Monty Hall redux ..at the Harness Track

[Ray2000]

*Classic Puzzle but in Harness racing terms with a twist.

You go to the track and a friend who is a psychic and NEVER WRONG comes up and tells you he's had a vision that winner of the 7th race will be an inside horse, either Number :1: or :2: or :3: , and they all will go off at the same odds. You decide to put your entire days bankroll on the rail horse to Win because the 1 hole has the highest winning percentage so you make the bet.

You wait for the 7th race but at 10 MTP, your friend comes running up and says "Another vision, I know the :2: horse finishes last, ..I thought you should know" and runs off.

PUZZLE: Can you improve your chance of cashing a ticket by canceling your bet and putting the money on the :3: ?

The Classic answer is yes, but

1. Does the post advantage make a difference?

2. Does Canceling the ticket and re-betting the same horse increase your chances?

3. Does Bayesian Statistics even apply here?


*Google Monty Hall Puzzle if you're interested.

[lamboguy]

by changing your bet, you now have a 2/3rds chance of being right because when you originally started you only had a 1/3 chance to have picked the right horse. now you have just got 2 chances to win instead of the original 1 that you had to start out with.

[098poi]

I don't know if this quite fits in with the Monty Hall scenario. With Monty he knows the winner and exposes a loser after the contestant picks his door. The psychic only claims that 1 of the 3 inside horses will win and then says it's not the 2. I would stick with your rail horse based on a slight advantage.

[Ray2000]

I don't know if this quite fits in with the Monty Hall scenario. With Monty he knows the winner and exposes a loser after the contestant picks his door. The psychic only claims that 1 of the 3 inside horses will win and then says it's not the 2. I would stick with your rail horse based on a slight advantage.



A good point, 098poi

When I constructed this scenario I thought about using a tout (instead of a psychic) who knows the race is fixed and which one of three inside drivers will win, then later reveals one of the 2 losers. It does make a difference when the winning horse (door) is locked in..... I think :confused: