Question on pacelines/"Good" races

[andicap]

If you are picking pacelines by the criteria of only using "good" races, what criteria would you use?

For example, within 3 lengths at the finish or finished at least 2nd.
Or within 1 length at the pace call IF the horse finished within 5 lengths of the winner.


ETC

[shanta]

i use 7.5 lenghts or less at the finish as "good races" to enter into my software. the internals i really don't pay any attention to . i trust my program to take care of all the "machinations" of compounding , projecting, and whatever the heck else it is doing!
Richie
:)

[Derek2U]

its so cool that classic stat problems show up in horseracing.
Like whats the value of a length? At what distance? I'm just
getting around to that and I've collected lots of race data. But
one thing fascinating is this: a single TV like +5 or -1 etc is
a great concept but a BettER measure is this: 3/12/04 AQU ....
Sprints on the VeryFast side ... 3/15/04 AQU ... Inside speed ++ but even after cpmpetition Early Speed stayed well; ergo, Track Fast. What should the FAST/SLOW scale look like? Right now, Great prediction from this scale .... VFAST FAST avg VSLOW SLOW hehe 5 opinions .... hey, i'm impressed .... point values predict by
12% less. hehe ... and SR + TV likewise. Maybe its worth a look
at Catergorical Ratings ... YES/NO or A+, A , C , F, F+ ... PS:
i wasn't that surprised.

[Dave Schwartz]

Personally, I believe that one needs to select pacelines based upon how tight the finish was.

I believe that the best paceline to use is when the horse won or lost by a neck or less at the same surface and approximate distance.

In other words, I would prefer a paceline 7 races back where the horse was "all out" at the wire and lost to a last race where he won by 5 lengths.

My theory is that the close finish tells me how good the horse REALLY is. If he was any better he would have won the race (or the race wouldn't have been so close).


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[shanta]

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz
Personally, I believe that one needs to select pacelines based upon how tight the finish was.

I believe that the best paceline to use is when the horse won or lost by a neck or less at the same surface and approximate distance.

In other words, I would prefer a paceline 7 races back where the horse was "all out" at the wire and lost to a last race where he won by 5 lengths.

My theory is that the close finish tells me how good the horse REALLY is. If he was any better he would have won the race (or the race wouldn't have been so close).


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Dave, very interesting! so if a horse won his last race going away by open lenghts (say 80 speed rating or whatever "number" is being looked at) you would rather gauge him by a photo finish win or loss a few races down even if "rating" is lower?? you don't feel maybe horse is "improving" and that maybe the last race big win is an indicator of that??
Thanx Richie

[Tom]

I am looking less and less at where the horse was in terms of lengths back. I tend to use lines where the final figure is a logical expectation of what the horse will do today, and the pace figure is not out of line for the horse in question.
When I look at the figure patterns and pace figures in HTR Fig2, or in CJ's form cycle PP's, I usually only focus on the numbers, not the class or beaten lengths.
A good race is one wtihin 3-4 points of the horse's last top fig.
After I get my contenders, and have an idea of what number I think is resonable to expect today, I will use the best line I can find that is close to that number.

[Shacopate]

He defines a "good" race as such in "Winning at the Races."

1. A money finish.

OR

2. Close to the winner at the wire. 2 lenghts for sprints or 3 lenghts for routes.