Aqueduct: 01/04/2014

[Teach]

I haven't started handicapping the Aqueduct card for today as I'm not sure they're running. I saw early this morning that temps in the NYC area were near single digits. The track must be frozen solid. They'd have to be harrowing all night to have any chance.

I might mention that here just west of Boston the temperature was 8-below at 6 am. Even Boston was below zero. Yet, go figure, the meteorologists are calling for rain and temps in the upper 40s on Monday -- and then right back in the deep freeze.

If you hear anything, please post; it'll then be Plan B.

[lamboguy]

horses are on the track this morning and definitey running in New York

[Teach]

Thanks Lamboguy

[Teach]

As I begin to handicap, I was looking for some input on track bias at Aqueduct. I thought Thursday's card 1/2/2014 favored the inside. That looked like the place to be. I can recall when I was a frequent visitor to Suffolk Downs, in the days of Rudy (Rudy Baez) and Gamby (Carl Gambardella), that winter days like these favored the inside. Any thoughts?"

[Teach]

Race One:

:5: Iratinelexburance gets my nod in the opener. Yet, I’ll tread lightly to see how track is playing.

Others: :6: Flamingo Lane; :2: Gingee; :3: Pegasus Beba.

Race Two:

:5: Evasive Cat looks like the logical choice in this n2L claiming sprint. Yet, why is she dropping so precipitously?

Others: :1: Cry Holy; :6: Yankeeindixieland; :2: Absolute Paradise.

Race Three:

:1: Flying Joe drops in class; draws rail. Can go to the top. If the rail is “the highway” to the winner’s circle, this gelding has the inside track.

Others: ; :5: Tactical Pal; :2: Pacemakestherace


Race Four:

:9: L B’s Expression is my longshot try of the afternoon. A lot will depend on Pablo Morales angling this filly to the lead from her outside post. If he does…

Also: :5: Jewel in the Sky; :8: Gambling Geraldine; :7: Dixie Sparkle

Race Five:

:6: Your Time Is Up won her last; is capable of repeating.

Others: :7: Frosty But Funky; :2: All Mine Tonight; :5: Nonnie Connie

Race Six:

:1: Flipcup won the East View convincingly. See no reason to indicate that he can’t reprise that winning effort.

Others: :6: Alpaca Fina; :7: Flight of Gold; :8: Derek’s Girl.

Race Seven:

:6: What The Frost brings together the dynamic duo of Cornelio Velasquez and Rudy Rodriguez. Nuff Said.

Others: :8: Oblahlah; :5: Hot Stones; :3: Hundred Acre Wood.

Race Eight:

In The Jerome, I like “the inside”. :1: Noble Moon, the Leah Gyarmati-trainee was third in the Grade II Nashua. This A.P. Indy-bred colt looks best here.

Others: :2: Scotland; :3: Lawmaker; :5: Matuszak.

Race Nine:

:12: Speedy Lee won her last; might just repeat. Any moisture or thawing later in the afternoon would help.

Others: :10: Thetrainwasgone; :6: Score Boyera; :3: Inspeightofthegold

[Teach]

:2: Absolute Paradise looks particularly good on the track.

[PhantomOnTour]

Looks like a lot of speed here could set up the :1: or :4: , although the latter is underlaid at 8-1.
1-7-8-9 may all be close to or vying for the lead in here...nobody is particularly fast in here either.
Let's run them down.

ex:
:1: :4:
:1: :2: :4: :5: :7: :8:
ex:
:7:
:1: :4:
win:
:1: :4:

[PhantomOnTour]

Looks like a lot of speed here could set up the :1: or :4: , although the latter is underlaid at 8-1.
1-7-8-9 may all be close to or vying for the lead in here...nobody is particularly fast in here either.
Let's run them down.

ex:
:1: :4:
:1: :2: :4: :5: :7: :8:
ex:
:7:
:1: :4:
win:
:1: :4:
ugly - very ugly

[PhantomOnTour]

Let's try again.

I am giving the :5: Ketel Twist a chance to go a long way on the front end.
Luzzi back up, gets a weight flip flop with Alpaca Fina, best races have come routing, 10-1 a very nice price.

ex:
:1: :4: :6: w :5:
win:
:5:

[Muddy]

:6: :5: :3: :8: