Handicapping newbie

[Joshann]

Please remember that I am a novice handicapper and am just learning the ropes.

I am trying to place win bets on my picks only if my pick is getting what I consider to be the right odds (i.e where I think there is an overlay), but I am having a great deal of difficulty with this. Here is my problem: I do not live near a track, so I am betting online. I live in Texas, so I have to use off shore sites. What is happening is that the odds are typically changing so much between the time I have to place my wager and the final odds that my pick very often winds up with unfavorable odds to me. For example, let's say that I have determined that I will place a win bet on my pick if his odds are 2-1 or greater. I have to place my bet at one or two minutes to post or the site won't take my bet. So at one minute to post, my horse is 2-1, so I make the bet. But then I find out that the final odds wound up being 1-1. So I actually wound up making a bet when I shouldn't have. This is happening to me all the time, and I have no idea of what to do about it.

If anyone could give me some pointers, I would GREATLY appreciate it!

[acorn54]

the best i can tell you is to que your conditional wager at the odds you want and cancel as the last three or four horses enter the starting gate if the odds change and they are no longer acceptable to you.

[cj]

Please remember that I am a novice handicapper and am just learning the ropes.

I am trying to place win bets on my picks only if my pick is getting what I consider to be the right odds (i.e where I think there is an overlay), but I am having a great deal of difficulty with this. Here is my problem: I do not live near a track, so I am betting online. I live in Texas, so I have to use off shore sites. What is happening is that the odds are typically changing so much between the time I have to place my wager and the final odds that my pick very often winds up with unfavorable odds to me. For example, let's say that I have determined that I will place a win bet on my pick if his odds are 2-1 or greater. I have to place my bet at one or two minutes to post or the site won't take my bet. So at one minute to post, my horse is 2-1, so I make the bet. But then I find out that the final odds wound up being 1-1. So I actually wound up making a bet when I shouldn't have. This is happening to me all the time, and I have no idea of what to do about it.

If anyone could give me some pointers, I would GREATLY appreciate it!

Limit your bets to 5-1 and up...much more likely these go up than down late. At 2-1 or below, just the opposite.

[Joshann]

the best i can tell you is to que your conditional wager at the odds you want and cancel as the last three or four horses enter the starting gate if the odds change and they are no longer acceptable to you.

Thanks, but I have not found an off shore site that will allow me to place bets that close to post time. If I wait until any horses are in the starting gate, the site won't let me place any wagers.

[Stillriledup]

Get really good at predicting odds and how the public will play.

Also, look at horizontals going forward......if a horse is a heavy favorite in the pick 3 probables or pick 4 or something like that, and he's sitting up there at 3-1 with 5 MTP, you should be able to predict that you're going to get closer to 8-5 than you will 3-1.

Also, if you see 2-1 on a horse who is a legit even money shot, other people are also going to think 2-1 is good value. I know this may sound odd, but you almost want your pick to be a "bad price" with 1 or 2 MTP so the other horses will get "Corrected" and your horse will travel UP in price and not the other way.

[thaskalos]

Thanks, but I have not found an off shore site that will allow me to place bets that close to post time. If I wait until any horses are in the starting gate, the site won't let me place any wagers.

It's true that you are facing a certain disadvantage when you use an off-shore site...but don't feel too bad. We face the same disadvantage even though we use local wagering sites. This avalanche of late money that you've mentioned often shows up too late for even us to react to it.

Take solace in the fact that you also have certain advantages when you bet off-shore. Your own bets are not reflected in the mutuel pools...so they don't adversely affect the payoffs that you get. You also probably get a decent rebate. :ThmbUp:

[Joshann]

Get really good at predicting odds and how the public will play.

Also, look at horizontals going forward......if a horse is a heavy favorite in the pick 3 probables or pick 4 or something like that, and he's sitting up there at 3-1 with 5 MTP, you should be able to predict that you're going to get closer to 8-5 than you will 3-1.

Also, if you see 2-1 on a horse who is a legit even money shot, other people are also going to think 2-1 is good value. I know this may sound odd, but you almost want your pick to be a "bad price" with 1 or 2 MTP so the other horses will get "Corrected" and your horse will travel UP in price and not the other way.

That makes sense. Thanks!

[Joshann]

It's true that you are facing a certain disadvantage when you use an off-shore site...but don't feel too bad. We face the same disadvantage even though we use local wagering sites. This avalanche of late money that you've mentioned often shows up too late for even us to react to it.

Take solace in the fact that you also have certain advantages when you bet off-shore. Your own bets are not reflected in the mutuel pools...so they don't adversely affect the payoffs that you get. You also probably get a decent rebate. :ThmbUp:

Thanks! :)

[JJMartin]

I do all my work according to the M/L (as a limiting factor, not all encompassing) and have tested this way for years. For flat win bets the m/l fav is an automatic non-play. I don't watch the tote board at all. If you can find a way to be profitable like this, maybe that could serve as a solution.

[Robert Goren]

You have to figure the odds will go down on your bets because most of the time if the bet wins, the odds will have gone down if the odds are under 7/2. The whales crush the short priced horses that look good on paper. It is the world we live in now.

[JustRalph]

Welcome to the world of horse racing. Every once in a while the odds actually go up on your horse. Normally on longer price horses than your example. Beating the low priced favs with horses from 9/2 to 9-1 can result in a favorable odds move sometimes.

These situations are few and far between nowadays

[Joshann]

I do all my work according to the M/L (as a limiting factor, not all encompassing) and have tested this way for years. For flat win bets the m/l fav is an automatic non-play. I don't watch the tote board at all. If you can find a way to be profitable like this, maybe that could serve as a solution.

Hmmmm... I'll have to think about that. Thanks!

[Joshann]

You have to figure the odds will go down on your bets because most of the time if the bet wins, the odds will have gone down if the odds are under 7/2. The whales crush the short priced horses that look good on paper. It is the world we live in now.


Welcome to the world of horse racing. Every once in a while the odds actually go up on your horse. Normally on longer price horses than your example. Beating the low priced favs with horses from 9/2 to 9-1 can result in a favorable odds move sometimes.

These situations are few and far between nowadays

Thanks to you both!

[JustRalph]

Hmmmm... I'll have to think about that. Thanks!

Be careful using the morning line. Some tracks have a monkey tossing dice to create the morning line. You have to learn which tracks set a decent line. Since you're new, be forewarned some places care very little about the accuracy of the ML

[davew]

Be careful using the morning line. Some tracks have a monkey tossing dice to create the morning line. You have to learn which tracks set a decent line. Since you're new, be forewarned some places care very little about the accuracy of the ML

Also keep in mind that the morning line is some track employee prediction of what the odds will close at - not who they think has the best chance(s) of winning. This person may be very good and know the tracks horses, stables, jockeys... or may be an intern substitute because the regular person is taking a day off.

[lamboguy]

i have been watching Hong Kong racing. you hardly ever see the odds board budge from 12 minutes to post right straight through to the bell and after the bell.

Your favorite ADW will start taking bets and stream video there sometime this January. they are only going to be running twice a week with large field sizes and big wagering pools with plenty of different exotic bets if you choose to bet that way.

[Some_One]

i have been watching Hong Kong racing. you hardly ever see the odds board budge from 12 minutes to post right straight through to the bell and after the bell.

Your favorite ADW will start taking bets and stream video there sometime this January. they are only going to be running twice a week with large field sizes and big wagering pools with plenty of different exotic bets if you choose to bet that way.

You must be watching a different Hong Kong, quite often a couple of times on a card you get a 'brown lamp' where the odds drop 50% and a much of 'green lights' (down 25%). Also the odds cycle every 15 seconds in the minutes leading up to a race

BTW Where did you hear about the January return?

[lamboguy]

You must be watching a different Hong Kong, quite often a couple of times on a card you get a 'brown lamp' where the odds drop 50% and a much of 'green lights' (down 25%). Also the odds cycle every 15 seconds in the minutes leading up to a race
en

BTW Where did you hear about the January return?i heard from xpressbet.

i have watched a few weeks and didn't know what those lights were all about, but i think that the big odds changes occur quite early in the betting cycle and so far i have not noticed any drastic changes after the horses have left the gate

[Some_One]

i heard from xpressbet.

i have watched a few weeks and didn't know what those lights were all about, but i think that the big odds changes occur quite early in the betting cycle and so far i have not noticed any drastic changes after the horses have left the gate

Guess I need to check with HPI up here.

As for the after the off, because of the 15 sec cycle, not much money left to capture in the final flash vs in America where you have the 1 minute cycle and it seems all the money comes in that last minute.

[Fingal]

Get really good at predicting odds and how the public will play.

Also, look at horizontals going forward......if a horse is a heavy favorite in the pick 3 probables or pick 4 or something like that, and he's sitting up there at 3-1 with 5 MTP, you should be able to predict that you're going to get closer to 8-5 than you will 3-1.

Also, if you see 2-1 on a horse who is a legit even money shot, other people are also going to think 2-1 is good value. I know this may sound odd, but you almost want your pick to be a "bad price" with 1 or 2 MTP so the other horses will get "Corrected" and your horse will travel UP in price and not the other way.

Being able to read odds is one of the great advantages a bettor can have.
Personally, I've come to gravitate to the 5 to 10/1 horse as the public will either glom on to the favorite & 2nd choice or you'll have those who bet the 15, 20/1 shot looking for the big score.

[pondman]

You also need consider the size of the pool. Smaller pools are much more difficult to predict.