Dick Mitchell-carryover from software thread

[Niko]

As Ron Tiller pointed out, Tom Hambleton said Dick Mitchell can win with any program because he handicaps to the program and it's strengths. I've seen many posts by Dick on other boards where's he able to take new concepts in a program and start using them to make money very quickly while others are starting to figure them out and/or continue to lose money with them. From the days of Pace Makes the Race he's been more succesful than others around him. Currently playing 50+ races a day with ROI's that approach 30% to me is incredible. What makes Dick Mitchell so succesful? I like to learn from the best but maybe he has some genetic pre-dsiposition that I can't emulate. Michael Jordon and Lebron James can be studied, but not duplicated.
Dick can be bored by horseracing, is that the secret? I read of another professional who had no emotion as to the results of the races and said it was one reason he was succesful. Dave Schwartz has tried to copy his methods but hasn't been able to duplicate results...but still 7-9% ROI is still very, very attractive in my mind.
I'll start to guess and let him and others who know him fill me in.
First it's hard work and handicapping thousands of races.
Next, superior pattern recognition? The ability to take many factors and synthesize them to the most important 2-3?
Will I learn anything from this from this thread, stay tuned...

[Niko]

The ability to spot and bet vs. false favorites?

[cato]

I've always liked Mitchell and his enthusiasm for whatever it was that he was trying to sell. Often that was knowledge or a way of analysis, which is better than a book or software.

TO the extent he has been successful, he would have some advantage due to his mathematically oriented mind---it seems that such a mind would lead to an advantage in the game--analytical, quick odds calculations in the head, etc.

Now having said that, I attended at least 2 seminars that he hosted and I never saw that he had any great advantage when the horses started running and the bets were down.

His analysis before a race was clear, cogent and convincing, but it was rare when any of that analysis translated to a profit.

And its always possible that I was just there on 2 of those days when things did not go well.

SO, does anyone have experienece in thise area? When Mitchell was playing the races, was he a superstar?
If so, why do you think he had great success?

Cheers, Cato

[kenwoodallpromos]

Hope I am not starting to sound like a broken record, but here are my approches in thinking: controlled emotions, pattern recognition, research in all related areas, learning to separate the BS fiction from real horseracing manipulation and unfounded stories, cashing tickets on a higher % of solid choices than the crowd, knowing when dubious pp information and track changes make a particular horse too risky and an underlay. / Of course you know that Mitchell must be taking methods that are basically solid and expanding on them to narrow the "takeout gap" and beat the crowd and other method users by 20-25%. That improves the return from down 20% to a positive ROI. You need to do 20% better than the average bettor just to break even.

[kingfin66]

This is a minor, well actually major, point - wasn't Ron Tiller actually speaking of Dick Schmidt in the thread where he spoke of Dick's ability to utilize whatever software he was using? Wasn't Dick Mitchell always Mr. All-Ways?

[Niko]

A new baby was added to the family 2 weeks ago and I'm losing my mind!!!
Yes, I'm talking about Dick Schmidt. Now if only I could change the thread....

[kingfin66]

Congrats on the new child. Sleep deprivation does many things. The question you pose in the thread is actually a good one. I too have read Dick's posts about how he approached handicapping and wagering. It is incredible. My take is that he uses his vast experience and methodology to narrow the condenders, then looks for value. He plays a lot of bets. This would help narrow the randomness factor inherent in horse racing.

Probably the best person to answer your question is Mr. Schmidt himself. Hopefully, he will jump into this thread.

[Speed Figure]

Originally posted by kingfin66
This is a minor, well actually major, point - wasn't Ron Tiller actually speaking of Dick Schmidt in the thread where he spoke of Dick's ability to utilize whatever software he was using? Wasn't Dick Mitchell always Mr. All-Ways?
He was Mr. ALL-IN-ONE. All-Ways is Gary Hall.

[Dick Schmidt]

Niko,

Well, OK, a new baby can mess with anyone's mind. Of course, so can a 16 year old. Ask me how I know this. Been there, done that. Anyway, being confused with Dick Mitchell isn't so bad. I met Dick back in the late 70's and we collaborated on his first original handicapping program. He did most of the programming, I did most of the testing. I haven't seen Dick in several years, but I always enjoyed my time with him, and learned a great deal about computers, handicapping and life from him.

Dick (Schmidt)

The race is not always to the swift,
nor the battle to the strong,
but that's the way to bet.
- Daymon Runyon

[JackS]

I've read quite a bit of Mitchell's writings and intrestingly enough ,he does not consider himself a handicapper. He often points out that every thing he does know, he learnerd from the same guys that we all learned from. Mitchell's strength always came from his expert application of money managment. I would have to admit that many of the applications he employs is handicapping and has taught the guys that wrote the books a few lessons....PS I also met Mitchell back in the mid "80's at a gambling siminar in Los Angeles about the same time as the first inception of All-In-One

[RonTiller]

Wow, all these names and programs are really confusing. How about a cheat sheet, in no particular order; here are some I know from personal experience:

Gary Hall..........Allways
(Pedigree: unknown to me)

John Marrone..........Multicaps
(Pedigree: worked for a short time at Cynthia Publishing; worked with Ron Ambrose at the Handicappers Institute in Las Vegas; currently works at BRIS as a programmer; ex-marine)

Jim the Hat Bradshaw..........AOdds Gold, Silver, Platinum, Beryllium, etc.
(Pedigree: Sartin group; wrote what looks like a self published book 'The Matchup' (or something like that) after the demise of the Sartin group)

Dick Mitchell..........All In One
(Pedigree: Founded Cynthia Publishing; one of the most successful and prolific handicapping authors; mathematics teacher)

Tom Hambleton..........Win Formula, TPR95
(Pedigree: Sartin group; coauthor of Pace Makes the Race, 1st and 2nd edition; formerly worked at HDW; friends with Michael Perry, his programmer)

Michael Perry..........ThoroVision, Win Formula, TPR95
(Pedigree: Deceased; Professional programmer; wrote Thorovision with Bill Burns and TPR95 and Win Formula with Tom Hambleton)

Gordon Pine..........The Capper
(Pedigree: Worked for years at Cynthia Publishing)

Bob Purdy..........Synergism
(Pedigree: One of the first members of the Sartin group; ex-marine; don't mess with him)

Dave Schwartz..........Original Thorobrain, Horsestreet
(Pedigree: Professional programmer, artificial intelligence/neural network bon vivant)

Ken Massa..........Original MPH, HTR
(Pedigree: Professional programmer, tounament player, will never get a normal 9 to 5 job)

John Rancont..........Winners Circle software (Stealth, etc.)
(pedigree: Deceased; Owner, trainer, breeder in Texas; programmer; the Lou Grant of the Handicapping software world)

Ron Summers..........Current Thorobrain
(Pedigree: Lawyer; other details unknown to me)

Mario Mory..........Cal Track Online, Powerplay
(Pedigree: unknown to me)

Michael Pizzola..........Handicapping Magician, Master Magician, (* Magician *), etc.
(Pedigree: Sartin group; coauthor of Pace Makes the Race, 1st edition; magician)

George Green..........SpeedPlus
(Pedigree: Unknown; apparently connected to Huey Mahl from years back)

No program but relevant:

Dick Mitchell (I mean Schmidt)..........Sartin group; coauthor of Pace Makes the Race, 1st and 2nd edition; enjoys sarcasm (the enjoyment not always recipricated on this message board

Connections:

Gary Hall is connected to Tom Hambleton (via TPR and Form Points), who is connected to Howard Sartin.

John Marrone is connected to Dick Mitchell, who is connected to Tom Brohamer, who is connected to Howard Sartin.

Michael Perry is connected to Tom Hambleton, who is connected to Howard Sartin.

Gordon Pine is connected to Dick Mitchell, who is connected to Tom Brohamer, who is connected to Howard Sartin.

Dave Schwartz is connected to Dick Schmidt, who is connected to Howard Sartin.

Ken Massa is connected to Tom Brohamer, who is connected to Howard Sartin.

Ron Summers is connected to Dave Schwartz, who is is connected to Dick Schmidt, who is connected to Howard Sartin.

Mario Mory is connected to Dick Mitchell, who is connected to Tom Brohamer, who is connected to Howard Sartin.

Jim the Hat Bradshaw, Tom Hambleton, Bob Purdy, Michael Pizzola and Dick Schmidt are directly linked to Howard Sartin.

John Rancont and George Green are the two odd men out, with apparently no links beyond themselves.

Conclusion: Howard Sartin, not a huge black hole, is at the center of the universe.

Ron Tiller
HDW

[GameTheory]

Can you connect Dick Schmidt to Kevin Bacon in six degress or less?

[Dave Schwartz]

Sure.

Dick is one of my best friends and I like Kevin Bacon movies. <G>

Dave

[schweitz]

Does anybody know who developed the old Plus 3 (then 4, then 5) software?

[andicap]

Wasn't plus 3 a creature of Dennis Allen???

Also, Bill Burns deserves a prominant place. He was the top handicapping brains behind ThoroVision and a Sartinista from far back. Perry was a brilliant programmer.

Burns is now out of the handicapping/racing biz. (I believe he had been working in the Middle East for oil companies before doing ThoroVision.)

[Tom]

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz
Sure.

Dick is one of my best friends and I like Kevin Bacon movies. <G>

Dave

Yes, and Dick Schmidt likes bacon. ;)

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by Speed Figure
He was Mr. ALL-IN-ONE. All-Ways is Gary Hall.

Oops. Indeed he was. You would think I would have had that point hammered into my head by reading his book.

[cratman]

One of the more memorable lines I have heard was Michael Pizzolla talking about Dick Schmidt. Pizzolla said that no one had ever won more money with less insight or something to that effect. It seems to have been a backhanded compliment in that it acknowledges that Dick Schmidt posseses the tools that separate those who can simply handicap well from those who can both handicap and win money.