Clark Handicap- Game on Dude v. Will Take Charge

[andtheyreoff]

Who wins this?

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=11&param1=8228&param2=1972&param3=1483581

[RacingFan1992]

I have to say will take charge because he has a good outside drive.

[redshift1]

WTC over the aging veteran.

[TheEdge07]

Wouldnt touch WTC..

[Saratoga_Mike]

Wouldnt touch WTC..

Interesting - why?

[letswastemoney]

After looking at the race a little more, there is some pace in the race besides Game on Dude. It really depends on whether the other riders challenge Game on Dude early on, or whether they chicken out and play for 2nd place.

Our Double Play is going to get absolutely burned if he tries to challenge Game on Dude, but it would help Will Take Charge immensely if a duel happens.

[TheEdge07]

After looking at the race a little more, there is some pace in the race besides Game on Dude. It really depends on whether the other riders challenge Game on Dude early on, or whether they chicken out and play for 2nd place.

Our Double Play is going to get absolutely burned if he tries to challenge Game on Dude, but it would help Will Take Charge immensely if a duel happens.

Redbboard alert..Our Double Play started my pick 4 hit on May 4th..82,447.00 on a $12 Tix.

Back to WTC just think he peaked when other 3yr olds were tailing off.His Parx win was aided by a perfect trip..His Travers imo was a weak race...His classic place finish was nothing more then what it was..He will be 5/2 or less no thanks..ill look over the pps again.

[letswastemoney]

Bourbon Courage is kind of interesting. He had no chance last year with a loose on the lead Shackleford. This year, might be a different story.

[menifee]

What about Golden Ticket - ran into an absolute terrible bias on BC day and still came on for second. Ran well in the Stephen Foster. Always seems to run well.

[nijinski]

Prayer For Relief working fast for A Steve A horse . Worth a look . Bourbon Bourbon Courage hits the board again .

[precocity]

What about Golden Ticket - ran into an absolute terrible bias on BC day and still came on for second. Ran well in the Stephen Foster. Always seems to run well.

5 trillion to win on golden ticket!!!!!!!!! :cool:

[GMB@BP]

Prayer For Relief working fast for A Steve A horse . Worth a look . Bourbon Bourbon Courage hits the board again .

Prayer for Relief is also entered at Hawthorne which is probably a more likely spot.

[peeptoad]

I think Dude wins on the cutback.. in fact I think he might win decisively. His win % at 9F is around 77% vs. the 45% at 10F. 9F clearly is his better distance. Not only that, but WTC's closing #s have been lower during his last 2 races, though that might have more to do with the tracks he's been running on (Parx and SA, both speed-favoring typically).
I also like Bourbon Courage underneath. He's not a win machine at any distance, but 9F appears beyond his best, however I think he still gets up for 2nd or 3rd.

[peeptoad]

What about Golden Ticket - ran into an absolute terrible bias on BC day and still came on for second. Ran well in the Stephen Foster. Always seems to run well.

This is the one horse in the field that I can't figure what to do with. He could potentially win with a career top or match, or he could fail miserably.

[TheEdge07]

D.Salvatore on twitter

Last Lukas trained horse to win a GR1 in the state of Kentucky..
Azeri
Since 2008 Lukas trained horses are 1 for 135 in stakes races all at Kentucky tracks Lone winner at 6/5.

[DJofSD]

A quick scan through the PPs and my eyes land on Golden Ticket and Will Take Charge. But, as Mike and others have said, some pace analysis is needed.

Any guesses as to what the track surface will be -- fast?

[Tom]

If GOD wins, is he HOY?

[MJC922]

D.Salvatore on twitter

Last Lukas trained horse to win a GR1 in the state of Kentucky..
Azeri
Since 2008 Lukas trained horses are 1 for 135 in stakes races all at Kentucky tracks Lone winner at 6/5.


That's ugly. Can't help but wonder what role Harthill's passing has played with stats like this.

[peeptoad]

If GOD wins, is he HOY?

IMHO no. That award should go to Wise Dan. I do think that Dude should get the older male award (regardless of how he performs on Saturday really).

[precocity]

If GOD wins, is he HOY?
think tom likes saying god all the time for game on dude!!!! :D

[Tom]

It would be inviting trouble to go to the track and root against GOD! :eek:

[letswastemoney]

I think Dude wins on the cutback.. in fact I think he might win decisively. His win % at 9F is around 77% vs. the 45% at 10F. 9F clearly is his better distance. Not only that, but WTC's closing #s have been lower during his last 2 races, though that might have more to do with the tracks he's been running on (Parx and SA, both speed-favoring typically).
I also like Bourbon Courage underneath. He's not a win machine at any distance, but 9F appears beyond his best, however I think he still gets up for 2nd or 3rd.
Will Take Charge had to run faster in the early part of his last two races. At Saratoga, Will Take Charge closed from a sluggish pace in the Jim Dandy and Travers, so that's why his closing numbers were better back then.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Players are dogging WTC Travers against a loose on the lead horse in slow fractions,on a surface who's entire meet and especially that day catered to speed in routes?Picky bunch.

And he nearly won the BC Classic yet that's on par with his,what was it?Perfect trip in the PA Derby?Whateva!

I really don't care wether WTC or GOD wins the race because they will both be bet heavy and I won't be in the pools because of it.But this is some pretty asinine logic being applied to WTC IMO.As to the race,looking at GOD's Charles Town race,that was a pretty weak winning effort and while positioned where he wanted to be on BC day he stunk.If this is the same surface everybody crabbed about for days after favoring speed bigtime and he's that great of a competitor he doesn't back up that badly.He's an older horse who I think may have fell off the cliff and is done.If I can get 3-1 on WTC I'm in.My only hesitation is he has had back to back lifetime tops.But as a late bloomer he's worth a bet.

[Rex Phinney]

I'm a huge GOD fan, but at this stage, I'd have to take WTC. His effort in the classic was VERY good. It takes a very good 3YO to run that well in the classic, especially against the speed favoring track.

GOD just had no excuse in the classic, I have to think that maybe he has lost a step.

That being said, I don't think either is a superhorse, WTC could probably use some time off and GOD might be getting old, so maybe neither wins.

[letswastemoney]

I don't believe Santa Anita was speed favoring on BC Day 2. All the winners came from behind except She's a Tiger.

[Big Sal]

That's ugly. Can't help but wonder what role Harthill's passing has played with stats like this.

I've certainly never felt D. Wayne Lukas is or was a cheater. A lot of his success came when he was the beneficiary of hands down the best stock, and he had a great collection of assistant trainers. When you have that combo going, and you campaign horses hard and in pursuit of the biggest races, you're going to win some. A whole lot of promising horses he trained went sour, even in his glory days. His ROI stats and record with barn switches, both ways, going back as far as the early 90's suggest he was never the kind of trainer worthy of suspicion.

His horse have certainly have struggled badly in the state of Kentucky over recent years. They're 1-for-135 in stakes races since 2008. The lone winner was a 6/5 favorite who won the 2009 Debutante by a neck.

His horses are just 1-for-63 at Churchill Downs so far in 2013.
Worst of all, since 2008, they are just 36-for-444 (8% wins and a miserable $0.82 ROI) in dirt races at Churchill.

As I mentioned on Twitter, Azeri's win in the 2004 Spinster was his last Grade 1 win in the state of KY. His last Grade 1 at Churchill Downs was Spain in the 2000 Breeders Cup' Distaff. It's certainly been tough sledding for Lukas in the state of Kentucky.


Lukas was never an alchemist type of trainer...turning the base metal into gold. He just had the best US stock (homebred and yearling) year in and year out, and he could fire that spaghetti at the wall and some would stick. Sometimes you wonder how he didn't achieve more when you consider the advantages in stock he received and the skill so many of his assistant trainers displayed when they went out training on their own.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I've certainly never felt D. Wayne Lukas is or was a cheater. A lot of his success came when he was the beneficiary of hands down the best stock, and he had a great collection of assistant trainers. When you have that combo going, and you campaign horses hard and in pursuit of the biggest races, you're going to win some. A whole lot of promising horses he trained went sour, even in his glory days. His ROI stats and record with barn switches, both ways, going back as far as the early 90's suggest he was never the kind of trainer worthy of suspicion.

His horse have certainly have struggled badly in the state of Kentucky over recent years. They're 1-for-135 in stakes races since 2008. The lone winner was a 6/5 favorite who won the 2009 Debutante by a neck.

His horses are just 1-for-63 at Churchill Downs so far in 2013.
Worst of all, since 2008, they are just 36-for-444 (8% wins and a miserable $0.82 ROI) in dirt races at Churchill.

As I mentioned on Twitter, Azeri's win in the 2004 Spinster was his last Grade 1 win in the state of KY. His last Grade 1 at Churchill Downs was Spain in the 2000 Breeders Cup' Distaff. It's certainly been tough sledding for Lukas in the state of Kentucky.


Lukas was never an alchemist type of trainer...turning the base metal into gold. He just had the best US stock (homebred and yearling) year in and year out, and he could fire that spaghetti at the wall and some would stick. Sometimes you wonder how he didn't achieve more when you consider the advantages in stock he received and the skill so many of his assistant trainers displayed when they went out training on their own.

That is a remarkable stat.I look at a lot of Wayne's entrants into stakes and think "C'mon man,what are you doing?".But a single jingle win is sheer brutality!I'll still bet WTC at 3-1.

[MJC922]

I've certainly never felt D. Wayne Lukas is or was a cheater. A lot of his success came when he was the beneficiary of hands down the best stock, and he had a great collection of assistant trainers. When you have that combo going, and you campaign horses hard and in pursuit of the biggest races, you're going to win some. A whole lot of promising horses he trained went sour, even in his glory days. His ROI stats and record with barn switches, both ways, going back as far as the early 90's suggest he was never the kind of trainer worthy of suspicion.

His horse have certainly have struggled badly in the state of Kentucky over recent years. They're 1-for-135 in stakes races since 2008. The lone winner was a 6/5 favorite who won the 2009 Debutante by a neck.

His horses are just 1-for-63 at Churchill Downs so far in 2013.
Worst of all, since 2008, they are just 36-for-444 (8% wins and a miserable $0.82 ROI) in dirt races at Churchill.

As I mentioned on Twitter, Azeri's win in the 2004 Spinster was his last Grade 1 win in the state of KY. His last Grade 1 at Churchill Downs was Spain in the 2000 Breeders Cup' Distaff. It's certainly been tough sledding for Lukas in the state of Kentucky.


Lukas was never an alchemist type of trainer...turning the base metal into gold. He just had the best US stock (homebred and yearling) year in and year out, and he could fire that spaghetti at the wall and some would stick. Sometimes you wonder how he didn't achieve more when you consider the advantages in stock he received and the skill so many of his assistant trainers displayed when they went out training on their own.

Nice post. Yeah I also don't see him as a 'move up' trainer. That said, Lukas pushes horses pretty hard in a way which is quite a bit different from anyone else including his former assistants, consequently he may have greater dependencies upon the skill of certain vets to get his horses through the rigors of racing. How that plays into Kentucky racing specifically in the post-Harthill era would take some digging. Interesting aside, Will Take Charge has never had more than nine weeks off in his career, and yes, he's thrown up some impressive numbers in his last four running every 4 to 6 weeks. How long does this go on, indefinitely? There are two possibilites, it goes on indefinitely or something breaks. Will be interesting to see which comes first. I like the horse but to try to squeeze another race out of him post BC after this long of a campaign, win or lose, reckless comes to mind.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Nice post. Yeah I also don't see him as a 'move up' trainer. That said, Lukas pushes horses pretty hard in a way which is quite a bit different from anyone else including his former assistants, consequently he may have greater dependencies upon the skill of certain vets to get his horses through the rigors of racing. How that plays into Kentucky racing specifically in the post-Harthill era would take some digging. Interesting aside, Will Take Charge has never had more than nine weeks off in his career, and yes, he's thrown up some impressive numbers in his last four running every 4 to 6 weeks. How long does this go on, indefinitely? There are two possibilites, it goes on indefinitely or something breaks. Will be interesting to see which comes first. I like the horse but to try to squeeze another race out of him post BC after this long of a campaign, win or lose, reckless comes to mind.

Good post MJC.I too wonder about pushing him over 1 too many but I wouldn't say it's reckless.Looking at him he's a big ole hoss!It took them a while to get that baby fat off him and it's very possible he might just be as peaked as he can get right now.A winter off and he might come back too fat to race.Seriously!

[Rex Phinney]

I don't believe Santa Anita was speed favoring on BC Day 2. All the winners came from behind except She's a Tiger.

Don't fool yourself on its fairest day Santa Anita is a speed track, as someone who calls it my home track, anytime a horse runs from off the pace like WTC did its impressive.

I also caution those citing Lukas's stats from the last ten years, he was down and out for some time, 2012 and 2013 tell me we should be throwing all the bad stats for the old man out the window. What's old is new again and the stars are shining on him IMO

[TheEdge07]

I've certainly never felt D. Wayne Lukas is or was a cheater. A lot of his success came when he was the beneficiary of hands down the best stock, and he had a great collection of assistant trainers. When you have that combo going, and you campaign horses hard and in pursuit of the biggest races, you're going to win some. A whole lot of promising horses he trained went sour, even in his glory days. His ROI stats and record with barn switches, both ways, going back as far as the early 90's suggest he was never the kind of trainer worthy of suspicion.

His horse have certainly have struggled badly in the state of Kentucky over recent years. They're 1-for-135 in stakes races since 2008. The lone winner was a 6/5 favorite who won the 2009 Debutante by a neck.

His horses are just 1-for-63 at Churchill Downs so far in 2013.
Worst of all, since 2008, they are just 36-for-444 (8% wins and a miserable $0.82 ROI) in dirt races at Churchill.

As I mentioned on Twitter, Azeri's win in the 2004 Spinster was his last Grade 1 win in the state of KY. His last Grade 1 at Churchill Downs was Spain in the 2000 Breeders Cup' Distaff. It's certainly been tough sledding for Lukas in the state of Kentucky.


Lukas was never an alchemist type of trainer...turning the base metal into gold. He just had the best US stock (homebred and yearling) year in and year out, and he could fire that spaghetti at the wall and some would stick. Sometimes you wonder how he didn't achieve more when you consider the advantages in stock he received and the skill so many of his assistant trainers displayed when they went out training on their own.

Sounds like Pletcher his former assistant great stock ..TP also has a dreadful record in Kentucky states..

[Cheap Speed]

I'll defer to CJ for the final say on BC SA day 2 bias but from my view it was about as fair as SA gets.

But if I look at the BRIS spd #s for the dude, it looks like he came in with similar SR's for his last 2 BC races at SA and ran similar disappointing races and SR in the BC races. So it may not be the signal of his demise although at odds on u dont need too much to cause you to look elsewhere. I think the #'s show 9Fs is more in the dudes wheel house than 10F.

The stats listed for Lukas in GR stakes, especially in KY are hard to ignore for a horse that should go off at low odds. I did bet WTC in BC at 9-1 but not sure he gets the pace in front of him that he needs to win at 9F.

I'll most likely pass but if asked to pick a winner, would go with the dude and if needed a value bet would take a flyer on Easter Gift at 16-1 to higher. A little light in the class shorts but should be in the garden spot and get first run if things do fall apart

[CincyHorseplayer]

This is the ultimate litmus test right here,Traynor has suggested betting these types heavily becaue they represent Whale thinking and they must be right and these lower extremeities of odds are the salvation.

You out there bet this or you are cowards that don't believe in the "System".I think you lose either way.But take your credit with big bets here.Go for it!

[rastajenk]

..TP also has a dreadful record in Kentucky stakes..
This came up in the spring, and was immediately proved to be a useless stat. Who has a good record in Ky stakes, other than the roll the Ramseys are on? It's pretty competitive, no one is going to dominate for more than a short period of time.

[olddaddy]

Prayer for Relief is also entered at Hawthorne which is probably a more likely spot.


Looks like hes picking this spot over hawthorne, worth a look.

[classhandicapper]

A horse is always eligible to be over the top by the time the BC rolls around. Maybe GOD was over the top in the Classic, but I don't think so. If this race was in CA I'd bet him enthusiastically in this spot as the 2nd choice. I think his race in the Classic was better than it looks and not ideal for the way he wants to run. The problem I have with him has less to do with his race in the Classic and more to do with having less faith in him outside of CA.

Will Take Charge ran a big one in the Classic, but I'd be more apt to play against him and hope he doesn't repeat quite as good an effort this time at a short price. But if not GOD, I don't see anyone that makes me comfortable against him even if he doesn't run quite as well.

[olddaddy]

Ill go against the BC horses thinking they will bounce.

:3: :5: :6:

[CincyHorseplayer]

This came up in the spring, and was immediately proved to be a useless stat. Who has a good record in Ky stakes, other than the roll the Ramseys are on? It's pretty competitive, no one is going to dominate for more than a short period of time.

Great point.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Going with contrarian hunch value play, :6: Easter Gift - during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.... :)

[CincyHorseplayer]

Non bet.

[JimG]

From the two favorites, I like Game on Dude. From a betting perspective, I am looking at :3: Bourbon Courage and :6: Easter Gift.

Jim

[iceknight]

wps on :6: Easter Gift

-----post race---
looks like wtc is the real deal
6 paid 5.20 for a .80 loss

[TheEdge07]

Wouldnt touch WTC..

I was wrong WTC is one tough sob! 2/1 good for those who bet it Cincy was right..

[CincyHorseplayer]

I was wrong WTC is one tough sob! 2/1 good for those who bet it Cincy was right..

I called it but I said I wanted 3-1 but would have taken 5/2!Won't be the last time I watch them win without me!HAHA!!I honestly was surprised Game On Dude ran as well as he did.His last 2 dirt races were garbage and I thought only small fields and synthetic tracks could do him justice.He ran a good race.Will Take Charge,man he is the ultimate late bloomer!Jesus.He's built one hell of a resume,he's my 3yo horse of the year hands down.This is probably the last time we see him,his blood is incredibly valuable.Take Charge lady as a descendant of Northern Dancer is a dream mare.And the Fappiano-Unbridled line of Mr Prospector is highly successful.And tons of accolades have to go to his dad Unbridled's Song.He doesn't have a classic win but this son has shined and two of his other sons have bred 2yo route stakes winners in Havana(Dunkirk) and Rise Up(Rockport Harbor).His time to shine as a sire might very well be coming on.

[Grits]

What a race, and a great finish. WTC is one fine looking (and running) racehorse!!! Enjoyed it tremendously.

[GMB@BP]

WTC just has gotten really good, which is great because his is actually campaigned like a race horse, of course most people said Game On Dude is a fraud so what did he really beat?

[CincyHorseplayer]

What a race, and a great finish. WTC is one fine looking (and running) racehorse!!! Enjoyed it tremendously.

He is a looker isn't he?!I had him as a my screen saver for a few months.Got New Year's Day on there now.Might have to switch it for at least a week!:cool:

[nijinski]

Congrats to Lukas on the win . I always worry about those 17 + hand
horses . Though they have nice big strides they often find a way to
bump into more things in the barn and on the track . He kept him good
enough to do big things :ThmbUp: .

[Exotic1]

What a race, and a great finish. WTC is one fine looking (and running) racehorse!!! Enjoyed it tremendously.

Same here.

The horse deserves most of the credit but Lukas deserves some too. To train him up and through all the T/C races, keep him sound, focused after those defeats, take a very short breather up to the Jim Dandy where Lukas takes the blinkers off and the horse just kept showing up and getting faster and faster. Different tracks, States, medication rules, distances, jocks. Then he gets on the plane again to Parx and then the BC - we all saw what he missed by - after grueling winter, spring and summer campaigns. Wide around the first turn today probably pushed along a little closer that his preferred style (totally subjective). He puts out a fig in the BC that was by far his best and less than a month later he shows up again. Awesome.

[classhandicapper]

I don't think it was a bettable race unless you thought GOD was done, which I didn't (and he wasn't). I'm curious to see the figures for that race to see if either of them ran to their best form. I'm guessing not based on watching and my insights going in, but I didn't review the times at all. I still think GOD does his best running in CA. At least there's no longer any controversy about 3yo of the year. That's for sure. Will Take Charge could turn out to be quite a 4YO.

[depalma113]

There were several of us after the Derby that said Will Take Charge would have finished at least second had he not been stopped in the race. I think he has proven that he is the best 3 year-old this season and he deserves votes for HOY.

[andtheyreoff]

Here's the race (albeit with my not-so-great call of it):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhUeornDR6c

[raybo]

I called it but I said I wanted 3-1 but would have taken 5/2!Won't be the last time I watch them win without me!HAHA!!I honestly was surprised Game On Dude ran as well as he did.His last 2 dirt races were garbage and I thought only small fields and synthetic tracks could do him justice.He ran a good race.Will Take Charge,man he is the ultimate late bloomer!Jesus.He's built one hell of a resume,he's my 3yo horse of the year hands down.This is probably the last time we see him,his blood is incredibly valuable.Take Charge lady as a descendant of Northern Dancer is a dream mare.And the Fappiano-Unbridled line of Mr Prospector is highly successful.And tons of accolades have to go to his dad Unbridled's Song.He doesn't have a classic win but this son has shined and two of his other sons have bred 2yo route stakes winners in Havana(Dunkirk) and Rise Up(Rockport Harbor).His time to shine as a sire might very well be coming on.

You've been touting WTC for quite some time and, of course, you have been spot on. Like you, I had no interest in betting the race as I saw only 2 likely winners and both at lower odds than what I considered their probability of winning actually was. Also, like you, I favored WTC over GOD but favoring a horse is not the ticket to the ultimate destination, getting a good payout on a good horse, is.

Well done!!

[cj]

You've been touting WTC for quite some time and, of course, you have been spot on. Like you, I had no interest in betting the race as I saw only 2 likely winners and both at lower odds than what I considered their probability of winning actually was. Also, like you, I favored WTC over GOD but favoring a horse is not the ticket to the ultimate destination, getting a good payout on a good horse, is.

Well done!!

I'm curious, if there are only two likely winners, why was 5-2 or 2-1 not good enough? Did you have Game On Dude with a higher probability of winning?

[Tom]

I boxed the exacta - I am not proud.
I'll take any crumbs they throw me.
But WTC looks to be a promising 4 yr old......

[DJofSD]

I'm curious, if there are only two likely winners, why was 5-2 or 2-1 not good enough? Did you have Game On Dude with a higher probability of winning?
Ah, yes, therein lies the difference between the art and the science of value betting.

I never was very good at doing my own morning line, so, I usually end up fixing a gut-level minimum acceptable payout. For example, for grass races with 8 or more runners, my usual minimum for a win bet is to get 4-1 or $10.

[cj]

Ah, yes, therein lies the difference between the art and the science of value betting.

I never was very good at doing my own morning line, so, I usually end up fixing a gut-level minimum acceptable payout. For example, for grass races with 8 or more runners, my usual minimum for a win bet is to get 4-1 or $10.

It seemed like a two horse race where Will Take Charge was in much better form, and with plenty of speed signed on to Game On Dude honest. But you do have to account for the others in my opinion, at least with some percentage.

[DJofSD]

I boxed the exacta - I am not proud.
I'll take any crumbs they throw me.
But WTC looks to be a promising 4 yr old......
What was the probably pay if the finish was the other way 'round?

[raybo]

I'm curious, if there are only two likely winners, why was 5-2 or 2-1 not good enough? Did you have Game On Dude with a higher probability of winning?

That's why I stated "likely" winners, meaning that others in the field could also win the race. And no, I had WTC very slightly more probable to win. Like Cincy I needed about 3/1 for a bet on either horse, then I would probably have bet both of them, and taken my 50+% profit happily.

[cj]

That's why I stated "likely" winners, meaning that others in the field could also win the race. And no, I had WTC very slightly more probable to win. Like Cincy I needed about 3/1 for a bet on either horse, then I would probably have bet both of them, and taken my 50+% profit happily.

Was just curious, not knocking at all.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Even a horse I think is best,when they keep putting top on tops I know the train will stop at some point.That's the reasons I wanted a little bit better than 8/5 loading.Like I said it won't be the last time they win without me.Between this finish and the Remsen there's been a lot of excitement without cashflow!

[dilanesp]

I called it but I said I wanted 3-1 but would have taken 5/2!Won't be the last time I watch them win without me!HAHA!!I honestly was surprised Game On Dude ran as well as he did.His last 2 dirt races were garbage and I thought only small fields and synthetic tracks could do him justice.He ran a good race.Will Take Charge,man he is the ultimate late bloomer!Jesus.He's built one hell of a resume,he's my 3yo horse of the year hands down.This is probably the last time we see him,his blood is incredibly valuable.Take Charge lady as a descendant of Northern Dancer is a dream mare.And the Fappiano-Unbridled line of Mr Prospector is highly successful.And tons of accolades have to go to his dad Unbridled's Song.He doesn't have a classic win but this son has shined and two of his other sons have bred 2yo route stakes winners in Havana(Dunkirk) and Rise Up(Rockport Harbor).His time to shine as a sire might very well be coming on.

I actually bet him in the Derby future book in Vegas last January based purely on breeding and who his trainer was. The bet looks pretty good in retrospect even though it lost.

[iceknight]

Nice little story the morning after for WTC
http://www.churchilldowns.com/news/archive/will-take-charge-well-morning-after-stirring-clark-handicap-victory

[Investorater]

:cool: Congratulations to WILL TAKE CHARGE for his win over game on dude!

[chadk66]

enough for three year old of the year?

[Phantombridgejumpe]

and he should be top 3 for HOY.

I wouldn't vote him HOY, but 3YO is honestly a
no-brainer in my opinion.

[Zaf]

I would vote for him for both 3YO and HOY. :ThmbUp:

Z

[classhandicapper]

That's why I stated "likely" winners, meaning that others in the field could also win the race. And no, I had WTC very slightly more probable to win. Like Cincy I needed about 3/1 for a bet on either horse, then I would probably have bet both of them, and taken my 50+% profit happily.

I thought the biggest risk in betting the race was that neither of them might fire his "A" race.

You had GOD racing outside of CA where he's had several sub par races even while he's been really good and you had Will Take Charge coming off a big lifetime top in the BC and no lock to run back to that form.

In fact, I think neither ran their "A" race, but like I said in my original comment, it was kind of tough to find anyone you could confidently play against them. The gap in ability was large. I didn't see anyone that looked like they were about to break out and become a top performer. So they ran their "B" race and still finished 1-2.

[raybo]

I thought the biggest risk in betting the race was that neither of them might fire his "A" race.

You had GOD racing outside of CA where he's had several sub par races even while he's been really good and you had Will Take Charge coming off a big lifetime top in the BC and no lock to run back to that form.

In fact, I think neither ran their "A" race, but like I said in my original comment, it was kind of tough to find anyone you could confidently play against them. The gap in ability was large. I didn't see anyone that looked like they were about to break out and become a top performer. So they ran their "B" race and still finished 1-2.

That's why you demand value before betting.

[dilanesp]

I thought the biggest risk in betting the race was that neither of them might fire his "A" race.

You had GOD racing outside of CA where he's had several sub par races even while he's been really good and you had Will Take Charge coming off a big lifetime top in the BC and no lock to run back to that form.

In fact, I think neither ran their "A" race, but like I said in my original comment, it was kind of tough to find anyone you could confidently play against them. The gap in ability was large. I didn't see anyone that looked like they were about to break out and become a top performer. So they ran their "B" race and still finished 1-2.

Game On Dude didn't mind Churchill two years ago.

[Cratos]

I got stuck on Orb and Palace Malice during the 3yo campaign earlier in the year and Will Take Charge baffled me with his early performances, however I did pick him as my longshot in the Travers, but I didn’t bet him although he went off at 9-1.

However D. Wayne wasn’t labeled the “Master” for nothing and I now cast my vote (I really don’t have one) for Will Take Charge as both 3yo of the year and Horse of the Year.

I realize that Wise Dan has had a very good year, but he did it all as a “mile specialist” on the turf.

[classhandicapper]

Game On Dude didn't mind Churchill two years ago.

I agree. He did run well in that Classic, but it just seemed to me that the preponderance of evidence was that he might be better at home. IMO that made 1-1 tough to swallow even if you thought (like I did) that his race in the Classic wasn't as bad as everyone was making it out to be.

I don't think GOD is the kind of horse that wants to go 10F after chasing other high quality speeds while being 3-4W on the first turn and then wide again. He's got enough stamina and ability to win at 10F with an easy trip or against weaker competition. But if he has a tough time against other legit Grade 1 horse, IMO he's going to have a tough time getting 10F like he did in the Classic.

[raybo]

I thought the biggest risk in betting the race was that neither of them might fire his "A" race.

You had GOD racing outside of CA where he's had several sub par races even while he's been really good and you had Will Take Charge coming off a big lifetime top in the BC and no lock to run back to that form.

In fact, I think neither ran their "A" race, but like I said in my original comment, it was kind of tough to find anyone you could confidently play against them. The gap in ability was large. I didn't see anyone that looked like they were about to break out and become a top performer. So they ran their "B" race and still finished 1-2.

That's why I demanded higher value on both of them. If we knew for sure that one or both of them would run their best race then there was only 1 or 2 horses to consider. And, one would need better than 1/1 odds on those horses. That wasn't the case, so one needed at least 2/1 and possibly, as in my case, higher than that, to legitimize a bet on either horse. If there was more than 2 horses to consider then the logical minimum odds would be at least 3/1.