Why Do People Give up Good Software?

[andicap]

I can't tell you how many times I have read on this board, "That software was good when I used to use it."
OR
"I did really well with that software."
"I really liked that software."

If the software was so damn good, why did you give it up. If I found software that made money for me, I would part with my bronzed baby shoes (if I had them) before giving up my software.

Unless you have found something better. Is this what usually happens??? Or it was an old manual input which is I admit a pain in the rear? Or it's not supported anymore, etc. ThoroVision, for example, which I used to use, is not supported.

Then there's the corollary I read all the time.
"I used to use {SUBSTITUTE SOME METHOD, SYSTEM, PACE FORMULA HERE} and didn't really well with it."

Some people have done great with about 10 different methods.

Now come on, when you say you did "great," or "good," or
"it worked for me," do you really mean you have a positive ROI or did you happen to cash a few longshots, but gave up because it wasn't consistent enough to produce a profit?

I think people who post they "did well" with a method or software should also say why they no longer use it. Otherwise, the statement carries much less credibility IMHO.

[sq764]

People USED TO make their own speed figs and they profited nicely from them. Then when Beyer speed figs came out, their #'s were rendered useless and their edge was gone.

Do you need to find something better to give up a method that isn't so profitable anymore?

Just a thought..

[TRM]

Andicap,

As a portion of a direct quote from one of my earlier posts:

Most of the software that I used was very good. Various programs that I have used are discussed on a daily basis on this board. However, it wasn't quite what I was looking for in a program(s). The decision for me to write my own was simple. I handicap races in various different ways. Alw/Stakes vs claimers, Turf vs. Dirt, and some races I may concentrate on speed, others form cycles or pace, some may involve spot plays or class. It just depends on how the race presents itself. I wanted a multi-function program, not just one stuck on pace or speed.

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03-24-2004 02:30 AM IP: Logged

What more of an explanation do you need as to why I don't use commercial software any longer? Another reason besides the one above was cost. I consider myself a part-time player. Maybe one night a week and one weekend 2x per month. Some of the software that I was using charged a monthly fee for unlimited downloads. That's great for the full time players, but just not cost-effective for me.

Have a good one!
:)

TRM

[andicap]

Originally posted by andicap
.

Then there's the corollary I read all the time.
"I used to use {SUBSTITUTE SOME METHOD, SYSTEM, PACE FORMULA HERE} and didn't really well with it."
.

Of course I meant "did really well with it."

I also recall some people here saying they just like to experiement with different types of software as a hobby -- a fun thing to do.

And I understand that using software can't be drudgery. Even if you're winning with it, if it's a chore you probably won't run it that often. It's gotta be you.

[Blackgold]

One difference, I think, between part time players and full time players (or every day players) is- full time players have a positive ROI.

I continue using the software I have because it helps me produce a positive ROI, even with the download fees, the track take and the April 15th take.

[sq764]

That's a bit of a generalization, isn't it?

Are you saying that all full-time players have a positive ROI and all part-timer's have a negative ROI?

[RonTiller]

andicap,

This is a brilliant question, one that I have pondered over the last 10 years in the business. A handicapper's version of William James' classic "The Varieties of Religious Experience" needs to be written, called "The Varieties of Handicapping Experience". Heres my take.

There are an amazing number of customers who have been downloading data for the same program without interruption for a decade. All In One and HTR (born as MPH) were the first two programs we provided data for and these customers are by all appearances happy with what they have. What percenatge of these people consistently show a profit? Nobody keeps statistics on that. Based on conversations I've had over the years some of these people just love handicapping, love horse racing and love the intellectual challenge it offers. While 'turning a profit' may be the goal, it is the challenege, the activity, the excitement of the hunt, that probably keeps most of these players coming back.

Some actual comments I've heard from this group, paraphrased:

'I'll be handicapping horses till the day I die, win or lose.'
'I rarely bet; its just fun figuring all this stuff out.'
'I made $7000 last year and am $3000 down so far this year. Oh well.'
'I bet $3000 a day and if I stopped making a profit, I'd find something to do where I WOULD make a profit (day trading?).'
'I've been trying to beat this game for 40 years and still can't. But I'm hooked'
'Handicapping horses is more difficult than quantum mechanics (from a PHD working in statistical aspects of quantum mechanics).'

We've even had a few calls from people fed up with handicapping and losing, I mean totally, completely sick and tired of this [fill in long string of expletives], only to call back a month or six months later wantinting to start back up again.

Some people I've talked to started out with a bang then fizzled after a month or two or three. Some of these may just be catching the crest of a wave of winners at precisely the right time (I go to the craps table, make 8 Don't Pass bets and all 8 role 11 on the first role - Wow, this is easy! - I'll be a professional craps player soon). I've witnessed a person make $100,000 in 3 weeks riding just such a wave, a completely mechanical betting procedure using a program I won't mention. He stopped before losing all the money, wisely.

Kitts and I have talked about the New Program syndrome, where for some reason, the first month you get the program, you frequently do better. I can't swear to this phenomenon but we guessed that because the program is new, the users pay more attention to everything, haven't developed bad habits yet and haven't fallen into the automaticities we all fall into yet.

Conversely, I've received calls to cancel a month long subscription after one day of use. In one case, the user knew the program wasn't for him after procesing just one racecard. In several others, the users agrily called back after one day commenting on how much money they lost. Some, by all appearances thoughtful, intelligent and experienced handicappers, have called after a month or two and wondered aloud how Program X could have any customers at all, as bad as it is. Now this is the same program used by another thoughtful, intelligent and experienced handicapper for many years who told me if we ever stop providing data for Program X, he'll quit handicapping. Go figure!

Another aspect is variety. One user tried all the programs we provide data for and said he liked them ALL. He got bored using one program, win or lose. His brain was wired for frequent, new creative challenges and one program couldn't provide that, like the supercomputer pioneer Cray, who designed, built, sailed and burned a sailboat every year.

There is also the quest for the HOLY GRAIL. Load it up, turn it on, print it out, bet what it tells you, make a fortune, quit your job, achieve handicapping enlightenment. Tried Multicaps, no grail, sucks; tried Handicapping Magician, no grail, sucks, tried Allways, no grail, expensive, sucks.

Having new stuff in a program to stimulate the brain cells is another factor. When John Rancont died, his group lost a lot of customers immediately, some because the leader of the group died but others because the software was presumably at a dead end in their eyes. No more weekly (or even daily) updates ever again. Best to go to a program that can still evolve rather than than stay with a version frozen forever. Yet if it worked for you while John was alive, it ought to work for you the day after John died.

Lastly, some programs just feel right for different people. Kitts went on a crusade, tried a lot of programs and ended up were he started, with All In One. It just felt right. I'm not aware that Kitts has any significant negative feedback on any of these other programs.

Tom Hambleton once said Dick Schmidt could make money with any handicapping program, because he handicaps the program and plays to its strengths. Likewise, many people would lose with any program, not because they are not as smart as Dick or they haven't written handicapping books or didn't know Howard Sartin or etc. etc. I have seen handicapping defeat many very intelligent, hard working people. What it is that people like Dick have that more intelligent, harder working consistent losers don't is the topic for another thread.

Ron Tiller
HDW

[JimG]

Ron,

Thanks for sharing. Very insightful post! I saw myself in a couple of those scenarios but I'm not saying which one(s). :D

Jim

[Speed Figure]

I know that kitts was all over the CAPPER at 1st. He said URTI was working for him, but now it looks like it's ALL-IN-ONE. You always come in with good stuff ron!:cool:

[JimG]

Originally posted by Speed Figure
I know that kitts was all over the CAPPER at 1st. He said URTI was working for him, but now it looks like it's ALL-IN-ONE. You always come in with good stuff ron!:cool:

We are starting up a "Horseracing Software Anonymous". The first 3 members of this group are:

Lefty
Kitts
Myself

JimG

PS..."Hello, my name is JimG and I am a software junkie" LOL
:p

[andicap]

Jim
You don't want to know how many programs I went through until the mid-90s when I still thought there was a black box in there somewhere. Now I know better of course and wonder how I would have fared if I had spent all those hours learning NEW programs on a single OLD program.

Finally, I settled on well-made programs that fit my style of handicapping rather than vice versa. Both Equisim and HTR did that nicely (with some custom work done for me by the authors) and I went HTR only because I felt more comfortable with it and it did not use BRIS data, but the good stuff from HDW.

[Lefty]

All of the above posts: Boy, ain't it the truth...

[Tom]

Last June, I was frustrated and decide to quit palying. I cancelled my HDW subscription and vowed to walk away clean.
I could not sleep, I could hear my database calling to me in the dead of night..."Feed Me.....Feed Me......Need Data....
I re-upped before the month was over.

But in reality, from Phase III, Sartin, through Energy, Thoromation, K Gen, MPH, HTR, Total PAce,,,,,I have been playing the same type of game, just using newer program that did a little more work for me each time. I never abandoned a prgram, just gradutated to a new level. But I still go back and use all the old ones from time to time.

[GR1@HTR]

Was very fortunate to come across HTR just a few months into my new handicapping career....But a couple of times a year I will mix in something different (a DRF or Bris PP). Looking at something different gets me a little excited. Kinda like looking at a new Centerfold in Playboy or something....

[John]

We Humans always look for change. Society calls it progress.

[Lefty]

This human calls it curiosity...

[hurrikane]

GR1. Looks like the girlfriend has a tough night. :D

[JimG]

Originally posted by RonTiller

Kitts and I have talked about the New Program syndrome, where for some reason, the first month you get the program, you frequently do better. I can't swear to this phenomenon but we guessed that because the program is new, the users pay more attention to everything, haven't developed bad habits yet and haven't fallen into the automaticities we all fall into yet.



This "syndrome" happens to me whenever I switch programs. I thought I was the only one. Even when I recycle a program, that tends to happen. I have had some of my biggest days betting the races in the last 6 years when I switch to a new program or switch back to an old program.

Programs I have used over the last 10 years:

HSH
Equisim
Capsheet
All-Ways Pro
Capper
HTR
Pro Pace
Work Horse Pro
Plus V
HTRF
Synergism
Zambuto
Insta-Pick Pro
QuickHorse
Fastcapper

Wow, that's alot of programs. Probably even forgot a couple. But the cost of the programs is a small amount compared to the data costs. That's where it can really add up. Whether using bris or HDW, if you play much, the data costs add up. Of course, buying a racing form , which I don't, would be a cost as well.

Jim

[Tom]

I think that when you use a program too long, you get sloppy, you take shortcuts, cut corners. With Sartin programs, it was essential to handicap the race first and only put contenders in to the program (at least up until T-Mation) but after a while, I would start letting the program pick my contenders.
When you try a new program, or go back to one, I suspect your inner self is telling you it will work and you are then using it in a more focused manner.

[Derek2U]

Endless data ... here are the 1st real results from my DB ... now
a growing 120K** .... (1) One horse selected to WIN per race;
(2) ~60% races Qualify as Bets (3) ALL rules enforced by the
Computer , etc ...... Well, ONLY WIN BETS yield between 2% to
5% +ROI ... repeated random samples of 200 races drawn ....
VERY few losing 200 race-samples .... BUT, using the EXACTA algorithm with the PICK on top only, the ROI increases to ~8%.
I dont want to detail you to death since I've already posted
about sampling etc etc but the key question for me is this: IF
I'm going to bet to WIN only then Boxing Exactas makes no sense
but the right Exacta approach cannot worsen the results only
improve $$ but once again it's the computer's call. I would like
your comments (even though my results are not that Fabulous.
PS: these results are from parimutuel tracks not rebate shops
like Pinnacle (although it could be another plus factor) Derek

[andicap]

Jim,
your opinion on two programs below

1. Pro Pace -- I don't care if the angles produced a profit on thier own - of course they don't. But did they work often enough?

2. Quick Horse. What was your experience here. Doesn't this guy automote stuff for you?




Originally posted by JimG
This "syndrome" happens to me whenever I switch programs. I thought I was the only one. Even when I recycle a program, that tends to happen. I have had some of my biggest days betting the races in the last 6 years when I switch to a new program or switch back to an old program.

Programs I have used over the last 10 years:

HSH
Equisim
Capsheet
All-Ways Pro
Capper
HTR
Pro Pace
Work Horse Pro
Plus V
HTRF
Synergism
Zambuto
Insta-Pick Pro
QuickHorse
Fastcapper

Wow, that's alot of programs. Probably even forgot a couple. But the cost of the programs is a small amount compared to the data costs. That's where it can really add up. Whether using bris or HDW, if you play much, the data costs add up. Of course, buying a racing form , which I don't, would be a cost as well.

Jim

[JimG]

Andy,

ProPace,

Used for a couple of months a couple of years ago. It ferreted out some big long shots but missed many logical horses. It uses some interesting trainer angles including form darkening. If your looking for a program to add longshots that you are missing in exotics, you might want to give it a try.

QuickHorse,

A program I recently purchased at a reasonable price (under $50). The program uses tuning to check the database for what has been winning at the track. Is fairly flexible in using the tuning and the author seems willing to improve the program. I was able to simulate a turf method I have been using for years since the days of Plus3 in Quickhorse and had some success with it. I think it is a decent program to try and the cost is low and it uses Bris/Tsn files, including procaps. Doubt if I will use long term as it doesn't have the "feel" for me that a couple of others do, however, I am not sorry I purchased.

I started to send you a PM or e-mail but decided it was time to comment on the board when asked about a program. After all, it is only one man's opinion.

Have a great day.

Jim

[sq764]

Jim, I agree with you on Propace.. I still use it now from time to time, but only on certain tracks.. Speed favoring tracks seem to do well, so Mountaineer is a good track to use it on..

Also, I have picked out some bombs at Louisiana and Lone Star..

[midnight]

I also subscribe to the theory that software only takes over the drudgery of manual entry and calculations. It's still only as good as the alogrithms coded into it, and it still can't substitute for some good old fashioned horse sense (pardon the pun), because it can't possibly take into account every possible race scenario that comes up.