Fillies first out

[Robert Goren]

Do fillies win in their first start more often than the males? It seem lately a lot filly firsters have been winning.

[horses4courses]

In the immortal words of the UK one-hit-wonder group, Racey:

Some girls do, some girls don't

RCykn0_Fh6A

[RXB]

Do fillies win in their first start more often than the males? It seem lately a lot filly firsters have been winning.

There's no significant difference with regard to gender.

[stu]

From October 1st-December 31st 2013 (North American thoroughbreds only),

Male first timers won 161 of 1947 (8.26%)
Female first timers won 154 of 1841 (8.37%)

Combined all first timers won 8.32%

[mountainman]

From October 1st-December 31st 2013 (North American thoroughbreds only),

Male first timers won 161 of 1947 (8.26%)
Female first timers won 154 of 1841 (8.37%)

Combined all first timers won 8.32%

For an iv somewhere around .7, I'd guess? And a very poor roi.

[classhandicapper]

For an iv somewhere around .7, I'd guess? And a very poor roi.

There are some large differences between those that are bet and those that aren't, the class level, the surface, trainer etc...

It's a pretty tough area to find value, but also scary betting against several because you never know who's going to show good speed or be really good and screw up your thinking.

[stu]

I broke out the geldings/ridglings:

56 wins from 671 (8.34%)
ROI=0.72 (on a scall where 1.0 is break even)
i.v. 0.78

[RXB]

Debut horses with Lasix are basically equal on ROI to random betting. Betting the ones without Lasix is a quick road to the poorhouse.

[Robert Goren]

From October 1st-December 31st 2013 (North American thoroughbreds only),

Male first timers won 161 of 1947 (8.26%)
Female first timers won 154 of 1841 (8.37%)

Combined all first timers won 8.32%Thanks

[stu]

Combined Sexes - Stats for 1sters

Dirt/Sprints - 7.98%
Synthetic/Sprints - 9.31%
Turf/Sprints - 6.55%

Dirt/Routes - 8.09%
Synthetic/Routes - 16.00% (small sample w/ positive ROI)
Turf/Routes - 9.46%

[mountainman]

There are some large differences between those that are bet and those that aren't, the class level, the surface, trainer etc...

It's a pretty tough area to find value, but also scary betting against several because you never know who's going to show good speed or be really good and screw up your thinking.

I once read an extensive study of firsters that identified (relative) field-strength (not fast works, trainer-stats, or pedigree..etc) as the key predictor of debut success.

I've always been skeptical of that finding, since, to my experience, firsters with no particular trait to recommend them rarely win-regardless of soft competition.

I do agree it's very hard to turn profit on firsters. And from a personal standpoint, when I back a firster on a circuit i'm well-familiar with, I feel like I've leveled the playing field for casual handicappers by circumventing my assessment of the experienced maidens in the field.