Derby Contenders

[Tom]

Ok, so is Balto Star the next Holly Bull or is he wholly Bull?
Every time I see him winnning by daylight, I am reminded of countless Maiden Claiming $3,000 races I have seen at Finger Lakes over the years. I just don't see Balto doing anything in the Derby except setting it up for a closer. This is good-perhaps if Point Given has a chink in his armor (and it certainly is not an obvious one) a hot early pace will expose it and set up a $$$Bomber's stretch run. I have no problems with double digit Derby payoffs. The race is becoming interesting. I am looking very clcose now at all the so called disappointing contenders now-those that haven't peaked yet.
Tom

[ceejay]

I don't think that Balto beat very much. Pletcher was looking for a soft spot and he got one. You had to figure Balto on the front end of a track not very kind to closers in the slop.

[Tom]

I think a key handicapping note to remember in doing all of these preps is whay is the horse running today?
Is it to win a purse or to get ready for the big one?
These prepes are a good place for the second and third level 3yos to get balck type and pick up a purse. The horses going for the Derby may not be all out opt win the minor purses.
One thing that repeats every year, the AKS Derby will get a huge Beyer that no one will run back to.
Andy needs to adjust his charts for that track.

Happy easter, everyone, from one sure egg-head.

Tom

[Observer]

I'm sticking by my early choices of Point Given (even though the price will be short) and Millennium Wind for the Derby. However, I think it's great the way Balto Star has been able to go out, set solid fractions and do it so relaxed and comfortably. The key here is relaxed, whatever his times where, he did it easily and well-within himself. If the situation comes up just right, who's to say he couldn't steal this race? Don't know the possibility of that happening, but stranger things have happened.

[Tom]

I was realy impressed with his 2nd place finish-just the tune up he needed. There was no need for him to win that race-but he looked great gaining on lone speed.
The first three horses at the first call almost ran that order the whole race. Only Monarcos showed anything like a move. The Derby looks to be heavy on the early end. Point Given should be able to adapt and sit just off the pace. I am looking for the big closer to come roaring off the turn and eat up gasping quitters in the stretch.
I think the stretch will be intimidating.
A few years ago, I was walking on the training track at Saratoga-the one across the street fro the main gate.
Just looking down the stretch gave me a "tunnel" effect-the finsih line was miles away and I got tired just looking at it. I wonder if horses have that seem view and give up when they hit the stretch?
Or am I just lazy?
Anyway, it gave me a little insight into the "living creature" side of the race.
Tom

[Observer]

Point Given will definitely be able to adapt. Of any of the horses who are coming up to the Derby, Point Given has shown the most in terms of versatility. He had always shown tactical ability, but he certainly surprised many with his bold move chasing Crafty C. T. pretty much from the start in the Santa Anita Derby.

I know Point Given won't be much of a price come Derby day, but I don't expect him to be on or even very close to the pace. You might want to go back and take a look at his Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He raced well off the pace, swung way wide turning into the stretch, looking hopelessly beaten, then came flying through the lane with a powerful stretch run, just missing by the narrowest of noses. He's matured alot since then, and Gary Stevens, who was aboard for the first time that afternoon, knows him much, much better now. Point Given can be anywhere they want him to be in a race, that's what makes him so threatening. And he's got the finishing kick, regardless of where he sits throughout a race.

[bdhsheets]

Originally posted by Tom

Is it to win a purse or to get ready for the big one?
These prepes are a good place for the second and third level 3yos to get balck type and pick up a purse. The horses going for the Derby may not be all out opt win the minor purses.

One thing that repeats every year, the AKS Derby will get a huge Beyer that no one will run back to.
Andy needs to adjust his charts for that track.

Tom

I'd like a couple of pounds or gallons of whatever it is that you're drinking/smoking.

Minor purses?????? It's not until recently that the Ky Derby matched or exceeded purses offered by prep races! Churchill was getting rich (and still is) stuffing their pockets with the nomination fees. I guess that $1,000,000 offered in the Florida Derby is chump change in your world!?!

Arkee Derby runners have held their own over the years, with Lil E. Tee winning in '92 coming to mind. I believe Sunnys Halo also took the Arkee route, but not completely sure.

Regards,

bdhsheets

[bdhsheets]

Originally posted by ceejay
I don't think that Balto beat very much. Pletcher was looking for a soft spot and he got one. You had to figure Balto on the front end of a track not very kind to closers in the slop.

I hate to burst your bubble, but in an unusual card (which I liked by the way) you had route races all day long, no sprints, there were plenty of "closers" that won and filled out the top three slots. Go back and check out the charts.

Balto Star reminds me of Spend A Buck with his ability to roll on the front end effortlessly. After being gelded, he's been an incredible performer. Will he win the Derby? Don't know yet, but there will be many in the crowd with your opinion that he can't get the win on the front end. Often there will seem to be a "battle royal" developing on the front end, but one of them will bounce out in front and smoke the rest of the speed. I'm a fan of Balto Star and I'm certain to get a square price.

Regards,

bdhsheets

[ceejay]

I hate to burst your bubble, but in an unusual card (which I liked by the way) you had route races all day long, no sprints, there were plenty of "closers" that won and filled out the top three slots. Go back and check out the charts.


I know that they had several 1 mile races with short stretch runs, but I only count 3 out of 12 winners not on the lead at the top of the stretch (and 2 of them were within 1 length of the leader). In the six 1 mile races, I count four winners in first or second at the 6f call.

I didn't really pay attention to the second and third place finishers on Saturday because the horses that I had on top won so rarely!

[Tom]

By minor purses, I meant that they are not the primary goal-the Derby is and a million dollars notwithstanding, no competent trainer is going to blow his Derby chances to get the Florida Derby under his belt. Everyone can tell you who won last year's Derby, but how many kbow who won the Arkansas Derby? Or even care.
I stand by my assesment that usually, Beyer gives the Aks winner an unrealistic number.
Tom

[bdhsheets]

Tom:

You can add Grindstone to the list of Arkee Derby participants winning the Ky Derby. I'm not a big Oaklawn fan, but I like Balto Star plenty, reminds me of Spend A Buck.

May they all come back safely!

Regards,

bdhsheets