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limit2
12-05-2013, 02:21 PM
Here I am sitting at my computer watching the odds change close to post time. I look at the 6:1 ML shown at 8:1 with less than 1 minute to go. Not enough odds for me so I pass it up. The next thing that happens is the bold numbers become faint and the race goes off. The numbers now read the 6:1 ML went to 13:1 representing a desirable bet since I bet according to the odds. What happened here? It seems a supplemental pot of money was added as the gates opened. This is an experience I have been noticing lately. Anyone else bothered by this situation?

Dave Schwartz
12-05-2013, 02:25 PM
This has only been going on about 5 or 6 years. LOL

The higher the rebate, the greater the percentage of pool that shows up after the gate opens. At some tracks it is around 70% of the total handle.

BTW, if you wagered at zero minutes to post, YOUR money was part of that as well.

pondman
12-05-2013, 03:17 PM
Here I am sitting at my computer watching the odds change close to post time.

Not only do you have to worry about late money, but you've also got to consider the validity of the odds table, especially if you are playing on an online account.

I was watching a horse approaching the gate at Hollywood. The monitor at an OTB in N. Cal listed the horse as 6-1. You could see the big board at Hollywood listing the horse at 8-1. My xpressbet account said 5-1. I'm not all that concerned. I don't split too many hairs, except I wanted +5-1. The horse settle at 11-1.

I've always like JA's Nugget in Sparks. But I'll only stay there if I know the horse will be double digits, because their feed seems slow in comparison to the OTBs or live track. I just don't want to be stuck with 1 play and have it in the 5-1 range, and not being able to predict the crowd's behavior.

ronsmac
12-05-2013, 03:36 PM
This is one of the biggest problems today. Just as big as high takeouts. If you think that odds change was big, watch exacta payoffs from bell to final flash. The whales own this game.

redshift1
12-05-2013, 04:20 PM
Here I am sitting at my computer watching the odds change close to post time. I look at the 6:1 ML shown at 8:1 with less than 1 minute to go. Not enough odds for me so I pass it up. The next thing that happens is the bold numbers become faint and the race goes off. The numbers now read the 6:1 ML went to 13:1 representing a desirable bet since I bet according to the odds. What happened here? It seems a supplemental pot of money was added as the gates opened. This is an experience I have been noticing lately. Anyone else bothered by this situation?

Part of the landscape since 1867 when Parimutuel betting was developed, futher refined in 1913 with the invention of the automatic totalizer and now with computer wagering and sophisticated betting algorithms wild swings are common especially at tracks with small pools.

.

Phantombridgejumpe
12-05-2013, 07:15 PM
I wonder what the betting impact would be. I know people think the whales would stay away, but I think the system would at least get people talking.

Worth a try...

thaskalos
12-05-2013, 07:23 PM
I wonder what the betting impact would be. I know people think the whales would stay away, but I think the system would at least get people talking.

Worth a try...
The whales wouldn't stay away.

They would just strike a deal with the track to be allowed to wager 89 seconds before the race starts.

Stillriledup
12-05-2013, 08:04 PM
The 2nd race today at FG had some odd betting. Now, i know the 1 was the "natural favorite" but the 6 appeared to be the chalk at loading with Rosie. The 1 went got slammed down to 4-5 and won in hand, Rosie's horse went from 3-2 to 2-1 down the backstretch and hung in the lane and was fortunate to hold 2nd.

Maybe we all got the same idea at the same time "the 1 is a good win bet".

Phantombridgejumpe
12-05-2013, 10:56 PM
At least that is different that odds changes that (at least appear) to happen in race.

When the race starts all potential win and exacta payoffs would be known.

So a 33-1 over an 8-1 paying $85 would still suck it would at least be available information (although you couldn't do anything with the information).

Phantombridgejumpe
12-05-2013, 10:58 PM
AQU on Wednesday and got about $12-$15 more than I 'should' have.

These things do go both ways (and not at a 20:1 ratio).

Some_One
12-05-2013, 10:58 PM
I wonder what the betting impact would be. I know people think the whales would stay away, but I think the system would at least get people talking.

Worth a try...

Nothing would change, instead of a punter placing his bet at 0 mtp at 5-1 and watching his horse go down to 5/2 8 steps out of the gate, the punter would place his bet at 2 mtp at 5-1 and watch when the totes cut off at 90 sec to post and the final flash goes through and his horse is 5/2.

Dave Schwartz
12-06-2013, 12:01 AM
I've always like JA's Nugget in Sparks. But I'll only stay there if I know the horse will be double digits, because their feed seems slow in comparison to the OTBs or live track. I just don't want to be stuck with 1 play and have it in the 5-1 range, and not being able to predict the crowd's behavior.

Not any more. Last I heard they stopped taking horse bets.

However, The Nugget was just sold so who knows what happens next.

Personally, I am most concerned that the king crab on the buffet does not go away.

Phantombridgejumpe
12-06-2013, 08:09 AM
I think that change is huge. Pre-race knowledge and unhappiness is better than the in-race fluctuations.

startngate
12-07-2013, 04:14 PM
Nothing would change, instead of a punter placing his bet at 0 mtp at 5-1 and watching his horse go down to 5/2 8 steps out of the gate, the punter would place his bet at 2 mtp at 5-1 and watch when the totes cut off at 90 sec to post and the final flash goes through and his horse is 5/2.Exactly. When the pools actually lock is immaterial to what the odds will end up being. The only thing that would change is that in most cases the final odds would be displayed before the break.
I think that change is huge. Pre-race knowledge and unhappiness is better than the in-race fluctuations.You're telling us that you would be less upset seeing the horse you bet when you thought you were going to get 5-1 ends up at 5-2 ... just because you learn that before the break? I can understand feeling better that perhaps no one past posted, but the odds shifts are the odds shifts. Pushing up the lock time isn't going to change the late money coming in.

Stillriledup
12-07-2013, 04:30 PM
Be nice of some track would experiment with 2 separate pools, one that closes 0 MTP and one that closes at off time. Be interesting to see how the final prices stack up and which pools do more business.

menifee
12-08-2013, 12:52 AM
Nevada kid in claiming crown jewel goes from 8-1 to 5-1 a quarter of a way through the race - unreal late money

Stillriledup
12-08-2013, 01:22 AM
Nevada kid in claiming crown jewel goes from 8-1 to 5-1 a quarter of a way through the race - unreal late money

I saw that too, that's a huge drop, especially for a Nick Zito horse.

lamboguy
12-08-2013, 06:41 AM
everything being equal, if you see horses going down in price during the running of the race, you should see close to an equal amount going up. if there is a consistent disproportionate amount then you know there is some type of likely probability that something is going on after the gates open.

tzipi
12-09-2013, 12:40 PM
This is one of the biggest problems today. Just as big as high takeouts. If you think that odds change was big, watch exacta payoffs from bell to final flash. The whales own this game.

I have cut back playing the horses big time over the last year. One of the reasons is this above. I hate seeing my exacta paying $50 getting into the gate and betting and then at the wire and official it pays $35 or something. :D