Florida State vs Auburn, BCS Title Game Jan 6th, 2014

[Stillriledup]

Nobody giving Auburn a shot......and rightly so?

The WAY they beat Alabama you would think that they are over the top emotionally, hard to imagine they're going to be able to even compete in this game.

Unless, you know something that the pundits don't know?

[Robert Goren]

A month between games changes teams. That being said, from what I have seen, I think Auburn is a fair amount better that Fla St.

[Valuist]

If Alabama and Auburn played nine more times, Auburn might win one. Maybe two if they were lucky. Florida State is a 9 pt favorite for a reason.

[cj]

A month between games changes teams. That being said, from what I have seen, I think Auburn is a fair amount better that Fla St.

If you really believe that you can make a huge score betting the money line.

[burnsy]

Nobody giving Auburn a shot......and rightly so?



Unless, you know something that the pundits don't know?


I don't know much about College football, but i know enough that the Atlantic division sucks compared to who Auburn played. They had to get past Alabama, Missouri, LSU and Texas A + M.....meanwhile Fla. State is beating up on Duke?

The pundits just hate to admit the SEC is far superior...I noticed all the talk died down about Ohio State after saturday. This could be way closer than they are saying, Robert Goren may be right about Auburn being better.

[Dahoss2002]

If Auburn can rush the ball as well as they have in their last 2 games they win.

[TJDave]

If Alabama and Auburn played nine more times, Auburn might win one. Maybe two if they were lucky. Florida State is a 9 pt favorite for a reason.

I don't think there is much difference between FSU, Auburn and the rest of the top ten with the exception of Alabama. Alabama knows this. They F'ed up and lost to Auburn. What they will do to Oklahoma because of it will be an embarrassment.

[precocity]

Florida State will destroy Auburn by 4 tds :cool:

[DigitalDownsJoe]

A month between games changes teams. That being said, from what I have seen, I think Auburn is a fair amount better that Fla St.

I am from Florida and am a Nole Fan, so my opinion is slightly biased. I will however explain a couple key factors that alot of people who dont watch them much probably dont know. They are a complete team. They have the best field goal kicker in the nation. I believe he is like 22-23 or something and made all close to 100 PAT's. He broke the all time ACC scoring record this season. Winston has rode the bench in the 4th quarter most of the season along with many other starters. Which leads me to my next point. Our 3rd string RB(williams) is equal to or better then our 1st string RB. He averages almost 9 yards a carry. Both our corners will start in the NFL, and we have shut down every "running team" we have faced. We destroyed every team we have played. I agree the SEC is the best overall conference. It is sad to me that you guys are not sending your best team. Alabama is a better team and lost on that given day. I would say South Carolina is also better.

I give Auburn a lot of credit. They squeeked by in 2 games by sheer luck, however they put themselves in the position to win and they did it. Cant deny they arent a gutsy team. On a talent perspective, I dont think it is even close FSU is the better team. We have no weakness on offense or D. Weapons everywhere you look and on the bench. Bejamin has come on to to be Megtronlike with speed and size. No one can cover him. We have 2 other stud WR and a great TE. 3 good backs. I just dont see Auburn being able to run the ball on us and that is their strength. They are terrible in the secondary and Winston will pick them apart. If they can keep it close in the 4th they have a chance, but I dont think that will happen. FSU 41- Auburn 23

[PhantomOnTour]

What's so frickin great about Alabama !?
Folks love to love them, and are silly enough to still call them the best.
Their D this year has been vulnerable...everyone forget the 42 that Manziel and A&M put on them?

Auburn was not lucky - they came back from a 21-7 deficit and ran the ball up Bama's ass...they did exactly what Bama expected them to do and they couldn't stop them.
If the FG isn't returned for a TD then the game goes to overtime...that does not equal a Bama win or signify Bama as the better team.

Get off their jock, geez.

If Auburn wins the BCS Title Game should we vote Bama as the champions?
After all, everyone knows they're a better team than Auburn, right? :rolleyes:

[Robert Goren]

What's so frickin great about Alabama !?
Folks love to love them, and are silly enough to still call them the best.
Their D this year has been vulnerable...everyone forget the 42 that Manziel and A&M put on them?

Auburn was not lucky - they came back from a 21-7 deficit and ran the ball up Bama's ass...they did exactly what Bama expected them to do and they couldn't stop them.
If the FG isn't returned for a TD then the game goes to overtime...that does not equal a Bama win or signify Bama as the better team.

Get off their jock, geez.

If Auburn wins the BCS Title Game should we vote Bama as the champions?
After all, everyone knows they're a better team than Auburn, right? :rolleyes:A pretty strong case could be made for that if Auburn wins, but Bama won't get it. They might a few votes though. What is the odds line on the Tigers anyway. I might have to figure out a way to bet it.

[PhantomOnTour]

Say what?
No way bruthaman.

We all know the Pats were better than the Giants in both Super Bowl losses, so let's give them the Lombardi Trophy :rolleyes:
twaaaaaaa....

[PhantomOnTour]

I don't think there is much difference between FSU, Auburn and the rest of the top ten with the exception of Alabama. Alabama knows this. They F'ed up and lost to Auburn. What they will do to Oklahoma because of it will be an embarrassment.
Hardly - Bama seems a bit flat so far (although as I type this they are gaining some momentum)...their D just isn't the stifling unit it has been in years past.
Sooners have 31pts with 7mins left in the 3rd

[cj]

Prediction...

OU about to receive a punt with 14:30 to go and up 7. If they don't score, they lose.

[cj]

TD Sooners...what a drive, recovering from a 1st and 30.

[PhantomOnTour]

Anyone still think the Tide was better than Auburn?
Gimme a break...Alabama has come out flat in bowl games before, esp when they lost out on a chance at the BCS title game.
They don't seem too motivated to win any consolation prizes...remember the Sugar Bowl vs Utah a few years back?

[cj]

Anyone still think the Tide was better than Auburn?
Gimme a break...Alabama has come out flat in bowl games before, esp when they lost out on a chance at the BCS title game.
They don't seem too motivated to win any consolation prizes...remember the Sugar Bowl vs Utah a few years back?

Utah was very good that year, but yes, Bama wasn't exactly hyped up.

[PhantomOnTour]

Utah was very good that year, but yes, Bama wasn't exactly hyped up.
Utah was up 21-0 in the 1st quarter

Bama ain't dead yet in this game...McCarron needs to show his leadership and get them a TD. But his O line had better protect him...they have been overrun by the Sooners.

[PhantomOnTour]

Wow...that Yeldon fellow had better get comfy in his seat because he's now the backup tailback for Alabama

[Dahoss2002]

Now all the Bammers will be saying Tide would beat Oklahoma 9/10 times. Congrats to the Sooners !! Big Game Bob won him a goodun!

[precocity]

Auburn Tigers + 10

over and under -- 69

Florida State -10


anybody throwing down on this game?

taken florida state straight up!!!!! :cool:

[Bettowin]

I just bet FSU -9 for quite a bit.

[Stillriledup]

Fla State getting crushed at the windows, spread up to 10.5

[precocity]

Fla State getting crushed at the windows, spread up to 10.5
forgot about this thread mr bump sru! :cool:

[ManU918]

taken florida state straight up!!!!! :cool:

Your laying -400 on the ML or taking them -10.5?

[precocity]

Your laying -400 on the ML or taking them -10.5?

where I go just like vegas got FS-10 FOR 3 DIMES PLUS 300$ VIG!

[ManU918]

where I go just like vegas got FS-10 FOR 3 DIMES PLUS 300$ VIG!

When you are betting with the line every book in this world has vig... I just didn't know if you were betting them minus the points or ml...

[Robert Goren]

I don't bet football anymore, but if I did I would be all over Auburn. I have seen both these teams on TV and Auburn just looks better.

[PhantomOnTour]

Besides the gimme last year with Bama over Notre Dame, I am horrible at picking the winner of the BCS Title Game.

I like Auburn...to me, this story has already been written, this race has already been run.
Auburn is like a horse getting a dream trip in the biggest race of his life. Holes are opening up at the right time, jocks are leaving the rail open for them, and the speed is coming back to them.
They are full of run.
The jock, Malzahn, is just steering at this point.

[precocity]

Besides the gimme last year with Bama over Notre Dame, I am horrible at picking the winner of the BCS Title Game.

I like Auburn...to me, this story has already been written, this race has already been run.
Auburn is like a horse getting a dream trip in the biggest race of his life. Holes are opening up at the right time, jocks are leaving the rail open for them, and the speed is coming back to them.
They are full of run.
The jock, Malzahn, is just steering at this point.

are user names went at it in the day and were grade 1 winners and great horses now are names battle again war FS!!!!!!!!

[wiffleball whizz]

Hugel lay on a noles money line along with lots of open ml parlays

Auburn is a 4 loss team in my opinion


Fla st 52 auburn 17

At the half it will be 23-9

[ManU918]

Auburn +11 big.... Auburn +310 ML small.

[PhantomOnTour]

Jimbo needs to change things up soon - Malzahn is outcoaching him badly right now.

[PhantomOnTour]

Long way to go - but this is a clinic so far

[horses4courses]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BabT6uICQAAvRUY.jpg

[precocity]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BabT6uICQAAvRUY.jpg
:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[precocity]

FS got the jitters they will settle down?

[ManU918]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BabT6uICQAAvRUY.jpg

Hes in Vegas watching with a friend and didn't hedge (Almost an impossible hedge at the price)... He had his Dad put it in for him when he was on vacation last year.

[PhantomOnTour]

FS got the jitters they will settle down?
They need halftime to come quickly.
Afraid if they fall further behind that Winston will make a mistake and turn it over.

[wiffleball whizz]

FS got the jitters they will settle down?



Yes when it's 28-3 auburn

[precocity]

Hes in Vegas watching with a friend and didn't hedge (Almost an impossible hedge at the price)... He had his Dad put it in for him when he was on vacation last year.

IM FU&&ED? :confused:

[precocity]

IM FU&&ED? :confused:
REPEAT!!!

[PhantomOnTour]

They need halftime to come quickly.
Afraid if they fall further behind that Winston will make a mistake and turn it over.
Rookie QB's don't win the Super Bowl and freshmen QB's don't win the National Championship

[precocity]

6300 BY MY FRIEND? :bang:

[PhantomOnTour]

Got a game now.
FSU needs one break and they are back in this.
Going to be a good 2nd half...this ain't over yet

[horses4courses]

Hes in Vegas watching with a friend and didn't hedge (Almost an impossible hedge at the price)... He had his Dad put it in for him when he was on vacation last year.

At halftime, he's in a position to hedge.
Bet $10K on Fla St -7.5 for the second half

Worse case scenario: win $10k

Better scenario: win $39K

Best scenario: win $60K with a middle

[ManU918]

At halftime, he's in a position to hedge.
Bet $10K on Fla St -7.5 for the second half

Worse case scenario: win $10k

Better scenario: win $39K

Best scenario: win $60K with a middle

Sure halftime is a different animal... I was talking about prior to the start. He's in the best spot right now with Auburn having a nice lead... But he said throughout he wasn't hedging...

[horses4courses]

The Greek has -7.5 -145 now, so not as good.
He might have to lay 8.5 - still a shot at a middle, though.
9 and 10 in one half of football aren't too shabby.
I know I would if I were in his shoes. Lock up $10K.
Too great a futures bet to come up with zero.

[precocity]

FT QB PLAYING LIKE A LITTLE KID IN THE WALMART TOY DEPARTMENT!!! BEITCH!!! :mad:

[precocity]

congratz H4C WELL DONE MY MAN! wish nothing but success and happiness.not to harp but what I DID TODAY WAS JUST A NORMAL PLAY! STILL UP FOR THE YEAR BIG TIME JUSTASK WHIZZ?????

[RXB]

What a game this is.

[horses4courses]

What a game this is.

Absolutely.
Classic stuff.

[RXB]

Incredible. You will never see a more exciting game.

[RXB]

And I should add, not just an exciting game but a well played game by both sides.

[PhantomOnTour]

Great comeback by the Seminoles.
Just when I thought Winston was going to lose his composure he made some plays and regained his confidence.
The fake punt was a massive momentum changer. Led to a TD at the end of the first half and gave FSU some belief.
That was all they needed.
Credit to Auburn for getting up off the canvas after the kickoff return by FSU.
And max credit to Winston, a freshman, for answering.

Great game - the SEC has been dethroned

[precocity]

Great comeback by the Seminoles.
Just when I thought Winston was going to lose his composure he made some plays and regained his confidence.
The fake punt was a massive momentum changer. Led to a TD at the end of the first half and gave FSU some belief.
That was all they needed.
Credit to Auburn for getting up off the canvas after the kickoff return by FSU.
And max credit to Winston, a freshman, for answering.

Great game - the SEC has been dethroned

OK WERE ALL BETTORS ON HERE WHATEVEVR? GREAT GAME LOST MY AZZ! :cool:

[precocity]

once I knew I was out i wanted auburn to win? I LOST NO DOG IN THIS FIGHT?

[Greyfox]

Wow!

[precocity]

Absolutely.
Classic stuff.
DID YOU WIN? OR IT WHAT STRAIGHT UP?

[Stillriledup]

Scored too soon. Both teams.

[NJ Stinks]

The pass interference ruined it. Officials should not be deciding the National Championship.

Still, Auburn covered so I'm good with that.

[PhantomOnTour]

I didn't bet the game - I don't bet anything but horses.
I just thought Auburn would win

[RXB]

The pass interference ruined it. Officials should not be deciding the National Championship.

Still, Auburn covered so I'm good with that.

Come on. He was all over that receiver. Might as well not have rules if you don't call that.

[horses4courses]

DID YOU WIN? OR IT WHAT STRAIGHT UP?

I didn't bet the game.

[Stillriledup]

Come on. He was all over that receiver. Might as well not have rules if you don't call that.
I agree with NJS, you don't want to decide the game on a play like that. There were very few penalties called in the game, if you go back and watch carefully, you'll see holdings on almost every play, dozens of things that could have been called, were not, including multiple PIs scattered all thru the game. If you want to play the "if its a penalty you have to call it" game, you have to call everything. You can't pick and choose.

[RXB]

I agree with NJS, you don't want to decide the game on a play like that. There were very few penalties called in the game, if you go back and watch carefully, you'll see holdings on almost every play, dozens of things that could have been called, were not, including multiple PIs scattered all thru the game. If you want to play the "if its a penalty you have to call it" game, you have to call everything. You can't pick and choose.

Patently ridiculous. That was as blatant as PI gets.

[NJ Stinks]

Patently ridiculous. That was as blatant as PI gets.


I disagree. Blatant pass interference is when the defender pushes or holds the receiver so he can't catch the ball. From what I saw the defender was trying to knock the ball down with one arm extended in front of the receiver.

One thing I heard on TV was that the defender was beat on the play - hence the interference. IMO the defender couldn't have been any closer to the receiver if he tried. In fact, if anything, the defender was too close to the receiver and that led to the pass interference call.

Anyway, RXB, my main point is that it was a great game that didn't deserve to end that way.

[cj]

That PI will be called 99 times out of 100.

ps...how did they miss that horse collar?

[PhantomOnTour]

That PI will be called 99 times out of 100.

ps...how did they miss that horse collar?
It was a combination horse collar and face mask

[TheEdge07]

Missed chip shot from Auburn Fg kicker was a huge difference..Final score 34-31

[Rookies]

That PI will be called 99 times out of 100.

ps...how did they miss that horse collar?

They put the whistle away in SF-GB on Sunday. Multiple drag down holdings were 'invisible'.

That horse collar stopped the TD. How that wasn't called by dude standing right there, is beyond me CJ.

[Stillriledup]

I'm not a college FB expert, i don't watch all that many games, i'll see the odd game here and there and i'll watch the "big games" and whatnut....here's a question for you who follow this sport closely.

How did Winston win the Heisman? He doesnt seem to be in the same class as a Manziel or even Trevor Knight, who looked like a serious player the other day, he's not as good as they are, i wouldnt put him in the top 5 QBs in college FB, he has deer in headlights expressions on his face, he has an odd running gait and doesnt seem all that athletic, maybe i don't know what i'm looking at, but he doesnt seem to be in the same class as Manziel or Knight and yet, he sort of won the Heisman easily.

I was under the impression that the Heisman was an individual award and not a team award, but it seems like being in the right program and on the right team got him the win even though he's not even close to being the best player.

[Robert Fischer]

I'm not a college FB expert, i don't watch all that many games, i'll see the odd game here and there and i'll watch the "big games" and whatnut....here's a question for you who follow this sport closely.

How did Winston win the Heisman? He doesnt seem to be in the same class as a Manziel or even Trevor Knight, who looked like a serious player the other day, he's not as good as they are, i wouldnt put him in the top 5 QBs in college FB, he has deer in headlights expressions on his face, he has an odd running gait and doesnt seem all that athletic, maybe i don't know what i'm looking at, but he doesnt seem to be in the same class as Manziel or Knight and yet, he sort of won the Heisman easily.

I was under the impression that the Heisman was an individual award and not a team award, but it seems like being in the right program and on the right team got him the win even though he's not even close to being the best player.

I didn't see the Championship game, but he doesn't seem to be a standout on film from what I've looked at.

The best thing he offers, seems to be leadership.

I agree he isn't as skilled as some of the other QBs, but he is a stud college player. These type of 'stud' players are celebrated at the college level and culture.

He's also a freshman, and while it will be hard to improve statistically over the numbers he got this year in 50-14 type of wins, he can improve some in terms of skill.

So far the press has named him the 2015 #1 draft pick, but I don't see him as an elite pro QB. It's possible he could be a leader-type who guys love to play for and could be OK in the right situation.

[burnsy]

Not a college football expert either. But i think he rode the hype of beating inferior comp. The only game i bet in college was last night. I liked Auburn 3 weeks ago when it was 8 1/2, there was another thread on this and stated such.......at 10 1/2 it was a no brainer.

[Boris]

I disagree. Blatant pass interference is when the defender pushes or holds the receiver so he can't catch the ball. From what I saw the defender was trying to knock the ball down with one arm extended in front of the receiver.


http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/92761/florida-state-seminoles-win-bcs-title-over-auburn-tigers

Here's a video so you can take a look at his other arm. Scroll to the 13 minute mark. If you're lucky, you'll get the Subway commercial with with the hot blonde.

Not the most blatant PI in history, but I don't know how you let it go. It's a touchdown if he doesn't hook him with his left arm.

[PhantomOnTour]

The PI call wasn't a borderline call, so it had to be made regardless of when it occured in the game.
If the penalty were a little more in doubt I may be inclined to agree that the ref should swallow the whistle.
In my opinion that wasn't the case here.

Besides - on the big catch and run by Greene a few plays earlier the refs missed a pretty obvious horse collar and face mask on the tackle.

[Stillriledup]

http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/92761/florida-state-seminoles-win-bcs-title-over-auburn-tigers

Here's a video so you can take a look at his other arm. Scroll to the 13 minute mark. If you're lucky, you'll get the Subway commercial with with the hot blonde.

Not the most blatant PI in history, but I don't know how you let it go. It's a touchdown if he doesn't hook him with his left arm.

A penalty doesnt have to be blatant, its either a penalty or not. I'm sure if you watched every play of the game, you would see some sort of holding on almost every play, you would also see quite a few DBs interfering with the receiver that went uncalled. I guess the question is this. Do you call them ALL or do you pick and choose?

[NJ Stinks]

http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/92761/florida-state-seminoles-win-bcs-title-over-auburn-tigers

Here's a video so you can take a look at his other arm. Scroll to the 13 minute mark. If you're lucky, you'll get the Subway commercial with with the hot blonde.

Not the most blatant PI in history, but I don't know how you let it go. It's a touchdown if he doesn't hook him with his left arm.


Thanks for the link, Boris. I still don't think the defender was beat on the play but there is no doubt that his left arm was the culprit.

[iceknight]

http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/92761/florida-state-seminoles-win-bcs-title-over-auburn-tigers

Here's a video so you can take a look at his other arm. Scroll to the 13 minute mark. If you're lucky, you'll get the Subway commercial with with the hot blonde.

Not the most blatant PI in history, but I don't know how you let it go. It's a touchdown if he doesn't hook him with his left arm. Thanks for the link Boris. the PI calls seems legit.
I was nt lucky and did not get Subway, got a lousy Home Depot commercial..But since you teased..I had to search.. got something else here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgIc8wBqGxg

[Valuist]

I know this is hindsight, and RBs are always taught to try for the touchdown. But what if Tre Mason took himself down at the 1 yard line? Auburn trailed 27-24 at the time with 1:19 to play, which is still plenty of time. First and goal from the one, take another knee. Take two shots at the TD and if you are at the 1 foot line or so, try for the TD on 4th down. Otherwise take it to OT. But the key here is really milking the clock so FSU doesn't have time to come back. I'm sure most will disagree with this philosophy, but nowadays it seems like whoever has the ball last (provided they have at least a minute to play) ends up winning.

[Bettowin]

I know this is hindsight, and RBs are always taught to try for the touchdown. But what if Tre Mason took himself down at the 1 yard line? Auburn trailed 27-24 at the time with 1:19 to play, which is still plenty of time. First and goal from the one, take another knee. Take two shots at the TD and if you are at the 1 foot line or so, try for the TD on 4th down. Otherwise take it to OT. But the key here is really milking the clock so FSU doesn't have time to come back. I'm sure most will disagree with this philosophy, but nowadays it seems like whoever has the ball last (provided they have at least a minute to play) ends up winning.

When Auburn scored so quick I said there was more than enough time for FSU to score. In hindsight, the hero of the game should be the FSU defender who couldn't make the tackle. If he takes him down Auburn probably runs it 2 or 3 more times to get the TD.

[Valuist]

When Auburn scored so quick I said there was more than enough time for FSU to score. In hindsight, the hero of the game should be the FSU defender who couldn't make the tackle. If he takes him down Auburn probably runs it 2 or 3 more times to get the TD.

Exactly. And FSU doesn't have the 1:19 remaining to drive for the go ahead touchdown.

I wouldn't advocate this in every situation, but look how many points FSU scored all year. Auburn's D had a few games were they were torched.

[PhantomOnTour]

And if Auburn managed to botch the snap or fumble or miss the FG (their kicker missed a very easy one earlier) how are you gonna explain that to your fans?

No way, no how do I want my RB to go down at the 1yd line in that situation.
Not in college - too many nerves and screw ups to take that chance.

[Stillriledup]

I know this is hindsight, and RBs are always taught to try for the touchdown. But what if Tre Mason took himself down at the 1 yard line? Auburn trailed 27-24 at the time with 1:19 to play, which is still plenty of time. First and goal from the one, take another knee. Take two shots at the TD and if you are at the 1 foot line or so, try for the TD on 4th down. Otherwise take it to OT. But the key here is really milking the clock so FSU doesn't have time to come back. I'm sure most will disagree with this philosophy, but nowadays it seems like whoever has the ball last (provided they have at least a minute to play) ends up winning.

This is EXACTLY to the LETTER what i told someone yesterday. The proper strategy is to go down at the one inch line, take 2 knees and then have two shots to power the ball from the 1 inch line. No possible way that Mason wouldnt have scored a TD with 2 shots to get 1 inch. Zero chance FSU stops him for no gain both times.

The only thing you have to worry about is a false start penalty...but, if you want to win, you have to "coach em up" and your players have to know not to false start.

[rastajenk]

I'm with Phantom. Scores are not guaranteed; get 'em while you can.

[Valuist]

I'm with Phantom. Scores are not guaranteed; get 'em while you can.

Stops aren't guaranteed either. And Auburn found that out in the final 1:19. if FSU had 30 seconds or less to generate the drive, they don't win.

[RXB]

This is EXACTLY to the LETTER what i told someone yesterday. The proper strategy is to go down at the one inch line, take 2 knees and then have two shots to power the ball from the 1 inch line. No possible way that Mason wouldnt have scored a TD with 2 shots to get 1 inch. Zero chance FSU stops him for no gain both times.

The only thing you have to worry about is a false start penalty...but, if you want to win, you have to "coach em up" and your players have to know not to false start.

It might sound nice in a theoretical sense but I can't believe that anybody really thinks that the coach can tell these kids, "okay, if you get loose, fall down at the one-inch line." They have enough to contend with and think about as it is. Are you sending in plays that also include moment-by-moment instructions on whether to score or fall down inside the one-yard line? Also, do you seriously expect that the RB can fall at precisely the one-inch line and that the QB is going to "take 2 knees" both at the one-inch line?

Now, suggesting a kneel on first down is foolish; and suggesting kneeling also on second down is insane. For starters, you'd actually be going backwards. Plus, you are overrating the likelihood of scoring on any given play down there. Teams do occasionally go unsuccessful after first-and-goal from the 1; it's not a frequent occurrence but it's not a rarity, either. The expected percentages are about 88% TD, 7% FG, 5% zippo. Now imagine giving away two downs.

I think that the probability of winning was not much different either way. And besides, during a live game there's only so much that a coach-- especially a collegiate coach-- can reasonably expect to control and can reasonably expect his players to consider.