothemusic [6-1]
095.3122 :6: Valid Concept [8-1]

01/15/14, GP, Race 10, 5.03 ET
100.0000 :3: Wire Funds [5/2] 1st - 3.20 2.40 2.20
097.7935 :8: Didn't Take It [3-1] 3rd - 3.00
094.9531 :10: Pirates Vow [6-1]
094.3643 :11: Thomas Hill [8-1] 2nd - 4.60 3.40