SUN AQ Race 1

[Cholly]

There's an interesting morning line for this race. The projected 5-2 favorite is Saturdays Appeal. He last raced this condition (SN1X) on Nov 3rd, was sent off at 70-1 and finished 16 lengths back.

The projected 2nd choice at 3-1 is Alcolite. His last race was that same Nov 3rd SN1X race; he also was bet to 70-1, finished 10 lengths back.

Mr. Donavan makes a good line and isn't often wrong, esp. on the state-bred races. So I guess those two will get bet--but it's hard to see.

[the little guy]

Well, why don't you take a closer look at the others.

It's not about any horse's specific talent....it's only their talents relative to the competition. Who in that race merits taking more money?

The favorite is never going to be 20:1.

[JustRalph]

Let's take the FL shipper at a price ...........

:2:

[Cholly]

If I had been pressed to guess, I would have thought Jerkens' improving 3yo, or Javier Castellano would take more action than those other two horses--but Mr. Donavan does this for a living (and does it well) so I imagine he's right.

As for betting, I'd go for the turf horse (Mike & Rob) if I could get 6-1.

[the little guy]

If I had been pressed to guess, I would have thought Jerkens' improving 3yo, or Javier Castellano would take more action than those other two horses--but Mr. Donavan does this for a living (and does it well) so I imagine he's right.

As for betting, I'd go for the turf horse (Mike & Rob) if I could get 6-1.

I would love to be able to give people 6:1 on Mike and Rob. As far as the "Jerkens" horse, Chrisandlorisposse....he should be 30:1. He won't be, maybe he'll be 12:1, but he has very little chance, at least based on his last race ( which, in theory, is his best race yet ).

[cj]

If I had been pressed to guess, I would have thought Jerkens' improving 3yo, or Javier Castellano would take more action than those other two horses--but Mr. Donavan does this for a living (and does it well) so I imagine he's right.

As for betting, I'd go for the turf horse (Mike & Rob) if I could get 6-1.

For what it's worth, the top two on the ML or co-fastest on my figures.

[Exotic1]

There's an interesting morning line for this race. The projected 5-2 favorite is Saturdays Appeal. He last raced this condition (SN1X) on Nov 3rd, was sent off at 70-1 and finished 16 lengths back.

The projected 2nd choice at 3-1 is Alcolite. His last race was that same Nov 3rd SN1X race; he also was bet to 70-1, finished 10 lengths back.

Mr. Donavan makes a good line and isn't often wrong, esp. on the state-bred races. So I guess those two will get bet--but it's hard to see.

Sorry to intrude here. I have Saturday Appeal running on 11/13/13 and finishing second at odds of 7-1 Mr. Donovan could be the best M/L guy, imo.

As far as the race, Saturday Appeal should lead by many. If Saxophone Len transfers his FL form to AQU, then he should win but I have no clue if he will. He was a downstate horse last year.

[cj]

Sorry to intrude here. I have Saturday Appeal running on 11/13/13 and finishing second at odds of 7-1 Mr. Donovan could be the best M/L guy, imo.



He said last time at the same condition. His last race was in a claimer.

[Exotic1]

Of course you're right. I can't read.

[Ocala Mike]

Two predictions about this race:

The :2: will be the post-time favorite.

The :3: will outrun his odds.

My bet: 5 units on :3:
1 unit exacta all/ :3:
1 unit exacta box :2: :3:

Total investment - 13 units; plenty of time later in the day to chase that if I get off on the wrong foot.

[jerry-g]

I do think the :2: is a good one for this 9F distance. The two favorites M/L
wise, one has demonstrated it has a problem going that far and the other
has never done it. The :2:, on the other hand has at least won at 9F. The
horse has speed ability so the crowd may pick up on that and bet him down.
If they do, I won't go out of my mind over the 1st race of the day and will
simply pass. I also considered the two month L/O but if the work on Nov 17
is accurate, he should be in shape for this race. It looks like a sharp w/o to
me. Also he ran 3rd his last out and Saturday Appeal ran 2nd but it was a
15K Claimer and I believe the 2 horse's last race being an Alw 25K NW4L
trumps that.

[Stillriledup]

Very tough race to make a ML.

My gut was that the 1 is too low, but the more i look at it, he fits well as a one move closer in a long 2 turn race. The 6 was a bias aided win in a one turn mile and the 5 was taking advantage of those long one turn miles, not sure this horse will be as good going two turns.

The 2 is a mystery, anything can win here, i'd look at warmups and prices and make a late call, but right now, it seems like an "all except the 6" race in the Pick 5.

[Exotic1]

Very tough race to make a ML.

My gut was that the 1 is too low, but the more i look at it, he fits well as a one move closer in a long 2 turn race. The 6 was a bias aided win in a one turn mile and the 5 was taking advantage of those long one turn miles, not sure this horse will be as good going two turns.

The 2 is a mystery, anything can win here, i'd look at warmups and prices and make a late call, but right now, it seems like an "all except the 6" race in the Pick 5.

Agree, #2 is a mystery. Not only fitness, but his good races were with Hushion - now it's Martin. I used to see more FL horses winning downstate, but now it's rare for whatever reason. Re: the #6, I don't know about the bias aided thing - I do know that the fractions he got away with last time were slow. The #4 has some good races last year on the inner, has a balanced running style but I have no reason to think he will run his good race. That trainer used to do well on the inner shipping from Suf, way back when.

[MJC922]

:1: makes enough sense to me as the top pick but I would not be taking 3-1 on a low percentage trainer unless the horse looked really good in the paddock, and even then it would be a smaller bet. He moved very wide last time as the field took closer order, decent enough effort. I liked that race more as a possible signal that he could be coming back to his summer form than anything else.

:2: two big numbers summer of 2012, eased, shows up at FL, Bireta's a nice person but this horse would seem to have an issue that I would be looking to play against today and see what happens.

:3: I like the entire direction of this horse but how much class he has in a dirt route is anyone's guess.

:4: usually tries, I don't see any big negatives, last race setup for his style so not as good as it looked but offsetting that is he was coming off 29 weeks rest, again low pct trainer.

:5: logical but I have him off a big effort 11 days ago, and this time of year I'm inclined to expect a blow up than a pair up.

:6: is sharp but has to deal with the :5: who is clearly the early speed of the race, not for me.

:7: Low pct trainer, hard for me to play off three sub-par dirt numbers though.

[therussmeister]

All of this is moot. Racing is cancelled due to high winds.

[Exotic1]

All of this is moot. Racing is cancelled due to high winds.

Perhaps they will re-card the race. In the same post position order?

[Ocala Mike]

Not sure they do that, except maybe for "big" races.

[Stillriledup]

Perhaps they will re-card the race. In the same post position order?

I havent seen tracks put the same exact races that were cancelled (same fields in same post order), but i guess there's a first time for everything.

[the little guy]

Perhaps they will re-card the race. In the same post position order?

Three of today's scheduled races, not the 1st however, were brought back for Friday. They don't come back drawn the same way as they have to be redrawn.

It's possible it will reappear next weekend, more likely Sunday if it is redrawn.

[Cholly]

Considering how light this race ($65,000 purse and all) came up, maybe some of the contingent who ran 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in that Nov. 3 running will want to get in when this race is re-carded.

[Exotic1]

Three of today's scheduled races, not the 1st however, were brought back for Friday. They don't come back drawn the same way as they have to be redrawn.

It's possible it will reappear next weekend, more likely Sunday if it is redrawn.

Ok, thanks.

[Exotic1]

Not sure they do that, except maybe for "big" races.

I sort of thought they draw post positions again. Generally, there is a new face when they do run - or they all don't show up.

[Ocala Mike]

The horse I was giving a big shot to last Sunday is in tomorrow's 3rd race, AQU:

:9: OCALA JIM - turf to dirt.

Playing W/P.

[Cholly]

It's back...will be the "Feature Race" (8th) on Wednesday's opening card for the inner. The re-draw attracted twelve runners, up from 7 entered to run on Nov. 24.

[Cholly]

I want a Mulligan on that pik I listed earlier--no way I'd bet Mike in this field today...maybe Sinistral or Chrisandlorry at 15-1 or greater.

[Stillriledup]

I want a Mulligan on that pik I listed earlier--no way I'd bet Mike in this field today...maybe Sinistral or Chrisandlorry at 15-1 or greater.

This is a rough race, really wide open.

[jk3521]

The horse I was giving a big shot to last Sunday is in tomorrow's 3rd race, AQU:

:9: OCALA JIM - turf to dirt.

Playing W/P.

This post was from late November or early December...but, I think today might be the day 1/10/14 , Race 7

[Ocala Mike]

Not today; horse looks like a candidate for FL or maybe back to turf.