Aqueduct figure discussion for 9f races today

[cj]

Should be quite the tough task given one honestly run race, and two extremely soft paces. Curious what others come up with, I'll post mine here.

[OTM Al]

Should be quite the tough task given one honestly run race, and two extremely soft paces. Curious what others come up with, I'll post mine here.

To the eye it seemed a bit odd as if the track was progressively slowing down over the second half of the card, though maybe it was just the jockeys....

[cj]

To the eye it seemed a bit odd as if the track was progressively slowing down over the second half of the card, though maybe it was just the jockeys....

Yeah, I think it was a case of the 2yo races just being joke paced, especially the Remsen.

[outofthebox]

CJ at some point later on can you post your pace rating for the Remsen. Would be interesting to see just how slower than par they ran. thanks

[Tom]

Discussion of the paceless racing in DRF....

http://www.drf.com/blogs/pace-strategies-and-other-notes

[Stillriledup]

Discussion of the paceless racing in DRF....

http://www.drf.com/blogs/pace-strategies-and-other-notes

This happens in NY at the major tracks more than all the other tracks combined, the jocks ride many races like they're 3 mile marathons. I've lost too many bets in NY because jocks "didnt race horses" early and my horses got caught sleeping in the back.

Its garbage.

[cj]

Discussion of the paceless racing in DRF....

http://www.drf.com/blogs/pace-strategies-and-other-notes

Thanks...haven't forgotten this, going to post some stuff later this week.

[MJC922]

Enjoyed the pace article from Mike W. Thanks Tom.

BTW, the Matriarch was mentioned but oddly enough not the pace of it. About Tiz Flirtatious, unless the clock is wrong she would've had to throw down a second half of 44 and change to be in time for that one. Not happening. That she got to within a couple of lengths at the line -- Razor sharp with a capital R.

[Delta Cone]

BTW, the Matriarch was mentioned but oddly enough not the pace of it. About Tiz Flirtatious, unless the clock is wrong she would've had to throw down a second half of 44 and change to be in time for that one. Not happening. That she got to within a couple of lengths at the line -- Razor sharp with a capital R.

I was a bit puzzled by the Tiz Flirtatious comment from Watchmaker, that she was feeling effects from hard races.

I'm with you MJC922, she looked visually impressive, galloped out in front just a few jumps past the wire. I saw a razor sharp horse too, not one that looked ready to tail off.

[peeptoad]

I'm not really a BSF person at all, but I noticed that the Demoiselle received a 77 BSF per DRF and the Remsen an 88, even though the Demoiselle was run in a slightly faster time 3 races earlier on the card. Was the track slowing down significantly?

[cj]

I'm not really a BSF person at all, but I noticed that the Demoiselle received a 77 BSF per DRF and the Remsen an 88, even though the Demoiselle was run in a slightly faster time 3 races earlier on the card. Was the track slowing down significantly?

No. It is clearly a pace issue.

[peeptoad]

No. It is clearly a pace issue.

I'm not entirely familiar with how BSFs are calculated but, per the charts, the Remsen appeared to have slower internal fractions and a slower final time. So why is the BSF 11 pts higher than the Demoiselle?
Sorry, if this seems like a stupid question, but I am honestly just asking...

[cj]

I'm not entirely familiar with how BSFs are calculated but, per the charts, the Remsen appeared to have slower internal fractions and a slower final time. So why is the BSF 11 pts higher than the Demoiselle?
Sorry, if this seems like a stupid question, but I am honestly just asking...

The pace of the Remsen was so slow, it was impossible for the horses to record a decent final time. Picture the best human milers in the world jogging the first 1/4 mile in two minutes. No matter how fast they run the rest of the race, they aren't breaking four minutes.

So, final time figure makers are left to either just rate the race on final time and give an absurdly low figure, or try to assign a number they think represents the ability of the horses.

At TimeformUS, we don't pretend our numbers are final time only. We adjust for the pace of the race.

When I handicap, I note these races with absurdly slow paces and pretty much put a line through them. They generally are not a good gauge of the horse's ability, not figure wise. If the horse has enough other running lines, I prefer to look at those. If it doesn't, I assess the race using other methods.

Year in and year out, there will be a few big winners in 2 year old races that come out of debuts with something like this:

1/4: 50
1/2: 55
Fin: 70

They will face horses that have final time figures in the 80s or higher. But you really don't know what these horses can do when asked to run early, and some will run much faster and win at big odds.

[peeptoad]

The pace of the Remsen was so slow, it was impossible for the horses to record a decent final time. Picture the best human milers in the world jogging the first 1/4 mile in two minutes. No matter how fast they run the rest of the race, they aren't breaking four minutes.

So, final time figure makers are left to either just rate the race on final time and give an absurdly low figure, or try to assign a number they think represents the ability of the horses.

At TimeformUS, we don't pretend our numbers are final time only. We adjust for the pace of the race.

Thanks. The late pace of the race must have been faster than the filly race since the final time was only slighter slower, but the internal splits were significantly slower.
IMO the Remsen BSF was assigned based on the subjective opinion of the horses' ability. Maybe this is accurate, maybe it isn't. Tough to tell when talking about lightly raced 2yos. This is honestly the reason that I don't use the BSF heavily when analyzing races.
Maybe I will need to invest in some TimeformUS figs...I do focus more on pace when handicapping.

[the little guy]

Thanks. The late pace of the race must have been faster than the filly race since the final time was only slighter slower, but the internal splits were significantly slower.
IMO the Remsen BSF was assigned based on the subjective opinion of the horses' ability. Maybe this is accurate, maybe it isn't. Tough to tell when talking about lightly raced 2yos. This is honestly the reason that I don't use the BSF heavily when analyzing races.
Maybe I will need to invest in some TimeformUS figs...I do focus more on pace when handicapping.


Translation....I really don't understand Beyer Speed Figures, nor how they are calculated, but I won't let that get in the way of my criticizing them.

Doesn't it EVER get old?

[peeptoad]

Translation....I really don't understand Beyer Speed Figures, nor how they are calculated, but I won't let that get in the way of my criticizing them.

Doesn't it EVER get old?

I can't tell whether you are criticizing me or agreeing with me, but I will say that I was under the impression that the BSFs were calculated based on final time for the distance via track variant. The response to my original post says to me that maybe they are not. And I guess I can criticize them since I am a paying customer at DRF.

You're not Andy Serling/Thinair are you? That would explain things a bit...

[cj]

I can't tell whether you are criticizing me or agreeing with me, but I will say that I was under the impression that the BSFs were calculated based on final time for the distance via track variant. The response to my original post says to me that maybe they are not. And I guess I can criticize them since I am a paying customer at DRF.

You're not Andy Serling/Thinair are you? That would explain things a bit...

There isn't a speed figure maker alive, not a good one anyway, that doesn't at times completely disregard the final time of a race. There can be lots of reasons for this, and aberrant slow pace is just one of them.