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_______
12-29-2013, 07:10 PM
Buy SBND. It's an ETF that tracks 3x the inverse of long term treasury bonds.

Yields are just below 4% now. They should be around 4.5% next December.

If I had to make one pick that would be guaranteed to be higher at the end of 2014 than it was at the end of 2013, this is it.

What is yours and why?

lamboguy
12-29-2013, 09:00 PM
this seems to be everyone's trade of the century. all you have to do is listen to financial television shows, they are all touting over the airwaves of America how to position yourself for this great move.

the other biggie is to go short the gold market. they dug up guys that have been bullish their whole lives and have just thrown in the towel.

maybe everyone is right. but i really don't think it works that way.

_______
12-29-2013, 09:36 PM
this seems to be everyone's trade of the century. all you have to do is listen to financial television shows, they are all touting over the airwaves of America how to position yourself for this great move.

the other biggie is to go short the gold market. they dug up guys that have been bullish their whole lives and have just thrown in the towel.

maybe everyone is right. but i really don't think it works that way.

Other than being contrarian, do you have some reason that would explain why long term interest rates would remain flat or fall?

You might be overthinking it. If you don't like this, what would you substitute in as a 2014 winner.

plainolebill
12-30-2013, 03:58 AM
[QUOTE=_______]Other than being contrarian, do you have some reason that would explain why long term interest rates would remain flat or fall?
QUOTE]

Europe going into the crapper again would do it. Italy's third largest bank is in big trouble - tip of the iceberg?

sammy the sage
12-30-2013, 08:59 AM
if you hold ANY type of ETF 3x's for LONG play...well even if you're right...you're gonna be a LOSER...

and if WHY needs to be EXPLAINED to ya...shouldn't be messing around w/them anyways...

badcompany
12-30-2013, 09:06 AM
if you hold ANY type of ETF 3x's for LONG play...well even if you're right...you're gonna be a LOSER...

and if WHY needs to be EXPLAINED to ya...shouldn't be messing around w/them anyways...

With this ETF, the money has been in the intermediate term, a month or two.


http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/2d21519843f54fdd003af0d7e48ed54d_zps523af3c5.jpg

_______
12-30-2013, 07:44 PM
[QUOTE=_______]Other than being contrarian, do you have some reason that would explain why long term interest rates would remain flat or fall?
QUOTE]

Europe going into the crapper again would do it. Italy's third largest bank is in big trouble - tip of the iceberg?

I appreciate that you at least posted a reasonable thesis why this would be a bad investment. I don't think it's likely to pan out that way but it was a well reasoned response.

_______
12-30-2013, 07:56 PM
if you hold ANY type of ETF 3x's for LONG play...well even if you're right...you're gonna be a LOSER...

and if WHY needs to be EXPLAINED to ya...shouldn't be messing around w/them anyways...

Your use of ALL CAPS to SUBSTITUTE a tone of AUTHORITY for any actual REASON is LiKe AlL CrAZy DuDe!

_______
12-30-2013, 08:09 PM
Anyone want to post any other ideas? I know year end is a completely arbitrary point and 1 year a completely arbitrary end point but I was hoping there would be some other idea(s) I could measure this against.

Don't be shy. They'll be haters but unless they have something of their own own to post it's just part of being on the interwebs.

lamboguy
12-30-2013, 09:58 PM
i think gold is bottoming around $1050. its probably going to take until July to get any upward movement on it.

i have been slowly buying mining stocks, most of them on the Toronto or Venture exchange. i am buying junior mining stocks with decent balance sheets. so far i have bought 2 of them KDX.to and KOR.to

i am close to buying FNV and SAND both of these are on us exchanges.

my thinking is that when the bull market in gold resumes, there will be different winners in the sector from the last time gold moved.

i no longer have any hedge on vs. physical gold even though there is a good chance of more downside in it.

sammy the sage
12-30-2013, 10:45 PM
Anyone want to post any other ideas? I know year end is a completely arbitrary point and 1 year a completely arbitrary end point but I was hoping there would be some other idea(s) I could measure this against.

Don't be shy. They'll be haters but unless they have something of their own own to post it's just part of being on the interwebs.

Unless you HAVE insight to THE FED's future actions of if/when...anything would be pretty much A GUESS...

Fundamentals really don't mean much...

long, long term...energy...think anything...personally like batteries...energy storage...

nano/micro tech...light refraction...next new social ground floor...rare earth elements NOT Chinese...

Problem w/stocks...anything going good will CERTAINLY BE DILUTED w/billions of extra shares printed as perks...

Think motorized electric bikes/trykes would be awesome investment...

oh...if you don't like my posts or style...just PUT ME on ignore... :lol:

_______
12-30-2013, 11:19 PM
i think gold is bottoming around $1050. its probably going to take until July to get any upward movement on it.

i have been slowly buying mining stocks, most of them on the Toronto or Venture exchange. i am buying junior mining stocks with decent balance sheets. so far i have bought 2 of them KDX.to and KOR.to

i am close to buying FNV and SAND both of these are on us exchanges.

my thinking is that when the bull market in gold resumes, there will be different winners in the sector from the last time gold moved.

i no longer have any hedge on vs. physical gold even though there is a good chance of more downside in it.

Thanks lambo. I'll put you down for all 4 and weight them equally unless you want to narrow it down or weight differently.

_______
12-30-2013, 11:31 PM
Unless you HAVE insight to THE FED's future actions of if/when...anything would be pretty much A GUESS...

Fundamentals really don't mean much...

long, long term...energy...think anything...personally like batteries...energy storage...

nano/micro tech...light refraction...next new social ground floor...rare earth elements NOT Chinese...

Problem w/stocks...anything going good will CERTAINLY BE DILUTED w/billions of extra shares printed as perks...

Think motorized electric bikes/trykes would be awesome investment...

oh...if you don't like my posts or style...just PUT ME on ignore... :lol:

Everyone has insight into the Fed's future actions. They publish the minutes of their meetings and announce in big bold letters what their plans are. It isn't 1990 anymore.

Not that they have a whole lot of control over 30 year rates at this point.

But I'll put you down as bullish on a smug arrogant 2014.

badcompany
12-30-2013, 11:46 PM
The three that have made me money:

1. Long Equities

2. Short Yen

3. Short Gold/Silver


As a trend trader, I keep going back to these until they stop working.

reckless
12-31-2013, 07:04 PM
I have four trades that may fit the theme of this thread. The prices listed are the closing prices today, 12-31-13. I will judge the success or failure of these trades by the closing prices one year from today.

Long three companies:

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) $27.98

Lorillard (LO) $50.68

Apple (AAPL) $561.02

Short one company:

Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) $55.26.

Good luck to each and every one here and in the trading pits, either financial or equine.

_______
12-31-2013, 11:08 PM
12/31/2013

_______: 1.0 SBND @ 10.54

lamboguy: .25 KLNDF @ 1.52
.25 CORVF @ 1.09
.25 FNV @ 40.74
.25 SAND @ 4.27

reckless: .25 HPQ @ 27.98
.25 LO@ 50.68
.25 AAPL @ 561.02
short .25 BHI @ 55.26

I'll update status quarterly but year end is all that counts. I'll calculate % gain/loss overall. it's an equal investment in each unless you want to clarify before Thursday open.

badcompany
12-31-2013, 11:45 PM
CERN
NEU
PPG
MTD

plainolebill
01-01-2014, 02:04 AM
I have a flock of CEFs I swap in and out of but leaving those aside I'll go all in on GPK.L - GUKYF on the pinks. Closed at $2.90 today.

_______
01-01-2014, 01:37 PM
12/31/2013

_______:

1.0 SBND @ 10.54

lamboguy:

.25 KLNDF @ 1.52
.25 CORVF @ 1.09
.25 FNV @ 40.74
.25 SAND @ 4.27

reckless:

.25 HPQ @ 27.98
.25 LO@ 50.68
.25 AAPL @ 561.02
short .25 BHI @ 55.26

bad company:

.25 CERN @ 55.74
.25 NEU @ 334.15
.25 PPG @ 189.66
.25 MTD @ 242.59

plainolebill:

1 GUKYF @ 2.90

Saratoga_Mike
01-01-2014, 01:41 PM
Other than being contrarian, do you have some reason that would explain why long term interest rates would remain flat or fall?

You might be overthinking it. If you don't like this, what would you substitute in as a 2014 winner.

Plot long rates under QE1 and QE2. What happened? Rates went up. A reduction in the rate of Fed purchases won't necessarily push rates higher. I suspect your position is correct (may have the wrong vehicle to exploit it, though), but I don't make macro directional bets.

_______
01-01-2014, 02:00 PM
Plot long rates under QE1 and QE2. What happened? Rates went up. A reduction in the rate of Fed purchases won't necessarily push rates higher. I suspect your position is correct (may have the wrong vehicle to exploit it, though), but I don't make macro directional bets.

If there's still an assumption that I viewed Fed policy as having some kind of strong influence on long term interest rates I want to be clear that isn't the case. Fed policy has a strong impact on short term rates but that impact dissipates as you go longer.

Even if the Fed changes direction and keeps QE2 in place, the curve will steepen and long term rates will be higher at the end of the year.

I'm curious why you think the vehicle is wrong.

sammy the sage
01-01-2014, 05:44 PM
I'm curious why you think the vehicle is wrong.

HHHHmmmm...yes I came across as a little SMUG.....but hey now you've got TWO people telling you the SAME thing...

just trying to HELP you...yes it was sarcastic...but was THE truth..

I lost 100k plus... in 2007/8...it hurts...you keep going...all I got say...you obviously have lot's to learn...

as far as original topic...I have no set companies to play...I'm out...it's crooked...PERIOD...

it's going TO CRASH...when...I have NO CLUE as P.A. will tell you...

All I know...I lost 1000k in (yeah those 0's are right) in 1999...and I was RIGHT ABOUT market correction...just timed wrong...oh well...life goes on...

Anyways....you NEED to learn more about ETF's...and B.O.L

_______
01-01-2014, 08:22 PM
HHHHmmmm...yes I came across as a little SMUG.....but hey now you've got TWO people telling you the SAME thing...

just trying to HELP you...yes it was sarcastic...but was THE truth..

I lost 100k plus... in 2007/8...it hurts...you keep going...all I got say...you obviously have lot's to learn...

as far as original topic...I have no set companies to play...I'm out...it's crooked...PERIOD...

it's going TO CRASH...when...I have NO CLUE as P.A. will tell you...

All I know...I lost 1000k in (yeah those 0's are right) in 1999...and I was RIGHT ABOUT market correction...just timed wrong...oh well...life goes on...

Anyways....you NEED to learn more about ETF's...and B.O.L

Thanks for the good wishes and I'm sorry to hear about your losses. I lost around 100,000 in the 2007/8 bear but stayed invested afterwards. I retired in September and am more diversified now than I was then.

I have had a position in this ETF since mid-November. It accounts for about 2.5% of my total portfolio and about 1.5% of my net worth.

I understand there is a 0.66% management fee and a .01 spread in the bid/ask when markets are open. I pay a $8.95 commission entering and leaving any position. I have a pretty good financial education though it wasn't what I did for a living.

I'm not clear what specifically about ETF's in general or this one in particular that has you and Mike concerned. In real life this is a small overall bet that I entered as a hedge for a larger fixed income position. As I looked at it over time I started to like it as a stand alone which is why I posted it here.

I don't think I'm missing anything but none of us do until we get blindsided. Which is why I solicited Mike (and now you) for specifics on your concerns.

Shemp Howard
01-01-2014, 09:13 PM
GCVRZ

Looks like an e-z triple from here.

sammy the sage
01-02-2014, 12:30 AM
quick nuts & bolts on leveraged ETF's...even if you get the direction right...long term holding value is destroyed because of the DAILY up/downs cost of them DOING business....you SHOULD know this...BEFORE getting in.



just pull up the 2 yr charts for SBND vs it's opposite LBND...you'd lost YOUR ass if backed either one LONG term...which IS THE problem in a nutshell...

Leveraged ETF's are BEST used for SHORT term strong moves...or hedges...albeit short term only.

my final two cents...1943 copper that is!

_______
01-02-2014, 11:12 AM
quick nuts & bolts on leveraged ETF's...even if you get the direction right...long term holding value is destroyed because of the DAILY up/downs cost of them DOING business....you SHOULD know this...BEFORE getting in.



just pull up the 2 yr charts for SBND vs it's opposite LBND...you'd lost YOUR ass if backed either one LONG term...which IS THE problem in a nutshell...

Leveraged ETF's are BEST used for SHORT term strong moves...or hedges...albeit short term only.

my final two cents...1943 copper that is!

Got it and thank you. You're right that I didn't understand volatility would destroy value even if I have the direction right. I'm locked in on this for the contest but sold off my real world position (6% profit) this morning.

I appreciate you taking the time to explain. I read up on this after your comments (yes I should have done that BEFORE buying) and have a fuller understanding of the instrument.

I'm glad PA decided to start this section and glad you chimed in. Thanks for the help.

PICSIX
01-02-2014, 02:37 PM
Got it and thank you. You're right that I didn't understand volatility would destroy value even if I have the direction right. I'm locked in on this for the contest but sold off my real world position (6% profit) this morning.

I appreciate you taking the time to explain. I read up on this after your comments (yes I should have done that BEFORE buying) and have a fuller understanding of the instrument.

I'm glad PA decided to start this section and glad you chimed in. Thanks for the help.

Take a look at TQQQ vs SQQQ :ThmbUp:

This site will help you tremendously:

http://wishingwealthblog.com/

badcompany
01-02-2014, 03:39 PM
Looks like we didn't break too well out of the gate. Hopefully, this selling is profit taking by those didn't want to pay 2013 Cap Gains Taxes.

And hopefully, these same people will get schooled when the market heads higher.

I've never believed in taking profits for the sake of taking profits. What you're doing is essentially limiting your profits and insuring that you never hit home runs.

reckless
01-02-2014, 08:41 PM
Looks like we didn't break too well out of the gate. Hopefully, this selling is profit taking by those didn't want to pay 2013 Cap Gains Taxes.

And hopefully, these same people will get schooled when the market heads higher.

I've never believed in taking profits for the sake of taking profits. What you're doing is essentially limiting your profits and insuring that you never hit home runs.

Selling today would have done you no good if the purpose was to take advantage of 2013 capital gains tax rates, which are lower than what we'll pay this year. That trade needed to be 'settled' in 2013.

I believe today's selling was mostly all those hedge and mutual funds that bid up the market in the last days of 2013. Those trades were made for 'window dressing' and were not true investments.

Sometimes investors are like horse players (by nature short term, like 1:11 seconds on average) and taking profits for the sake of taking profits isn't the best move to make long term.

badcompany
01-02-2014, 10:37 PM
Selling today would have done you no good if the purpose was to take advantage of 2013 capital gains tax rates, which are lower than what we'll pay this year. That trade needed to be 'settled' in 2013.
.

I was talking about delaying the bill for a year.

reckless
01-02-2014, 11:11 PM
I misunderstood ya, sorry about that.

All that out of Congress might happen as we get closer to the Nov. election, don't you think?

And if there's ever a repatriation deal to bring home some of the money stuck oversees there's no telling how high the market could go.

Saratoga_Mike
01-13-2014, 07:07 PM
The thread starters ETF is down 8.7% since the beginning of this month (the perils of macro bets), but there's still lots of time left in 2014, so we'll see. The 10-yr yield has dropped about 18 bps on the yr, closing out today around 2.82%.

badcompany
01-13-2014, 08:39 PM
The thread starters ETF is down 8.7% since the beginning of this month (the perils of macro bets), but there's still lots of time left in 2014, so we'll see. The 10-yr yield has dropped about 18 bps on the yr, closing out today around 2.82%.

Not loving this chart the stock not only plowed through the 100 day sma, but it has given back most of the move it made in November. Revisting old territory after a breakout is a negative indicator in my book.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/null_zps528378f4.png

_______
03-31-2014, 05:53 PM
Hope the columns worked. If so, it's the price on market close the last day of 2013, the price at close today and percent gain or loss. The assumption for those who had multiple picks are that they are equal weighted. You started with the same $ amount of each.


1st Quarter excluding dividends. I'll try to update with dividends in the next day or so:
_______:

1.0 SBND @ 10.54 8.36 20.6%

lamboguy:

.25 KLNDF @ 1.52 1.7367 14.26%
.25 CORVF @ 1.09 1.3297 21.99%
.25 FNV @ 40.74 45.86 12.57%
.25 SAND @ 4.27 5.57 30.45%
Total: 19.81%

reckless:

.25 HPQ @ 27.98 32.36 15.65%
.25 LO@ 50.68 54.08 6.71%
.25 AAPL @ 561.02 536.73 4.33%
short .25 BHI @ 55.26 65.02 16.66%
Total: 0.37%

bad company:

.25 CERN @ 55.74 56.25 0.92%
.25 NEU @ 334.15 390.7799 16.95%
.25 PPG @ 189.66 193.46 2.00%
.25 MTD @ 242.59 235.68 2.85%
Total: 17.02%

plainolebill:

1 GUKYF @ 2.90 1.44 50.35%

thaskalos
03-31-2014, 06:08 PM
Hope the columns worked. If so, it's the price on market close the last day of 2013, the price at close today and percent gain or loss. The assumption for those who had multiple picks are that they are equal weighted. You started with the same $ amount of each.


1st Quarter excluding dividends. I'll try to update with dividends in the next day or so:
_______:

1.0 SBND @ 10.54 8.36 20.6%

lamboguy:

.25 KLNDF @ 1.52 1.7367 14.26%
.25 CORVF @ 1.09 1.3297 21.99%
.25 FNV @ 40.74 45.86 12.57%
.25 SAND @ 4.27 5.57 30.45%
Total: 19.81%

reckless:

.25 HPQ @ 27.98 32.36 15.65%
.25 LO@ 50.68 54.08 6.71%
.25 AAPL @ 561.02 536.73 4.33%
short .25 BHI @ 55.26 65.02 16.66%
Total: 0.37%

bad company:

.25 CERN @ 55.74 56.25 0.92%
.25 NEU @ 334.15 390.7799 16.95%
.25 PPG @ 189.66 193.46 2.00%
.25 MTD @ 242.59 235.68 2.85%
Total: 17.02%

plainolebill:

1 GUKYF @ 2.90 1.44 50.35%

Looking at Lamboguy's and Badcompany's individual picks...it's hard to imagine that they have similar overall ROIs.

Are you sure you didn't forget to divide Badcompany's total by 4?

_______
03-31-2014, 06:24 PM
Looking at Lamboguy's and Badcompany's individual picks...it's hard to imagine that they have similar overall ROIs.

Are you sure you didn't forget to divide Badcompany's total by 4?

I did forget to divide. Thanks for spotting it. Will get it corrected.

_______
03-31-2014, 06:26 PM
Hope the columns worked. If so, it's the price on market close the last day of 2013, the price at close today and percent gain or loss. The assumption for those who had multiple picks are that they are equal weighted. You started with the same $ amount of each.


1st Quarter excluding dividends. I'll try to update with dividends in the next day or so:
_______:

1.0 SBND @ 10.54 8.36 20.6%

lamboguy:

.25 KLNDF @ 1.52 1.7367 14.26%
.25 CORVF @ 1.09 1.3297 21.99%
.25 FNV @ 40.74 45.86 12.57%
.25 SAND @ 4.27 5.57 30.45%
Total: 19.81%

reckless:

.25 HPQ @ 27.98 32.36 15.65%
.25 LO@ 50.68 54.08 6.71%
.25 AAPL @ 561.02 536.73 4.33%
short .25 BHI @ 55.26 65.02 16.66%
Total: 0.37%

bad company:

.25 CERN @ 55.74 56.25 0.92%
.25 NEU @ 334.15 390.7799 16.95%
.25 PPG @ 189.66 193.46 2.00%
.25 MTD @ 242.59 235.68 2.85%
Total: 4.26%

plainolebill:

1 GUKYF @ 2.90 1.44 50.35%

Tape Reader
03-31-2014, 10:30 PM
[QUOTE=_______]Hope the columns worked. If so, it's the price on market close the last day of 2013, the price at close today and percent gain or loss. The assumption for those who had multiple picks are that they are equal weighted. You started with the same $ amount of each.


Just one question. Do you trade?

_______
03-31-2014, 11:03 PM
[QUOTE=_______]Hope the columns worked. If so, it's the price on market close the last day of 2013, the price at close today and percent gain or loss. The assumption for those who had multiple picks are that they are equal weighted. You started with the same $ amount of each.


Just one question. Do you trade?

When I buy anything it's with the expectation I will hold it for a long period of time. I don't trade in the sense that most who post in this section do.

badcompany
04-01-2014, 12:55 AM
Good job, _________.

All in all, a pretty frustrating first 1/4. A number of my stocks broke out of bases, nicely, only to retreat, Cerner (CERN) being one.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/5c5db245b276fe167abd0b35376b3039_zps5602e81f.jpg

highnote
04-20-2014, 01:59 AM
What is your method of shorting Yen?



The three that have made me money:

1. Long Equities

2. Short Yen

3. Short Gold/Silver


As a trend trader, I keep going back to these until they stop working.

badcompany
04-20-2014, 11:37 AM
Buying the Dollar/Yen. It's been a flat trade recently, but the long term trend is still favorable.

Saratoga_Mike
05-14-2014, 04:29 PM
With the 10-yr hitting a new 2014 low (yield, not price) today, the thread starter's SBND is now down 28.8% on the yr. The year isn't over, but this is another example of why pure macro bets are so difficult (I would have thought the 10-yr yield would have gone up too, but for different reasons....the Fed was NOT suppressing the long-end--biggest misconception in the world).

badcompany
05-14-2014, 07:01 PM
With the 10-yr hitting a new 2014 low (yield, not price) today, the thread starter's SBND is now down 28.8% on the yr. The year isn't over, but this is another example of why pure macro bets are so difficult (I would have thought the 10-yr yield would have gone up too, but for different reasons....the Fed was NOT suppressing the long-end--biggest misconception in the world).

The problem is that you can't know how much of the macro has already been priced in.

_______
06-09-2014, 11:09 PM
I will be traveling after 6/25 until late in July. I'll post results through 6/24 after the market closes that day.

If anyone wants to run an update on the 30th, feel free. I should be here for the 3rd and 4th quarters.

_______
06-25-2014, 01:16 PM
Have been busy getting ready for a trip and did not update this for 2nd quarter.

Will have 3rd quarter update in September.

_______
09-30-2014, 07:54 PM
Hope the columns worked. If so, it's the price on market close the last day of 2013, the price at close today and percent gain or loss. The assumption for those who had multiple picks are that they are equal weighted. You started with the same $ amount of each.


1st Quarter excluding dividends. I'll try to update with dividends in the next day or so:
_______:

1.0 SBND @ 10.54 8.36 20.6%

lamboguy:

.25 KLNDF @ 1.52 1.7367 14.26%
.25 CORVF @ 1.09 1.3297 21.99%
.25 FNV @ 40.74 45.86 12.57%
.25 SAND @ 4.27 5.57 30.45%
Total: 19.81%

reckless:

.25 HPQ @ 27.98 32.36 15.65%
.25 LO@ 50.68 54.08 6.71%
.25 AAPL @ 561.02 536.73 4.33%
short .25 BHI @ 55.26 65.02 16.66%
Total: 0.37%

bad company:

.25 CERN @ 55.74 56.25 0.92%
.25 NEU @ 334.15 390.7799 16.95%
.25 PPG @ 189.66 193.46 2.00%
.25 MTD @ 242.59 235.68 2.85%
Total: 4.26%

plainolebill:

1 GUKYF @ 2.90 1.44 50.35%

Updating with results through the 3rd Quarter. Same format as above:

_______:

1.0 SBND 10.54 6.54 37.95%


Lamboguy:

.25 KLNDF 1.52 1.5983 5.15%
.25 CORVF 1.09 0.8036 26.28%
.25 FNV 40.74 48.88 19.98%
.25 SAND 4.27 4.30 0.70%

Total: 0.975%

Reckless:

HPQ 27.98 35.47 26.77%
LO 50.68 59.91 18.21%
AAPL 561.02 705.25 25.71%
short BHI 55.26 65.06 17.73%

Total: 13.24%

Bad Company:

CERN 55.74 59.57 6.87%
NEU 334.15 381.02 14.03%
PPG 189.66 196.74 3.73%
MTD 242.59 256.13 5.58%

Total: 7.55%

plainolbill:

GUKYF 2.90 1.02 64.83%

barn32
09-30-2014, 08:47 PM
Buy SBND. It's an ETF that tracks 3x the inverse of long term treasury bonds...

Pardon me for asking, but how do you pronounce your name?

_______
09-30-2014, 08:57 PM
Pardon me for asking, but how do you pronounce your name?

"Don"

barn32
09-30-2014, 09:37 PM
"Don"Thanks. I thought that's what it was.

ReplayRandall
09-30-2014, 10:58 PM
I have taken the time to read every post on this thread from the beginning, absorbing the "nuggets" of wise investment choices and some not so wise. I truly have respect for each and every one of you, as you put your heart, soul, mind and money into what you believe and have researched. I have a very short opinion I would like to give at this time.

I believe without a shadow of doubt that the wisest of investors know when to sell and take profit. It is better to be out of the market 6 months too soon, than to be in the market one minute too late. Therefore, I highly suggest the time to sell and get out is now, as October will be one of the worst months in the last 5 years. Come back to this thread Nov.1st and see the results of the market correction after the FED finally gives up.

As of the close today Sept.30th, S&P: 1972....Dow:17,029....Nasdaq:4493

PaceAdvantage
09-30-2014, 11:26 PM
I've been thinking this too, but I have recently changed my mind. Too many people have your opinion...too many people think the big drop is just around the corner. And when too many people think something is going to happen in the market, just the opposite tends to occur...after all, it's the job of the market to take the most money from the most people as it can...

The downturn usually occurs after a blowoff top...we haven't had that...not even close...the market has slowly melted up...nonstop....

Plus, some of the brighter minds I've read recently have made a good case that a big correction is still 6 months to a year away...so I disagree that October will be a bloodbath...

We shall see I suppose.

_______
09-30-2014, 11:51 PM
Historically the 4th quarter is the best one for equities. I'm not clear what would drive stocks lower in what looks to be benign economic times. Multiples aren't completely out of whack (I'm not saying they're cheap) and the environment looks good for earnings.

I certainly understand wanting to take profits if one is trading. But for a long term investor, a correction would just be a healthy development in a long term bull market.

Energy stocks actually do have attractive multiples and would be a place I'd look to enter the market now with a 2-3 year holding period. BHI or other equipment and services providers look reasonably priced if you believe that China won't actually explode and that the ECB will get Europe back on track.

PaceAdvantage
10-01-2014, 12:00 AM
By the way.

Take a look at a daily chart of the SPY...look at where we are now...then look back at the period from February 2014 to around April 11 of 2014. The chart formation looks almost identical to what we've seen from early August until today, including volume.

The market ended up going up another 10% after April 11.

We could be looking at an identical scenario going forward...

S&P 2170...here we come...

Tape Reader
10-01-2014, 10:46 AM
I have taken the time to read every post on this thread from the beginning, absorbing the "nuggets" of wise investment choices and some not so wise. I truly have respect for each and every one of you, as you put your heart, soul, mind and money into what you believe and have researched. I have a very short opinion I would like to give at this time.

I believe without a shadow of doubt that the wisest of investors know when to sell and take profit. It is better to be out of the market 6 months too soon, than to be in the market one minute too late. Therefore, I highly suggest the time to sell and get out is now, as October will be one of the worst months in the last 5 years. Come back to this thread Nov.1st and see the results of the market correction after the FED finally gives up.

As of the close today Sept.30th, S&P: 1972....Dow:17,029....Nasdaq:4493

Right or wrong I luv your style.

badcompany
10-01-2014, 11:09 AM
I certainly understand wanting to take profits if one is trading. But for a long term investor, a correction would just be a healthy development in a long term bull market.

The reality is that you're not gonna make money, long term, in the market, if you're not willing to sit through corrections.

What happens is that you sell, the market goes back up, you get tired of being on the outside looking in as the market rises, you buy back, usually at the end of the rally, only to be scared out, again.

Of course, there are some geniuses out there who can consistently predict short and long term tops and bottom. I haven't met any, or seen any on CNBC, but, from what I hear, they exist.

Nice work on the stock selection chart, Don.

PaceAdvantage
10-01-2014, 01:14 PM
You guys just knew after my post last night, we'd see a big down day today...the first of October... :lol: :lol: :lol:

badcompany
10-01-2014, 03:04 PM
You guys just knew after my post last night, we'd see a big down day today...the first of October... :lol: :lol: :lol:

I did think of you when I first saw today's carnage.

That said, the last four times the market broke the 100sma some serious buying took over. Hopefully, there will be a "Drive for Five."

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/56238AA0-CDCC-4286-9A37-D6D363267C45_zpsqkwr33ua.png (http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/56238AA0-CDCC-4286-9A37-D6D363267C45_zpsqkwr33ua.png.html)

PaceAdvantage
10-09-2014, 02:02 AM
And just like that, the two big down moves of October have basically been erased...

badcompany
10-09-2014, 02:00 PM
And just like that, the two big down moves of October have basically been erased...

You might want to reconsider this statement, Mike. ;)

highnote
10-09-2014, 03:42 PM
VIX is up over 4 points today. That's the biggest one day jump I've seen since I started tracking it as part of my daily model a couple of years of ago.

Also, down volume to up volume is 90% to 9%. That's also about the biggest negative I've seen.

I went into about 80% cash a week ago and when things settle down I'll start buying again. Remember -- buy when there is blood in the streets.

The good news is that there volatility is good if you like trading options.

Option trading was great back in 2009 when the volatility was sky high, but in the past few years I haven't been able to find as many low hanging fruit options trades.

PaceAdvantage
10-09-2014, 05:21 PM
You might want to reconsider this statement, Mike. ;)Crazy times! :lol:

It finally makes sense to start day trading futures again...

badcompany
10-09-2014, 06:43 PM
Crazy times! :lol:

It finally makes sense to start day trading futures again...

Funny, how when the market is rallying we continually hear about how a correction would be healthy, but, when it does come, it's the end the effin' world.

That said, I'm still bullish. This type of volatility with the market only 5% off an all time high, IMO, smells like a shakeout.

You have to remember that some of these equity hedge funds are levered up 5-1. A 5% move with this type of Volatility is gonna free up a tremendous amount of stock.

badcompany
10-09-2014, 07:03 PM
Another Bullish sign:

Cramer is Bearish.

Tape Reader
10-10-2014, 11:38 PM
I have taken the time to read every post on this thread from the beginning, absorbing the "nuggets" of wise investment choices and some not so wise. I truly have respect for each and every one of you, as you put your heart, soul, mind and money into what you believe and have researched. I have a very short opinion I would like to give at this time.

I believe without a shadow of doubt that the wisest of investors know when to sell and take profit. It is better to be out of the market 6 months too soon, than to be in the market one minute too late. Therefore, I highly suggest the time to sell and get out is now, as October will be one of the worst months in the last 5 years. Come back to this thread Nov.1st and see the results of the market correction after the FED finally gives up.

As of the close today Sept.30th, S&P: 1972....Dow:17,029....Nasdaq:4493

Good call ReplayRandall. My hat is off to you.

PaceAdvantage
10-13-2014, 05:21 PM
I have taken the time to read every post on this thread from the beginning, absorbing the "nuggets" of wise investment choices and some not so wise. I truly have respect for each and every one of you, as you put your heart, soul, mind and money into what you believe and have researched. I have a very short opinion I would like to give at this time.

I believe without a shadow of doubt that the wisest of investors know when to sell and take profit. It is better to be out of the market 6 months too soon, than to be in the market one minute too late. Therefore, I highly suggest the time to sell and get out is now, as October will be one of the worst months in the last 5 years. Come back to this thread Nov.1st and see the results of the market correction after the FED finally gives up.

As of the close today Sept.30th, S&P: 1972....Dow:17,029....Nasdaq:4493You're starting to look like a genius. Today was ugly...again....and the daily chart now looks ugly. Market is down 7% since the September all-time high...down 4.8% since you posted...I hope you're short and making money.

highnote
10-13-2014, 11:13 PM
Good post ReplayRandall!

My selling point was S&P 1928 -- 4% below it's high point. I actually sold before it hit 1928 because of some other factors. It needs to rise to about 1980 before I will buy again.

I have taken the time to read every post on this thread from the beginning, absorbing the "nuggets" of wise investment choices and some not so wise. I truly have respect for each and every one of you, as you put your heart, soul, mind and money into what you believe and have researched. I have a very short opinion I would like to give at this time.

I believe without a shadow of doubt that the wisest of investors know when to sell and take profit. It is better to be out of the market 6 months too soon, than to be in the market one minute too late. Therefore, I highly suggest the time to sell and get out is now, as October will be one of the worst months in the last 5 years. Come back to this thread Nov.1st and see the results of the market correction after the FED finally gives up.

As of the close today Sept.30th, S&P: 1972....Dow:17,029....Nasdaq:4493

highnote
10-15-2014, 02:31 PM
After the S&P hitting my selling point of 1928, it has fallen like a rock! More than 100 points below the selling point!!

That's about a 9.5% drop from it's peak at 2010.

Remember, buy when there is blood in the streets. It's not time to buy, yet, but it might be soon.

badcompany
10-15-2014, 03:08 PM
After the S&P hitting my selling point of 1928, it has fallen like a rock! More than 100 points below the selling point!!

That's about a 9.5% drop from it's peak at 2010.

Remember, buy when there is blood in the streets. It's not time to buy, yet, but it might be soon.

The problem with sayings like that is you never really know if there is blood on the streets or how much. This could be the end of a shakeout or just the beginning.

From my experience, whether your indicators have you in or out of the market. It's best to sit tight and let things play out. While this seems crazy, in the present, here's what it looks like, long term.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/CED2DE3D-5D83-49B4-9B37-665B67D8A896_zpspm0xa10r.png (http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/CED2DE3D-5D83-49B4-9B37-665B67D8A896_zpspm0xa10r.png.html)

highnote
10-15-2014, 03:31 PM
The problem with sayings like that is you never really know if there is blood on the streets or how much. This could be the end of a shakeout or just the beginning.

From my experience, whether your indicators have you in or out of the market. It's best to sit tight and let things play out. While this seems crazy, in the present, here's what it looks like, long term.



I agree. When I get a buy indicator then I will buy. The S&P needs to rise 4% from a low before I will buy. There are some other buy indicators. It might be awhile.

This market could get a lot worse. I don't remember the 1930s, but I had parents who did.

I heard a good analogy... when a main falls down a short flight of stairs he can get up, brush himself off and resume what he was doing, but when a man falls out of a window it takes a lot longer before he can get up and resume what he was doing.

The question is... has the market fallen a few steps or is it going to fall out the window? We don't know. Someone with better info than me might have a better sense of where this market is headed, but since I don't know, I'll sit tight.

_______
10-15-2014, 05:08 PM
I know I'm the guy who said "buy SBND" to start this thread and understand that everyone will (and should) take anything after that with a grain of salt.

But there is NOTHING about this market that looks like anything but a healthy pullback. Everyone has been aching for a correction and now that it's (almost) here, there is talk about the 1930's?

This is the financial equivalent of Ebola hysteria. Lyme disease is more likely to kill you but that isn't the perception right now.

It's been way too long since there has been volatility in the market and now that it's kinda sorta back we should be recognizing it as a return to normal and not the end of the financial world.

jms62
10-15-2014, 05:40 PM
The Russell 2000 led this to the downside but has been stabilizing while the Nasdaq SPX and DJI are playing catchup to the downside. Todays action was positive and I would be encouraged if NFLX wasn't down 120 points after hours. Tomorrow could be interesting.

badcompany
10-15-2014, 06:14 PM
The Russell 2000 led this to the downside but has been stabilizing while the Nasdaq SPX and DJI are playing catchup to the downside. Todays action was positive and I would be encouraged if NFLX wasn't down 120 points after hours. Tomorrow could be interesting.

A momentum stock like NFLX wasn't gonna get out of a shakeout like this unscathed. Usually the stocks that had the biggest rises take the biggest falls.

One the stocks I listed, here, PPG, reports before the bell, tomorrow. I've had it for about two years. 2013 was great; 2014, eh.

It's @180, down from 210. Should be interesting.

reckless
10-16-2014, 12:54 PM
On Tuesday and Wednesday, I bought some GCI, PFE, ORCL, and HFC.

I am not a chart guy so I figure I could be catching a falling knife here but they all fell into a buy price metric I have been using all my 'career'.

Simply, I buy companies with a history of growing earnings, sales, dividends and cash flow. All these purchases fit this bill AND sell less than 10 times free cash flow, my main metric. HollyFrontier, a refiner, is now selling at about 5 times FCF, even with the bump this morning. They will benefit from lower crude prices.

I am a long-term holder so I try not to watch the crowd on CNBC during times like this. :D

Good luck everyone.

highnote
10-16-2014, 02:01 PM
I used to own HFC. If I recall correctly, they benefit from the WTI/Brent spread. The only knock on them is that they do not have enough free cash per share to survive three years of losses, but I don't know how much that matters given the type of industry they are in.



On Tuesday and Wednesday, I bought some GCI, PFE, ORCL, and HFC.

I am not a chart guy so I figure I could be catching a falling knife here but they all fell into a buy price metric I have been using all my 'career'.

Simply, I buy companies with a history of growing earnings, sales, dividends and cash flow. All these purchases fit this bill AND sell less than 10 times free cash flow, my main metric. HollyFrontier, a refiner, is now selling at about 5 times FCF, even with the bump this morning. They will benefit from lower crude prices.

I am a long-term holder so I try not to watch the crowd on CNBC during times like this. :D

Good luck everyone.

badcompany
10-16-2014, 06:18 PM
A momentum stock like NFLX wasn't gonna get out of a shakeout like this unscathed. Usually the stocks that had the biggest rises take the biggest falls.

One the stocks I listed, here, PPG, reports before the bell, tomorrow. I've had it for about two years. 2013 was great; 2014, eh.

It's @180, down from 210. Should be interesting.

Deceptively strong day, today. PPG beat earnings but missed on revenue. Stock was down almost 5% in the pre-market but ended the day up.

badcompany
10-16-2014, 06:25 PM
I found this interesting, as well. SXL, an oil refinery absolutely fell off a cliff during this downturn, but in the last two days came back almost all the way.

To me, that's bullish: a fast, severe shakeout to get rid of weak hands, then a quick comeback, not allowing traders to get in at the bargain price.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/1B8E5765-9A3A-4E70-9345-33C647505559_zpspqadqxpe.png (http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/1B8E5765-9A3A-4E70-9345-33C647505559_zpspqadqxpe.png.html)

_______
10-16-2014, 08:42 PM
All the refiners got significantly oversold. Even if you believed oil was heading below $70, that doesn't really impact a company that processes the commodity and then sells the end product. Lower demand worldwide doesn't matter to a domestic company like SXL. So long as you believe demand is stable/increasing domestically there was no reason for the refiners (or pipelines) to sell off.

I think the bigger impact on Gulf Coast refiners going forward is the narrowing of the WTI/Brent spread. If that holds and isn't a blip their margins will narrow.

badcompany
10-31-2014, 06:24 PM
I believe without a shadow of doubt that the wisest of investors know when to sell and take profit. It is better to be out of the market 6 months too soon, than to be in the market one minute too late. Therefore, I highly suggest the time to sell and get out is now, as October will be one of the worst months in the last 5 years. Come back to this thread Nov.1st and see the results of the market correction after the FED finally gives up.

As of the close today Sept.30th, S&P: 1972....Dow:17,029....Nasdaq:4493

Dow 17390

S&P 2018

Nas 4630

Now, how do we rate RR's call?

First, I give him credit for putting himself out there and taking a stand, and for contributing to the board.

The call itself is interesting. It started out looking like a truly great call; yet here we are at the end of the month with the indexes all up over 3%.

There's a Horseracing analogy for everything and this is no exception:

The call was like a horse that blasted out of the gate, immediately took control of the race, and at the half way mark had a five length lead. Then, suddenly, the horse's stride started to shorten and the field began to catch up, and before long, the lead was gone. The horse limped home and finished out of the money.

It's happened to all of us.

Tape Reader
10-31-2014, 07:06 PM
Now, how do we rate RR's call?



I have a suspicion that he may make the same call for November as he did for October. I would/will.

P.S. congratulations to ReplayRandall, great call.

ReplayRandall
10-31-2014, 11:00 PM
I have taken the time to read every post on this thread from the beginning, absorbing the "nuggets" of wise investment choices and some not so wise. I truly have respect for each and every one of you, as you put your heart, soul, mind and money into what you believe and have researched. I have a very short opinion I would like to give at this time.

I believe without a shadow of doubt that the wisest of investors know when to sell and take profit. It is better to be out of the market 6 months too soon, than to be in the market one minute too late. Therefore, I highly suggest the time to sell and get out is now, as October will be one of the worst months in the last 5 years. Come back to this thread Nov.1st and see the results of the market correction after the FED finally gives up.

As of the close today Sept.30th, S&P: 1972....Dow:17,029....Nasdaq:4493


As of the close today Oct.31th, S&P: 2018....Dow:17,390....Nasdaq:4630


I'll make this short.......Looked "golden" thru Oct. 15th, made money on the shorts and gave 2/3rd's back on the straight line "V" pattern, thinking it was just a small buyback on the bounce. Oh well, the market storms back and actually shows a positive across the board for Oct........The market always manages to keep me humble, as I am still out and think there's another 5% minimum drop before Thanksgiving...........more humble pie with my turkey leg, please.

badcompany
12-31-2014, 05:07 PM
That's it for 2014.

S&P finishes with an 11.4% gain.

Good luck in 2015!

_______
12-31-2014, 05:54 PM
Congratulations to reckless who finished with the best overall return. He more than doubled the SP 500's return. badcompany also beat the index and additionally was the only one with 4 winners. HPQ was the best overall pick while plainolebill and I hang our heads in shame with the worst picks.

Thanks to all for participating.



_______:

1.0 SBND @ 10.54 5.01 52.47%

lamboguy:

.25 KLNDF @ 1.52 1.68 10.53%
.25 CORVF @ 1.09 0.82 24.77%
.25 FNV @ 40.74 49.19 20.74%
.25 SAND @ 4.27 3.40 20.38%

overall 3.47%

reckless:

.25 HPQ @ 27.98 40.13 43.42%
.25 LO@ 50.68 62.94 24.19%
.25 AAPL @ 561.02 772.66 37.72%
short .25 BHI @ 55.26 56.07 1.47%

overall 25.97%

bad company:

.25 CERN @ 55.74 64.67 16.02%
.25 NEU @ 334.15 403.53 20.76%
.25 PPG @ 189.66 231.15 21.88%
.25 MTD @ 242.59 302.46 24.68%

overall 20.84%

plainolebill:

1 GUKYF @ 2.90 1.00 65.51%

plainolebill
01-01-2015, 01:56 AM
Well GUKYF was a longshot but ISIS invading Iraq and threatening Kurdistan didn't help much. Better luck next year Bill. :lol:

sammy the sage
01-02-2015, 09:04 AM
just for the record...

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SBND+Interactive#%7B%22range%22%3A%221y% 22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%7D

badcompany
01-02-2015, 07:16 PM
just for the record...

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SBND+Interactive#%7B%22range%22%3A%221y% 22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%7D

Skiing anyone. ;)

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/4072e626a8995884f1c158ecd6c7786a_zps1c234aba.jpg

badcompany
01-02-2015, 07:22 PM
Congrats Reckless. I never would've had HPQ. I was very down on that company, still am. You just never know some times.

That said, I'm pretty happy with my performance and have no intention of selling any of those stocks unless something changes dramatically. Of course, the market is like Horseracing. Even when you have a good day/year you always think you could've done better.

_______
01-02-2015, 07:42 PM
Reckless earned the win with his great picks but having 4 of 4 all beat the S and P 500 was pretty impressive on its own.

_______
01-02-2015, 07:45 PM
Skiing anyone. ;)

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/4072e626a8995884f1c158ecd6c7786a_zps1c234aba.jpg

That looks like a beginner slope but felt like falling off a cliff in slow motion.

badcompany
01-02-2015, 07:51 PM
That looks like a beginner slope but felt like falling off a cliff in slow motion.


I hope you got out before too much pain was suffered.

badcompany
01-02-2015, 08:15 PM
Reckless earned the win with his great picks but having 4 of 4 all beat the S and P 500 was pretty impressive on its own.

Thanks. I believe that, much like Horseracing, there's as much art to it as science, and you have to have passion. Pouring over a racing form or a stock chart at midnight isn't for everyone.

I get people I know asking me about the stock market and I almost always recommend they stay clear simply because I don't think they'd be willing to do the legwork.

As an aside, if you had to hold either CERN or HPQ for the next five years, which one would you take? I'll stick with CERN.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/778db9a183bf11f514a8a1e721b3e94d_zps6cdd74a3.jpg

_______
01-02-2015, 08:30 PM
I hope you got out before too much pain was suffered.

Early on a number of posters (Saratoga Mike, Sammy the Sage off the top of my head.) educated me on the risks. I had set this up as a year long contest and lived with what I posted for the contest.

In real money I sold out a position on 1/2 that was established on 11/14.

badcompany
01-03-2015, 08:57 AM
Early on a number of posters (Saratoga Mike, Sammy the Sage off the top of my head.) educated me on the risks. I had set this up as a year long contest and lived with what I posted for the contest.

In real money I sold out a position on 1/2 that was established on 11/14.

Glad to hear it. We all have our less than brilliant picks. Fortunately, unlike horseracing, in the stock market, you can cancel your ticket after the race has started. :ThmbUp: