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View Full Version : Will History Repeat Itself

PICSIX
01-02-2014, 02:55 PM
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/1929_analog/
badcompany
01-02-2014, 03:32 PM
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/1929_analog/

Anything is possible, but, that chart cherry picks the time frame.

Leading up to the 1929 crash, there hadn't been a recent 50% drop as we had in 2008.

Chartists are are always trying to find a pattern that will predict future price movements, but, exceptions aside, they fail, as, similar to a horse race, each event has its own unique set of circumstances.
sammy the sage
01-03-2014, 08:21 AM
ya'll ever heard or read anything ABOUT Tulips...if you haven't...you should...history DOES repeat...PERIOD...humans are humans...

it's THE timing...as P.A says....nobody knows when...

sooner or later a hurricane will hit Fla. again...

"just BE CAREFUL out there"....from one of my favorite series of all time
badcompany
01-03-2014, 09:08 AM
ya'll ever heard or read anything ABOUT Tulips...if you haven't...you should...history DOES repeat...PERIOD...humans are humans...

it's THE timing...as P.A says....nobody knows when...

sooner or later a hurricane will hit Fla. again...

"just BE CAREFUL out there"....from one of my favorite series of all time

Yes, there will be another crisis, at some point, but, that doesn't mean that because someone found a chart pattern similar to the past years' price movements, that the same pattern will continue into the future.
RaceBookJoe
01-03-2014, 09:16 AM
Charts are great to show you what has happened..the hardest thing is recognizing things as they are happening in order to profit from the move that is in motion.
PICSIX
01-31-2014, 09:02 AM
Maybe in the process now.
_______
02-15-2014, 05:27 PM
Barron's has an article mentioning that this chart was making the rounds. I'd link it but it's behind a paywall.

I'll try to summarize it without quoting.

The scales are different. The 30ish gain last year is overlayed on one several times that magnitude in 1928-29. A similar drop today to 1929 would result in a Dow in the 12,000's. Not a picnic but hardly a cataclysm.

The chart also ignores all the policy errors that occurred which led to the Great Depression and which aren't present today.

The summary paragraph basically states that the fact it went viral speaks more of today's investors fragile psyches than any real parallel between eras.