Aqu Pick 6 for Dec 7th.

[Stillriledup]

Parlay 90k, one winner (big surprise!) pays 22k.

[Al Gobbi]

I'm more interested about the trifecta payoff. For $1 it seemed short.

[Stillriledup]

I'm more interested about the trifecta payoff. For $1 it seemed short.

That was short also. Maybe the 50 cent tri's hurt that price, it would have beem much tougher to hit if Tri's were a buck base.

[Big Sal]

Absolutely, the lower minimum base wagers tend to deflate payoffs on impossible results.

The longshot winner Woburn was a horse who sure had some angles in his corner.

CJ has computer generated track bias ratings -- on his Internal site, which we use to make speed figure for TimeformUS, when a horse races against a tack bias it's underlined near the far right.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/1454575_10201199314057190_1756604505_n.jpg

Woburn, raced against the track bias both two and three starts back. Last time out, he broke through the gate prior to the start (a very negative factor) in a race where he was receiving lasix for the first time in what was his 16th career start.

He certainly wasn't uncompetitive on speed figures either. Only two horses in the race had a faster spotlight figure in today's race.

If you throw out his last race, where he broke through the gate, he was 1st time lasix today. He's also an AQU based horse, which has been an advantage this meet. The horses who train over this track everyday have an edge when the surface is as slow as it has been. The big volume trainers stabled there, Rudy and Jacobson, both had nice starts to this meet. A lot of little guys, too.

Still, even though the horse had a look to him, It's too hard to trust an 0-for-16 maiden who didn't project any kind of real favorable trip. Sometimes they win very bad races, like today, but those horses are generally no more than good underneath inclusions in exotics.

Still, props to the presumptive angle player who used him in the P6 to cap a massively underlaid payoff VS the parlay.

[Stillriledup]

Absolutely, the lower minimum base wagers tend to deflate payoffs on impossible results.

The longshot winner Woburn was a horse who sure had some angles in his corner.

CJ has computer generated track bias ratings -- on his Internal site, which we use to make speed figure for TimeformUS, when a horse races against a tack bias it's underlined near the far right.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/1454575_10201199314057190_1756604505_n.jpg

Woburn, raced against the track bias both two and three starts back. Last time out, he broke through the gate prior to the start (a very negative factor) in a race where he was receiving lasix for the first time in what was his 16th career start.

He certainly wasn't uncompetitive on speed figures either. Only two horses in the race had a faster spotlight figure in today's race.

If you throw out his last race, where he broke through the gate, he was 1st time lasix today. He's also an AQU based horse, which has been an advantage this meet. The horses who train over this track everyday have an edge when the surface is as slow as it has been. The big volume trainers stabled there, Rudy and Jacobson, both had nice starts to this meet. A lot of little guys, too.

Still, even though the horse had a look to him, It's too hard to trust an 0-for-16 maiden who didn't project any kind of real favorable trip. Sometimes they win very bad races, like today, but those horses are generally no more than good underneath inclusions in exotics.

Still, props to the presumptive angle player who used him in the P6 to cap a massively underlaid payoff VS the parlay.

Here's my official note on Woburn for his Oct 12th race:

"No L, nice turn time while wide, Tired, can be ok with better trip, better than looked"

Here's my comment on his Sept 14th race:

"nice move vs rail, to top of the lane with no lasix, faded, seems to be inherently sharp, i like him next time with lasix"

[Big Sal]

You don't say...

[Rise Over Run]

Here's my comment on his Sept 14th race:

"nice move vs rail, to top of the lane with no lasix, faded, seems to be inherently sharp, i like him next time with lasix"

So a horse runs 14 straight times without lasix and you're able to come up with a comment that you'll like the horse next out with lasix?

[Stillriledup]

So a horse runs 14 straight times without lasix and you're able to come up with a comment that you'll like the horse next out with lasix?

yes. I was waiting for him to get lasix. It obviously was the difference.

[the little guy]

You don't say...

As you know, he ran pretty much his usual slow race today. The biggest difference was the others fully cooperated by running a little slower. He also may have disliked the moisture in the track less than his few potentially faster rivals.

The more interesting race today was the 2nd, which came up insanely fast.

[Robert Fischer]

As you know, he ran pretty much his usual slow race today. The biggest difference was the others fully cooperated by running a little slower. He also may have disliked the moisture in the track less than his few potentially faster rivals.

The more interesting race today was the 2nd, which came up insanely fast.

That almost looked like a 2yo state bred stakes in the stretch-run.

[Big Sal]

The more interesting race today was the 2nd, which came up insanely fast.

Yes.

It's hard to believe that money burning sensation Groupthink and a Contessa debuter both exceeded par, for the level, by such a huge margin.

It sure looks like the Contessa is a promising New York bred.

In the case of Groupthink, I have to believe the muddy track helped move him up a great deal.

The dam of Groupthink won 2 of her 3 races on wet tracks, and they were both big form reversals.

https://scontent-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/1479342_10201205101001860_685604669_n.jpg

Groupthink's sire Majestic Warrior is also a good wet track sire.

[classhandicapper]

There's 2 types of figures I really don't trust.

1. Maiden races for lightly raced horses.

On the one hand, that's often all you often have to work with. On the other hand, the figure maker often has a tough nut to crack. There is no good historical record to go by when projecting a figure for the race and form is very volatile because lightly raced horses often move forward or backward in great leaps.

If the track changed speeds, the figure maker has no way of knowing that like he would with a seasoned more consistent group of horses. IMO, there are more figure errors located in races for lightly raced maiden than elsewhere.

2. Races where the track was very off and the margins between horses were very large.

Track speed could easily have been changing and it's hard to tell if the margins were large because the race fell apart (a lot of the horses didn't like the off) or because the top horses were as good as they look.

The 2nd race at AQU fits both of those.

I'd lean to both the top 2 running very well, but no way I'd be looking to play either of them. I'd also take any figures with a grain of salt.

[Robert Fischer]

There's 2 types of figures I really don't trust.

1. Maiden races for lightly raced horses.

On the one hand, that's often all you often have to work with. On the other hand, the figure maker often has a tough nut to crack. There is no good historical record to go by when projecting a figure for the race and form is very volatile because lightly raced horses often move forward or backward in great leaps.

If the track changed speeds, the figure maker has no way of knowing that like he would with a seasoned more consistent group of horses. IMO, there are more figure errors located in races for lightly raced maiden than elsewhere.

2. Races where the track was very off and the margins between horses were very large.

Track speed could easily have been changing and it's hard to tell if the margins were large because the race fell apart (a lot of the horses didn't like the off) or because the top horses were as good as they look.

The 2nd race at AQU fits both of those.

I'd lean to both the top 2 running very well, but no way I'd be looking to play either of them. I'd also take any figures with a grain of salt.

Those look like 2 good general rules/red-flags.

With Uncle Sigh being a lightly raced (debut) runner, I think you have to look at how the race was run, and that even though it was a 6F sprint, he was able to break like a route race and then ease over and then flow to the front. He'll be a low price vs. statebred MSWs, but even if he's drawn inside of some pace, I'd be hesitant to unload. He did show he can run.

Groupthink actually ran a more professional race. I can't fault the horse too much for losing to a peak-form Empire Dreams. I think the pace helped Groupthink as well because he cruised up more under his own power than in previous races. Maybe you can excuse Uncle Sigh getting the jump on Groupthink if you think maybe Ortiz handicapped the race and simply didn't expect a game US to be rallying to his outside entering the stretch. However, Groupthink failed to demolish Uncle Sigh once he got back the initiative.

[Robert Fischer]

Uncle Sigh is back today in the 6th @ Aqueduct.

He is stretching out in distance, and that should eliminate most doubt about being compromised at the break, and maybe add a little in terms of the stretch-out.

On paper much faster than his rivals.

He will be a very short price.

[Robert Fischer]

hard for me to bet on or against the good Uncle here.

Kind of hope he wins and maybe shows a chink in the armor.

alternatives ?
2-Vagarious showed he can run in debut after getting mugged at the start, and the 8-Pax In Terra also had a poor start on debut, and while he got a rail trip, I thought he showed some life, first on dirt for Pletcher today.

[Stillriledup]

hard for me to bet on or against the good Uncle here.

Kind of hope he wins and maybe shows a chink in the armor.

alternatives ?
2-Vagarious showed he can run in debut after getting mugged at the start, and the 8-Pax In Terra also had a poor start on debut, and while he got a rail trip, I thought he showed some life, first on dirt for Pletcher today.

I agree, a very short priced "one number" horse isnt a good bet usually, some of them run a corker first time out and never recover.

[Robert Fischer]

I agree, a very short priced "one number" horse isnt a good bet usually, some of them run a corker first time out and never recover.

Also the way he broke sluggishly, and the race kind of idled in the middle while he was circling the field.
That scares me enough to not want to take $2.80 to win on a horse.

[Robert Fischer]

beautiful start today

[Robert Fischer]

wow

[Exotic1]

Parlay 90k, one winner (big surprise!) pays 22k.

Turns out the Woburn race of 12/7 was a pretty good race and not just a case were the others didn't run. Acigarisjustacigar who last went off at 34-1 goes off at 2-1 today and jogs. They all got "legged up" in the One Red Cat race of 11/9 where you had Woburn, Acigar..., Six Drivers. All killers no doubt..

[burnsy]

Turns out the Woburn race of 12/7 was a pretty good race and not just a case were the others didn't run. Acigarisjustacigar who last went off at 34-1 goes off at 2-1 today and jogs. They all got "legged up" in the One Red Cat race of 11/9 where you had Woburn, Acigar..., Six Drivers. All killers no doubt..

I have not played aqueduct in a while.....got the itch today and played the late pic 4. Is it spring yet??????? What a compelling sequence. :sleeping: I guess the 8th race was alright. Mail could be legit.

[Exotic1]

I have not played aqueduct in a while.....got the itch today and played the late pic 4. Is it spring yet??????? What a compelling sequence. :sleeping: I guess the 8th race was alright. Mail could be legit.

I hear you,I tried to beat Jacobson in the 7th. Not a sound economic decision.

[Robert Fischer]

I hear you,I tried to beat Jacobson in the 7th. Not a sound economic decision.

how would you have liked to have a couple grand on that double ?

[Robert Fischer]

Looks like Uncle Sigh actually ran faster, than Tiz Gianni and the older horses in the next race.


1M70yds inner
Uncle Sigh 142.92
Tiz Gianni 143.53

[Tom]

I have not played aqueduct in a while.....got the itch today and played the late pic 4. Is it spring yet??????? What a compelling sequence. :sleeping: I guess the 8th race was alright. Mail could be legit.

So I bought a Form yesterday and was rewarding it last night.
Question for NYRA......instead of listing all those conditions for every race, why not save time and ink and just list the 5 or 6 horse who might NOT be eligible for that particular race.

When your race conditions have paragraphs, it's time to take a break. :rolleyes: