Teach
12-19-2013, 11:17 AM
Aqueduct, Thursday, December 19, 2013
This will probably go down as shameless, self-serving, egocentric behavior but, for what it’s worth, I’ve been on a hot streak, lately. On Saturday’s card, I picked the first six in a row. Yesterday, I went 4 for 9. That means that, over the last two racing days, I’m batting .625. Can the streak continue?
I’m again looking for moisture on the track, now labeled as "good". As the Farmers Almanac once said: “Aw, Maw, Hear Comes The Thaw!”
Race One: I’m gonna talk this through like I was chatting with you on the phone. The horse that catches my attention is :1: Shankopotamus. The Mr Prospector-bred gelding has lifetime earnings of nearly a quarter of a mill. Beaten fave in last. Trainer David Jacobson is good with beaten faves. Uncharacteristically poor trip (speed duel) in last. Others I like are :4: Winning Touch; he won his last in this company and :2: Footnote in Blue, an admitted longshot try; he does have some solid wet-track breeding. Trainer Jim Acquilano’s good with shippers. The last spot in your exotic is a tossup. I’m thinking either :3: Tancredi or :6: Island Sunset.
Race Two: 7 Papa Doc (Duvalier?) is my choice in this maiden-claiming sprint. This is a nondescript field. Papa Doc appears to be the best. I would tread cautiously. The El Prado-bred gelding looks like he may be more suited for the turf than the dirt. Two of his three third-place finishes have come on the lawn. That said, he’s cutting back a half-panel. The gelding has had trouble carrying his speed the entire distance. One of the better apprentices, Emmanuel Esquivel, is in the irons for trainer Joe Orseno. Others I can make a case for are entry :1a: Chief Scout / :1: St. Sincere (no super if they both run). Then there’s the :8: Go to the Net who is winless in 27 tries and also the :3: Prince Curlin. He hasn’t shown much either, 0-for-9 lifetime, but he’s raced against better.
Race Three: :4: Masasi gets my nod in this optional claiming sprint. My vote is based on her two straight wins. The Southern Halo-bred filly stretches out a half-furlong, that should be a help to her running style. Jose Ortiz is most capable in the irons for trainer David Donk. Others to consider are :3: Roman Invader, by Roman Ruler. She very well may go off the chalk. She’s not done well recently, but she’s faced much better. If she runs her race, she can easily take this one. Another filly to consider is :5: PJ’s Superego. Should be closing; she’s six for seven, lifetime. If you’re playing a super, I’d consider :2: Belle Gallantey,
Race Four: 4 Bounty Pink is a Linda Rice-trainee who was last seen on the racetrack in a turf sprint. The Speightstown-bred filly was pulled up and vanned off in that one. Well, seven months have elapsed since that ill-fated try. On paper, her pedigree seems to indicate that she's the horse to beat here. But, her morning works have been less than stellar and she’s never run a route in her four previous tries. That said, I sense a lot of potential. Yet, that doesn’t always equate to fruition on the racetrack. Yet, I’m still willing to take a shot. Don’t expect a big return on the tote. There is, indeed, a very large risk-reward factor. Caveat emptor! Others to consider are :7: Lady C-Note (she may be “the sleeper” here; she should certainly handle a wet track). If you’re playing supers, I’d consider :3: See See See and :1: Andromeda’s Coming.
Race Five: :4: Prudent Investor looks like he could be “the horse“ here; the 4 year-old Indian Charlie-bred gelding has certainly faced better. All he appears to need is “a trip.” Add to that the solid connection of “The House of David,” Cohen and Jacobson. Others to consider are: :2: Street Thug (the logical); yet he hasn’t raced in nearly two months. Yet this Street Sense-bred colt’s morning work-tab has been decent. :3: Summer Sands is dropping down; :1: Ego Friendly should get the distance.
Race Six: 4 Heartfelt Jazz is my pick in this maiden-claiming sprint. The Gone West-bred filly closed nicely-nicely (Oh, the Damon Runyon was yesterday) in her only pari-mutual appearance. If she can avoid any bumping and get into gear a little earlier, she may well find it’s picture-taking time in the winner’s circle. :2: Possetivevibration was second in her last. I suspect she’ll receive a lot of attention. Certainly a factor here; should not be overlooked. :8: Backyard Birdie may be “the sleeper” here. I believe she has a chance; should handle any wetness, but must avoid any right turns at the start. Chris Englehart is good with maiden claimers. Then there’s :5: Lucky Nancy and :7: Very Precious if you’re playing exotics.
Race Seven: 3 Blossom’s Trail is my lukewarm pick here; she won her last at seven panels. She's no lead-pipe cinch, yet she still looks best. Then, there’s :1: Physical Delivery, a Charlton Baker trainee. The filly could do nothing in her last on the lawn at Belmont in June, but she’s now back on the main track. Has admittedly been away from the races for a while, but her most recent work, breezing from the gate at five panels was solid. Might be worth a look on the tote and in post parade. Another horse to consider is :2: Opalite; she might just well complete a gimmick. :5: Dattts Da Boss is most capable of hitting the tote and completing a gimmick.
Race Eight: :2: La Verdad has won three in a row, It’s very hard to argue with that. The filly is even dropping down off the win (I don’t want to appear skeptical, but it almost appears “suspicious”) Watch the tote and post parade. If she runs her race, she should handle these. :6: Seasoned Warrior has been second by a neck in her last two; looks like a major competitor. 9 Native One had a recent “bullet” work in which she “drilled” three panels in :36. That speaks volumes. If she can translate that morning work to today’s race, she becomes a distinct factor. :1: Superior Sarah fits well in this crowd; she shouldn’t be overlooked. Lifetime, the mare’s 11 for 14 at the distance.
Race Nine: In the finale, a maiden-claiming route, I’m going for what I sense will be a prohibitive longshot. Well, I’m talking about :4: Commodus (sounds like a Roman emperor). The horse has been running against much weaker at Finger Lakes, plus her only route race came on the lawn; a race in which she finished last by a city block. Yet trainer Chris Englehart does exceptionally well with horses he’s entered, under the category, second off a claim. I’m willing, as my old history professor used to say “pay my nickel and take my chance.” Others to consider are :10: Dapper Draper. He was leading into the stretch but wound up finishing third. Then there's :2: Muscles Marinara is dropping in company and may be able to complete an exotic. Finally, :1: Moravitz has been running on the lawn but now switches to the main. His only main track effort, heretofore, was a a third-place finish.
This will probably go down as shameless, self-serving, egocentric behavior but, for what it’s worth, I’ve been on a hot streak, lately. On Saturday’s card, I picked the first six in a row. Yesterday, I went 4 for 9. That means that, over the last two racing days, I’m batting .625. Can the streak continue?
I’m again looking for moisture on the track, now labeled as "good". As the Farmers Almanac once said: “Aw, Maw, Hear Comes The Thaw!”
Race One: I’m gonna talk this through like I was chatting with you on the phone. The horse that catches my attention is :1: Shankopotamus. The Mr Prospector-bred gelding has lifetime earnings of nearly a quarter of a mill. Beaten fave in last. Trainer David Jacobson is good with beaten faves. Uncharacteristically poor trip (speed duel) in last. Others I like are :4: Winning Touch; he won his last in this company and :2: Footnote in Blue, an admitted longshot try; he does have some solid wet-track breeding. Trainer Jim Acquilano’s good with shippers. The last spot in your exotic is a tossup. I’m thinking either :3: Tancredi or :6: Island Sunset.
Race Two: 7 Papa Doc (Duvalier?) is my choice in this maiden-claiming sprint. This is a nondescript field. Papa Doc appears to be the best. I would tread cautiously. The El Prado-bred gelding looks like he may be more suited for the turf than the dirt. Two of his three third-place finishes have come on the lawn. That said, he’s cutting back a half-panel. The gelding has had trouble carrying his speed the entire distance. One of the better apprentices, Emmanuel Esquivel, is in the irons for trainer Joe Orseno. Others I can make a case for are entry :1a: Chief Scout / :1: St. Sincere (no super if they both run). Then there’s the :8: Go to the Net who is winless in 27 tries and also the :3: Prince Curlin. He hasn’t shown much either, 0-for-9 lifetime, but he’s raced against better.
Race Three: :4: Masasi gets my nod in this optional claiming sprint. My vote is based on her two straight wins. The Southern Halo-bred filly stretches out a half-furlong, that should be a help to her running style. Jose Ortiz is most capable in the irons for trainer David Donk. Others to consider are :3: Roman Invader, by Roman Ruler. She very well may go off the chalk. She’s not done well recently, but she’s faced much better. If she runs her race, she can easily take this one. Another filly to consider is :5: PJ’s Superego. Should be closing; she’s six for seven, lifetime. If you’re playing a super, I’d consider :2: Belle Gallantey,
Race Four: 4 Bounty Pink is a Linda Rice-trainee who was last seen on the racetrack in a turf sprint. The Speightstown-bred filly was pulled up and vanned off in that one. Well, seven months have elapsed since that ill-fated try. On paper, her pedigree seems to indicate that she's the horse to beat here. But, her morning works have been less than stellar and she’s never run a route in her four previous tries. That said, I sense a lot of potential. Yet, that doesn’t always equate to fruition on the racetrack. Yet, I’m still willing to take a shot. Don’t expect a big return on the tote. There is, indeed, a very large risk-reward factor. Caveat emptor! Others to consider are :7: Lady C-Note (she may be “the sleeper” here; she should certainly handle a wet track). If you’re playing supers, I’d consider :3: See See See and :1: Andromeda’s Coming.
Race Five: :4: Prudent Investor looks like he could be “the horse“ here; the 4 year-old Indian Charlie-bred gelding has certainly faced better. All he appears to need is “a trip.” Add to that the solid connection of “The House of David,” Cohen and Jacobson. Others to consider are: :2: Street Thug (the logical); yet he hasn’t raced in nearly two months. Yet this Street Sense-bred colt’s morning work-tab has been decent. :3: Summer Sands is dropping down; :1: Ego Friendly should get the distance.
Race Six: 4 Heartfelt Jazz is my pick in this maiden-claiming sprint. The Gone West-bred filly closed nicely-nicely (Oh, the Damon Runyon was yesterday) in her only pari-mutual appearance. If she can avoid any bumping and get into gear a little earlier, she may well find it’s picture-taking time in the winner’s circle. :2: Possetivevibration was second in her last. I suspect she’ll receive a lot of attention. Certainly a factor here; should not be overlooked. :8: Backyard Birdie may be “the sleeper” here. I believe she has a chance; should handle any wetness, but must avoid any right turns at the start. Chris Englehart is good with maiden claimers. Then there’s :5: Lucky Nancy and :7: Very Precious if you’re playing exotics.
Race Seven: 3 Blossom’s Trail is my lukewarm pick here; she won her last at seven panels. She's no lead-pipe cinch, yet she still looks best. Then, there’s :1: Physical Delivery, a Charlton Baker trainee. The filly could do nothing in her last on the lawn at Belmont in June, but she’s now back on the main track. Has admittedly been away from the races for a while, but her most recent work, breezing from the gate at five panels was solid. Might be worth a look on the tote and in post parade. Another horse to consider is :2: Opalite; she might just well complete a gimmick. :5: Dattts Da Boss is most capable of hitting the tote and completing a gimmick.
Race Eight: :2: La Verdad has won three in a row, It’s very hard to argue with that. The filly is even dropping down off the win (I don’t want to appear skeptical, but it almost appears “suspicious”) Watch the tote and post parade. If she runs her race, she should handle these. :6: Seasoned Warrior has been second by a neck in her last two; looks like a major competitor. 9 Native One had a recent “bullet” work in which she “drilled” three panels in :36. That speaks volumes. If she can translate that morning work to today’s race, she becomes a distinct factor. :1: Superior Sarah fits well in this crowd; she shouldn’t be overlooked. Lifetime, the mare’s 11 for 14 at the distance.
Race Nine: In the finale, a maiden-claiming route, I’m going for what I sense will be a prohibitive longshot. Well, I’m talking about :4: Commodus (sounds like a Roman emperor). The horse has been running against much weaker at Finger Lakes, plus her only route race came on the lawn; a race in which she finished last by a city block. Yet trainer Chris Englehart does exceptionally well with horses he’s entered, under the category, second off a claim. I’m willing, as my old history professor used to say “pay my nickel and take my chance.” Others to consider are :10: Dapper Draper. He was leading into the stretch but wound up finishing third. Then there's :2: Muscles Marinara is dropping in company and may be able to complete an exotic. Finally, :1: Moravitz has been running on the lawn but now switches to the main. His only main track effort, heretofore, was a a third-place finish.