Shared Belief - Odds- 7-1 to win KD

[menifee]

I saw today that his odds on some of the overseas exchanges are 7-1 to win the Kentucky Derby.

Buying or selling at those odds?


I love Jerry Holllendorfer, but he has had a difficult time getting his horses to the Derby in one piece and I think his best finish was 5th with Chocolate Candy. The big beyer is intriguing. On the other hand, can this horse's feet hold up on dirt - he is out of Candy Ride. I always get excited by impressive two year olds, but their form does not hold up and I am always disappointed. In the last 10 yrs, I can only recall Looking at Lucky and Street Sense translating that form.

[Bettowin]

Selling. We are a long way from the KD by two year old standards. Sell now and then if you want hedge your bet (lock in a profit) by buying at higher odds later or just let it roll to the Derby and collect afterwards:)

[CincyHorseplayer]

Far too low for a horse that has never raced on dirt.The industry has itself convinced that synthetics aren't a 3rd surface.

[letswastemoney]

He has an explosive late punch, whereas the typical dirt move is the break the race wide open in the middle of the race, like Candy Boy (ironically by the same sire) almost did.

I need to see Shared Belief on dirt first before coming to a conclusion on his dirt ability.

[Stillriledup]

Is there any more "legs" of the Ky Derby pool where i can bet against him before he runs again?

[tanner12oz]

Is there any more "legs" of the Ky Derby pool where i can bet against him before he runs again?

3 more "pools" between now and derby..he looks good but like others have said long way off and its on rubber track..the derby road is littered with these types over the years. Maybe this years different but 99% of the time it aint

[burnsy]

The derby "pool".....the suckers, sucker bet. Yeah, 7-1 is a great line........6 months out, when the horse is about 3-1 to even make it in the gate and will probably be at least 9-2 or more on derby day...thats if hes one of the favorites. You would think people could be smarter with their bankroll but i'm glad these types are in the daily pool too.....;) Thats a goofy "fan" bet, if there ever was one. But watch the hype it gets for months on end. I have a buddy that liked Giacomo........it paid higher on the actual running of the derby...sucker.

[precocity]

sucker bet had 25 on violence last year how did that hold up.

[cj]

I wouldn't take 17-1, or even 27-1. Do people forget what happens every year leading up to the Derby?

[BIG49010]

Has anybody ever heard that Vegas got smoked on a future bet?

Crickets crickets crickets :bang:

[lamboguy]

they didn't spend millions in the middle of a dessert for people to take their money away from them

[1st time lasix]

I had a 50 -1 bet on the Marlins to win the World Series years ago. Just happened to be in Vegas when the news came on ESPN they "bought" a top name pitcher in free agency...... so i went down the elevator and bought a $100 ticket. A "sucker bet" that actually won! Marlins beat Indians in 7th game.

[iceknight]

Selling, I would rather roll out a keyed superfecta on Derby day morning if he makes it to the gate and gets any post position other than #13.
If he gets 13, I will play him to win, that's all, as I am sure I will get an overlay then.

[Robert Fischer]

Long way to go.

[classhandicapper]

I would never take that price, but I'd take even money that surface won't be the major issue if he winds up disappointing.

Candy Ride was fine on dirt.

He has produced quality horses that were fine on dirt.

Hollywood is the synthetic track most like dirt.

Shared Belief doesn't have a deep closer running style that might like some of the less speed friendly synthetic tracks more than dirt.

It's still a risk factor, but not gigantic.

[RacingFan1992]

There is still 137 days and counting. There is a lot that can happen. Honor Code and Shared Belief could fade fast into the background and who knows Ria Antonia could come back win the Louisiana Derby blow away the boys in the Derby, Preakness and Belmont. Ya see how contagious this is, now I'm doing it. I wish the best of luck to any and all horse who want to make a run at the Derby. I think this will be a good crop.

[Rex Phinney]

I would never take that price, but I'd take even money that surface won't be the major issue if he winds up disappointing.

Candy Ride was fine on dirt.

He has produced quality horses that were fine on dirt.

Hollywood is the synthetic track most like dirt.

Shared Belief doesn't have a deep closer running style that might like some of the less speed friendly synthetic tracks more than dirt.

It's still a risk factor, but not gigantic.

Agreed all the way around, if the horse doesn't pull it off it won't have anything to do with synthetic surface. These guys are acting like the horse ran a Zenyatta-esque type race. He didn't, he laid just off the pace, kept his cool when Candy Boy when AWOL up the backstretch and then finished the job when it was go time. I'm not sure what's not to like taking that style to dirt.

Also Hollywood Park is maybe the fairest synthetic out there, if this horse was doing it at Del Mar, I'd be worried.

Possible downfall #1, injury (always)
Possible downfall #2, distance
Possible downfall #3, the others catch up

I was there for the race Saturday, I didn't bet the horse because the price was just no good, in the end it looked like the easiest money of the day. Early as it is, I can assure you watching the horse come down the stretch, the first Saturday in May was on everyone's mind.

[Rex Phinney]

There is still 137 days and counting. There is a lot that can happen. Honor Code and Shared Belief could fade fast into the background and who knows Ria Antonia could come back win the Louisiana Derby blow away the boys in the Derby, Preakness and Belmont. Ya see how contagious this is, now I'm doing it. I wish the best of luck to any and all horse who want to make a run at the Derby. I think this will be a good crop.

I'm not forgetting that New Year's Day wasn't there Saturday either. That horse ran a pro's race in the Juvy. stuck in the pack, finding the rail when and finishing strong. I don't know if he is the fastest horse in the world, but he seems tough as nails to me.

[classhandicapper]

I was there for the race Saturday, I didn't bet the horse because the price was just no good, in the end it looked like the easiest money of the day. Early as it is, I can assure you watching the horse come down the stretch, the first Saturday in May was on everyone's mind.

I watched it on TV. There was a point through the stretch where it looked like he was reaching out and running so fast I mumbled to myself "Holy crap this horse can run". Good thing I didn't bet the race because I would have taken a shot with Tap It Rich, but the price wasn't good enough for me on him either (thankfully).

[pondman]

$451,000 in his first 3.

You'll never get him for more than 5-2.

Most of you will be betting him next year in the Kentucky derby at 3/5.

Not Breed for durability. Probably has about 3 races left in him.

If you've got to bet the speed numbers, you might as well give him your money at 7-1. If you've got to bet the KD, you might as well bet him now.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I might take 7-1 if the bet is his actually making the gate.

[letswastemoney]

$451,000 in his first 3.

You'll never get him for more than 5-2.

Most of you will be betting him next year in the Kentucky derby at 3/5.

Not Breed for durability. Probably has about 3 races left in him.

If you've got to bet the speed numbers, you might as well give him your money at 7-1. If you've got to bet the KD, you might as well bet him now.
No Kentucky Derby favorite will ever be 3/5 because there are simply too many options, unless he puts in a Secretariat like performance in every prep race until then.

Anyways, he's no lock to win those prep races, so that's another reason Shared Belief probably will not be 3/5 in the Derby.

[nijinski]

He ran a great race . Let's see if he can ship and how he does on dirt .
He has a very nice grass pedigree imo .

Hollendorfer is a major player in California . That's where the majority of his success is . Can he bring him up to the triple crown races ?

I'm not in a rush to get a ticket ..

[Mineshaft]

$451,000 in his first 3.

You'll never get him for more than 5-2.

Most of you will be betting him next year in the Kentucky derby at 3/5.

Not Breed for durability. Probably has about 3 races left in him.

If you've got to bet the speed numbers, you might as well give him your money at 7-1. If you've got to bet the KD, you might as well bet him now.





3/5 in the KD I think u might be on crack my boy

[plainolebill]

Secretariat was 3/2 in a 13 horse field.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Secretariat never raced on moon dust as a 2yo! :D

[iceknight]

$451,000 in his first 3.

You'll never get him for more than 5-2.

Most of you will be betting him next year in the Kentucky derby at 3/5.

Not Breed for durability. Probably has about 3 races left in him.

If you've got to bet the speed numbers, you might as well give him your money at 7-1. If you've got to bet the KD, you might as well bet him now. You talk big a lot. A bettor need not take the odds if the reward/risk is not justified. But we don't mind sitting out and watching a great performance by an athlete. I remember you talked big about Orb winning the BC Classic several months before he was even headed there. I am sure there are several other occasions of you and some others talking up a horse.

[classhandicapper]

I might take 7-1 if the bet is his actually making the gate.

Has anyone ever tracked the probability of the leading few 2YOs actually making the Derby?

[Stillriledup]

Is there any more "legs" of the Ky Derby pool where i can bet against him before he runs again?

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/82992/hollendorfer-to-work-shared-belief-friday

They said Jan 24 he will work....but i dont see that this horse has a work since Jan 3.

[menifee]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/82992/hollendorfer-to-work-shared-belief-friday

They said Jan 24 he will work....but i dont see that this horse has a work since Jan 3.

He stayed in the barn. As I noted in the first post - Candy Ride's offspring notoriously have bad feet. They can't get his feet right. I hope it is not a long term issue.

[classhandicapper]

The good news is that he's still at least galloping. So he isn't losing all his fitness. There's still time to catch up if they can correct the problem.

[tonypp]

27 TO1 BETI wouldn't take 17-1, or even 27-1. Do people forget what happens every year leading up to the Derby?

[classhandicapper]

On paper, the CashCall looked like a very strong race from a qualitative "non figure" perspective (especially compared to the typical CashCall that is usually more like a Grade 2 than Grade 1).

One thing is clearer now than it was a few weeks ago given the results last week in the Robert B Lewis and this weekend in the St Vincente and El Camino Real (Tamarando back on synthetic).

A healthy Shared Belief is an absolute terror on synthetic at this stage. If his form translates to dirt, this is a very exciting horse. There are a lot of "ifs" between his physical setback, the distance, and the surface, but even if it turns out he's better on synthetic, he's still a very exciting prospect long term. As I said earlier, the Candy Rides can often handle dirt just fine. Candy Boy handled dirt just fine last week. Hoping he stays healthy and comes back strong!

[taxicab]

He stayed in the barn. As I noted in the first post - Candy Ride's offspring notoriously have bad feet. They can't get his feet right. I hope it is not a long term issue.

So it's their feet.
I always wondered.
Those Candy Ride's just don't seem to last.
They look great for a couple, then they disappear.
No foot.
No horse.

[Some_One]

So it's their feet.
I always wondered.
Those Candy Ride's just don't seem to last.
They look great for a couple, then they disappear.
No foot.
No horse.

Because Candy Ride had very bad feet himself, supposedly there were many who passed on buying him because of the feet issue before he came to the US.

[menifee]

http://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/Eclipse-winner-Shared-Belief-moved-to-heal-foot-5271546.php


They moved him to Golden Gate - still can't get his feet right. Didn't like Santa Anita's dirt track according to Hollendorfer. This is a shame because he is an ultra talented horse, but Candy Ride's feet issues are difficult to deal with.

[classhandicapper]

http://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/Eclipse-winner-Shared-Belief-moved-to-heal-foot-5271546.php


They moved him to Golden Gate - still can't get his feet right. Didn't like Santa Anita's dirt track according to Hollendorfer. This is a shame because he is an ultra talented horse, but Candy Ride's feet issues are difficult to deal with.

Big bummer. I guess that's it for him as far as any Triple Crown races go. Maybe they can make the Preakness, but even that will start to seem unlikely soon.

[FantasticDan]

Officially off the derby trail.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/83811/shared-belief-confirmed-off-ky-derby-trail

This thread should be in triple crown forum..

[TheEdge07]

SB dam was finished after 5 races started with promise

Video Santa Anita (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Track&trk=SA&cy=USA)1/6/20013 Optional Claiming 7http://www.equibase.com/profiles/images/chart.png (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?BORP=P&STYLE=EQB&DAY=D&tid=SA&dt=01/06/2001&ctry=USA&race=3) Hollywood Park (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Track&trk=HOL&cy=USA)11/23/20005 Optional Claiming DNFhttp://www.equibase.com/profiles/images/chart.png (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?BORP=P&STYLE=EQB&DAY=D&tid=HOL&dt=11/23/2000&ctry=USA&race=5) Santa Anita (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Track&trk=SA&cy=USA)10/13/20007 Optional Claiming 2http://www.equibase.com/profiles/images/chart.png (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?BORP=P&STYLE=EQB&DAY=D&tid=SA&dt=10/13/2000&ctry=USA&race=7) Del Mar (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Track&trk=DMR&cy=USA)8/18/20006 Maiden Special Weight 1http://www.equibase.com/profiles/images/chart.png (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?BORP=P&STYLE=EQB&DAY=D&tid=DMR&dt=08/18/2000&ctry=USA&race=6) Del Mar (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Track&trk=DMR&cy=USA)8/5/20004 Maiden Special Weight 4http://www.equibase.com/profiles/images/chart.png (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?BORP=P&STYLE=EQB&DAY=D&tid=DMR&dt=08/05/2000&ctry=USA&race=4)

[menifee]

What a shame - the feet got to him. Don't know how anyone could have bet this horse in the derby futures pool.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I had a paltry $6 to win on Shared Belief in pool 1 (32-1), since I thought he had a little value back in November. I only bet pool 1 in the Derby Futures.

I'll just add him to the list of ponies I've jinxed over the years with future bets, including Grand Canyon (died from laminitis before the Derby) and Secret Hello (made 3YO debut after the Derby). The 2YO I've ever been the most pumped about, Vindication, was not worth a futures bet but got knocked off the Derby Trail due to injury and retired.

You can't get too attached to these buggers early.