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PaceAdvantage
12-22-2013, 09:11 PM
Futures up almost .5% in the Sunday overnight trade...gapped up in fact....everyone has forgotten what it's like to sell...lol

JustRalph
12-22-2013, 10:18 PM
Just heard a guy on the radio say nothing significant will happen in the market this week.........hmmmmmm......

Hoofless_Wonder
12-22-2013, 11:10 PM
Give it time. What goes up, will eventually come down. There of course are varying opinions, but the "school of thought" I believe to be most logical says the market is more unstable than in 2008, and the U.S. is on the road to a Nikkei-like crash and non-recovery.

They don't take monopoly money at the track, and someday in the future the dollar will not devalue fast enough to keep up with the "economic sudden stop" that Greenspan, Bernanke, Paulson, etc., have been preparing for decades.

Let's hope we stay civil when the reset hits....

RaceBookJoe
12-26-2013, 02:17 PM
TWTR has just been an amazing trading stock past week and and most of December actually.

badcompany
12-26-2013, 04:49 PM
TWTR has just been an amazing trading stock past week and and most of December actually.

Crazy volume.

_______
12-26-2013, 05:39 PM
Crazy volume.

It now has the same market valuation as FedEx. One has planes and all kinds of infrastructure. The other has a lot of people awfully excited about a business model they can't possibly both explain and still want to own the stock.

badcompany
12-26-2013, 06:15 PM
It now has the same market valuation as FedEx. One has planes and all kinds of infrastructure. The other has a lot of people awfully excited about a business model they can't possibly both explain and still want to own the stock.

Infrastructure can actually be a negative because of maintenance costs. It's about how much that infrastructure can earn.

Google has 10x the net income and market cap of FedEx. So, if you think Twitter can become 1/10 of Google, the valuation makes sense. Time will tell.

_______
12-26-2013, 06:37 PM
Infrastructure can actually be a negative because of maintenance costs. It's about how much that infrastructure can earn.

Google has 10x the net income and market cap of FedEx. So, if you think Twitter can become 1/10 of Google, the valuation makes sense. Time will tell.

Google is trading at 32x trailing earnings. Facebook is at 121x.

You can't calculate an earnings multiple on Twitter because they have negative earnings per share.

If anyone wants to own this stock, they would do well to wait until after January 1st when I would expect a lot of the people who got in early and don't want a large tax bill in 2014 to dump their positions.

You really have to stretch yourself to make a case for Twitter at these valuations. I applaud the effort, though.

RaceBookJoe
12-26-2013, 06:50 PM
Crazy volume.

Sure has. One of my trading plays are breakouts, and usually you want volume, but one thing I have been also doing has been looking for breakouts with low volume too. TWTR definitely belongs in the "breakout with volume" column. Next low-vol breakout I see will get posted. Will follow TWTR tomorrow too, should be worth a bunch of $ tomorrow too.

RaceBookJoe
12-26-2013, 06:52 PM
It now has the same market valuation as FedEx. One has planes and all kinds of infrastructure. The other has a lot of people awfully excited about a business model they can't possibly both explain and still want to own the stock.

Thankfully as traders, we don't have to waste time with valuation or any of that other fundamental garbage.

badcompany
12-26-2013, 06:55 PM
Google is trading at 32x trailing earnings. Facebook is at 121x.

You can't calculate an earnings multiple on Twitter because they have negative earnings per share.

If anyone wants to own this stock, they would do well to wait until after January 1st when I would expect a lot of the people who got in early and don't want a large tax bill in 2014 to dump their positions.

You really have to stretch yourself to make a case for Twitter at these valuations. I applaud the effort, though.

I wouldn't buy it. I don't mess with companies that don't have a track record of revenue. That said, a company's value is based on all of it's earnings going forward discounted back to the present. The current quarter means very little in the big picture. Currently, the best example would be Amazon. They have no current earnings but the investing world believes they'll have sh!tload going forward.

_______
12-26-2013, 06:58 PM
Thankfully as traders, we don't have to waste time with valuation or any of that other fundamental garbage.

Fair enough.

You're missing out on a great novel while reading the individual letters one at a time, though.

badcompany
12-26-2013, 07:01 PM
Thankfully as traders, we don't have to waste time with valuation or any of that other fundamental garbage.

When I short term trade SPY or SLV, fundamentals mean nothing.

However, with long-term trades/investments, once I get past price, I tend to look at the business, but, truth be told, I believe I can outperform the market without ever looking at another Income Statement.

reckless
12-26-2013, 07:07 PM
Google is trading at 32x trailing earnings. Facebook is at 121x.

You can't calculate an earnings multiple on Twitter because they have negative earnings per share.

If anyone wants to own this stock, they would do well to wait until after January 1st when I would expect a lot of the people who got in early and don't want a large tax bill in 2014 to dump their positions.

You really have to stretch yourself to make a case for Twitter at these valuations. I applaud the effort, though.

When companies has zero earnings sometimes using price/sales is a good metric for some of us to use.

Twitter sells for 71.30 times sales

Apple 2.99 times sales

Microsoft 3.85 times sales

Accenture 1.80 times sales

Abbott Labs 1.47 times sales

Boeing 1.21 times sales

Facebook 20.71 times sales

I guess we are approaching the 21st Century dot com era all over again, valuing companies by tweets and likes, just like we did clicks and eyeballs an investing generation ago.

I own all these companies, save Twitter and Facebook, some for many years. I won't say the dull group I own will outperform the hot social companies, but I do know I sleep better at night and have remarkable capital gains on all of them.

badcompany
12-26-2013, 07:13 PM
When companies has zero earnings sometimes using price/sales is a good metric for some of us to use.

Twitter sells for 71.30 times sales

Apple 2.99 times sales

Microsoft 3.85 times sales

Accenture 1.80 times sales

Abbott Labs 1.47 times sales

Boeing 1.21 times sales

Facebook 20.71 times sales

I guess we are approaching the 21st Century dot com era all over again, valuing companies by tweets and likes, just like we did clicks and eyeballs an investing generation ago.

I own all these companies, save Twitter and Facebook, some for many years. I won't say the dull group I own will outperform the hot social companies, but I do know I sleep better at night and have remarkable capital gains on all of them.

The problem with this is that these companies are in different stages of development. Comparing Twitter to Microsoft is like comparing an NBA veteran to a high school All-American.

_______
12-26-2013, 07:30 PM
The problem with this is that these companies are in different stages of development. Comparing Twitter to Microsoft is like comparing an NBA veteran to a high school All-American.


I don't disagree with this but how many High School All Americans make the NBA?

There's an assumption in Twitters valuation that they're a shoo in.

RaceBookJoe
12-26-2013, 07:50 PM
Fair enough.

You're missing out on a great novel while reading the individual letters one at a time, though.

I trade not invest, so I honestly don't feel I am missing out by "reading individual letters" just like I don't feel I miss out on betting a horse race just because I don't invest in the pick6. I made a ton on TWTR today trading it and will gladly take that everyday if offered...hopefully tomorrow also :)

RaceBookJoe
12-26-2013, 07:57 PM
When I short term trade SPY or SLV, fundamentals mean nothing.

However, with long-term trades/investments, once I get past price, I tend to look at the business, but, truth be told, I believe I can outperform the market without ever looking at another Income Statement.

Totally agree on fa if you plan on holding longer term, otherwise all you need is momentum up or down in price. For stocks, short to intermediate I feel most important fundamental would be earnings date. The thing with timeframe is that every trader has their own interpretation. To me, scalp is seconds to minutes, swing would be 1-4 hours, intermediate would be 1-14 days, long term anything over 2 weeks. I cant remember the last "long term" trade I have done, intermediate trades are usually done with options for less risk.

reckless
12-26-2013, 08:18 PM
The problem with this is that these companies are in different stages of development. Comparing Twitter to Microsoft is like comparing an NBA veteran to a high school All-American.

I agree with you that the comparison I made works for me. Yes, they are at different stages of their corporate life cycle.

I am not knocking the momentum style of trading, in- and out-, take a nickle here, a dime there. I have always said there's room in the stock market for all sorts of styles and even systems and there is no right way, or wrong.

Bottom line success is my lone criteria.

I have never been critical of the day traders and the short term players. It isn't for me, that's all.

All that being said, there will come a time when valuation of a stock indeed becomes paramount, even to the trading and momentum crowd.

Microsoft was a great business in 1999 as it is today, the real difference today is MSFT sells for 13 times earnings and sold for 50 times earnings in 1999.

RaceBookJoe
12-26-2013, 08:41 PM
Totally agree on fa if you plan on holding longer term, otherwise all you need is momentum up or down in price. For stocks, short to intermediate I feel most important fundamental would be earnings date. The thing with timeframe is that every trader has their own interpretation. To me, scalp is seconds to minutes, swing would be 1-4 hours, intermediate would be 1-14 days, long term anything over 2 weeks. I cant remember the last "long term" trade I have done, intermediate trades are usually done with options for less risk.

I mentioned that earnings date is most important to a trader, but should also throw in as a close second , the short interest in a stock.

RaceBookJoe
12-26-2013, 08:50 PM
All that being said, there will come a time when valuation of a stock indeed becomes paramount, even to the trading and momentum crowd.

Microsoft was a great business in 1999 as it is today, the real difference today is MSFT sells for 13 times earnings and sold for 50 times earnings in 1999.

Still not sold on the first sentence only because if a price is moving its because of momentum not valuation..but its all how someone see that argument, and I can see yours..which is just as valid as any other honestly.

The second sentence : the other different in MSFT is at in 1999 you could make $5-10K/day trading it because it moved, in 2013 it barely moves..only had a 32cent range today. But again to your full post, its all on the individuals style...some styles fit people and other styles don't, nothing wrong with either way. Just like some people like exactas, others like superfectas...neither is right or wrong, just different. Having been away from the buy/hold scene, I am enjoying reading what others see/study etc. I have always felt that traders can learn from investors and investors can learn things from traders.

badcompany
12-26-2013, 11:04 PM
Reckless,

Far be it for me to tell someone how to employ their money, but I wonder how an FA guy explains this.

These "experts" are highly paid for their fundamental analysis, yet, the year they were needed the most, 2008, they all completely missed the boat by predicting that market would end the year higher. It ended the year at 900.

My explanation is that these are not dumb, they're just trying to do the impossible: forecast future prices using fundamental analysis.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/35c54cec930fd2bbd6b1a4443117362a_zps5e8225b0.jpg

Valuist
12-27-2013, 10:42 AM
Reckless,

Far be it for me to tell someone how to employ their money, but I wonder how an FA guy explains this.

These "experts" are highly paid for their fundamental analysis, yet, the year they were needed the most, 2008, they all completely missed the boat by predicting that market would end the year higher. It ended the year at 900.

My explanation is that these are not dumb, they're just trying to do the impossible: forecast future prices using fundamental analysis.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/35c54cec930fd2bbd6b1a4443117362a_zps5e8225b0.jpg


That's why one has to learn technical analysis. But if the 200 DMA breaks on the S & P, look out. It will happen in 2014. Once it does, it will take a long time to get above the 200 day.

RaceBookJoe
12-27-2013, 12:53 PM
TWTR with another busy day, nice moves and at the moment over 28M shares traded.

Hoofless_Wonder
12-29-2013, 06:12 AM
Twitter, Facebook, Amazon, Apple - the 21st Century replay of the 17th Century Dutch Tulip Frenzy.....

RaceBookJoe
12-29-2013, 12:26 PM
Twitter, Facebook, Amazon, Apple - the 21st Century replay of the 17th Century Dutch Tulip Frenzy.....

I have 1 monitor dedicated to the big names, which currently are AAPL,AMZN,BIDU,TSLA,GOOG,LNKD,NFLX,TWTR. I recently replaced GMCR with TWTR, but still pop it up on another monitor along with FB and any other momentum stock.

Saratoga_Mike
12-29-2013, 12:37 PM
Twitter, Facebook, Amazon, Apple - the 21st Century replay of the 17th Century Dutch Tulip Frenzy.....

Apple has approx. $140/share in net cash. The stock's at $560. If you net out the cash, you have a $420 stock. The company's generating roughly $40/share in free cash flow. Therefore, it's trading at less than 11x free cash flow, a significant discount to the market. I don't own Apple, and I don't have an opinion on it as a stock, but it should not be included in your list above, imo.

Tape Reader
01-04-2014, 02:34 PM
Friday -12 on AAPL, on an up day, has me thinking about puts on this stock. Anyone else?

barn32
01-29-2014, 10:41 PM
Futures up almost .5% in the Sunday overnight trade...gapped up in fact....everyone has forgotten what it's like to sell...lolSeven days after this was posted the Dow topped at 16,576. It's now down 838 from that point. Just sayin...

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/320x240q90/547/uocu.png

PaceAdvantage
01-30-2014, 10:23 AM
Seven days after this was posted the Dow topped at 16,576. It's now down 838 from that point. Just sayin...

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/320x240q90/547/uocu.pngGood thing I was making a simple observation in that post and not a recommendation or prediction, otherwise I might think you posted this just to make me look silly.... :lol:

badcompany
01-30-2014, 03:46 PM
Good thing I was making a simple observation in that post and not a recommendation or prediction, otherwise I might think you posted this just to make me look silly.... :lol:

Even with the sharp selloff, a number of my stocks have already bounced back to their former levels and the ones that haven't, hadn't had a pull back in a while.

So far, the sell off looks to be just a shakout, and the trend still looks to be up.

PaceAdvantage
02-19-2014, 11:18 AM
Seven days after this was posted the Dow topped at 16,576. It's now down 838 from that point. Just sayin...

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/320x240q90/547/uocu.pngWhere is it now?

lamboguy
02-19-2014, 12:00 PM
dow 16,206.82 as of Feb. 19.2014 11:00 a.m. EST