The Malibu

[TheEdge07]

Buying the Baffert stock

:2: -Cutback
:4:
:8: -Cutback
:9:

Had Heir Of Storm in his last off the cutback dont know if hes good enough to beat this field but hes a important piece on how this race will develop.His last was bias aided.
Bakken 2 races will be overbet alot of speed inside..underlay no thanks..

The big question of opening day...Will the track play fair?

Your input..

[Thebigguy]

Im ending the all stakes pick 3 with 4,7,8,9.
No real strong opinion. Feels wide open.

[GaryG]

:7: CENTRAL BANKER has gotten really good for Stall and should get a great setup

[classhandicapper]

If there are no scratches, it's a great race to watch. I'm less sure about betting.

I'm thinking Distinctive Passion is the speed of the speeds, a little better than he looks on paper, and he may make it tough on anyone that tries to run with him. Getting the 7F will be tough though if he does face pressure or run a very rapid pace to clear the other speeds. He has backed up a few times at 6F.

I think it's do or die for Flashback starting today. He looked like a legitimate Derby contender, he's had a good prep, he'll get plenty of speed to close off etc... If he's going to step up and become a top horse it's got to start today.

I'm not anxious to bet on or against him if winds up being the favorite. There's not enough to love and not enough to hate. Maybe there will be a biased track to help clarify things among a lot of horses that seem to have a shot.

[Clocker]

Buying the Baffert stock

:2: -Cutback
:4:
:8: -Cutback
:9:



From an old school class handicapping view, I am biased against horses that have not proven themselves to be true G1/G2 class in a G1 race. The Baffert horses are the only proven G1/G2 runners in the race. The rest are G3 horses at best.

There is a ton of early speed here, every post from the 9 on out. The 4 horse is the logical presser to take over if the speed burns out on the long back stretch.

[Ocala Mike]

Like the race :5: :7: :8: , but I know one or more of Baffert's will ruin it for me. Maybe I'll just bet the :5: to win, and put him underneath :2: :4: :7: :8: :9: in exactas.

[Thebigguy]

Bakken is terribly overbet at 2-1 right now. WOW.

Even though Flashback has been a money burner I feel he is a much more likely winner. Or the 7,8,9.
I have to bet now. 4/7,8,9 exacta
4,7,8,9 triple box

[PhantomOnTour]

Exacta:
:2: :5: w :2: :4: :5: :7: :8:
:4: w :2: :5:
Win:
:2: :5:

[jballscalls]

I like :12: :7: :5:

Good luck everyone!

[jerry-g]

I think Distintive passion :11: has a good chance if he gets the lead and holds
off Flashback.

[Racetrack Playa]

:12: wirem

[TheEdge07]

Buying the Baffert stock

:2: -Cutback
:4:
:8: -Cutback
:9:

Had Heir Of Storm in his last off the cutback dont know if hes good enough to beat this field but hes a important piece on how this race will develop.His last was bias aided.
Bakken 2 races will be overbet alot of speed inside..underlay no thanks..

The big question of opening day...Will the track play fair?

Your input..

Shazamm

[Robert Fischer]

:7: CENTRAL BANKER has gotten really good for Stall and should get a great setup

nice call on this setup Gary

[Robert Fischer]

Exacta:
:2: :5: w :2: :4: :5: :7: :8:
:4: w :2: :5:
Win:
:2: :5:

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[Tom]

I used him and Flashback in the exacta.
Thank GOD my one day of playing Santa Anita is over for the season! :rolleyes:

[Grits]

Very, very nice work, Phantom!!!:ThmbUp:

[Ocala Mike]

I'm with Tom. Had another splitzacta, running 1st and 3rd. Yes, Phantom!!!

[PhantomOnTour]

Exacta:
:2: :5: w :2: :4: :5: :7: :8:
:4: w :2: :5:
Win:
:2: :5:
Well thanks for the hosannas y'all

That exacta payoff was :faint:

[andtheyreoff]

Here's the race with my call:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCP10AG07IU

[classhandicapper]

I played Shakin it Up in the Sunland Derby because I was convinced the San Vincente was better than it looked on Beyer figures. War Academy ran a big race right out of it and I had a few other reasons to think that. Then when he and Mudflats didn't do much running in the Sunland (though he probably got hurt), I was forced to reconsider. Not that I would have played him in this spot off the long layoff anyway, but I'm confused again. :confused: :lol:

[TheEdge07]

Sick to my stomach....

If the 7 wins the 8th i hit the pick 4..

It paid 12,000 for a buck with 7/2 Gervino i had the 2/7 in that race the 7 was 16/1 the best horse in the race after ducking in ..Gervino had got pushed wide and came back to nose me out..im sick

[Stillriledup]

Disgusting beat Edger, yikes, that sucks.

[Thebigguy]

Exacta:
:2: :5: w :2: :4: :5: :7: :8:
:4: w :2: :5:
Win:
:2: :5:


Sweet.

[mkkash]

Well thanks for the hosannas y'all

That exacta payoff was :faint:

You could have boxed the last set of numbers in the superfacta at 10
cents and got paid.

The superfacta payoff was....?

M K Kash

"Make A Pocket Full Of Play Dough"

[Robert Fischer]

You could have boxed the last set of numbers in the superfacta at 10
cents and got paid.

The superfacta payoff was....?

M K Kash

"Make A Pocket Full Of Play Dough"
$273.85 for 10 cents

[classhandicapper]

Not surprising that the race came up pretty fast given all the pace and quality in there. 106 Beyer. That's not bad given that these 3yos are still moving forward.

Great job by Phantom coming up with that one and also Clocker who identified the winner as one of his key contenders.

[classhandicapper]

I think Distintive passion :11: has a good chance if he gets the lead and holds
off Flashback.

Distinctiv Passion is going to wire a very good field at a price eventually. That race was loaded with quality speed. He cleared them and had the lead past the 1/8th pole. The 7F was too much for him, but that horse is FAST.

[GaryG]

The place price eased some of the pain, but I did not expect to lose to Shakin it Up.

[jerry-g]

Distinctiv Passion is going to wire a very good field at a price eventually. That race was loaded with quality speed. He cleared them and had the lead past the 1/8th pole. The 7F was too much for him, but that horse is FAST.

Thanks for your input CH. Hindsight is always good now that I see I failed
to consider the fast pace projected. I would have known it was a set-up
for an off the pace type which the winner was. Quirin pts was 8 and he
owned it but not good in this pace scenario. Like you, I liked the way he
got out there and performed, so next out he may be the Lone Early and
win. Will keep a look-out for him. Thanks again!

Also, I should have noticed that the 2 had a 6F work in 1:11.1 which would
have told me the horse was in good condition after the long 9 months L/O.

[cj]

Distinctiv Passion is going to wire a very good field at a price eventually. That race was loaded with quality speed. He cleared them and had the lead past the 1/8th pole. The 7F was too much for him, but that horse is FAST.

I had tweeted early in the day that he would make life miserable on any horse that liked to be on/near the lead (and also that 7f was too far). He is VERY fast.

[Stillriledup]

Distinctiv Passion is going to wire a very good field at a price eventually. That race was loaded with quality speed. He cleared them and had the lead past the 1/8th pole. The 7F was too much for him, but that horse is FAST.

I like the Zee Bros horse who pressed him into that fast internals, that's a horse to watch too i think.

I agree with this, DP is going to shake loose and keep going, i dont think the surface yesterday was too speed favoring out there at the Great Race Place, it wasnt easy to wire the field.

[Clocker]

i dont think the surface yesterday was too speed favoring out there at the Great Race Place, it wasnt easy to wire the field.

The track seemed odd yesterday. The times seem to be in line with a fast track, but it was messy on the horses and riders. David Flores, the jockey on the 2, was covered in grime at the end. He mentioned in the post race interview that toward the end of the race, he was afraid that he was going to run out of goggles.

[classhandicapper]

I like the Zee Bros horse who pressed him into that fast internals, that's a horse to watch too i think.



Yea, that horses was really good earlier in the year and also probably needed this race.

[Stillriledup]

The track seemed odd yesterday. The times seem to be in line with a fast track, but it was messy on the horses and riders. David Flores, the jockey on the 2, was covered in grime at the end. He mentioned in the post race interview that toward the end of the race, he was afraid that he was going to run out of goggles.

You're right there was a ton of kickback and mud yesterday, not sure why, it was 82 and sunny, there shouldnt be that much moisture in the surface.

Jocks sort of knew about the "bias" as if you watched Martin Garcia's ride in Race 1 and Rosario's ride in Race 4, they both rode favorites where they wanted no part of being near the lead...even despite both races seeming to have "slowish" paces visually.

[cj]

The track seemed odd yesterday. The times seem to be in line with a fast track, but it was messy on the horses and riders. David Flores, the jockey on the 2, was covered in grime at the end. He mentioned in the post race interview that toward the end of the race, he was afraid that he was going to run out of goggles.

On the 0-100 "speed friendly" scale I created, yesterday was a big, fat 0.

[Clocker]

Great job by Phantom coming up with that one and also Clocker who identified the winner as one of his key contenders.

Thanks for the nod, but I had the shot lined up and didn't pull the trigger.

There was so much early speed on the outside, from post 9 to 12, the running lines looked like they were written in binary. So I figured it had to be a closer. The 2 and the 4 were strong closers and were the only proven G1/G2 winners in the race. Basic old school Jim Quinn class handicapping: it's a really big jump from G3 to G1/G2.

I guess I just got caught up in the hype that the 4 was Baffert's next Derby horse, and passed on the race because the 4 looked like a lock and the odds were too short. I just forgot about the 2 after I identified it as a major contender because I forgot to ask myself the Big Question: why is this horse in this race.

The 2 was coming back after a long layoff. Baffert wasn't paying nearly $5000 in entry fees just to give the horse a tune-up. And as pointed out here, the horse had a month of killer works. Back to basics. Won't get fooled again. I hope.

[JustRalph]

On the 0-100 "speed friendly" scale I created, yesterday was a big, fat 0.

Have you tweaked it any?

[cj]

Have you tweaked it any?

Yes...the ratings used to bunch between 25-75, so I made it a little more clear to see differences. Been the same for a few months now.

[classhandicapper]

Thanks for the nod, but I had the shot lined up and didn't pull the trigger.

There was so much early speed on the outside, from post 9 to 12, the running lines looked like they were written in binary. So I figured it had to be a closer. The 2 and the 4 were strong closers and were the only proven G1/G2 winners in the race. Basic old school Jim Quinn class handicapping: it's a really big jump from G3 to G1/G2.

I guess I just got caught up in the hype that the 4 was Baffert's next Derby horse, and passed on the race because the 4 looked like a lock and the odds were too short. I just forgot about the 2 after I identified it as a major contender because I forgot to ask myself the Big Question: why is this horse in this race.

The 2 was coming back after a long layoff. Baffert wasn't paying nearly $5000 in entry fees just to give the horse a tune-up. And as pointed out here, the horse had a month of killer works. Back to basics. Won't get fooled again. I hope.


Same with me really. I thought there was a ton of speed in the race and Distinctiv Passion would put them all away and surrender late at 7F. But I made Flashback very likely to fire his "A" race and possibly move forward. At that price the race wasn't playable for me. With a name like "classhandicapper", maybe I should be kicking myself for not giving the 2 more consideration, but the quality of that Grade 2 race he ran well in was ambiguous to me, the other race was on synthetic, and he had disappointed me at Sunland (albeit at a route and then laid off). So he turned more into a horse I was intellectually curious about than one I wanted to play in that spot. Oh well.

[Grits]

Class, how many more days are you gonna beat yourself up over this one race? :lol:
I know you're handicapping something running somewhere today.

[classhandicapper]

Class, how many more days are you gonna beat yourself up over this one race? :lol:
I know you're handicapping something running somewhere today.

It usually only lasts about 20 years, but at my age I'll probably forget the race within 10 years. ;)

[Grits]

It usually only lasts about 20 years, but at my age I'll probably forget the race within 10 years. ;)

Class, I'm forgetting something different. My 12 horse in the 6th was just passed like he was standing still in the stretch by Jacobson's 1A. I'm FORGETTING all races Jacobson's running in. This guy's worth forgetting starting today. I can skip anything he's in.

[MJC922]

I see the lugging in problem isn't getting any better with Flashback. I don't even know what this horse is anymore. Is he a wire-to-wire route horse, is he a route presser? I think he should stretch out, send to the front and then lug into nothingness. I know one thing, he's not a come from fifteen out of it sprinter, and if he is then it won't be working very often running a slant pattern from the six path down to the rail. This habit has cost him MOST of his races now. Is it a bad habit or a bad wheel?

[Investorater]

.....I'd like to propose a toasT to Shakin It Up a 17-1 shot who won the MaliBu.(Flashback and Shakin It Up were on my 2013 KD contenders list).

And to Bob Baffert for exemplary workouts employed leading up to this race...after the colts very long layoff.

May this one remain sound and have a great 2014 ......

[TheEdge07]

pays 8.20 today ..nice set up..very versatile horse

[classhandicapper]

pays 8.20 today ..nice set up..very versatile horse

He had a good setup in the Malibu, but he still ran well that day. The question in my mind was whether he was going to be as effective going long as short because he didn't run that well in the Sunland. It was hard to know how much of that was distance and how much meant he had a problem given that he was given a layoff off that race. If you were convinced the distance wasn't an issue, that was a nice overlay.

[GMB@BP]

He had a good setup in the Malibu, but he still ran well that day. The question in my mind was whether he was going to be as effective going long as short because he didn't run that well in the Sunland. It was hard to know how much of that was distance and how much meant he had a problem given that he was given a layoff off that race. If you were convinced the distance wasn't an issue, that was a nice overlay.

Interesting that Baffert was pretty honest after the race saying he always thought Governor Charlie was the better of the two, and given the layoff maybe still so.

This horse seems like a legit contender for like the Met Mile.