Peak Oil....remember we are running out

[JustRalph]

Early on in the thread below, the fact that we are running out of oil was the theme. Post 17 provides a list of literature explaining why. :lol:

http://paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=39602

Yet, many years later.........we are booming in the US
http://hotair.com/archives/2013/12/27/2013-the-year-of-the-united-states-biggest-oil-boom-ever/

Shortly the US is going to be independent from other countries when it comes to oil and gas.

Yet our President sits on his hands ignoring the keystone pipeline. He clings to the old agenda of his blathering Eco-base and stands in the way of prosperity. Prosperity finds a way in spite of him and his legion of fools.

States whine about fracking and are being left behind. The energy boom will eventually separate us even more. Being left behind on energy will be another paragraph in the future legacy of Obama. The book gets another chapter every month, day and year. All a sad tale of failed theories and hubristic ignorance.

I spent Christmas traveling around Texas ultimately spending some time in Houston. The city teems with prosperity as does many other cities from Houston to northern Oklahoma.

After having lived in MD for 2.5 years and being in Texas for 18 months now, it's cliche to say it, but it's a night and day existence. I expect Hcap and Mosties to step into the thread with their stats on how poor Texans are. How terrible the schools are and how many people are not receiving healthcare. No excuses for not being prosperous as far as I can tell. Wages are lower, but the cost of living is too.

Btw, I find a lot fewer personality disorders amongst the folks in Texas. It's a southern thing :lol: I heard a phrase today, "Texas style customer service"
They could use some of that in other places I have lived.

Fire away Hcap and the boys.........btw, if you're bored, check out that old thread. There are others on peak oil if my memory serves me :lol:

[Greyfox]

Canada's Prime Minister Stephen Harper said two years ago that "approval of the Keystone Pipeline should be a no-brainer!"
It didn't happen.
Obama still dithers not wanting to offend his "greenies."
Instead, he somehow thinks that wind and solar energy are the way to go, eventhough the current technologies for those sources are inefficient and prohibitively expensive. (Maybe they are some day, but not today.)
In the meanwhile his lack of interest in coal and oil development keeps America slipping behind other nations of the world.
Seems that he has no interest in jobs for America unless it fits his agenda.
Seems that he'd rather see a good deal of America's money go to Venezuela and the Arabs rather than keep it here in North America.

[lamboguy]

what looks pretty stupid is that supposedly Obama don't want a pipe line because of the environment, yet he is working overtime to lower energy cost's so that would mean more use of fuels and much more pollution. it looks like a gallon of gas will be somewhere in the low $2 range soon.

the closeness in the crack spreads only mean a big glut of oil is coming. it probably means that more factory's and other energy consumption industry's are on there way back to our shores along with more pollution.

[highnote]

what looks pretty stupid is that supposedly Obama don't want a pipe line because of the environment, yet he is working overtime to lower energy cost's so that would mean more use of fuels and much more pollution. it looks like a gallon of gas will be somewhere in the low $2 range soon.

Obama and Buffett are friends. No pipeline means crude gets shipped by Buffett railroad cars. Buffett makes more money. U.S. gets higher gas prices.

the closeness in the crack spreads only mean a big glut of oil is coming. it probably means that more factory's and other energy consumption industry's are on there way back to our shores along with more pollution.

The spread is about $12 today. It was as close as $4 in July. If anything the crack spread is moderately wide (or moderately close, depending on how you look at it). It was as wide as $23 last February.

The wide spread helps refiners like HollyFrontier. They price their products based on Brent oil, but buy at WTI prices.

And as far as peak oil... it's more about supply and demand. When demand goes up so do prices. When the price gets high enough alternative sources of energy are found or new technology is invented that uses energy more efficiently. If we were to run out of oil then nuclear power plants would be ubiquitous.

[Robert Goren]

What I find so amazing about the pipeline and the limited government conservatives is that they are in favor of the government forcing land owners to sell their land to the pipeline owners at what the land owners consider well below market prices. You can be for the pipeline if you want, but if you are, don't tell me you are for limited government. Government doesn't get any bigger than when it comes in and takes your land and it is not even for some government use like a road, but so it can give it to a private company.

[hcap]

Peak Oil has not disappeared. Just delayed some.

[badcompany]

Peak Oil has not disappeared. Just delayed some.

Ironically, I'm going to agree with you.

While Fracking and Horizontal Drilling have allowed for increased production, it's very expensive oil.

If the shale oil boom is really the answer to our energy needs, and we're now living in an era of oil abundance, the obvious question becomes: why is oil still $100 a barrel?

How do we really become energy independent? It sure ain't Wind and Solar, it's Nuclear.

[Greyfox]

What I find so amazing about the pipeline and the limited government conservatives is that they are in favor of the government forcing land owners to sell their land to the pipeline owners at what the land owners consider well below market prices.

I seem to have missed where Governments are forcing landowners to sell their lands for this pipeline.
Usually farmers are paid a stipend (monthly, yearly) for a pipeline crossing their land by the oil company.
I tried to look up your claim on the internet without success.
Where are Governments forcing land owners to do this?
Do you have any links to support that?

[hcap]

Ironically, I'm going to agree with you.

While Fracking and Horizontal Drilling have allowed for increased production, it's very expensive oil.

If the shale oil boom is really the answer to our energy needs, and we're now living in an era of oil abundance, the obvious question becomes: why is oil still $100 a barrel?

How do we really become energy independent? It sure ain't Wind and Solar, it's Nuclear.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/williampentland/2013/08/21/could-the-cost-of-solar-power-fall-by-75-by-2020/

The US Energy Department expects the cost of solar power to fall by 75% between 2010 and 2020. By then average costs will have dropped to the $1 per watt for big solar farms, $1.25 for offices and $1.50 for homes, achieving the Holy Grail of grid parity with new coal and gas plants without further need for subsidies.

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9244836/Solar_power_installation_costs_fall_through_the_fl oor

December 16, 2013

You may have noticed lately that more residences and businesses are being equipped with photovoltaic solar roof panels. The reason is relatively simple: the cost to do so has dropped dramatically over the past five years.

The cost of installing photovoltaic solar arrays has dropped to $3 per watt of electricity they produce - about the same as coal-powered plants cost to build - creating a watershed moment in the development of clean energy, experts say. The average price of a solar panel has declined by 60% since the beginning of 2011

[JustRalph]

Nice, the same energy department that gave 13 billion in cash to obama'd buddies like Solyndra :lol:

Here in Texas the pipeline is using leases and some of the pipe is running along the railroad setbacks with a lease from the railroads. 20 min from my house I just watched some pipe for the keystone project get buried. I spoke with a guy working on it. He says the railroads are all in. If Obama keeps fighting them they are going to find a way to get it done without him. :ThmbUp:

[Clocker]

Nice, the same energy department that gave 13 billion in cash to obama'd buddies like Solyndra

And the same government that is subsidizing the installation of solar panels because Obama thinks that coal is evil and is doing everything he can to make energy rates skyrocket.

Yep, solar and wind are becoming viable alternatives as long as the government artificially keeps the cost of carbon based energy sky high.

[Saratoga_Mike]

What I find so amazing about the pipeline and the limited government conservatives is that they are in favor of the government forcing land owners to sell their land to the pipeline owners at what the land owners consider well below market prices. You can be for the pipeline if you want, but if you are, don't tell me you are for limited government. Government doesn't get any bigger than when it comes in and takes your land and it is not even for some government use like a road, but so it can give it to a private company.

Where do you come up with this stuff? Google "Kelo v New London." Who was outraged by that decision?

[Saratoga_Mike]

And the same government that is subsidizing the installation of solar panels because Obama thinks that coal is evil and is doing everything he can to make energy rates skyrocket.

Yep, solar and wind are becoming viable alternatives as long as the government artificially keeps the cost of carbon based energy sky high.

Coal and nat gas prices are down significantly since 2007/8.

[Clocker]

Coal and nat gas prices are down significantly since 2007/8.

That does nothing for electricity costs as power companies have to upgrade plants to cleaner coal or convert to natural gas.

Coal is down because of declining demand due to regulation. Gas is down because of big increases in supply, all efforts of the government to the contrary. Lower natural gas prices are not likely to be sustainable under current policies.

[Saratoga_Mike]

That does nothing for electricity costs as power companies have to upgrade plants to cleaner coal or convert to natural gas.

Coal is down because of declining demand due to regulation. Gas is down because of big increases in supply, all efforts of the government to the contrary. Lower natural gas prices are not likely to be sustainable under current policies.

Lower nat gas prices have pressured coal prices more than regs (substitution effect--takes time in power generation, though), as well as the slowdown in demand from China after the financial crisis. In 2007, there was a robust seaborne market for thermal coal (and met coal, too, of course). If anything slows the growth of nat gas supplies over the next few yrs, I suspect it will be state and local-level regs, not federal - at least that's been the case over the past few yrs.

[TJDave]

For anyone who believes we are not running out of oil I have a bridge in Brooklyn for sale. We may not be running out as fast as earlier predicted but running out just the same. Peak oil was in about 2008 and current world production is dropping at about a 4% annual rate.

[Saratoga_Mike]

For anyone who believes we are not running out of oil I have a bridge in Brooklyn for sale. We may not be running out as fast as earlier predicted but running out just the same. Peak oil was in about 2008 and current world production is dropping at about a 4% annual rate.

Incorrect and incorrect.

[hcap]

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/dec/23/british-petroleum-geologist-peak-oil-break-economy-recession

Despite new discoveries and increasing reliance on unconventional oil and gas, 37 countries are already post-peak, and global oil production is declining at about 4.1% per year, or 3.5 million barrels a day (b/d) per year:

"We need new production equal to a new Saudi Arabia every 3 to 4 years to maintain and grow supply... New discoveries have not matched consumption since 1986. We are drawing down on our reserves, even though reserves are apparently climbing every year. Reserves are growing due to better technology in old fields, raising the amount we can recover – but production is still falling at 4.1% p.a. [per annum]."

"... a sustained decline in global conventional production appears probable before 2030 and there is significant risk of this beginning before 2020... on current evidence the inclusion of tight oil [shale oil] resources appears unlikely to significantly affect this conclusion, partly because the resource base appears relatively modest."

[Saratoga_Mike]

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/dec/23/british-petroleum-geologist-peak-oil-break-economy-recession

Despite new discoveries and increasing reliance on unconventional oil and gas, 37 countries are already post-peak, and global oil production is declining at about 4.1% per year, or 3.5 million barrels a day (b/d) per year:

"We need new production equal to a new Saudi Arabia every 3 to 4 years to maintain and grow supply... New discoveries have not matched consumption since 1986. We are drawing down on our reserves, even though reserves are apparently climbing every year. Reserves are growing due to better technology in old fields, raising the amount we can recover – but production is still falling at 4.1% p.a. [per annum]."

"... a sustained decline in global conventional production appears probable before 2030 and there is significant risk of this beginning before 2020... on current evidence the inclusion of tight oil [shale oil] resources appears unlikely to significantly affect this conclusion, partly because the resource base appears relatively modest."

Production (oil coming out of the ground) is NOT declining at a rate of 4%/yr. If that were the case, oil would be at $150. I'll get you a table from the Dept of Energy.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Here:

http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=53&aid=1&cid=regions&syid=2008&eyid=2012&unit=TBPD

Go to the table, scroll to the bottom - you'll see production is clearly increasing. Anyone that knows anything about the oil mkts knows production has NOT been declining by 4%/yr.

[highnote]

There is a finite supply of oil. Available oil reserves have been in decline since the first well was drilled. Some oil is probably produced in the earth everyday, but intuition tells me we are taking it out of the ground faster than it is being replaced.

New technology may make declining oil reserves irrelevant because we may develop technologies that are ultra efficient.

We have plenty of energy. The challenge is producing it at a reasonable cost and protecting against environmental damage, (e.g., nuclear).

In the big scheme of things there nothing to be worried about because energy takes care of itself. According to Einstein, energy is neither created nor destroyed. It merely changes form. It's all good. :D

[Saratoga_Mike]

There is a finite supply of oil. Available oil reserves have been in decline since the first well was drilled. Some oil is probably produced in the earth everyday, but intuition tells me we are taking it out of the ground faster than it is being replaced.

New technology may make declining oil reserves irrelevant because we may develop technologies that are ultra efficient.

We have plenty of energy. The challenge is producing it at a reasonable cost and protecting against environmental damage, (e.g., nuclear).

In the big scheme of things there nothing to be worried about because energy takes care of itself. According to Einstein, energy is neither created nor destroyed. It merely changes form. It's all good. :D

Good post.

[hcap]

Nice, the same energy department that gave 13 billion in cash to obama'd buddies like SolyndraSol how come when I post some encouraging news about solar energy reported by FORBES from the US energy Dept., the conservatives distrust the US Gov, but yet you are linking to the EIA (The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is a principal agency of the U.S. Federal Statistical System).

However on their website I found this about oil lasting certainly at least another 25 years Why don't they say 75?

http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=38&t=6

"Do we have enough oil worldwide to meet our future needs?"

Yes. As shown in EIA's International Energy Outlook 2013, the global supply of crude oil, other liquid hydrocarbons, and biofuels is expected to be adequate to meet the world's demand for liquid fuels for at least the next 25 years. There is, of course, substantial uncertainty about the levels of future oil supply and demand, and EIA reflects some of this uncertainty by developing low and high oil price cases, in addition to a reference case. The oil resources currently remaining in the Earth's crust, in combination with expected volumes of other liquid fuels, are estimated to be sufficient to meet total demand for liquid fuels in all three price cases of the International Energy Outlook 2013.

Btw, they did author this PDF about peak oil and they do take an optimistic view which is open to debate, but they also believe in peak oil.

http://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analyses/pubs/LongTermOilSupplyPresentation.pdf

Executive Summary (Continued)
-
Using a relatively simple algorithm, peak production years were
estimated. The peak production year estimates ranged from 2021
to 2112 across the 12 scenarios. For example, using the USGS
mean (expected) resource base estimate (3,003 billion barrels) and
an annual production growth rate of 2 percent (similar to the current
rate), the estimated peak production year is 2037.
-
EIA’s estimates for production peaks occur later than those
generated by other analysts, some of whom predicted the
production peak will occur as early as 2004.

EIA’s analysis indicates instead that world conventional oil production may
increase two decades or more before it begins to decline.
.................................................. .............

As I mentioned earlier "Peak Oil has not disappeared. Just delayed some."

[Saratoga_Mike]

Sol how come when I post some encouraging news about solar energy reported by FORBES from the US energy Dept., the conservatives distrust the US Gov, but yet you are linking to the EIA (The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is a principal agency of the U.S. Federal Statistical System).
.[/I][/B]
.................................................. .............

As I mentioned earlier "Peak Oil has not disappeared. Just delayed some."

Because in this case, the govt agency's data is consistent with every major private data source available. Moreover, it's historical data, not govt projections. To say, production has been declining at a rate of 4%/yr is like saying the sky is orange.

As an aside, I don't think Solyndra received $13 billion (I think the amount was smaller), but I could be mistaken.

[JustRalph]

yep, let's change the entire energy system because of 'intuition"

[hcap]

There is a finite supply of oil. Available oil reserves have been in decline since the first well was drilled. Some oil is probably produced in the earth everyday, but intuition tells me we are taking it out of the ground faster than it is being replaced.**1

New technology may make declining oil reserves irrelevant because we may develop technologies that are ultra efficient **2.

We have plenty of energy. The challenge is producing it at a reasonable cost and protecting against environmental damage, (e.g., nuclear).**3

In the big scheme of things there nothing to be worried about because energy takes care of itself. According to Einstein, energy is neither created nor destroyed. It merely changes form. It's all good. **4 :D

**1 No that is way too simplistic. We used to chip away at small pieces of the vast reserves that were easy pickings and extremely cheap to collect. So the apparent available reserves appeared to grow and expand much faster than the absolute amounts that were actually available. Early on it seemed limitless.

**2 I doubt irrelevant New tech will be a series of last stands to extract it as cheaply as possible, but that will be a losing battle.

**3 Absolutely agree. But sustainables are already closing in on price per watt. Another 10 ort 15 years and they will be an important part of the energy mix.

**4 Energy gets used yes, but inefficient use dissipates it into diffuse unusable forms. Energy does not take care of itself. The 2nd law of thermodynamics takes care of most of it. "The entropy of any isolated system not in thermal equilibrium almost always increases". Look and smell the tailpipe of your car. Energy is flushed out it's end

[hcap]

Because in this case, the govt agency's data is consistent with every major private data source available. Moreover, it's historical data, not govt projections. To say, production has been declining at a rate of 4%/yr is like saying the sky is orange.

As an aside, I don't think Solyndra received $13 billion (I think the amount was smaller), but I could be mistaken.Ok, I will drop Dr. Millers' critique and rely on estimates from various sources (including the EIA) that peak oil is a reality. But will it be the self admitted optimistic estimate from the EIA, or the more numerous more negative assessments. In either case it will happen.

I think Miller drew on the other source in addition to the EIA. He used the IEA and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), among others. I have not been able to track that data down.

[Robert Goren]

I seem to have missed where Governments are forcing landowners to sell their lands for this pipeline.
Usually farmers are paid a stipend (monthly, yearly) for a pipeline crossing their land by the oil company.
I tried to look up your claim on the internet without success.
Where are Governments forcing land owners to do this?
Do you have any links to support that? In Nebraska and in Texas. It is called an easement. I suppose you could call it a lease although I wouldn't. There is nothing voluntary about the easements. Pipeline companies (and others) do go to court to get easements all the time from people who don't want the pipe line running across their land. What do you think would happen in cases where the land owner wants no part of the pipeline? This is hot button issue here in Nebraska. A lot of people don't want that pipeline run across there land at any price. There is article almost weekly in the papers here about the pipeline as you know if you did do a search. You also should have gotten plenty on how it works. There is Texas RR commission site that has it all there, but you will do a lot of clicking to other web pages from theirs to find out everything. There are also about a half dozen ads for law firms to represent the land owners.

[delayjf]

Lots of untouched oil up in the ANWR.

[Greyfox]

In Nebraska and in Texas. It is called an easement. I suppose you could call it a lease although I wouldn't. There is nothing voluntary about the easements. .

Throughout history virtually all Governments in most countries have dominion over the lands within them.
When I say "I own my farm" that is true in a practical sense and it can be that way from generation to generation to generation.
But the truth is in a modern society "I own my land at the leisure of the Government."
Virtually all modern Governments around the world, not just the United States, maintain the right to expropriate land for use for the "greater good of society" whatever that may be.
So while a "green minded" land owner might not want to have a pipeline go through his land, he or she does not really have the final say on the matter.
In North America when land is expropriated fair compensation is usually given. If not, court procedures are in place to determine what that fair compensation should be.
In contrast, China just moves in and kicks out villagers who have lived on their lands for centuries and no compensation is given.
That is just the way it is.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Ok, I will drop Dr. Millers' critique and rely on estimates from various sources (including the EIA) that peak oil is a reality. But will it be the self admitted optimistic estimate from the EIA, or the more numerous more negative assessments. In either case it will happen.

I think Miller drew on the other source in addition to the EIA. He used the IEA and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), among others. I have not been able to track that data down.

I don't think I've commented on "peak oil." I've stated that oil production has not and is not declining at a rate of 4% per annum. Unlike you, I don't approach everything through an ideological prism. I stated a fact. From that, it would be difficult, if not impossible, for you to discern my position on "peak oil." In any case, solar and wind are much closer to standalone economic viability than some have intimated in this thread.

[hcap]

I don't think I've commented on "peak oil." I've stated that oil production has not and is not declining at a rate of 4% per annum. Unlike you, I don't approach everything through an ideological prism. I stated a fact. From that, it would be difficult, if not impossible, for you to discern my position on "peak oil." In any case, solar and wind are much closer to standalone economic viability than some have intimated in this thread.Acknowledging Peak Oil is not an "ideological Prism". If anything it brings home the reality of the necessity to find substitutes for petroleum.

I have already told you I have dropped the BP guy from consideration, and perhaps you should start considering that oil ain't gonna last forever. And it will definitely get more expensive as it does start declining. According to the EIA, in 20 or so years. Optimistically speaking of course. And sustainables will change our outlook as they become comparable.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Acknowledging Peak Oil is not an "ideological Prism". If anything it brings home the reality of the necessity to find substitutes for petroleum.

I have already told you I have dropped the BP guy from consideration, and perhaps you should start considering that oil ain't gonna last forever. And it will definitely get more expensive as it does start declining. According to the EIA, in 20 or so years. Optimistically speaking of course. And sustainables will change our outlook as they become comparable.

Where did on opine on peak oil in this thread? I can't help it if you can't differentiate between current PRODUCTION and reserves. I've only commented on production.

[Robert Goren]

Throughout history virtually all Governments in most countries have dominion over the lands within them.
When I say "I own my farm" that is true in a practical sense and it can be that way from generation to generation to generation.
But the truth is in a modern society "I own my land at the leisure of the Government."
Virtually all modern Governments around the world, not just the United States, maintain the right to expropriate land for use for the "greater good of society" whatever that may be.
So while a "green minded" land owner might not want to have a pipeline go through his land, he or she does not really have the final say on the matter.
In North America when land is expropriated fair compensation is usually given. If not, court procedures are in place to determine what that fair compensation should be.
In contrast, China just moves in and kicks out villagers who have lived on their lands for centuries and no compensation is given.
That is just the way it is.It maybe it is, but don't tell me it isn't big government.

[hcap]

Where did on opine on peak oil in this thread? I can't help it if you can't differentiate between current PRODUCTION and reserves. I've only commented on production.You should "opine". it is pertinent to JR's assertions in post 1. Of course that is up to you. You could always pull a "TOM" and bury your head in the ground. :lol:

Early on in th thread below, the fact that we are running out of oil was the theme. Post 17 provides a list of literature explaining why.

..Yet, many years later.........we are booming in the US

[Saratoga_Mike]

It maybe it is, but don't tell me it isn't big government.

I agree - odd to see you taking a conservative stance.

[Saratoga_Mike]

You should "opine". it is pertinent to JR's assertions in post 1. Of course that is up to you. You could always pull a "TOM" and bury your head in the ground. :lol:

I don't have a strong opinion on "peak oil." As highnote stated, there's a finite amount of oil. I don't dispute that. I think it's great that solar and wind are becoming economically viable on a standalone basis. What more should I say? You're an expert on oil? That clearly isn't the case.

[Greyfox]

It maybe it is, but don't tell me it isn't big government.

Robert it's more or less a universal principle and has nothing to do with "big" or "small" government.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Robert it's more or less a universal principle and has nothing to do with "big" or "small" government.

It absolutely has to do with the sanctity of private property rights, and those rights are much more apt to be respected by conservatives than "big govt" liberals.

[Greyfox]

It absolutely has to do with the sanctity of private property rights, and those rights are much more apt to be respected by conservatives than "big govt" liberals.

Private property rights are at the leisure of the Government.
That is more or less a "given" in any land you may travel around the world.
It has nothing to do with being a liberal or a conservative.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Private property rights are at the leisure of the Government.
That is more or less a "given" in any land you may travel around the world.
It has nothing to do with being a liberal or a conservative.

I don't view private property rights as absolute. There are certainly cases where eminent domain is justified.

What groups were outraged by the Kelo v. New London case? What groups supported the decision? Now describe the politics of both groups.

[Greyfox]

I don't view private property rights as absolute. There are certainly cases where eminent domain is justified.

What groups were outraged by the Kelo v. New London case? What groups supported the decision? Now describe the politics of both groups.

If I agreed with you, I'd have to say "one swallow makes a summer."
Obviously different "isms" will have varying views on the sanctity of your perceived property rights to a point.
But the bottom line is still the same.
Your land rights are not enshrined in the Constitution - and what you believe is your land is strictly at the leisure of the Government - no matter which party is in power, or wherever you live in the world.
That has nothing to do with big Government or small Government and that is all I was trying to tell Robert when he complained that some land owners plots were being taken.

[Saratoga_Mike]

If I agreed with you, I'd have to say "one swallow makes a summer."
Obviously different "isms" will have varying views on the sanctity of your perceived property rights to a point.
But the bottom line is still the same.
Your land rights are not enshrined in the Constitution - and what you believe is your land is strictly at the leisure of the Government - no matter which party is in power, or wherever you live in the world.
That has nothing to do with big Government or small Government and that is all I was trying to tell Robert when he complained that some land owners plots were being taken.

See the 5th and 14th Amendments

[hcap]

I don't have a strong opinion on "peak oil." As highnote stated, there's a finite amount of oil. I don't dispute that. I think it's great that solar and wind are becoming economically viable on a standalone basis. What more should I say? You're an expert on oil? That clearly isn't the case.No one here is an expert, except one fellow who works in the industry, and I cannot recall his name. I follow alternative energy and accept that it must be implemented sooner than later, or the US is gonna be behind others internationally and I do believe that Global Warming is at this point man made. And burning fossil fuels is counterproductive.

I know however that that is not a popular view on PA off topic. :cool:

[Clocker]

I don't view private property rights as absolute. There are certainly cases where eminent domain is justified.



The principle is clear. The devil is in the details.

No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the Militia, when in actual service in time of War or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offence to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.

Some of us have a stronger belief in the principle than others of us.

[Greyfox]

See the 5th and 14th Amendments

Look at them all you want.
The Government still have the constitutional right to take your land.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Look at them all you want.
The Government still have the constitutional right to take your land.

That right was significantly expanded with the disgraceful Kelo decision, which expanded the definition of "public good" to basically anything. Prior to that decision, I would not have agreed with your assertion b/c that "right" was much more narrow in scope.

[_______]

Acknowledging Peak Oil is not an "ideological Prism". If anything it brings home the reality of the necessity to find substitutes for petroleum.

I have already told you I have dropped the BP guy from consideration, and perhaps you should start considering that oil ain't gonna last forever. And it will definitely get more expensive as it does start declining. According to the EIA, in 20 or so years. Optimistically speaking of course. And sustainables will change our outlook as they become comparable.

Oil will last forever. We will never run completely out of it anymore than we ran completely out of whale oil in the 19th century.

As you stated, what will happen is that it will get so expensive that other forms of energy will become cost effective in comparison. We'll work our way through a lot of very expensive oil first, though. Extracting oil sands only make economic sense at today's prices. No one does it at $30/barrel.

The transition to sustainables wont be easy or cheap. Sources like wind and solar are going to require an enormous investment in energy storage. The great thing about coal and natural gas plants are they can be turned up and down (or on and off) to match demand. What happens to the grid when the wind suddenly stops? Or gusts? Or clouds pass over the solar array?

I'm not really sure most people have a grip on just how expensive this will be. Nuclear will be a bargain as oil and eventually natural gas prices rise.

[hcap]

http://green.autoblog.com/2013/12/02/university-of-maryland-study-reiterates-peak-oil-threat/

University of Maryland study titled "Economic Vulnerability to Peak Oil

Dec 2nd 2013

Just because gas prices have been steadily declining since March doesn't mean we should all get comfortable with the idea of lower refueling costs and a dependable fuel supply. In fact, a University of Maryland study titled "Economic Vulnerability to Peak Oil" pushes the panic button a bit.

The study, published in Global Environmental Change (GEC), says peak oil production will likely occur before 2030 and has a pretty good chance of taking place before the end of this decade, after which it's theoretically all downhill. And while Peak Oil naysayers point to Canadian tar sands and shale wells as potential oil-production areas, the Maryland study says they will do little to help prevent the potential global economic crisis spurred once oil production hits diminishing returns.

[Greyfox]

Oil will last forever. We will never run completely out of it anymore than we ran completely out of whale oil in the 19th century.

.

Yeah...sure. :rolleyes:

[_______]

Yeah...sure. :rolleyes:

Unless you want to argue that someone will continue to drill for oil at a loss, it's an irrefutable fact.

Oil will eventually become more expensive that the alternatives. At that point, who is going to buy it? What incentive will there be to take that last drop that no one wants to buy?

I used whale oil as a comparison because that was the major source for illumination until it got more expensive than kerosene. If we actually "run out of" oil, it will be the first industrial commodity in human history where that occurred.

[Valuist]

Matt Simmons was the big voice behind peak oil and wrote a book on it. But Simmons died a couple years ago, and might explain why we haven't heard more about peak oil recently

http://www.amazon.com/dp/047173876X

[delayjf]

The study, published in Global Environmental Change (GEC), says peak oil production will likely occur before 2030 and has a pretty good chance of taking place before the end of this decade,

And how can the authors be so sure new reserves won't be found? Have they taken into account the untapped oil reserves that currently exist.

[JustRalph]

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/business/2014/01/01/production-in-ohios-utica-shale-rising-fast.html

The hits just keep coming. Oil & Gas production up in Ohio's Utica Shale field

They are just getting started

[JustRalph]

https://next.ft.com/content/7525f1dc-41d6-11e6-9b66-0712b3873ae1

What? I thought we were running out? OOPS!

[JustRalph]

Try this one if the above doesn't work

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-reserves-idUSKCN0ZK1TS

[Parkview_Pirate]

Odd - the calculated reserves range from 264 billion to a low of 40 billion for the U.S.

http://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/london/us-holds-more-oil-reserves-than-saudi-arabia-26484690

The only estimates worse than oil reserves are BREXIT vote polls....

[boxcar]

https://next.ft.com/content/7525f1dc-41d6-11e6-9b66-0712b3873ae1

What? I thought we were running out? OOPS!

Cool, man! :cool: Now I can go out and by a mint, vintage, gas-guzzlin' Corvette I've been lustin' after fer a spell with a clear conscience! :jump:

[Marshall Bennett]

My belief is that severe inflation and other economic conditions will curb the demand for oil more than supply ever will. If people are broke and desperate, how important is the cost of oil? Either you're of the few that can afford it regardless the price, or the majority that suffer in a much broader picture.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Based on what I learned in school, the notion that oil regenerated would be nonsense.

But haven't we been told that we were running out of oil since the 1960s? Aren't we increasing our oil usage exponentially? Isn't it true that wells that used up al the oil found additional oil on the site?

Lets examine some counter-intuitive evidence that is rather strong that I suggest some rather influential reading that makes one think that abiotic oil is very real.

http://viewzone.com/abioticoilx.html

Excerpt:

"Proponents of so-called "abiotic oil" claim that the proof is found in the fact that many capped wells, which were formerly dry of oil, are found to be plentiful again after many years, They claim that the replenished oil is manufactured by natural forces in the Earth's mantle.

Critics of the abiotic theory disagree. They claim that capped wells may appear to refill after a few years, but they are not regenerating. It is simply an effect of oil slowly migrating through pore spaces from areas of high pressure to the low-pressure area of the drill hole. If this oil is drawn out, it will take even longer for the hole to refill again. They hold that oil is a non-renewable resource generated and deposited under special biological and geological conditions.

Until now these believers in "abiotic oil" have been dismissed as professing "bad science" but -- alas -- a new study has proven them correct!

Reported in ScienceDaily, researchers at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) in Stockholm have managed to prove that fossils from animals and plants are not necessary for crude oil and natural gas to be generated. The findings are revolutionary since this means, on the one hand, that it will be much easier to find these sources of energy and, on the other hand, that they can be found all over the globe."


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin

Excerpt:

"The abiogenic hypothesis regained support in 2009 when researchers at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) in Stockholm reported they believed they had proven that fossils from animals and plants are not necessary for crude oil and natural gas to be generated.[6][7]"

[JustRalph]

LOOK WHAT WE/THEY FOUND!

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Apache-discovers-3-billion-barrels-of-oil-in-West-9208240.php?t=4240797095438d9cbb&cmpid=email-premium

And it's already in Texas.....no need to pipe it down from Canada

[highnote]

i read where 3 billion barrels is enough for a year supply. It makes me wonder where the oil for the 100 years is going to come from.

[barahona44]

i read where 3 billion barrels is enough for a year supply. It makes me wonder where the oil for the 100 years is going to come from.
That 3 billion is equal to oil the USA extracts in our country.Total use is about 7 billion barrels annually of petroleum products which also includes biofuels, ethanol and liquified natural gas.
In 2015,we imported 24% of our petroleum from foreign countries,but that was the lowest % since 1970.

[highnote]

That 3 billion is equal to oil the USA extracts in our country.Total use is about 7 billion barrels annually of petroleum products which also includes biofuels, ethanol and liquified natural gas.
In 2015,we imported 24% of our petroleum from foreign countries,but that was the lowest % since 1970.

So that is about 6 months worth?

[chadk66]

don't worry your pretty little minds. we're not going to run out of oil in any of our lifetimes, nor our kids lifetimes. and we have so much oil in this country that we couldn't extract it all in two lifetimes. and we keep finding more. In ND alone we have somewhere around 30 billion barrels. But ten years ago only 3 billion were considered extractible. But today over ten billion is already extractible due to technological advances. The technology advances so fast in the oil and gas industry you might as well not even try to keep up. the USGS runs so damn far behind that it's laughable. So using any of their numbers would be useless. As someone whom works in the oil and gas business I can tell you with absolute certainty you all have nothing to worry about in regards to running out of oil in the next 100 years if ever.

[JustRalph]

You start adding up the oil found in the last ten years with natural gas, and you got about 20 yrs worth covered by just what's in the US.

Toss in the Middle East and you can go out to about a minimum of fifty years.

That doesn't count new finds along the way. But that means trusting the way they calculate it. Who knows?

[chadk66]

trust me, it's the last thing we need to worry about. I'm currently looking after a new four well pad. Those two wells alone are selling about 5 million cubic feet of gas a day and flaring 3.5 million cubic feet per day of gas. An average furnace consumes 7.6 cubic feet per hour of run time. On a very cold day here in ND my furnace probably runs a total of eight hours a day. So roughly 50 cubic feet per day. So that four hole pad is flaring enough gas per day to heat 70,000 homes on a cold winter day. The amount of gas a well gives up will diminish rather quickly. Most of my older wells are only producing about 300,000 cubic feet a day, everyday. And probably will for many years. Just the amount of natural gas we have is beyond comprehension.

[highnote]

The one thing you can be sure of is that efficiency will increase. Cars can get 50 mpg today. In the 60s they probably got 20mpg. More efficient homes use less oil. Etc etc etc.

I get that 3 billion barrels sounds like a lot, but the fact that it is only 6 months of US consumption is the mind boggling part.

[highnote]

trust me, it's the last thing we need to worry about. I'm currently looking after a new four well pad. Those two wells alone are selling about 5 million cubic feet of gas a day and flaring 3.5 million cubic feet per day of gas. An average furnace consumes 7.6 cubic feet per hour of run time. On a very cold day here in ND my furnace probably runs a total of eight hours a day. So roughly 50 cubic feet per day. So that four hole pad is flaring enough gas per day to heat 70,000 homes on a cold winter day. The amount of gas a well gives up will diminish rather quickly. Most of my older wells are only producing about 300,000 cubic feet a day, everyday. And probably will for many years. Just the amount of natural gas we have is beyond comprehension.

I use heating oil for my house. The natural gas line in my neighborhood stops three houses down the street from me. The gas company wants $10,000 to run it to my house. :bang:

[chadk66]

I use heating oil for my house. The natural gas line in my neighborhood stops three houses down the street from me. The gas company wants $10,000 to run it to my house. :bang:will they allow you to place a propane tank?

[highnote]

will they allow you to place a propane tank?

Probably. Pretty sure there are others in the neighborhood with propane tanks.

The problem is that there has been talk for a few years about the gas company extending the line up the street to the middle school. The middle school uses heating oil, like most buildings in town, and the thinking is that it will be cost effective to switch to natural gas. So I have never wanted to put in a propane tank if the gas line is laid on the rest of our street.

[chadk66]

Probably. Pretty sure there are others in the neighborhood with propane tanks.

The problem is that there has been talk for a few years about the gas company extending the line up the street to the middle school. The middle school uses heating oil, like most buildings in town, and the thinking is that it will be cost effective to switch to natural gas. So I have never wanted to put in a propane tank if the gas line is laid on the rest of our street.why not. takes an hour to install the tank and an hour to remove it. you can usually get free tank rent, or very cheap from gas companies. I would also think that the gas company would be begging to run that gas line to the school and hook up anybody along the way and do it all for free. I've never been charged or know of anybody that's been charged for gas line install around here.

[barahona44]

why not. takes an hour to install the tank and an hour to remove it. you can usually get free tank rent, or very cheap from gas companies. I would also think that the gas company would be begging to run that gas line to the school and hook up anybody along the way and do it all for free. I've never been charged or know of anybody that's been charged for gas line install around here.
For the low, low price of 3,000 dollars 20 years ago, I was given the chance to connect to the gas line.Then I thought about the itemized bills with all the delivery surcharges, minimal use charges, etc., that doesn't add one BTU to my furnace and decided to stick with ye Olde heating oil where I pay for what I use, no more , no less.

[highnote]

why not. takes an hour to install the tank and an hour to remove it. you can usually get free tank rent, or very cheap from gas companies. I would also think that the gas company would be begging to run that gas line to the school and hook up anybody along the way and do it all for free. I've never been charged or know of anybody that's been charged for gas line install around here.

I would have to buy new appliances since mine use electric.

Will a propane oven, furnace, and air conditioning unit work with natural gas, also?

For the low, low price of 3,000 dollars 20 years ago, I was given the chance to connect to the gas line.Then I thought about the itemized bills with all the delivery surcharges, minimal use charges, etc., that doesn't add one BTU to my furnace and decided to stick with ye Olde heating oil where I pay for what I use, no more , no less.

Good point. I forgot about the monthly fees.

It would be nice to get rid of the oil tank in my basement and free up space that equals almost 200 cubic feet.

[chadk66]

I would have to buy new appliances since mine use electric.

Will a propane oven, furnace, and air conditioning unit work with natural gas, also?



Good point. I forgot about the monthly fees.

It would be nice to get rid of the oil tank in my basement and free up space that equals almost 200 cubic feet.why would you have to buy different appliances? keep using electric there. Furnace, oven, etc. can be changed back and forth between propane and NG by just changing orifices in the burners. The air conditioner is electric so it is of no concern. I actually have a dual heat setup. I am on rural electric. So I can get off peak rates. So I have an electric water heater (free from my REC), propane forced air furnace, an electric plenum heater in the furnace. Heating off peak allows me to heat via whichever means is cheaper. electric is equivalent to .68 cent propane. Generally if you buy or contract your propane in the summer you can get amazingly low rates. I have a 1000 gal. propane tank and fill it in early summer and contract another load or two at way low prices in the summer.

[highnote]

why would you have to buy different appliances? keep using electric there. Furnace, oven, etc. can be changed back and forth between propane and NG by just changing orifices in the burners. The air conditioner is electric so it is of no concern. I actually have a dual heat setup. I am on rural electric. So I can get off peak rates. So I have an electric water heater (free from my REC), propane forced air furnace, an electric plenum heater in the furnace. Heating off peak allows me to heat via whichever means is cheaper. electric is equivalent to .68 cent propane. Generally if you buy or contract your propane in the summer you can get amazingly low rates. I have a 1000 gal. propane tank and fill it in early summer and contract another load or two at way low prices in the summer.

I don't know anything about the difference in appliances that run on NG or propane.

It sounds like you have a good setup.

When I said appliances I meant oven and stove only. My wife would love to have a gas oven and stove.

Our washer/dryer/dishwasher are electric. We wouldn't change those.

Our boiler runs on heating oil. It heats the hot water and radiators. I have to admit, the radiators are nice in the winter. They stay hot a long time.

We use in-window air conditioners.

We'd like to get central air, a furnace, and an oven and stove that run off of NG.

[chadk66]

I don't know anything about the difference in appliances that run on NG or propane.

It sounds like you have a good setup.

When I said appliances I meant oven and stove only. My wife would love to have a gas oven and stove.

Our washer/dryer/dishwasher are electric. We wouldn't change those.

Our boiler runs on heating oil. It heats the hot water and radiators. I have to admit, the radiators are nice in the winter. They stay hot a long time.

We use in-window air conditioners.

We'd like to get central air, a furnace, and an oven and stove that run off of NG.is your basement finished?

[highnote]

is your basement finished?

No.

[chadk66]

No.you'll have no problem running all the duct work for a forced air furnace then. and then you can also run the gas lines to stove and cook top too. run one out to the bbq grill too. when you order your new appliances tell them they need propane kits. you grill will already be set up. won't need a regulator for the grill because you will have a regulator on the propane line coming into the house.

[highnote]

you'll have no problem running all the duct work for a forced air furnace then. and then you can also run the gas lines to stove and cook top too. run one out to the bbq grill too. when you order your new appliances tell them they need propane kits. you grill will already be set up. won't need a regulator for the grill because you will have a regulator on the propane line coming into the house.

Thank! I will bookmark this page so that I can refer back to it when the time comes. :)

[Actor]

Private property rights are at the leisure of the Government.Correct. I own my house free and clear, supposedly, but twice a year I send the county a check to pay for the privilege of living in it. :ThmbUp: