Just Paddock Observations

[turninforhome10]

As much as I would love to have a bank of monitors to be able to watch all the tracks I play I am confined to using TVG and Twinspires. Have played around with different configurations and had my best luck with a good ATI card and S- Video output to multiples TV's. The best I can do is a monitor for data and 2 tv's for 2 different tracks. When using Chrome and twinspires classic you can use open multiple dedicated windows media players in Theater mode, but the best I can do is two tracks due to limited monitor assignment capabilities. Any talk of how you best watch the paddock would be appreciated.

I the late 90's and early 2000's, I had a lot of fun while making some good claims and helping a slumping stable get back on it's feet. Also did quite well with all 4 of the horses I claimed for myself running out lifetime conditions in PA MD and WV. It was the horse I raised, broke trained and ultimately soaked me for every dime I made on the other 4, that I gathered the humility to realize that as much as they should run based on pedigree (3rd Dam- Peroxide Blond and out of Raja Baba mare), this filly could not out run a fat man. :bang: Qualifying statement for my thoughts on paddock observations. :rolleyes:
I Digress.

Just so we are on the same page, first thing I look at is equipment. Ask any trainer, there is nothing better than leading a horse to post with nothing but a D-bit and noseband unless the horse is just to slow to even tug on the bit. I feel it is a sign of a horse with discipline and responsive mouth. Many times these types can attend a pace better and make the job easier for a rider by allowing for better maneuverability. That being said lets try to find a well intended horse , I prefer maidens, that is racing in only a D-Bit and noseband with no other equipment.
As we progress through the day we will also examine how the equipment the horse reflects in their running style.
Sorry for being so long winded here, but I am trying to unwind from a whole year of db capping and am ready just to kick back with 50 dollar bankroll and watch the races untill Sun afternoon, so will try to keep the thread alive until Sunday. Feel free to chime in anytime.
With maidens pay attention to when the groom takes the lip chain off when in the paddock. If the horse is unruly the groom will use a chain shank and put it over the horses gums , better control of a bad steed. Worth noting
The 2nd race at GP The :4: looks really nice and fits my bill . Smaller and should like the surface. Looks ready to rumble. No handicapping just watching. Promise. 5w10p :4: The post and break are the concern. Paco better scoot.

[turninforhome10]

When watching the post parade I prefer a horse that is on the bit meaning not pulling on the bit, but with neck bowed and responding with nose slightly down and keeping the bit in the sweet spot.

[turninforhome10]

When the horse is walking I also like to see minimal head bobbing and the back feet landing where the front feet were. A reference I learned from sales.

[turninforhome10]

That was a strange ride by Paco, it almost looked like trainer told him to keep mud out of her face and she went really wide on the back side and while trying to run Paco had the brakes on. No excuses just down 15. That being said the connections of Lisa Lewis and Alex Solis are a solid pair and have a very good relationship. Being the fav and the :4: drifting upward was key to save a wager. Ego Be dammed.
Aqu Race 4 2wp :1: 2s :8:

[turninforhome10]

Does anyone else agree as the Inner progresses that odds start to move up? The good maidens are winning early in the meet and the bombs and apprentice rides heat up. Down 2.80

[turninforhome10]

Race 5 AQu
The :9: looks sharp 2wp :9:

What most newbies don't realize yet is that the best money to be made is when you can bet with a horseman that is betting on the same thing you are. Terranova removed the shades. Good horseman and it seems when he can get time with a horse, he can tend to keep good stock and bring it to form.
Return 26.20

[turninforhome10]

Instead of arguing about who is using drugs concentrate on those that you feel are truly doing justice to an animal that is running where they belong in class and speed. There are still honest people in the game. Pay attention to them and follow them with stable mail.

[turninforhome10]

When looking at horse in the paddock we can make some distinctions.
A horse with a shadow roll runs with the head high. This can be because of sight issues or running too high in the bit. Expect horses with a shadow roll to be as aggressive on the bit as their body make allows.

[turninforhome10]

Sorry for the delay. Ordered Korean. Love being in Philly.
Aqu 7th
Love the :6:
Subtle Form when moving. Toscano holding line
5 w s :6:

[turninforhome10]

When looking at Maidens on a yielding turf. Do you ask right away for quality firsters. Love Michelle as a horse trainer and love Joey as jock
5ws :4: Horse looks sharp

[turninforhome10]

When looking at Maidens on a yielding turf. Do you ask right away for quality firsters. Love Michelle as a horse trainer and love Joey as jock
5ws :4: Horse looks sharp

Joe wins easy and I do like a figure 8 noseband. Helps keep the bit in the bit groove in the jaw.
Return 76.50

[turninforhome10]

Sorry for the delay. Ordered Korean. Love being in Philly.
Aqu 7th
Love the :6:
Subtle Form when moving. Toscano holding line
5 w s :6:
Bad 4th
Loose 10

[turninforhome10]

Looking at the Robb at Aqu/ Pletcher has the :6: right.
5wp :6:
And in reality the :6: just paid my rent if I am smart enough to stay ahead.
Absolutely love Frost Giant being in NY.
Return 26.30 ;)

[turninforhome10]

Race 9 Aqu 5wp :1: even against drift

Jacobsen filled the race -10

[turninforhome10]

SA 3rd The :6: looks outstanding.
Like the :6: and Rafael bales. So use :6: :8: with the :6: :8: :2: : :1:

Chantal is so much better on fit speed than anything else. :6: Never involved :8: Ran his race and don't see forward progress without class relief.

[turninforhome10]

I guess what we have gathered so far is use your head when adding equipment to your horse. Why do they need blinkers. Find a running line that shows a horse would be better suited to wear blinkers. When wearing a shadow roll, can you watch a replay that show where the horse run head high. ;)

[turninforhome10]

Let's do this and get the West Coast going.
The Eddie Logan is pretty intense with Euros. Really prefer the Ire winner.
10w5p :3: Looks like a million and look at blood. http://www.pedigreequery.com/craftsman8
ACCEPTED: 67083-d7ad4cancel this wager SA #4 $1 Trifecta 3,​WT,2,6,8,​WT,1,2,6,8 none $ 9.00 - -
ACCEPTED: 2a54a-e8657cancel this wager SA #4 $2 Exacta 3,WT,6,8 none $ 4.00 - -
ACCEPTED: a8b49-ebe8ccancel this wager SA #4 $10 WP 3 none $ 20.00 - -

[turninforhome10]

Ouch First mistake was googling Mastercraftsman last race and seeing he went to the lead without checking splits. Ran a good race but does not fit on speed favoring SA turf. Will go longer next out and maybe run third. Gary Stevens's agent is working overtime. Gary is going to get the cream of the horse's that are well behaved and in form. Heed this.

As far as respect for horseman go, Tom Proctor has a vested interest in most of his charges. Lost half of the ticket cashed on Bravo. Moving on.

[turninforhome10]

FG Race 8
5wp :6: Like Richard for a decent showing. Underated

Nowhere on a poorly executed play.-10
Back to 65

[turninforhome10]

SA 5
The :3: looks like a million walking down the chute.
Juddmont needs the jock support
1 ex box
:3: :7: :8:
:3: has a very nice Hoist the Flag cross http://www.pedigreequery.com/garen

PS I felt the :3: is just feeling his oats as not sweating. 2yo's when you get them right can be a little rammy. Love a horse that bucks a little when they are ready to roll. Jock usually knows and will come back for more if worth the risk of horsemanship vested. Prefer higher %

[turninforhome10]

SA 5
The :3: looks like a million walking down the chute.
Juddmont needs the jock support
1 ex box
:3: :7: :8:
:3: has a very nice Hoist the Flag cross http://www.pedigreequery.com/garen

PS I felt the :3: is just feeling his oats as not sweating. 2yo's when you get them right can be a little rammy. Love a horse that bucks a little when they are ready to roll. Jock usually knows and will come back for more if worth the risk of horsemanship vested. Prefer higher %
Talk about hypocrisy. Give myself the :7: and should have played Proctor. Had I only handicapped. ;)
The :7: is a superior looking animal Stable mail. http://www.pedigreequery.com/cherubim8

[turninforhome10]

SA Race 6
The :6: looks well in the paddock. Love this double in a pedigree as the horse is showing class in the way he is carrying himself. http://www.pedigreequery.com/kozani2
2wp :6:
Bankroll 55

[Robert Fischer]

the 9 at Santa Anita caught my eye in the parade.

hmm... Now that I see he had trouble in last race @ 5/2 i will dig deeper.

[La billos]

Race 6: Going with the :9: a play from a friend at the track. Wanted the turf last time, ready to fire

[Robert Fischer]

i threw $25 on the 9 to shw

[Robert Fischer]

SA Race 6
The :6: looks well in the paddock. Love this double in a pedigree as the horse is showing class in the way he is carrying himself. http://www.pedigreequery.com/kozani2
2wp :6:
Bankroll 55

your 6 ran a good race :ThmbUp:

[turninforhome10]

I hate that feeling of having being pressed and being stuck inside turning for home. You know what I am talking. It takes alot for horse to both carry speed into and out of turn. Stable Mail Kozani. One for Grit and two for class of race for 2yos.
1.80 return.
56.80 Bankroll
Still alive and have enjoyed my day without even looking at a db.
Luddite Fever?

[Robert Fischer]

Race 6: Going with the :9: a play from a friend at the track. Wanted the turf last time, ready to fire

This race came up fairly tough with that 1.

I rushed through capping, and missed how fast the pace was for the 1 last time.

Looked like the 9 maybe could have gotten 3rd if Espinoza had straightened him initially in the drive.
Solid horse to include next time...

[turninforhome10]

GG Flyer 6th Just on looks
2wp :6:

OOOHHH. The wide trip due to being strangled back to get position cost me dearly. 14-1.
Return 10
Bankroll 65
Have played 106 dollars in wagers and still ahead 15

[judd]

santa anita race 7 no 3 THREE VASES w-p-s

[turninforhome10]

Back for the Daytona.
Hold tight and talk among yourselves, Running an errand.

[Robert Fischer]

santa anita race 7 no 3 THREE VASES w-p-s

w/ these lower claimers it's almost a different thing to look for.

No strong opinion, but I agree your 3 looks nice.

---
over @ penn r2 Stephanie Beattie just had a horse run 2nd time out. The funny part was that the horse ran big 1st time out... 2days ago :D ... and was dropping from a 25K tag to a 10K tag :confused::confused::confused: horse ran a good 2nd wonder if it got claimed.

I was scared and questioning why they'd run a sound 25K claimer for 10K...

[turninforhome10]

w/ these lower claimers it's almost a different thing to look for.

No strong opinion, but I agree your 3 looks nice.

---
over @ penn r2 Stephanie Beattie just had a horse run 2nd time out. The funny part was that the horse ran big 1st time out... 2days ago :D ... and was dropping from a 25K tag to a 10K tag :confused::confused::confused: horse ran a good 2nd wonder if it got claimed.

I was scared and questioning why they'd run a sound 25K claimer for 10K...
Just checked Monba's sire stats Yikes. Penn Ridge has him and I think his first crop is not fairing very well. 1 for 21. Penn Ridge would push best mares toward Tabasco Cat and from that crop Real Quiet.

[turninforhome10]

Daytona
10 W :4:
5 P :6: :7:
Hope I broke even here. A stumble and a very tired :7:



I believed I mention Stevens earlier in this thread and once again got bit.
Will Play the last at SA and thats it till tomorrow. Will use this same thread
5 return
70 bankroll
126 wagered.

[Robert Fischer]

Daytona
10 W :4:
5 P :6: :7:


this is a tough race.

4 - UN looks classy with his head low, very relaxed.

2- also classy.



having capped the race, I like the 4, but needs to time his move well with Nakatani. Someone could steal the race up front, and he also flattened out a bit last time. I think he's better and classier than the 2 however. The 8 is sneaky longshot IMO.

[turninforhome10]

:ThmbDown: P.S. Don't Mix Kim Chi with a Chocolate Stout.

[Robert Fischer]

:ThmbDown: P.S. Don't Mix Kim Chi with a Chocolate Stout.

:D
looked like the 4 was much the best. The 2 didn't do too much running and the race came up weak. 4 also got an easy trip. I had tossed the 1 because of the inside-post, but Stevens actually did well to force the issue early.

[turninforhome10]

:D
looked like the 4 was much the best. The 2 didn't do too much running and the race came up weak. 4 also got an easy trip. I had tossed the 1 because of the inside-post, but Stevens actually did well to force the issue early.
Stevens and Smith are the Pat Day and Jerry Bailey of SA. Older riders getting quality mounts.

[Robert Fischer]

this 11 in the last race @ SA is a greyhound.

[turninforhome10]

Sorry got sidetracked for the 9th will resume in the Am for the East. Thanks for reading
Bankroll 75
126 wagered
15 staked.
Better to learn this lesson when up
( I love the old Beat Club Vids) Sleep tight.
l_4iQDYDVNo

And a good link for racing bit knowledge.
http://rockandracehorses.wordpress.com/2009/02/21/racehorses-bits-commonly-used-in-thoroughbred-horse-racing-sales-breeding/

The regulator is also known as a Haughton Bit. Works good for horses that try to get under a bit also.

[turninforhome10]

:ThmbUp: Chalk but nailed Wonder if claimed? this 11 in the last race @ SA is a greyhound.

[turninforhome10]

Yesterday we talked of bits and such. Here is a good article on blinkers
http://www.drf.com/news/blinkers-closer-look-their-impact-racehorses

[turninforhome10]

:ThmbUp: Chalk but nailed Wonder if claimed?
Claimed by Simon Callaghan

[turninforhome10]

A bit more on bits. Another reason for some bits or attachments can be to keep a horse's tongue from getting over the bit or reducing stress on a bad soft palate.
Tongue ties. http://www.thehorse.com/videos/31753/why-do-racehorses-wear-tongue-ties
Seattle Slew Noseband or Sur Win http://fhotd64476.yuku.com/topic/72048#.UsAdbNJDvEo

See this vid at 35:20 for palate info
QsvS6gEBJuE

[turninforhome10]

Yesterday we talked of bits and such. Here is a good article on blinkers
http://www.drf.com/news/blinkers-closer-look-their-impact-racehorses


Here is a real cool clip of how an expert horseman solves a behavior problem with blinkers see video at 2:52.
izadCN3Rp6I

[turninforhome10]

For confirmation info this guy is sharp and to the point
0xCqBjc5plI&list=PL7-opPAoi41HnyFsQZltvpCoMOpa1E26O

[Robert Fischer]

this :2: in the 1st at Gulfstream looks REAL good.

1st time starter, but this is a very tough field. I think I'll stay out and regret it later.

[Robert Fischer]

^ i think it looks like :2: :4: :3: :12:

[Robert Fischer]

^^ 2 ran 3rd. was a little bit green. Lacked just a little bit of courage inside losing a bit of position, and took a few jumps to get going in the lane. Should improve in MSW next out if the field isn't tremendous.

[turninforhome10]

GP Race 2
Scopin out the :7: :8: :10:

AQU Race 3
Eyein the :1: :3: :4:

[turninforhome10]

GP 2
The :8: is either a solidly built horse or maybe a little hefty since last.
Thinking he is straight speed
10 w :8:
Ran 2nd being run down by AE :14:
:7: ran well for 3rd

[turninforhome10]

AQU
Handicapping a little today. Think the :2: can wire at AQU
65 Bankroll
2 wp :2:

:2: Horse had highest Pace Energy and was able to rate against soft fractions.
Liked the 5-1 post odds better than the 3-1 finish odds. Place should pay well
My db had the fav as soft
Return 9
Bankroll 74

[lamboguy]

AQU
Handicapping a little today. Think the :2: can wire at AQU
65 Bankroll
2 wp :2:i am glad you had place too

[turninforhome10]

AQU Race 4
Love the off track pedigree and the looks of the :4:
5wp :4:
http://www.pedigreequery.com/believeinfaith
Worst place to be is 3 lengths of the lead and in side. Watch the numbers of horses on the inside when the mud start hitting them in the face. Watch the replay and see it happen. On an off track a normally good horse will appreciate the advantage of no mud either being inside on the lead, rating outside clear of mud or way back wide.
The winner looked a little rough coming home. Would bet against the entirety of that field next without some class relief. 3yo MCL 25k next time out for these birthday girls.

[turninforhome10]

GP Race4
:7: and :8: look to turfy
Thinking the :1: looks great and draws a better post than previous. Solis has a chance for upset with good trip. Love Midnight Lute here http://www.pedigreequery.com/v+v+goodnight

Lots of large heart inheritances in pedigree.
4ws :1:

[turninforhome10]

Just a theory about muddy tracks- When the horses are in the post parade I prefer to see the horse taking deliberate easy steps in the surface rather than panicked choppy motions indicating horse is irritated by surface.
Just a thought
AQU Race 5
Like the look and chances of the :8: Post is only concern


The :9: had pretty clean blinkers Nice placement by Cornelio
Down 8 from last 2
Bankroll 66
T

[turninforhome10]

GP Race4
:7: and :8: look to turfy
Thinking the :1: looks great and draws a better post than previous. Solis has a chance for upset with good trip. Love Midnight Lute here http://www.pedigreequery.com/v+v+goodnight

Lots of large heart inheritances in pedigree.
4ws :1:

Chad Brown has a runner here. :8: http://www.pedigreequery.com/rubindy
Love the sex balanced crosses of Fappiano and Nijinsky II. Nerud and Windfields.

[Racetrack Playa]

fairgrounds race 2
:4:
looking good a handsome G. from Tx

[turninforhome10]

GP Race 5
Key off a Pick 3 with a single
:3:
:1: :2: :3: :6:
:4: :6: :8:
12 dollars

Out on a 3-5 beaten 3rd.
44 bankroll.

[turninforhome10]

fairgrounds race 2
:4:
looking good a handsome G. from Tx
5.20 to show was good money for the two co faves on top.
:ThmbUp:

[SansuiSC]

GP Race 5
Key off a Pick 3 with a single
:3:
:1: :2: :3: :6:
:4: :6: :8:
12 dollars
keying a 35-40/1 shot in the :3: ....go for it, hope you back up with a win bet.

[turninforhome10]

Aqu Race 6
:11: swoops outside late to win by 1
2wp :11:

Getting sloppy both with track an handicapping. Deep breath.
Bankroll 40

[Racetrack Playa]

Big A Race :ThmbUp:6
:7:looks real live to me

[turninforhome10]

keying a 35-40/1 shot in the :3: ....go for it, hope you back up with a win bet.
That is what I mean by sloppy, Was looking at the :6: @3-5 and watching too many tracks and thinking about working the graveyard shift tonight :ThmbDown:
Will get back on track.

[turninforhome10]

FG Race 3
:1: wires the field
2ws :1:

Bankroll 36
No shot

[SansuiSC]

That is what I mean by sloppy, Was looking at the :6: @3-5 and watching too many tracks and thinking about working the graveyard shift tonight :ThmbDown:
Will get back on track.
No biggie, it happens to all of us one time or another.
Hey I even threw a buck on the horse, thought maybe you saw something.
Odds never scare me.
GL :)

[turninforhome10]

GP Race 6
This is going to be a fast run affair and feel the :6: will benefit with trip.
The :2: and :7: look really sharp.

Looks win over trip predictions
3 of the 4 for the super
Should have declared a bet ;)
:2: :7: exacta 126
Nice picking Playa

[Racetrack Playa]

I too Like The
:7::2:/

/

[turninforhome10]

AQU Race 7
Really need a patented CC Lopez ride on the :4:
2wp :4:

30 cent return
Bankroll 36

[Robert Fischer]

Tampa 7

the :9: is the hot local horse, stalks today.

[Racetrack Playa]

GP Race 6
This is going to be a fast run affair and feel the :6: will benefit with trip.
The :2: and :7: look really sharp.
Nice Call On That Race

[turninforhome10]

Nice Call On That Race
Thanks
You also.

[Racetrack Playa]

off turf Race 4
:4: 22-1 HooKah LaDy oh my :faint:
L. Goncalves/J.Baker
Mixing

up with
:7::6:And I can"t Forget Rosie
:3:

[turninforhome10]

The 1st at SA has one of my favorite trainer angles.
:5: has pedigree and love the 3/4 blowout
:5: \ :2: :7: :8: 3 dollars

The :2: and :8: look sharp but the :5: is carrying perfect flesh. Not sure what to make of the body clip other than it is that time of year for horses to get wolly. SA though.

[Racetrack Playa]

off turf Race 4
:4: 22-1 HooKah LaDy oh my :faint:
L. Goncalves/J.Baker
Mixing

up with
:7::6:And I can"t Forget Rosie
:3:
Good luck Turninforhome. I must call it a day. Peace.
I hope the Jock is OK ,

[Robert Fischer]

EDIT -now they scratched the co-favorite and he's bet down by default. There goes the prices and the question mark.



Gulfstream 7 :4: looks tremendous in the parade and on form.

The only thing that bothers me this one is that I don't know why he isn't getting bet down enough on the board.

[turninforhome10]

GP Race 7 late runner on the :6: 2wp

Gotta sit on hands
29 bankroll

[Robert Fischer]

GP Race 7 late runner on the :6: 2wp

I put the 5 from that race " Ray's Back " on my watch list.

That horse was bet down close to the 4 before post time and then they had a vet scratch.

[turninforhome10]

FG race 5
Cheap race but pace advantage to :4: :9:
Like the :5: for a longshot
no wager

[turninforhome10]

SA Race 2
Just on looks
2wp :1:
Bankroll officially in half :bang:
Chill and find two or 3 more wagers to finish the day.

[turninforhome10]

FG Race 6
Cant resist a flyer on the :8:
2wp :8:

Just by a whisker . Ran gamely and made 80 cent
That will be a key maiden race. The :8: is runner and no Mr Prospector
http://www.pedigreequery.com/thieves+guild

[turninforhome10]

SA Race 3
Like the race pattern for the :2:
2wp :2:
No chance with that trip.
Bankroll 20

[turninforhome10]

FG Race 7
Half the remaining bankroll on the very nice looking that comes into the race ready to rumble off the shelf. Richard owes me.
5wp :7:

Horse was a game as they come but came up short
10 left and gotta shuffle off to bed for nightshift.
All in on Canani at Sa race 4
10w :2:
Hope you enjoyed reading and had a lot of fun .

[turninforhome10]

FG Race 7
Half the remaining bankroll on the very nice looking that comes into the race ready to rumble off the shelf. Richard owes me.
5wp :7:

Horse was a game as they come but came up short
10 left and gotta shuffle off to bed for nightshift.
All in on Canani at Sa race 4
10w :2:
Hope you enjoyed reading and had a lot of fun .

I do like everything about the :4: Gulsary in the stakes later at SA
http://www.pedigreequery.com/gulsary
looks to put it all together and love Stevens here.

[turninforhome10]

Last race of 2013 at the Big A
Race 9
:2: looks dull and don't like the walk
:5: and :10: look very sharp
:10: has bad post for 2 turns
Leaves the :5:
50 bankroll deposit
5wp :5:

:5: Ran huge even with tail swishing. 10 wagered 52.50 return. One shot bankroll doubler. :jump: And will be wary with that horse going forward.
Hopefully an omen going forward at the Big A for 2014. I hit the first and last races at the Big A this year.

[turninforhome10]

No thoughts on looks here.
Big overlay in Race 6 FG Running late to window
2ws :8:

[turninforhome10]

No thoughts on looks here.
Big overlay in Race 6 FG Running late to window
2ws :8:
Sucker Money The outside post with early speed on two turn races takes a pretty nice animal. This was not the call here. IMHO, when a jock takes a front runner to the outside going into the first turn, the results are most often a horse hung wide the whole race with little or nothing left in the tank after 1/4 pole. A horse needs to be more tactical to win from the outside or much classier and faster to clear over and take inside.

Race 7 FG
Futurity here. State bred is key.
:4: Looks a million and figures to get pace setup
5wp :4:

[turninforhome10]

Results FG 7
The :4: ran as game as he looked in the post.
Return 28.50
Bankroll 127.00
Nice day for three bets. Working nights so will tune in tomorrow

FG Race 8
The lookers here are the :9: and for sure the :12:
4 wp :12:
2wp :9:

[turninforhome10]

Results FG 7
The :4: ran as game as he looked in the post.
Return 28.50
Bankroll 127.00
Nice day for three bets. Working nights so will tune in tomorrow

FG Race 8
The lookers here are the :9: and for sure the :12:
4 wp :12:
2wp :9:


To be fair and set a good example, I took the 50 deposited and withdrew 100 due to the fact I used the 50 to get back my original 50.
Bankroll 27. Let's see if we can double that and maybe higher. Will start at the 1st at AQU.
2nd race at AQU is an extra with an Araya double with two decent jocks. Worth looking at?

[turninforhome10]

Like the looks of the Araya horses
1ws :1: :8:

Ok back to cappin after that. Can't bet MW last race against these type. Princess Mara looked good
Bankroll 23
Tampa Race 2
2wp :5:

[turninforhome10]

Down to 19 on the bankroll.
Trying the :7: at GP race 3 to be close to the pace and use the bug weight to get home.
2wp :7:
Don't like the strong gallop that Bravo is putting on the :8:

Called the :8: right nowhere. The :7: set wide and had nothing for stretch
Down to 15
Miracles?

[turninforhome10]

Longshot special?
Race1 FG
If the :2: can put a whole race together, even though Bama bred, will try 2ws :2: Can come late
Like the :5: to take it to em early causing pace to collapse.
:9: is getting play and like blow out work
Avoiding fav
2 wp :9:

Ouch
Down to 9 bones Knew the fav was bad and the :2: ran like a Bama bred.

[turninforhome10]

It's New Years Day shooting bad. Time for an attitude adjustment and a bit of time to recalculate for off tracks.
Attitude adjustment http://www.stonebrew.com/arrogantbastard/
If the shoe fits. Any craft beer nerds reading? Would love to hear your fav.
Will be ready for to get back in the saddle in a moment

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GP Race 6
Looks like a wire job on my pace charts
If not the :7: then the :2: at a price
Just considering pace to get a line on GP turf (db tuning for New Year)

Had the :7: right at a nice 6-1 did not wire as the :5: was game to the 1/16th. The :2: pace line was the race from MNR which should be adjusted for class. Getting closer to having the db just right

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AQU Race 7
The :4: looks to benefit from the pace and pocket

Posted to late for anyone to benefit but happy with my pace projection. %PCTE
is Brohamer Pace distribution number and how a horse divides it energy throughout a race. I love this number when it is dialed in at AQU inner.
See here http://www.brisnet.com/library/software/allnews/favoriteArticles/Final%20Brohamer%20Series%20Part%203%20Percent%20E arly.pdf

:4: 10.60 5.90
Almost ready to bet.

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Mahmoud large heart broodmare line alert
Race 7 Gp
:6: Royale Sky
Love Alydar and go back to the last dam for Mahmoud
http://www.pedigreequery.com/royale+sky

2wp :6:
5 dollars left

Ok important point made here. IMHO the :6: flipped his soft palete. That stopping was 2 fast for it to be mechanical. That was a palete stop.
If it was a shin stop, it would look like a pogo sick with the jock grabbing the reins.
The trainer has decision here. Surgery or tongue tie or examine possibility the horse is getting tongue over the bit. See the post earlier in this thread regarding Soft palete issues.

[turninforhome10]

GP Race 8
Vodoo Dancer Stakes ( Nice Horse http://www.pedigreequery.com/voodoo+dancer2 )

:1: No Shot Needs N2x
:2: Needs Pace help and excellent trip
:3: Has only run against 3yo
:4: Needed to win last IMHO
:5: Has been doing well against lesser elders and could like the post and pace
:7: Over the top
:8: Big pedigree http://www.pedigreequery.com/tokyo+time Prime
:10: Would prefer Castellano but Paco could fill a ticket

Contenders
:5: :7: :8:
Figures to run or third or last :10:

[turninforhome10]

GP Race 8
Vodoo Dancer Stakes ( Nice Horse http://www.pedigreequery.com/voodoo+dancer2 )

:1: No Shot Needs N2x
:2: Needs Pace help and excellent trip
:3: Has only run against 3yo
:4: Needed to win last IMHO
:5: Has been doing well against lesser elders and could like the post and pace
:7: Over the top
:8: Big pedigree http://www.pedigreequery.com/tokyo+time Prime
:10: Would prefer Castellano but Paco could fill a ticket

Contenders
:5: :7: :8:
Figures to run or third or last :10:

I am sorry about the :7: Should read my own writing huh. I tend to play against newly turned 3yo when moving up to other who've faced elders. Will either get burned or pay big. Had a true 100.00 horse that I helped train that won easily when face Stakes 2yo coming 3 and he was the only 4 yo that had run against older stakes horses.
Had to give the public a big bow here
Rosario switching should have dropped the :10: and Javier is gonna be first call for Shug without Johnny V. Gotta respect loyalty.
:5: ran huge for 2nd 9.20 to place. No wager to credit though.

[turninforhome10]

GP Derby
Road to Triple Crown starts here. Lets gets an idea of things to come.
I really love the pedigree and the last race of the :2: http://www.pedigreequery.com/gone+as+wind
The lack of tote support is not helping my liking though and 4 bandages and blinkers is turn off Cheap Turf
The :6: ran his race last time
The :4: is an also for Pletcher
That leaves the :9: and with blood like this the horse figure to be good
http://www.pedigreequery.com/general+a+rod
Last 5 to win on the :9:

I am alive to further punish myself. Hell of ride by Joel, saves everything for the last 1/16th.
Return and new bankroll 23.75
Phew
Chill and get into SA mode.

[turninforhome10]

SA Race5
:5: is a wildcard and looks like a sale horse.
Willing to take a chance that this a good sale
2wp :5:

I like Jose Corrales at LRl. Not his sale horse at SA
Look at the last 3 at distance for :1: and the %PCTE Figured.
Brohamer at SA. Yes

[turninforhome10]

GG Race 5
Only had one gray as dappled as the :2:
Looks good
2wp :2:
Looked good ran bad
Class Relief
More on Dappling
http://animals.pawnation.com/causes-dappling-horses-coats-3471.html

[turninforhome10]

And when you see horse with a bit of a chaf on the mid part of the front part of the shoulder
This might help
http://animals.pawnation.com/reasons-putting-blankets-horses-2805.html

[turninforhome10]

Live by the longshot die by the longshot
Valdivia wires with the :3:
2wp

A little off still on the pace line
17.60 going into next play day.
G Night

[turninforhome10]

Have made a tipsheet. Pure Black Box.
The methods
Start- A method to start with eliminating non contenders. Higher number the better.
Stats- A method using horses lifetime and track stats. Higher is better
Best- A pace prediction model using velocities and Brohamer energy. Higher is better
CXOPV- Off pace method indicating horses ability stay with pace. Higher is better
POS2- Horses positions throughout in past races. Higher is better
Speed-Using speed factors for various races. Higher is better
Class- Using class factors for various races. Higher is better
EXC- Is a new one using exclusion factors. I have been eliminating all horses over 50 unless a big class drop.
To use these sheets I start with highest ranked horse (lowest ranking number) and add 1.00 to find contenders.
All sheets are tuned for ROI on the top pick.


Good luck and good cappin

[turninforhome10]

Same for Gulfstream

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Same for Fairgrounds

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Will tally up picks tonight and post
Enjoy your day and thanks for reading.

[turninforhome10]

Have made a tipsheet. Pure Black Box.
The methods
Start- A method to start with eliminating non contenders. Higher number the better.
Stats- A method using horses lifetime and track stats. Higher is better
Best- A pace prediction model using velocities and Brohamer energy. Higher is better
CXOPV- Off pace method indicating horses ability stay with pace. Higher is better
POS2- Horses positions throughout in past races. Higher is better
Speed-Using speed factors for various races. Higher is better
Class- Using class factors for various races. Higher is better
EXC- Is a new one using exclusion factors. I have been eliminating all horses over 50 unless a big class drop.
To use these sheets I start with highest ranked horse (lowest ranking number) and add 1.00 to find contenders.
All sheets are tuned for ROI on the top pick.


Good luck and good cappin

Results for 01 04 2014 AQU. 2 winners on top and EXC is working better with better classed horses. Poor showing but with some handicapping of the sheets, saw some possibilities for improvement.

[turninforhome10]

Same for Gulfstream
3 winners on top and EXC did a little better

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Same for Fairgrounds
1 Winner on top and two good exactas.

[turninforhome10]

Today for AQU

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GP Today Sunday

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FG Sun Today

[ldiatone]

:ThmbDown: P.S. Don't Mix Kim Chi with a Chocolate Stout.
:lol: :lol: :lol:

[turninforhome10]

Today for AQU
Results for AQU were good
3 winners 2 exactas , the early double form top picks (dark green)
2 tri's 1 exacta and 1 pick three from top ranked plus 1.0

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GP Today Sunday
Results GP Sunday. The tight ranking between the Rank scores tells me that GP is a tough place to cap right now. Had 3 on top winners and 1 exacta. Was very happy with the top 1.0 in the stake for fillies on the grass.

[turninforhome10]

FG Sun Today
Results FG Sunday
2 winners in top, 1 chalky tri and a decent super with the 1.0 rank score.
Thanks for reading and will post later this week as the weather is not conducive to handicapping a Mon. 60 degrees and has rained hard all AM in Philly. They will most likely cancel as the 4 inches of snow is now gone and everything is a swamp here. With the wind blowing the cold in later it could get real ugly in the I-95 corridor.

[turninforhome10]

17.10 bankroll and 3 days to play.
AQU Race 4
The :5: looks terrible; cold water bandages and looks sour. Big blanket mark tells me he has not done much since last.
Jersey Jet to wire :7: or
:1: or :2: to close off of the :5:

:5: was much best but did not like the tail sticking out afterwards. Will have my blessings for his non 3L.
Claim? :lol:

[turninforhome10]

GP Race 4
15 dollars to win on the :4:
43NA22EXrIY