Mountaineer Nov 25, the only track running!

[Stillriledup]

How does the 2 wire the field in Race 3? He's a sprinter running off to a 22 and change first quarter and nobody gets near him, with a 2 for 62 trainer and hammered down to 9-5 last flash.

[lamboguy]

he had no pressure and he got a great ride.

[cj]

The horse was consistently faster than the rest of the field on my numbers.

[Maximillion]

Race 8 looks kind of interesting.... Ill do a (probably bad) write-up if anyones playing along.

[Stillriledup]

The horse was consistently faster than the rest of the field on my numbers.

I must have a different DRF than you, in his one route race, he ran a 0 Beyer fig. Tonight he had a 3 pct trainer, a 5 pct rider, went wild 22 chg opening quarter on a track that's been playing to outside/closers and nobody gets near him. Consistently faster or not, i wouldnt have wanted too much money on him after 22 chg all things considered.

"Fresh Carlos Lopez" might have been the difference here (somehow).

[Stillriledup]

Kaboom! Show bet race 4.

[cutchemist42]

Show bet paid off on the 7 with the slight bridge jumper!

[Stillriledup]

I gotta tell you, if i was in charge of Mountaineer, i would be looking into these pick 5 bets, it seems like when longshots hit at Mountain, theres always one person alive, the probables for the Pick 5 into leg 5, some are lower than the pick 4, this is a regular occurance at Mountain and certainly something to be looking into.

Probable payout to the 1 in the pick 4 is 17k for a buck, in the pick 5, with adding a non favorite in leg 1, you get 10k for a buck.

The payouts seem to indicate that one person is alive for 1.50 to five different horses. Its possible that many different people are alive and it all just happens to have 3 tickets on each runner, but i'd be curious to know if one ticket is scooping the pool here, or one person with 2 "repeats" scooping it.

[Stillriledup]

Show bet paid off on the 7 with the slight bridge jumper!
I really liked the 7 in there, i bet him WPS. Got lucky the 3 ran out!

[Maximillion]

Not much going on tonight so my take on race 8

:1: Boy From Roy-able to shake free with ( on paper) modest fractions in last......likely will have to deal with the :5: Carnbrea'Destiny at some point early in the race...how that shakes out I have no Idea....likely favorite and probably deservedly so.

:4: Dubai Mistake-Hard trying and lightly raced closer likely a strong factor here.

:5: Carnbrea'sdestiny-Very similiar to the :1: imo....neither would seem likely to tolerate each others presence but this one would appear to be the one who could rate and still have a chance at the win.

:7: Personal Assistant-Has been the public choice in his last 6 races....doesent really seem to me to be on the improve and this is not an easier spot for him.Ill let him beat me.

:10: Bluff Road-3 for 31 stretch runner....what bothers me more than his record are his declining speed ratings from earlier in the meet.Likely to draw support with Parker riding.

:3: Top Meow--Buried early at a higher class level..(prep?)...The "breif foot" comment Im taking as a positive sign....if able to produce his 9-16 effort here can be a factor at a long price.My longshot of the night.

Win bet :3: Top Meow

[appistappis]

speed is very good tonight...outside closers are no where.

[Stillriledup]

speed is very good tonight...outside closers are no where.

The first race of the night the winner circled up wide and crushed, but you're right, after that it seems like speed has gotten better...i know we have had probably the best horse in the race winning, but that horse who won the 6th has shown the tendency to stop to a walk, but today kept going and nobody got close to him.

[Stillriledup]

The 9 is interesting in Race 7.....supertrainer, was bet a little bit first time out, showed a little speed and faded...maybe this thing can pop the box and roll on the lead. Lets watch the board here.

[appistappis]

I bet that 9, gonna try the longshot 6 in the 8th.

[Maximillion]

Not much going on tonight so my take on race 8

:1: Boy From Roy-able to shake free with ( on paper) modest fractions in last......likely will have to deal with the :5: Carnbrea'Destiny at some point early in the race...how that shakes out I have no Idea....likely favorite and probably deservedly so.

:4: Dubai Mistake-Hard trying and lightly raced closer likely a strong factor here.

:5: Carnbrea'sdestiny-Very similiar to the :1: imo....neither would seem likely to tolerate each others presence but this one would appear to be the one who could rate and still have a chance at the win.

:7: Personal Assistant-Has been the public choice in his last 6 races....doesent really seem to me to be on the improve and this is not an easier spot for him.Ill let him beat me.

:10: Bluff Road-3 for 31 stretch runner....what bothers me more than his record are his declining speed ratings from earlier in the meet.Likely to draw support with Parker riding.

:3: Top Meow--Buried early at a higher class level..(prep?)...The "breif foot" comment Im taking as a positive sign....if able to produce his 9-16 effort here can be a factor at a long price.My longshot of the night.

Win bet :3: Top Meow

bad break -np

[lamboguy]

strictly inside tonight.

[cj]

I must have a different DRF than you, in his one route race, he ran a 0 Beyer fig. Tonight he had a 3 pct trainer, a 5 pct rider, went wild 22 chg opening quarter on a track that's been playing to outside/closers and nobody gets near him. Consistently faster or not, i wouldnt have wanted too much money on him after 22 chg all things considered.

"Fresh Carlos Lopez" might have been the difference here (somehow).

So his one route race, like 20 races ago, defines him? Good to know. And, of course, you know I don't use DRF, so don't be an ass.

[appistappis]

r10....they gotta catch the 4

[Stillriledup]

Lord take me know, i've seen it all.

[Stillriledup]

So his one route race, like 20 races ago, defines him? Good to know. And, of course, you know I don't use DRF, so don't be an ass.

You were quoting figures that had nothing to do with anything, am i supposed to use sprint race figures to bet a horse in a 2 turn race? I didnt say it defines anything, but what does a sprint figure have to do with today, this was a route race, the horse was a sprinter, unless i didnt understand what you were saying?

[cj]

You were quoting figures that had nothing to do with anything, am i supposed to use sprint race figures to bet a horse in a 2 turn race? I didnt say it defines anything, but what does a sprint figure have to do with today, this was a route race, the horse was a sprinter, unless i didnt understand what you were saying?

His figures earned in recent sprints are WAY more relevant than some route figure earned so far back.

You act as though a sprinter has never stretched out and won a route by speed popping the field. The horse was 9 to 5 because that wasn't exactly Dr. Fager and Alysheba chasing him home. If anything, you should have used this info to assess the condition of the track rather than starting a silly thread.

[098poi]

His figures earned in recent sprints are WAY more relevant than some route figure earned so far back.

You act as though a sprinter has never stretched out and won a route by speed popping the field. The horse was 9 to 5 because that wasn't exactly Dr. Fager and Alysheba chasing him home. If anything, you should have used this info to assess the condition of the track rather than starting a silly thread.

That's funny!

[cj]

For what it is worth, I'm not so sure the rail was any more advantage than it usually is, i.e. shortest trip home.

[PIC6SIX]

I had the two and I do not have a form. I bet him at 4:1 on Twinspires. I picked the two because it looked very good in the padock. Its head was up, pulling at the groom and very perky. I also was suprised at the odds drop but you have to be prepared for that at the MTN. Very small pools.

[Stillriledup]

His figures earned in recent sprints are WAY more relevant than some route figure earned so far back.

You act as though a sprinter has never stretched out and won a route by speed popping the field. The horse was 9 to 5 because that wasn't exactly Dr. Fager and Alysheba chasing him home. If anything, you should have used this info to assess the condition of the track rather than starting a silly thread.

My comments were based on this specific situation, not any random sprinter. This was a horse who was in sprint races for a reason and the reason usually is that they don't have the stamina to win a route race. If they have speed AND stamina, you can race at any distance, but this horse is strictly a sprinter on pps. Also, this is a very cheap horse, trained by a guy who rarely wins, ridden by a jock who rarely wins, going 22 and change on a track that, at least from the past few days, speed wasnt holding.

With all the factors, i was surprised this horse was able to go that fast, with a poor rider and trainer and hold on.

You're right, sometimes a sprinter can go all the way, i was just shocked that it was this particular horse after he went so fast early.

Now, if he got loose and went 25 and 50 to the half and sprinted home, i wouldnt have been shocked, but my shock was seeing the 22 and change with all the other factors. You do see sprinters wire in route races, but you arent going to find too many 5k claimers with low percentage connections on a track not necessarily known as a speed favoring surface go 22 and change in the winter and never look back.

[BombsAway Bob]

I gotta tell you, if i was in charge of Mountaineer, i would be looking into these pick 5 bets, it seems like when longshots hit at Mountain, theres always one person alive, the probables for the Pick 5 into leg 5, some are lower than the pick 4, this is a regular occurance at Mountain and certainly something to be looking into.

Probable payout to the 1 in the pick 4 is 17k for a buck, in the pick 5, with adding a non favorite in leg 1, you get 10k for a buck.

The payouts seem to indicate that one person is alive for 1.50 to five different horses. Its possible that many different people are alive and it all just happens to have 3 tickets on each runner, but i'd be curious to know if one ticket is scooping the pool here, or one person with 2 "repeats" scooping it.
Early Pick-4 pool was actually $1,400 larger than P-5 pool
(Imagine what a Players Pool 15% Takeout P5 would handle!)
& both early & late Pick-5's handled just under $20K.
Note the Pick-5 is also $.50 Base,the Pick-4 $1 Base bet, so when a
universal single in 4th got beat, perhaps more P-4 tix went up in flames.
5th Race DRF results charts:
http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=MNR&CTY=USA&DATE=20131125&RN=5
Looking at charts, a tad amusing to see "official" On-Track Attendance
& Handle. +2,500 Fans opened up their wallets & churned +$8,300...
that's about $3.50 bet PER PERSON on the ENTIRE CARD!
(total handle a solid $1.3 Mil.)
10th Race DRF results Charts
http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=MNR&CTY=USA&DATE=20131125&RN=10

[Stillriledup]

Early Pick-4 pool was actually $1,400 larger than P-5 pool
(Imagine what a Players Pool 15% Takeout P5 would handle!)
& both early & late Pick-5's handled just under $20K.
Note the Pick-5 is also $.50 Base,the Pick-4 $1 Base bet, so when a
universal single in 4th got beat, perhaps more P-4 tix went up in flames.
5th Race DRF results charts:
http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=MNR&CTY=USA&DATE=20131125&RN=5
Looking at charts, a tad amusing to see "official" On-Track Attendance
& Handle. +2,500 Fans opened up their wallets & churned +$8,300...
that's about $3.50 bet PER PERSON on the ENTIRE CARD!
(total handle a solid $1.3 Mil.)
10th Race DRF results Charts
http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=MNR&CTY=USA&DATE=20131125&RN=10

There was 26, 460 potential combinations in the pick 5, so it would have taken 13, 230 dollars to 'buy" the bet. In the Pick 4, there were 2,646 potential combos, so that would have taken 2,646 dollars to "buy" the bet. Pick 5 much much tougher and yet, someone was alive for a buck 50 to 5 different horses. In the 4th leg of the pick 5 and the 3rd leg of the pick 4, it appeared to be a "3 horse race" tops, but i would imagine many singled the chalk.

I would still look into that pick 5, seems like on too many occasions, there is at least one pick 4 combo that's paying MORE than the pick 5 and something like that should be very rare, but it's a common occurrence.

[Stillriledup]

The horse was consistently faster than the rest of the field on my numbers.

What happened tonight. :confused:

[Stillriledup]

How does the 2 wire the field in Race 3? He's a sprinter running off to a 22 and change first quarter and nobody gets near him, with a 2 for 62 trainer and hammered down to 9-5 last flash.

This horse, Van demon, ran tonight, went 115 to the 3/4s and came to a halt.