Mdn/MC races and dealing with pedigree and running styles

[cutchemist42]

So I've avoided Maiden and Maiden Claiming races for a long time because I rely alot on class and pace handicapping. I think what has scared me about these types of races is no established running styles for some horses and dealing with the pace setup. Is there any way to predict this? I mean, how long does it take for a running style to be cemented if trainer stays the same? Yr3 or Yr4 or even sooner?

I was also trying to deal lately with pedigree and dealing with it for the different ages you see in these races. When should you ever stop considering pedigree? Should you ever stop considering it depending on if the maiden is lightly raced or not?

Just looking for insights, thanks guys!

[Ocala Mike]

I have had good success with playing second time starters in maiden races; obviously, I am not concerned with "running styles," only the likelihood of major improvement out of the first "go to school" race.

[Tom]

I don't pay much attention to running styles, but I do like to see horses that faced a fast pace last time out. Improved early speed is a plus I look for, too.
I pay a lot attention to class, part of that being not a lot of previous starts. But when a horse ships to a lesser circuit, I can forgive a lot of losing races.
Horses coming to FL from NYRA and have 30 starts finish dead last the last two races and still outclass the locals. Seriously.
Once the horse moves to a lower track, I draw a line through all the past races and start over fresh.

[pondman]

Should you ever stop considering it depending on if the maiden is lightly raced or not?



I stay away from 1st timers--religiously. I'm also looking for improvement. I look at the company the horse has been keeping, and if it's competitors are following up with other success. I'm more concerned with whether a horse fits the race and don't care much about the performance. I generally single a horse that I think is ready. But in recent years I've successfully played high $$$ tri combos.

[letswastemoney]

I stay away from 1st timers--religiously. I'm also looking for improvement. I look at the company the horse has been keeping, and if it's competitors are following up with other success. I'm more concerned with whether a horse fits the race and don't care much about the performance. I generally single a horse that I think is ready. But in recent years I've successfully played high $$$ tri combos.
There are some first time starters to look at!

Specifically, I look at the ones sired by Tiz Wonderful, Yes It's True, Hennessy, just to name a few. That combined with the high first time stats for the trainer tell me when a first time starter has a shot (for example, Todd Pletcher is obviously loaded with horses ready to roll, but Ian Wilkes is 1%).

[jahura2]

I am starting to find that straight maidens and high priced maiden claimers have become some of my favorite races to bet on. Some basics to look for in lightly raced horses in MSW or MCL races:
1. Surface switches, especially dirt to turf-considering pedigree
2. Trainer changes after 1 or 2 races (not too prevalent) Cashed some nice plays with young horse moving in to Asmussen barn.)
3.Percentage of 1st time winners a sire has produced (percentage at least in double figures)
4. Percentage of winners a trainer has with 1st time starters. (percentage in double figures)
5. Gate works at or around .12 per 1/8th
5. Drops from MSW to MCL are big-
6. Equipment and medication changes
7. Look for improvement from 1st to 2nd time starting
8. Did the horse show any pace in the first start?
9. Did he/she run green or act like they knew what they were doing in first attempt?
10. Watch where early and late money goes with 1st time starters.
There are quite a few other factors but I look for these immediately when coming upon MSW or MCL races.

[pondman]

(for example, Todd Pletcher is obviously loaded with horses ready to roll, but Ian Wilkes is 1%).

Are you making money with Pletcher? I've resign myself to not playing NY, except for Saratoga and FL, and don't have much interest in betting Pletcher, because of low odds.

[Clocker]

Are you making money with Pletcher? I've resign myself to not playing NY, except for Saratoga and FL, and don't have much interest in betting Pletcher, because of low odds.

You can't make money here, but you can save money. If Pletcher has a first timer and it is at 6/5, pass the race. ;)

[letswastemoney]

Are you making money with Pletcher? I've resign myself to not playing NY, except for Saratoga and FL, and don't have much interest in betting Pletcher, because of low odds.
I was only using an extreme example, but I certainly can't leave his first timers out of horizontals at Gulfstream. It's not just Pletcher though, I look at the sire.

I wouldn't bet an A.P. Indy trained by Pletcher and debuting in a sprint, for example (even though new A.P. Indys don't exist anymore, it was just another example).

Looking at the dam information is also important. Did the dam win her first start? Have the siblings won their first start? Family history can sometimes predict if a horse will make a good win candidate in their first start.

[cutchemist42]

I was only using an extreme example, but I certainly can't leave his first timers out of horizontals at Gulfstream. It's not just Pletcher though, I look at the sire.

I wouldn't bet an A.P. Indy trained by Pletcher and debuting in a sprint, for example (even though new A.P. Indys don't exist anymore, it was just another example).

Looking at the dam information is also important. Did the dam win her first start? Have the siblings won their first start? Family history can sometimes predict if a horse will make a good win candidate in their first start.

Is there a resource for siblings? I can only find info on pedigree that doe snot include siblings.

[pondman]

I was only using an extreme example, but I certainly can't leave his first timers out of horizontals at Gulfstream. It's not just Pletcher though, I look at the sire.

.

The only people I've witnessed making money from 1st timers have been PAR fanatics. They just knew the horses with experience didn't stack up against what it took to win. And then the found a reason, usually some gimmicky breeding ritual. But they always wanted a big price. You really need double digits to make money, rather than just protecting a bet.

Some of the high end breeders spend a lot sending their horses to horse hotels and resorts. Occasionally Harris sends out a Cal bred. But all of this is done before they reach the track. It wouldn't matter who trained them.

[JohnGalt1]

As to running styles in any maiden race, I ignore it.

In races for winners I rank the horses E, EP, P and S on my handicapping worksheet.

Maidens have no established running style because you'll see the same horse in some races go for the lead and fade, then in other races, are taken back to see if they'll close.

Trainers and jockeys are still trying to figure the horse out.

Before Little Mike's and Zenyatta's first race anyone knew their running styles though their 4 furlong workouts may have given them a hint.

For pedigree, Mike Helm suggests looking up the breeding for first time winners on all first time starters, AND any maiden dropping in class (to a new low), since this is like a first start at this level.

And if a second start at the same or higher level I look up the breeding, but put the rating in parentheses since I want to give it one chance since the first race is a new learning experience.

This has worked for me for pedigree.

I use the Bris Sire Stats book.

I take the sire's full rating and half the dam's sire to make one rating. An A sire rating and a D dam e rating would be a B since the D is 3 levels below an A and a C Sire with a B Dam sire, the rating would be a C+.

If these horses ran against each other the first horse would be two levels higher than the second.

In past research of just the races I handicapped, the adjusted ratings of maidens showed A's and B's won much more often than D's and F's.

Of course the Pletchers and Bafferts have more A's and B firsters and the 2%ers had to try with the lesser breds.

[Tom]

I used to use Helm's stuff, but not being in some digital format is a deal breaker - having to thumb through pages and pages is a waste of time. Too bad, because his stuff was top notch.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I used to use Helm's stuff, but not being in some digital format is a deal breaker - having to thumb through pages and pages is a waste of time. Too bad, because his stuff was top notch.

You can get them through Progressivehandicapping.I get 3 books and the online ratings for about $200 a year for all.

[deathandgravity]

BRISNET pedigree ratings are not a bad place to look. They throw out some good value mdn every now & then. No means the definitive source or a positive ROI, but helpful when handicapping.

Good example would be #1 Baratti in Race 2 @ AQU today.
Second highest pedigree number for dirt & distance.
$13.40 winner