Aqueduct, Thursday Race 1 pick 3 structure

[Thebigguy]

Here is a problem I run into. The 1-3 pick 3 Thursday here was my initial ticket.

2,5,7 with 2,3,5 with 4,5 for $2 for $36 total.

The problem I run into is taking these stands against totally logical horses. The 4 can clearly win the 1st race, but I don't prefer him. Same thing with the 7 in race 2. My handicapping does not matter right now, the question is since I am fairly certain the 4,5 will win the 3rd am I better off just using both "other" horses in race 1 and 2? I would be estentially buying it for $32 assuming I'm right about the 3rd.

[Stillriledup]

So you're fairly certain a race that David Jacobson essentially "controls" he won't win with his 6-5 ML horse?

It might be hard to get enough "pace" in the 3rd race to set up the 5 horse from way back, maybe you want to use the 2 Jacobson's in leg 3 and not the 4 and the 5?

Or, another option you could choose is to scrap the pick 3 and stick to the early DD and raise your base play. The first 2 races look more "wide open" than leg 3. Its hard to beat chalk in early races in NY, the stick all the "horsemens races" in the early part of the card.

[sammy the sage]

Even if you get one of the 2 listed home in the 3rd...odds are w/such short fields...the p/3 is better than 50% chance of paying LESS than what you thinking of betting...WHY bother :confused:

[Thebigguy]

Even if you get one of the 2 listed home in the 3rd...odds are w/such short fields...the p/3 is better than 50% chance of paying LESS than what you thinking of betting...WHY bother :confused:

This isn't necessarily true. If I go the 3-3 ticket I'm leaving off a Jacobson horse in every leg under 5-2ML. And the first off the claim, back to dirt cutback for Rudy has a shot in R1 at 10-1ML.

[andtheyreoff]

It's not worth spending $32 on a pick 3. Here's the early pick 3 payouts over the last three days (for $1):

12/22: $15.80
12/21: $186
12/20: $20.10
12/19: $14
12/18: $59.50

So on three of the last five days, you would've lost money even if you had hit it. And with this sequence, I don't see the pick 3 paying more than $32 for a buck. IMO, if you have to spend that much on a sequence, it's probably not worth playing.

And in case anyone was wondering, here's how I'd play the pick 3:
Race 1- :2: :4: :5:
Race 2- :5: :7:
Race 3- :2:

[Thebigguy]

So you're fairly certain a race that David Jacobson essentially "controls" he won't win with his 6-5 ML horse?

It might be hard to get enough "pace" in the 3rd race to set up the 5 horse from way back, maybe you want to use the 2 Jacobson's in leg 3 and not the 4 and the 5?

Or, another option you could choose is to scrap the pick 3 and stick to the early DD and raise your base play. The first 2 races look more "wide open" than leg 3. Its hard to beat chalk in early races in NY, the stick all the "horsemens races" in the early part of the card.

I usually attack doubles when I either have a solid single or am against a chalk and can play a 2 by 2 for $20 for an $80 investment. A 3-3 double with all logical horses in race 2 feels counter productive.

[sammy the sage]

This isn't necessarily true. If I go the 3-3 ticket I'm leaving off a Jacobson horse in every leg under 5-2ML. And the first off the claim, back to dirt cutback for Rudy has a shot in R1 at 10-1ML.

Well. that's a BOLD move...you know something?

[Stillriledup]

I usually attack doubles when I either have a solid single or am against a chalk and can play a 2 by 2 for $20 for an $80 investment. A 3-3 double with all logical horses in race 2 feels counter productive.

Unless you don't use the logical horses.

Also, why are you specifically betting against Jacobson in these short fields, seems like a losing proposition betting against one of the greatest supertrainers this game has ever seen.

[Thebigguy]

I know that the 3 races in this sequence have perfectly logical horses all at likely overlaid odds due to Jacobson's presence. In the 1st the Terranova horse is faster early and also cutting back. The Rudy claim, cutback, turf to dirt feels live. And when is a Pletcher/Repole firster not live, especially against this soft field. In the 2nd Martins horse is faster then the Jacobson and should put him on the chase. If they go all out one of my other 2 should pick them off late. The 3rd I prefer the "other" Jacobson at 2-3x the price as Candyman E. I am strongly against Candyman E tomorrow.

[Thebigguy]

Unless you don't use the logical horses.

Also, why are you specifically betting against Jacobson in these short fields, seems like a losing proposition betting against one of the greatest supertrainers this game has ever seen.
I'm not looking at pp's with the intention to fire against Jacobson. Its these races specific.

[Mineshaft]

Race 1-7 horses

Race 2-7 horses

Race 3-5 horses



I will pass. Is this Golden Gate with these short fields or what?


Why not play the Pick 5?

[Stillriledup]

I know that the 3 races in this sequence have perfectly logical horses all at likely overlaid odds due to Jacobson's presence. In the 1st the Terranova horse is faster early and also cutting back. The Rudy claim, cutback, turf to dirt feels live. And when is a Pletcher/Repole firster not live, especially against this soft field. In the 2nd Martins horse is faster then the Jacobson and should put him on the chase. If they go all out one of my other 2 should pick them off late. The 3rd I prefer the "other" Jacobson at 2-3x the price as Candyman E. I am strongly against Candyman E tomorrow.

I know personally i feel that right now, RRR, Jacobson and maybe one other trainer are too big of a "Factor" so i'm avoiding any kinds of races like this in my betting. I dont' want to be betting "trainer races" so to me, these races in your sequence are "skips" for the most part.

You have a specific opinion as to why Candyman E is a horse you don't like? He seems nice on paper and is a gamester who knows how to win. It does look like a "3 horse race" and if Candyman E is 3-5, i would agree that he's ok to try and beat, but if he's just one of the 3 contenders and isnt specifically overbet, maybe he's not one to just toss out.

[Tara73]

The way to approach this pick 3 is to leave out the favorite in leg one. CORONATE will be over bet and has no shot. Key WEE FREUDIAN in leg 2 and spread a little in other legs.

[DeltaLover]

I like the topic of this thread and I believe that this type of topics are way more interesting than endlessly discussing theories, and telling stories about the past. I hope we have more similar threads in the future.

As far as the specific question of the OP, I certainly like his stance against Jacobson's runners and can see why he does not like Candyman E in the third leg since (it is because of the type of the runner he beat last time out, who was a typical sucker horse while today he is against better).

What I do not like about his ticket is that it appears to be very top heavy, presenting more a desire of cashing a winner than betting for value. By this I mean that I would prefer to execute his handicapping opinions as follows:

:7:
:3: :5:
:4: :5:

For a total of only 4 combos compared to 18!

The real value in his opinion is really coming from the first race's :7: horse and this is where he needs to focus, leaving the more obvious :2: and :5: from the same race out, taking a chance for a respectable score. Same logic applies pretty match to the second race, where again we cannot afford a three horses spread since the race only consist of seven.

Of course this sequence of races does not seem to offer the best requirements for a pick 3 bet, mainly due to the shortage of the fields and the limited profit potential.

Had the third race had more horses and more betting interest, my betting strategy would have been to go deep in it, in such a way to maintain a chance for a large score if I am correct with the :7: plus giving my self the chance to secure some profit by betting my selections in the second spot of the exacta with some of the higher prices.

If the :7: happened to be in the last leg of the pick 3 even better since in this case I would have been able to bet it in the exactas only for second again securing a profit if I happened to be correct with it.

Unfortunately, the inner track is one of the least player's friendly track in the nation offering very little opportunities for these types of maneuvers...

[DeltaLover]

Talking about this pick3, I also like the :7: in the first as a longshot but also the :6: in the second which seems to have some of the longshot angles I like to bet in the inner.

Again what makes me reluctant to get involved is the very limited field sizes that leave very little room for creativity and flexibility...

[taxicab]

I agree with Delta, the thread topic caught my interest.
Some of the horses in the first 3 are interesting types.
Race 1:
Distorted Dream gets the blinkers back on, Ortiz has to gun him due to the rail draw.
He cost 260k @ auction, is a near 5yo gelding running for a 35 maiden tag.This does not inspire confidence.
The ML on Terranova's horse (7/2) is too high, 5/2 or less seems more likely.
The drop to 35 makes sense on this one, He had a perfect trip in his last and couldn't seal the deal.
Coronate is much better sprinting.
It's his second race with the hood.
The Jacobson drop makes him scary.
Jacobson owns this one to boot.
9-5 post time.
The Pletcher first timer (3-1) is running for almost half his sales price, is a Gelding and is almost a 4yo.
Oghma ( 8-1 ) is the mystery horse.
Adds Lasix, drops, shortens up, and changes surfaces off of good races at 3 different tracks.
Plus I think the owner ( 27% ) is training the horse, not Gullo.
I don't think the Rudy horse has any ability.....but that logic doesn't always hold well with this barn.

Race 2:
Saint Arthur might get claimed....he's "live" for 30.
Verbosity needs a fast surface.....if you spit on the track he won't lift up his feet.
Linda's horse seems fond of minors lately, but beware.....he does like the inner { 3 for 6 }.
The Jacobson sits second behind Arthur early, shortening up a half furlong certainly helps this one.

Race 3:
Jacobson might run 1-2 in here.

[Teach]

I saw the thread before I did my morning walk. I should mention that on this cold, (light) snowy day here in eastern MA, I breezed the mile in 14 minutes.

What concerns me most about playing an early Pick 3 is that I'm not sure how the racetrack is playing. A horse hasn't raced at Aqueduct since Sunday afternoon; that's nearly one-hundred hours ago. There's been freezing, thawing, re-freezing... Well, you get the picture. We really won't get a handle on this until we see the first race run. Often, on cold, hard-surface days, "the inside" is the highway to the winner's circle. Yet...

In Race One, I believe a couple potentially well-bet horses are quite vulnerable; I'm talking about :4: Cornonate (I believe this horse's running style makes him vulnerable in a sprint). I also believe Distorted Dream, who should take some action, is also vulnerable.

If I were playing the Pick 3 (I usually don't, unless I feel it's too good to pass up), I'd play:

Race One: :5: , :2: , :6: , :7:

Race Two: :5: , :7:, :2:

Race Three: :5:, :2: , :4:

I realize that's a hefty, possibly risky expenditure, to try to nail this early Pick 3; yet, I've been burnt so many times by leaving a horse out. I realize you can't bet them all, but...

[DeltaLover]

I saw the thread before I did my morning walk. I should mention that on this cold, (light) snowy day here in eastern MA, I breezed the mile in 14 minutes.

What concerns me most about playing an early Pick 3 is that I'm not sure how the racetrack is playing. A horse hasn't raced at Aqueduct since Sunday afternoon; that's nearly one-hundred hours ago. There's been freezing, thawing, re-freezing... Well, you get the picture. We really won't get a handle on this until we see the first race run. Often, on cold, hard-surface days, "the inside" is the highway to the winner's circle. Yet...

In Race One, I believe a couple potentially well-bet horses are quite vulnerable; I'm talking about :4: Cornonate (I believe this horse's running style makes him vulnerable in a sprint). I also believe Distorted Dream, who should take some action, is also vulnerable.

If I were playing the Pick 3 (I usually don't, unless I feel it's too good to pass up), I'd play:

Race One: :5: , :2: , :6: , :7:

Race Two: :5: , :7:, :2:

Race Three: :5:, :2: , :4:

I realize that's a hefty, possibly risky expenditure, to try to nail this early Pick 3; yet, I've been burnt so many times by leaving a horse out. I realize you can't bet them all, but...


Your ticket is extremely heavy, since from a total of 19 horses in the 3 races you select 10 of them and even worse most of the low prices among them. You should try to narrow your opinions down to less horses, even going with a single if you want to make a profit. Otherwise you just try to cash a ticket which in the long run is a guarantee way to lose..

[HuggingTheRail]

Looks like the 2 is scratched in race 3...

$4 worth of entertainment

2,5 // 2,5 // 4

[Thebigguy]

I know personally i feel that right now, RRR, Jacobson and maybe one other trainer are too big of a "Factor" so i'm avoiding any kinds of races like this in my betting. I dont' want to be betting "trainer races" so to me, these races in your sequence are "skips" for the most part.

You have a specific opinion as to why Candyman E is a horse you don't like? He seems nice on paper and is a gamester who knows how to win. It does look like a "3 horse race" and if Candyman E is 3-5, i would agree that he's ok to try and beat, but if he's just one of the 3 contenders and isnt specifically overbet, maybe he's not one to just toss out.

He's out now so it does not matter, but rumor is he is barley together. Doubt we see him back anytime soon.

[DeltaLover]

After the scratch third race is left with only 4 horses, crippling the whole pick 5 sequence!

The first three races today have a cumulative purse of $160K and a total of 18 horses! I remember NYRA people claiming that the added casino $$ would have improved winter racing by attracting more entries, something that despite the very large purses have never happened so far... Last week we had a pick 6 paying $72 and most of the races are so weak from the betting perspective that I do not even bother to handicap!

[wisconsin]

Well, you are on your way if you played the ticket.

:7: wins leg 1

[DeltaLover]

!@#$%%^ stayed completely out..

[Thebigguy]

I know personally i feel that right now, RRR, Jacobson and maybe one other trainer are too big of a "Factor" so i'm avoiding any kinds of races like this in my betting. I dont' want to be betting "trainer races" so to me, these races in your sequence are "skips" for the most part.

You have a specific opinion as to why Candyman E is a horse you don't like? He seems nice on paper and is a gamester who knows how to win. It does look like a "3 horse race" and if Candyman E is 3-5, i would agree that he's ok to try and beat, but if he's just one of the 3 contenders and isnt specifically overbet, maybe he's not one to just toss out.


I think Im taking this advice and staying away from Aqueduct until at least March. I cant get a read on Jacobson. I hate him in the 1st today. Hate him in the second and like his horse in the 3rd but hate his other horse who scratches and kills my prices. Rough running 2,3,4 after catching an 11-1 shot in the first leg. I don’t like the criminal activity going on here. Its so obviously. Guys like Levine and Hushion who used to be kingpins cant win a race because of this guy.

[Stillriledup]

I think Im taking this advice and staying away from Aqueduct until at least March. I cant get a read on Jacobson. I hate him in the 1st today. Hate him in the second and like his horse in the 3rd but hate his other horse who scratches and kills my prices. Rough running 2,3,4 after catching an 11-1 shot in the first leg. I don’t like the criminal activity going on here. Its so obviously. Guys like Levine and Hushion who used to be kingpins cant win a race because of this guy.

I hear you, i've stopped betting NYRA altogether, too many scenarios where i'm too concerned about 'trainer racing" and in the races i can finally not have to worry about RRR or DJ, i have jocks grabbing and ripping horses and manipulaing running styles, too hard to get a read on anything there. If i handicap pace on paper, and pace doesnt show up, its "they're off and you lose" type of stuff. Betting on tracks where the jocks let horses run out of there and the pace is honest is more my cup of tea.

[Stillriledup]

He's out now so it does not matter, but rumor is he is barley together. Doubt we see him back anytime soon.

Candyman E won today.

Where did you hear this rumor?