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jpjpicks
01-14-2014, 12:45 PM
What do you use to handicap race or races as for me its simple i use FEET-PER-SECOND RATING an i only play
claiming races 5.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 7.0 an some low level alw races at those dist the reason is thats
where the trainer makes his money for that barn when horses sit to long now you get into trainer stats for
layoffs an other info an the ratings start to get weak so give me them low an mid claming races all day
always remember all just like (pistol pete) told me a long time THERE IS A REASON Y A HORSE WINS THE RACE
you just have to look for it it may be in class or pace or speed figs BUT ITS THERE..
PS: there is no one system that will hit every race so use ALL THE TOOLS you can get your hands on
an stay in sprint races you will find it to be easy then two,turn races now you get into the real
pace of the race
-----------------
Making 1/2 pace figs with track variant the DRF WAY
1st look at the 3-year best time for AQU-I 5.5 is 103.2 (-18)=45.2 par
5.5=3630 | 1/2=2640 diff 990/55 rate of speed = 18
-----------------
lets look at AQU 1/13/14
R1/-13 87
R2/-11 89
R4/ -5 95
R5/ -8 92
R6/ -6 94
R7/ -8 92
R9/-12 88
track variant avg +9 just add # to your fig
sometimes easy works alot better

horses4courses
01-14-2014, 01:50 PM
http://www.toysrus.com/graphics/product_images/pTRU1-2788586dt.gif

Longshot6977
01-18-2014, 03:32 PM
This works sometimes too.

Midnight Cruiser
01-18-2014, 11:49 PM
What do you use to handicap race or races as for me its simple i use FEET-PER-SECOND RATING an i only play
claiming races 5.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 7.0 an some low level alw races at those dist the reason is thats
where the trainer makes his money for that barn when horses sit to long now you get into trainer stats for
layoffs an other info an the ratings start to get weak so give me them low an mid claming races all day
always remember all just like (pistol pete) told me a long time THERE IS A REASON Y A HORSE WINS THE RACE
you just have to look for it it may be in class or pace or speed figs BUT ITS THERE..
PS: there is no one system that will hit every race so use ALL THE TOOLS you can get your hands on
an stay in sprint races you will find it to be easy then two,turn races now you get into the real
pace of the race
-----------------
Making 1/2 pace figs with track variant the DRF WAY
1st look at the 3-year best time for AQU-I 5.5 is 103.2 (-18)=45.2 par
5.5=3630 | 1/2=2640 diff 990/55 rate of speed = 18
-----------------
lets look at AQU 1/13/14
R1/-13 87
R2/-11 89
R4/ -5 95
R5/ -8 92
R6/ -6 94
R7/ -8 92
R9/-12 88
track variant avg +9 just add # to your fig
sometimes easy works alot better



I use the Racing Form, Andy Harrington Workout Sheets, Whobets Picks and certain breeding angles, ie anything from Kittens Joy or English Channel on grass and anything that Proctor, Clemente, Motion or Chad Brown send out on the weeds. I love grass races. Ok, there I said it. My name is Midnight Cruiser, and Im a grassraceaholic....

lamboguy
01-19-2014, 05:55 AM
the only tool's i use are turf day stats and replays. all i use the turfday stats for are to see which horses were in the prior races. i like them because i can go back to the complete history of the horse including works. i like to know the horses in the races and the tendencies of the horse. you can get this same information from the daily racing formulator, but you have to pay for it.

pandy
01-19-2014, 10:50 AM
What is turf day?

lamboguy
01-19-2014, 11:36 AM
What is turf day?it was actually a product that Mike Selwin put out while Youbet was still in business. i actually am looking at something similar from Brisnet called Brisstats now

burnsy
01-19-2014, 12:43 PM
Past performances, my wits of seeing thousands of races over almost 40 years, the odds, if horses are very close in ability, make sure you use the longer one as your "main" horse...............did I mention learning how to "read" the past performances and knowing how races were run and more importantly..............won?

jpjpicks
01-19-2014, 10:14 PM
I like to thank all of you for your words on this its nice to see people talk about what they use handicappers have to have an open mind
thx: jimmy

Midnight Cruiser
01-19-2014, 11:23 PM
In case you werent paying attn, I said Proctor on the grass...

Racey
01-20-2014, 01:04 AM
Well after reading Pace Handicapping Longshots using brisnet exclusively I have adopted theories in the book and my own pattern angles I have enjoyed a nice run over the last 14 months.....very nice extra thanks to Pandy. :ThmbUp:

Midnight Cruiser
01-20-2014, 01:16 AM
Well after reading Pace Handicapping Longshots using brisnet exclusively I have adopted theories in the book and my own pattern angles I have enjoyed a nice run over the last 14 months.....very nice extra thanks to Pandy. :ThmbUp:

Elaborate in english please

classhandicapper
01-20-2014, 09:48 AM
I use class, bias, pace, and some race watching to evaluate the ability of the horses and individual performances in the past.

I use trainer strengths/weaknesses to evaluate the probability of the horse firing its "A" race or improving/declining today (more so at the lower levels).

I project pace and pay attention to race results during the day to see if there are any extreme conditions that are likely to benefit or hurt the horse today.

Almost all my plays come from the top 3 categories.

I use speed/pace figures to help with the analysis of past races in situations where the abilities of the horses are less defined, the results are vague, or I am less familiar with the quality at the track a horse is shipping from.

Overlay
01-20-2014, 12:05 PM
Race dates, distances, and surfaces; running positions; speed figures; jockeys and jockey standings; the money box; post position; and (last but CERTAINLY not least) the toteboard/probable payoffs (for identifying overlays or underlays -- not for judging intent through analysis of "tote action").

HUSKER55
01-20-2014, 01:00 PM
darts, dice and my favorite,...grandkid comes over and says..."that sure is a pretty horse" :D

Jeff P
01-20-2014, 01:46 PM
Fired up the DeLorean yesterday, set the dial on the console to Sunday May 3, 2014, pointed the nose down an empty street, and stomped on the gas.

First order of business upon arrival: Went straight to a convenience store, bought a Sunday paper, flipped to the sports section, and memorized the order of finish and payoffs from "yesterday's" Kentucky Derby.

Was really tired when I got home last night and went straight to bed.

This morning I made a little mistake. Accidentally let it slip I had used the DeLorean again. Of course my better half demanded to see the Sunday paper I'd brought back with me and she read it cover to cover.

Despite knowing the order of finish and payoffs for the 2014 Kentucky Derby ahead of time, now she's insisting all of our money be invested on a couple of stocks she picked out.

Man. I just can't catch a break.



-jp

.

slihawk
01-20-2014, 04:43 PM
Hey Overlay
If I had to post how I do it I would just copy and paste your post

bugboy
01-20-2014, 04:52 PM
I'd do a lot better if I listened to my girlfriend when she says
"Oh I like that name"

Overlay
01-20-2014, 05:11 PM
Hey Overlay
If I had to post how I do it I would just copy and paste your post
Thanks, I appreciate that!

Longshot6977
01-21-2014, 07:53 AM
Fired up the DeLorean yesterday, set the dial on the console to Sunday May 3, 2014, pointed the nose down an empty street, and stomped on the gas.

Did the machine blow a fuse over the confusion that Sunday is May 4 and not May 3 in 2014? :)

Jeff P
01-21-2014, 05:24 PM
You're right of course. I meant to say I punched up Sunday May 4th 2014 on the console.

How could I have misremembered doing that?


-jp

.

phattty
01-21-2014, 10:35 PM
After I do all my pen. And paper technics looking for many angles I have had success with, I....

Go back looking at brisnet figs, beyers, slews fast horses

See how my capping correlates with TLG selections in nyra races...

Mike welch write ups particularly those involving workout info..m

Finally comparing Kenny Pecks handicap to look for those I didn't come up with

After all that I usually have the right horses....but alas I bet them all wrong at least lately

Kinda primitive for all the pace cappers I know but usually do ok

overthehill
01-25-2014, 03:11 AM
i use the drf, and the tote board. I always give xtra credit for horses that have early play in maiden races. over the years there have been several instances where horse have opened or been under the mornings lines early only to soar and be decent odds by post time. one such horse was in a maiden race at fairgrounds it opened up at 2-1 eventually went off at 6-1 and won. I think that in race the the favorite is often overbet in relation to lesser regarded contenders, there is always the assumption that a horse will run right back to its fastest race and even improve of that. I dont know what the statistics are but experientially it seems that betting a horse off one excellent figure does not lead to profits. likewise its very difficult to account for an improving three year old.they can show enormous improvement in speed figures.

limit2
01-25-2014, 08:46 AM
I am totally accountable for any success I have in Thoroughbred Racing. I do a lot with the ML's by paying attention to premiums wherever they exist. Quality (presence of low ML's as a signal to avoid race) and Size ( the higher the number of entries directs the selection process to higher ML's.

Sapio
01-25-2014, 09:04 AM
I am totally accountable for any success I have in Thoroughbred Racing. I do a lot with the ML's by paying attention to premiums wherever they exist. Quality (presence of low ML's as a signal to avoid race) and Size ( the higher the number of entries directs the selection process to higher ML's.

Can you explain it or provide an example?

Thomas Sapio

jpjpicks
01-26-2014, 10:08 PM
Its nice to see handicappers working together by saying what works for them an helping other players out
thx: jimmy

limit2
01-27-2014, 06:09 AM
Yes! We have a race with 8 entries and no scratches. The lowest ML is 5:2. I call this a 9v race. The 8 ML's are in order 15:1, 10:1, 5:2, 8:1, 3:1, 4:1, 6:1 and 9:2. The ML odds of interest are: 10:1, 8:1, 6:1 and 9:2 in that order. At post time the 8:1 is at 12:1 and the 9:2 is at 9:1. They are my choices. The 10:1 and 6:1 fall below acceptable odds. The 8:1 wins and provides a payoff of $27.80. Sticking to play at 1 racetrack i.e. GP and stopping at the first winner guarantees me a winning day.

jpjpicks
01-27-2014, 09:28 PM
very nice hit with your system keep up the work on finding easy systems that work on races you like .....

raybo
01-28-2014, 11:47 AM
Yes! We have a race with 8 entries and no scratches. The lowest ML is 5:2. I call this a 9v race. The 8 ML's are in order 15:1, 10:1, 5:2, 8:1, 3:1, 4:1, 6:1 and 9:2. The ML odds of interest are: 10:1, 8:1, 6:1 and 9:2 in that order. At post time the 8:1 is at 12:1 and the 9:2 is at 9:1. They are my choices. The 10:1 and 6:1 fall below acceptable odds. The 8:1 wins and provides a payoff of $27.80. Sticking to play at 1 racetrack i.e. GP and stopping at the first winner guarantees me a winning day.

That's only true if the winnings on your last bet covers your losses up to that point. At the higher odds you're betting those losses could be too much to cover with one winner, unless you're using the "due column" method, which as we know, doesn't work long term.

limit2
01-28-2014, 07:01 PM
My original purpose was to highlight play for a single day. However, taking it longer term a modified progression of 12 terms ( for races with 2 selections) and expecting 17% of the cycles to exhaust it could come out to be profitable.

raybo
01-28-2014, 09:00 PM
My original purpose was to highlight play for a single day. However, taking it longer term a modified progression of 12 terms ( for races with 2 selections) and expecting 17% of the cycles to exhaust it could come out to be profitable.

Sounds more logical, but without explaining what your "modified progression" would be, or how you arrived at "17%", you could be adding insult to injury by increasing bet size on an already shaky foundation.

No offense intended, but some might take you at your word only to find that they lose more money long term.

limit2
01-29-2014, 07:36 PM
Let us try Gulfstream as an example from Jan. 17 to Jan 26. I will explain and note this was an usual run for the way I do things by way of a test. JAN. 17 5 races played and hit occurred on race 10 of $164.20 with $3 tic. Used: $22:22:22:22:33. JAN. 18 4 races played and no hit occurred. Used: $22:22:22:22. JAN. 19 3 races played and no hit occurred. Used: $33:33:33. JAN. 20 3 races played and hit occurred on race 10 of $77.60 with $4 tic. Used: $44:44:44. JAN. 23 4 races played and no hit occurred. Used: $22:22:22:22. JAN. 24 2 races were played and no hit occurred. Used: $33:33. JAN. 25 4 races played and hit of $37.20 in race 9 with $4 tic. Used: $33:44:44:44. JAN. 26 1 race played and hit occurred of $33.80 with $2 tic. Used: $22.

limit2
01-29-2014, 07:44 PM
Not all 8 day consecutive cycles or 12 race-term progressions perform as well. The 17% alluded to in my write-up refers to 5/6 of them expected to be successful and 1/6 not. Before trying this approach I would suggest a 45 day workout to prove it can get an ROI of 30 % with one's handicapping method of choice.

jpjpicks
01-30-2014, 09:43 PM
Here is a another simply way to use the DRF for finding spot plays look for horses that have a DRF rating of 101 or better thats the speed rating + tv added together now the horse can not win that race or be within 3 1/2 of the winner it take some time looking at all the races but those horses are there if you are willing to do the work on finding them an you will get some nice odds on them.
SIMPLE AN DOES WORK
also if you are using last 1/4 for 6.0 only look for horses that have a last race 1/4 of 27.0 to 28.4 the reason is it looks like shit on the PP'S but you will get some great f!cking odds on those horses when you find them an they do run a great race WPS BETS

jpjpicks
02-01-2014, 04:08 PM
Looking for ways that are easy finding plays
#1/ chalk players you can use twinspires tv under stats race info it gives you stats on the favorites win% itm% this give you help in finding keys for pic-3/4/6
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#2/ take to ML favorite an see if that horse run out of the money last race what you are doing is using the ML maker its his job to handicap each race for the favorite so if the horse has recent races an his last was out that is a good sign he should come back to a good race today an that is y he is the chalk. ps: check twinspires to see for yourself
-----------
#3/ making your own figs takes to long an can make you sour so if you are going to make your own make it simple always remember horses do have off days an they do not run to pars even sheets players have bad days
thx: jimmy

goatchaser
02-02-2014, 12:05 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RviRADnyFPs

Track Collector
02-02-2014, 01:04 AM
I mainly use two different handicapping software programs, both with a number of unique and proprietary factors. One is a commercial program and one is homegrown (by a friend).

Both are above average in their own right, but used in tandem makes for an even stronger approach to identifying profitable plays. This approach makes it almost 100% certain that no one else will be able to identify my entire set of plays. This does not guarantee that I will be profitable, but IMO, having something unique will go a long way towards trying to be ahead of the masses and what THEY use to handicap.



...

jpjpicks
02-05-2014, 09:02 PM
using fullcardreports.com or racingpicks,com if you only play sprint races what you want to look for is the horse with top early & mid ratings with a rct-fig rating of 88 or better with a with a cur-frm # (-) the horses you find will be nice on odds so wps bets

jpjpicks
02-05-2014, 09:10 PM
sorry all I forgot this the PACE SHAPE RATING has to be 4.5 or lower

hoovesupsideyourhe
02-14-2014, 08:17 AM
pen and paper, memorized trainer angles,race replays.jock/trainer angles.only play one or two tracks.thorograph to find or confirm my plays.on nyra ill listen to andy and jason/mig..

redeye007
02-21-2014, 05:54 AM
I make serious wagers only with one specific running style. EEE . A fast paced race with 3 or more early speed types. The best closer can usually be counted on to win and usually is not the favorite. You can expect very generous payouts in these type of races, especially with the tris and supers. :)

pandy
02-21-2014, 07:33 AM
Good point.

bgbootha
02-26-2014, 09:50 PM
I use HBD sheets for the pace info and then my Brisnet PP's I am very partial to Brisnet. I can't get my head around the DRF.

I don't listen to alot of mumbo jumbo online. I know what I a looking for to make my plays and I go from there. I tend to only play about a fourth of the races I handicap.

I am very partial to the HBD pace scenerio and schedules as I think they help a ton. Once I get those and agree with them, I can cap the likely winners and look for value.

thaskalos
02-26-2014, 10:03 PM
I make serious wagers only with one specific running style. EEE . A fast paced race with 3 or more early speed types. The best closer can usually be counted on to win and usually is not the favorite. You can expect very generous payouts in these type of races, especially with the tris and supers. :)

Who is the "best closer" though...

The one with the fastest last fractions...or the one with the even recent efforts who is now dropping substantially in class?

Tom
02-26-2014, 10:18 PM
What are HBD sheets?

bgbootha
02-26-2014, 10:37 PM
What are HBD sheets?

Horse Betting Direct, the HBD Early Pace figures and the HBD late pace figures are the best I have seen.

I used to really punish myself trying to find the pace angle or pace shape of the race, and this is the best tool I have found.

I am not sure what the rules are for posting links on here, but its Horse Betting Direct. They give away a track a day, but I use their "pro" sheets that are a bit more expensive, but offer some great stuff. Cut my handicapping time in half.

greengorilla
03-02-2014, 12:00 AM
Golden Rules I follow whe booking mounts for my rider.


1. Look for horses droping in conditions not in class. (Example would be when horses who has been running wide open drops in and faces horses who havent won 1 race in the last 12 months.)

2. Look for horses that last time out beat the track bias.


3. Look for horses that were running open company dropping into state bred races only.

4. Look for horses for no more then three starts cutting back in distance 1/8 mile at same class level

5. Look for fillys who have ran against the boys and are dropping back into filly races next time out.

Hope the advice helps.