Some info from this Summer's races

[Ray2000]

17640 Harness races from May 1 to Aug 31
Comparing starters to their prior Paramutuel effort.
ROB is the fraction return on betting every starter in the group.

Starters ROB
All 144391 0.68
Class Up 23139 0.55
Class Down 13232 0.76
Driver Chg 64396 0.66
Driver Star to reg 10389 0.56
Driver Reg to Star 10340 0.80
Barn Chg 10880 0.71
Trainer Star to Reg 964 0.68
Trainer Reg to Star 915 1.00
Track Shipper 34728 0.68
Post Same 76086 0.70
Post Positive 32565 0.72
Post Neg 35740 0.59
Lasix renew 223 0.48
Lasix 1st time 1236 0.72
Lasix 2nd time 1361 0.76
Lasix Remove 252 0.51

Class move is more than ±3 TrackMaster points
Post move is more than ±2 post positions in draw
Driver and Trainer "Stars" are top 50 this yr in $$

[mrroyboy]

Ray this is incredible stuff. Anything that is less than the track take is a winning angle. Combine that with commensense handicapping, you are looking at winning. Do you have anymore stuff like this? Also more definitions like 3 up or down in class?

[CHeCK EyE]

Ray this is incredible stuff. Anything that is less than the track take is a winning angle. Combine that with commensense handicapping, you are looking at winning. Do you have anymore stuff like this? Also more definitions like 3 up or down in class?

You get the idea...

[Ray2000]

roy, checkeye
I'm doing some work on another project and needed this data set for that work.
Thought I'd post the summary here even though there's not that much new in it.

The ReturnOnBet 'Par' level is .68 for these starters so a horse switching from a regular driver in last
to a Star Driver today shows a better return (.80) compared to a switch the other way (.56)

Similar for a Regular to Star, Trainer change but only 915 horses in set so I need to do some more data mining here.

BTW the post change allows for trailers, i.e. going from 7 hole in last to 10T is a Positive Change.

Combining groups can be interesting

194 Horses starting for Star Trainer drawing good ...... 0.89
483 Horses starting for Star Trainer drawing same .......0.98
238 Horses starting for Star Trainer drawing bad ........ 1.13


but not enough horses in group to be that meaningful.....:)

[mrroyboy]

Thank you Ray. Looking forward to your results.