Taloberto - 3/31/2004 GG R6

[pmd62ndst]

Taloberto - 3/31/2004 Golden Gate Fields Race 6.

The placement of this horse made no sense to me.

$8k Maiden Claiming Race with 11 starters with no first time starters, every horse has run at least 2 races. Every horse ranged in the 30 to 40 Beyer range except for Taloberto who's 6 race career is in the $32k-40k range and who got a 72 beyer twice, once in a route and once in a sprint.

Very respectable trainer (25%) and respectable jockey (18%). Included a swift workout after it's last race.

If the trainer has poor stats or no experience then I can attribute this misplacement to that, but if it's a respectable trainer, then I would think he's trying to give the horse away due to some issue not available in the past performaces.

This horse is 2/5 on the toteboard, enjoys a nice trip around the track, wins comfortably by 4 1/2 lengths and pays 2.80.

Best part about all this is Taloberto never got claimed. I thought there would be trainers lining up to the claiming box.

I considered this horse a false favorite for no other reason then it's severe drop in claiming price. I was wrong. What gives?

PMD

[GameTheory]

He just showed you why he is a very respectable trainer. He fooled everyone and walked away with an easy purse.

Also, just because he won easily doesn't mean this horse doesn't have issues. He may not be able to run to his former performances, but the drop was so great he is still head & shoulders above the rest of this field. He'll probably come back next time in the 15k-20k range. Do you think he ran a 72 Beyer today?

I'm just going by what you posted -- I didn't look up this horse...

[arkansasman]

I would think that this horse has some serious physical problems.

[Hosshead]

I can see the trainer before the race thinking: fingers crossed

If he wins, I hope he doesn't get claimed.

If he breaks down, I hope he does get claimed.

[$$$$$]

Actually this horse was NOT an automatic throw BECAUSE of the trainer. High % trainers take advantages when they can, that is 1 reason they are high % trainers. Now on the other hand, say this horse had a 7% trainer, then he wold have been an immediate throw for me. Those trainers are low % trainers for a reason, and it's not because they run a "fairly" sound 32k horse for 8k.

[JustMissed]

Your trainer, Jeff Mullins, has had this horse for only three races, but Jeff has a Down 2+classes record of 47 attempts with 23% win(pretty damn good) and 55% WP.

Your horse Taloberto was the TOP HORSE in the following catagories:

Speed last race 82
Back speed 81
Current class 110.4
Average Class Last 3 110.07
Power rating 118.4(2nd best was 103.9, in my book this makes Taloberto automatic bet barring a broken leg)
Early Pace last race 89
Late Pace last race 86

Taloberto's Best Speed at Distance is 81, which is 17 points higher than 2nd best horse at 64.

Worst case for the owner, Ralph Hawkins, who has footed the bills for 6 races with 2 seconds and 1 third, is he walks away with $12,785( 8K for claim and $4,785 1st prize).

Not sure what the claiming rules are in Cal, but Ralph could claim him back before he's ruined.

Not that I like the odds Taloberto got, but if you can get a handle on these "trainer maneuvers", isn't it kinda like having you own personal ATM machine.

JustMissed
;)

[Larry Hamilton]

The horse was a virtual lock for me as the trainer was a 42% winner with this kind (the kind is my secret) However, the extremely low payoff odds were too low even for me!

[kenwoodallpromos]

Gelding; $2.60 to place; limited opportunities at $32,000 clsiming at GGF. This is also the last week at GGF so that could mean the claimant would have to make room at BM and the fairs moving around a horse that Could have a major physical problem. Tough call! With 11 horses maybe they figured place or show was still a slam dunk! show at $2.40 is 20% profit fir 2 minutes work!

[Zaf]

Shows up tomorrow at BM in the 8th for a $6250 tag n2l.

J.F. Martin listed as the trainer.

ZAFONIC

[freeneasy]

i made money with him, but thursday was a pass. he just wasnt going to be able to go out and lead it all the way around like he was able to do in his last race, a win at .40. he was a good winner the first time i played him and a good loser the second time i played him when he paid the same 40 cents on the dollar to place.

[Zaf]

Entered again Friday at BM, different trainer again !

ZAFONIC

[Zaf]

Entered again May 31st, 2004

Again a different trainer , I think.

ZAFONIC

[kenwoodallpromos]

They are going there because of all the weight off. I like 1 or 9 better.

[CryingForTheHorses]

Wow a thread I can relate too!!THe DROP is the best hop!!.Runs for MDN 32k then drops down to MDN 8k.This horse may have some serious issues as stated in other posts.I myself would really take a good look at this horse,Them 71 beyers tells me he has a little run when he wants to, If the horse looks good on the outside ,May be he is a bad bleeder, Something that isnt anounced except the form telling you he uses lasix.Also may have stable issues like being a bad boy to rid, May be a weaver,May not eat!..Whoknow, Trainer was smart enough to run him where he could win.When you get a horse drpping like this,scares everyone, and the horse coasts home.Imyself just claimed a horse on the drop and am very pleased with what I got.

[pmd62ndst]

This horse is the king of class drops.

Goes from a $40k Maiden to a $8k Maiden and steals it. On Monday, he drops from a $12.5k Claiming Race to a $4k!! He went at 8-1 odds and had the lead in the stretch. I thought I had it but he got swallowed up and finished 4th.

Too bad you can't go much lower then $4k at Bay Meadows. He's still young. Probably got more class drops in his future.

PMD

[Zaf]

Why all the trainer changes ???

ZAFONIC

[Zaf]

3YO, 9 Lifetime starts , claimed once , 5 different trainers

Gary Stute
John F Martin
Jeff Mullins
Jesus Nunez
Andy Mathis

What could be the most logical reasons aside from the claim :rolleyes:

ZAFONIC