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Stillriledup
11-21-2013, 08:21 PM
I was doing some thinking about betting strategy and was asking myself how you would go about taking 10 bucks and running with it. (assuming 0 rebate for arguments sake).

You have 5 two dollar win bets. OR, do you start off betting place or show?

Now, the criteria is that you have as long as you want to make your first wager, you can wait months if you have to, but 10 dollars is all you ever have to play horses and if you lose it, you're out of the sport forever.

Do you wait for a "sure thing" at Mountaineer or Charlestown and bet the entire ten to show and turn the 10 into 11?

Do you wait to bet a really strong 4-5 type of horse to place and try to make a 1 dollar profit and run the bankroll from 10 to 11?

What would be your strategy in this scenario?

Personally, i think i would probably wait for a really strong 2-1 or 3-1 type horse and bet 2 dollars to win...and if i lost, i would re-evaluate my next move with an 8 dollar bankroll. But, that's probably how i would approach it, unless any of you has a better idea?

sammy the sage
11-21-2013, 08:49 PM
Let's see...entrance fee...parking...program...refreshment...guess I'm DONE... :( :mad: :bang:

Exotic1
11-21-2013, 08:52 PM
I'd be in the hole before the race. I'd buy a DRF, well done everything bagel with a little butter, coffee. Now I'm down $15 before the race. Ok, so If I had $25 to start what would I do? I'd probably play some exotic - to build the bank roll up immediately.

What about this: you have 10k to invest, now what? Or you had 100k to invest, now what?

olddaddy
11-21-2013, 09:02 PM
Id 1st play tracks that take ace win bets and have large fields, keenland would be nice. Sit, wait for a decent nice price horse 10/1+, keep trying that with my ace bets. Id figure I have 10 shots that way to bust if I dont hit. If I can build my bankroll to $50, Id increase my bets to deuces on 5/1+ horses. Then if I got up to $100, I play some .50pk3s and dollar dd's along with $2 win bets.


Btw: I usually do this at the middle of every month till I get my check at the beginning of the next month. And it works sometimes and not sometimes.

JustRalph
11-21-2013, 09:23 PM
Sounds like a good basis for a contest here at PA

Stillriledup
11-21-2013, 09:57 PM
Sounds like a good basis for a contest here at PA

I like it. Start everyone off with 10 bucks on Jan 1st and see who is still standing at the end of the year!

antigeekess
11-21-2013, 10:16 PM
I like it. Start everyone off with 10 bucks on Jan 1st and see who is still standing at the end of the year!

I like it a lot. Did an exercise like that with $5 a few months ago at Del Mar, just for a day when I really 'shouldn't' have been betting at all. Got up to $90 and then back down to $70 playing fairly short-priced winners and easy exactas, as I recall.

Good exercise for those of us who have a little problem with discipline and money management, betting like your next meal depends on it. (Thank God it doesn't.)

Stillriledup
11-21-2013, 10:26 PM
I like it a lot. Did an exercise like that with $5 a few months ago at Del Mar, just for a day when I really 'shouldn't' have been betting at all. Got up to $90 and then back down to $70 playing fairly short-priced winners and easy exactas, as I recall.

Good exercise for those of us who have a little problem with discipline and money management, betting like your next meal depends on it. (Thank God it doesn't.)

I think its a good idea for people who are just struggling at the windows. If you can't win with 10, you might not be able to win with 100 or a grand. Its good practice with discipline and being really picky with the bets you make, you can never go wrong skipping races and waiting for excellent selections only.

thaskalos
11-21-2013, 10:28 PM
It's virtually impossible not to go broke when you start off with only $10...no matter how you go about it. The minimum betting units are just too high for this low a starting "bankroll".

DeltaLover
11-21-2013, 10:33 PM
It's virtually impossible not to go broke when you start off with only $10...no matter how you go about it. The minimum betting units are just too high for this low a starting "bankroll".

Thask is 100% correct.

See also:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_ruin

RaceBookJoe
11-21-2013, 10:34 PM
That gives me a maximum of 100 10c super bets :)

olddaddy
11-21-2013, 10:56 PM
What is the minimum bankroll with dollar straights, .50 pks, .50 tris, dollar dds, dollar ex, .10 supers, not to be destined to go bust?

thaskalos
11-21-2013, 11:14 PM
What is the minimum bankroll with dollar straights, .50 pks, .50 tris, dollar dds, dollar ex, .10 supers, not to be destined to go bust?

$1 win -- $30
.50 pick 3 -- $120
.50 pick 4 -- $360
$1 ex -- $120
$1 dd -- $80
.10 super -- $202.50

These are the bare minimum requirements, IMO...if you don't want to find yourself on the outside looking in, in no time flat.

Make no mistake about it, the odds are against you even with these bankroll recommendations...but at least they give you the opportunity to "get lucky". :)

CincyHorseplayer
11-21-2013, 11:19 PM
How about $10 to start as you said,but for each track you want to play that day.You have basically 5-$2 win bets per card.

That's essentially how my days end up unfolding and fill in other wagers from there.(higher win wagers though)

olddaddy
11-21-2013, 11:26 PM
$1 win -- $30
.50 pick 3 -- $120
.50 pick 4 -- $360
$1 ex -- $120
$1 dd -- $80
.10 super -- $202.50

These are the bare minimum requirements, IMO...if you don't want to find yourself on the outside looking in, in no time flat.

Make no mistake about it, the odds are against you even with these bankroll recommendations...but at least they give you the opportunity to "get lucky". :)

Thanks, Ill remember this and give it a try

Ocala Mike
11-22-2013, 05:05 PM
Well, I started with $11.05 today, and I've been betting at 5 tracks (AQU, WO, CD, BHP, and HAW). Still going at it as we speak, up $50.


Starting Balance $0.05
Deposit $11.00
Refunded Wagers $2.60
Wagers -$283.10
Winnings $330.80
Withdrawal -$53.35
Ending Balance $8.00

Admittedly, I am an action-happy fool, but look at that "churn."

Stillriledup
11-22-2013, 05:06 PM
Well, I started with $11.05 today, and I've been betting at 5 tracks (AQU, WO, CD, BHP, and HAW). Still going at it as we speak, up $50.


Starting Balance $0.05
Deposit $11.00
Refunded Wagers $2.60
Wagers -$283.10
Winnings $330.80
Withdrawal -$53.35
Ending Balance $8.00

Admittedly, I am an action-happy fool, but look at that "churn."

Ok, Keep rolling!! :ThmbUp:

Stillriledup
11-22-2013, 05:13 PM
It's virtually impossible not to go broke when you start off with only $10...no matter how you go about it. The minimum betting units are just too high for this low a starting "bankroll".

If you held an NTRA qualifier type of contest and 200 expert contest players signed up and they each had 10 dollars to start with and the contest was hypothetically a year-long contest, wouldnt there be at least 1 of the 200 people who has run the 10 bucks up into the thousands?

pondman
11-22-2013, 06:51 PM
If I had a shot with $14 (7 x $2 to win), then I'm sure I could spot play to a positive return. 5 x $2 would be cutting it close--. It would depend on when I entered the cycle. I'd have to choose between the lower ROI to make sure I didn't go bust, and a higher paying ROI. I think I could do it with the Higher paying method at $14 (I do them both), but with only 5 plays it might get tight. And then I have a high flying ROI that I wouldn't be confident with just 5 plays.

And all of my plays would be at +5-1.

I'd use equibase entries for free and and an ADW, being a no frill skinflint.

Ocala Mike
11-22-2013, 07:12 PM
Well, I'm a no frills skinflint myself, and I churned those bets using nothing but my DD/P-3 will pay system (look. Ma, no handicapping!). I was fortunate enough to hit a small exacta with my very first bet in the 2nd at AQU, or I would have tapped out at the start of the run.

Wound up the day up the $50, as BHP got the better of me (as it often does).

Tomorrow, I'll "handicap" off the DRF, and lose my cojones.

Stillriledup
11-22-2013, 08:32 PM
Well, I'm a no frills skinflint myself, and I churned those bets using nothing but my DD/P-3 will pay system (look. Ma, no handicapping!). I was fortunate enough to hit a small exacta with my very first bet in the 2nd at AQU, or I would have tapped out at the start of the run.

Wound up the day up the $50, as BHP got the better of me (as it often does).

Tomorrow, I'll "handicap" off the DRF, and lose my cojones.

That's a great tagline, "look ma, no handicapping!" you should use that as your tagline or signature.

raybo
11-23-2013, 02:18 PM
$10 huh? Whew, tall order! I'd probably play a 10 cent super in a shorter field, with a vulnerable favorite, with as much coverage on the top as $10 would allow me and still get good coverage on the bottom. I take 1 shot and I either bust out or double, triple, quadruple, etc., my bank in that race.

horseplayer
11-23-2013, 06:08 PM
That gives me a maximum of 100 10c super bets :)
:) a good one

letswastemoney
11-23-2013, 06:20 PM
There is no point in a show bet. If you can't hit a winner in at least 1 of 5 $2 win bets, you need to refine your handicapping methods before trying again.

thaskalos
11-23-2013, 06:36 PM
There is no point in a show bet. If you can't hit a winner in at least 1 of 5 $2 win bets, you need to refine your handicapping methods before trying again.
We can lose five straight win bets any day...no matter how good our handicapping is.

This game is not as predictable as some make it out to be.

letswastemoney
11-23-2013, 06:48 PM
We can lose five straight win bets any day...no matter how good our handicapping is.

This game is not as predictable as some make it out to be.
You could wait until another day for when you have a very good feeling, instead of forcing 5 races in one day just because the races are there.

Robert Fischer
11-23-2013, 06:54 PM
Say you bet fair-odds 2-1 shots (they win 1/3 of the time)

and you play an average of 10 win bets per calendar day (3,650 win bets / year)


You can lose as many as 20 win bets in a row in any one losing streak !

thaskalos
11-23-2013, 07:09 PM
You could wait until another day for when you have a very good feeling, instead of forcing 5 races in one day just because the races are there.
I no longer have good feelings or bad feelings about my bets.

The only feelings I am aware of at the track these days are the ones I attribute to some bad chinese food I might have eaten the night before.

Maximillion
11-23-2013, 07:10 PM
Say you bet fair-odds 2-1 shots (they win 1/3 of the time)

and you play an average of 10 win bets per calendar day (3,650 win bets / year)


You can lose as many as 20 win bets in a row in any one losing streak !

Some of the best months I had I lost more than 20 in a row...and this is win betting.

CincyHorseplayer
11-23-2013, 08:36 PM
I no longer have good feelings or bad feelings about my bets.

The only feelings I am aware of at the track these days are the ones I attribute to some bad chinese food I might have eaten the night before.

HAHA!!That's funny!

davew
11-23-2013, 09:01 PM
I have been kind of doing this on a few ADWs for the last couple years. They all have an aspect I like so I have not closed them.

I bet to win on 2-3 horses when the combined win% is 55-80% (with my estimation) and the odds justify it (will make money if any win).

raybo
11-24-2013, 02:05 PM
I have been kind of doing this on a few ADWs for the last couple years. They all have an aspect I like so I have not closed them.

I bet to win on 2-3 horses when the combined win% is 55-80% (with my estimation) and the odds justify it (will make money if any win).

That is the basics of my win program, multiple win bets that combine for a high hit rate, but the good average payouts must be there also, because you still experience short losing streaks, and low average payouts will put you in the red. There are specific tracks where I simply cannot use the win program with multiple win bets, the average win payouts just won't support a long term profit. But, you can churn the heck out of your bankroll with multiple bets, so rebates can often bring you up above the black/red line.

pondman
11-25-2013, 01:19 PM
At several tracks, starting on Jan 1, a higher level of maiden winners repeat. I'm positive I could stay with that type of bet alone for a year (sifting through maiden winners only)-- and buy my wife a steak dinner by the end of the year by betting $2 x 60 singles. Not sure I could get it done with just 5 spots. This isn't going to make you a fortune.

Again...you can't make it by playing what everyone else plays. If you never get double digit odds, then you aren't going to make it.

johnhannibalsmith
11-25-2013, 03:00 PM
When is Stillwoundup going to start us up a contest with this premise?

As long as I can pick on Sat-Wed... assuming I lasted one day... I'd like to mess around with this and see how others would approach it as well.

cutchemist42
11-25-2013, 03:31 PM
$1 win -- $30
.50 pick 3 -- $120
.50 pick 4 -- $360
$1 ex -- $120
$1 dd -- $80
.10 super -- $202.50

These are the bare minimum requirements, IMO...if you don't want to find yourself on the outside looking in, in no time flat.

Make no mistake about it, the odds are against you even with these bankroll recommendations...but at least they give you the opportunity to "get lucky". :)

This is actually a good suggestion.

cutchemist42
11-25-2013, 04:12 PM
In relation also to Raybo, I've begun a 2 horse win bet and have been liking the results so far.

Stillriledup
11-25-2013, 04:27 PM
In relation also to Raybo, I've begun a 2 horse win bet and have been liking the results so far.

A lot of this is psychological, people feel that they're betting against themselves if they bet more than one horse to win, but there's no difference between betting a few horses to win and boxing 3 horses in an exacta, if you bet more than one combo, you're 'betting against yourself'. Personally, i have no problems betting more than one horse to win, especially if they're huge longshots.

pondman
11-25-2013, 05:13 PM
Personally, i have no problems betting more than one horse to win, especially if they're huge longshots.

Q: Are you valuing the bets as 2 singles? Or a combo?

There are a few occasions, less than 15 per year, when I'll see 2 horses in a race that meet my 40% requirements. I'll bet them both if they are +5-1. But I consider them singles. I don't have any methods that cross over to other methods (My methods are unique for each condition), so they are going to be valued into the yearly tallies as singles for that condition type at each individual track.

Stillriledup
11-25-2013, 06:49 PM
Q: Are you valuing the bets as 2 singles? Or a combo?

There are a few occasions, less than 15 per year, when I'll see 2 horses in a race that meet my 40% requirements. I'll bet them both if they are +5-1. But I consider them singles. I don't have any methods that cross over to other methods (My methods are unique for each condition), so they are going to be valued into the yearly tallies as singles for that condition type at each individual track.

I play "Create an entry". If i love two 4-1 shots and can't seperate them, i bet them both equally and just pretend they are 1 and 1a at 3-2.

thaskalos
11-25-2013, 06:54 PM
I play "Create an entry". If i love two 4-1 shots and can't seperate them, i bet them both equally and just pretend they are 1 and 1a at 3-2.

Not much of a bargain...IMO

Stillriledup
11-25-2013, 08:34 PM
Not much of a bargain...IMO

No, but if i feel that its a "2 horse race" than 3-2 is value.

I just used that as an example, i'm rarely betting two somewhat short prices to win, usually one of them is a bomb.

Maximillion
11-25-2013, 09:30 PM
No, but if i feel that its a "2 horse race" than 3-2 is value.

I just used that as an example, i'm rarely betting two somewhat short prices to win, usually one of them is a bomb.


If you love 2 4-1 shots in a race and one of the wins thats `150 % profit....nothin wrong with that.

Stillriledup
11-25-2013, 09:31 PM
If you love 2 4-1 shots in a race and one of the wins thats `150 % profit....nothin wrong with that.

True. Sometimes two horses i've been waiting for show up in the same race, what's a fella to do?? Sometimes two win bets are in order. :)

pondman
11-26-2013, 01:05 PM
I play "Create an entry". If i love two 4-1 shots and can't seperate them, i bet them both equally and just pretend they are 1 and 1a at 3-2.

Q. Aren't combo win bets really singles that exceeds their expected value. In a combo you might bet a similiar horse at 15-1 but pass at 2-1. If you think one horse has a 40% chance of a win does it really knock that value of another horse? Because a horse is 2-1, does it knock the expected value of a 40% horse at 15-1?

raybo
11-26-2013, 02:13 PM
A lot of this is psychological, people feel that they're betting against themselves if they bet more than one horse to win, but there's no difference between betting a few horses to win and boxing 3 horses in an exacta, if you bet more than one combo, you're 'betting against yourself'. Personally, i have no problems betting more than one horse to win, especially if they're huge longshots.

Agree. Much of the reason lots of players refuse to bet multiple horses to win is because they have always been told that it won't work, and it won't, if, you're constantly betting lower odds horses. So, it depends on what kinds of horses you typically have as your 2 or 3 contenders, and, what the average win payouts are at each track you play. If your program is designed to test, and exploit, specific tracks with higher average win payouts, and your contenders are not, in any way, tied to low odds horses only, then such a system is indeed viable and profitable. But, you have to be committed to it, completely, or you will not play consistently and the higher costs will eventually eat you up.

Would you be averse to playing a maximum 3 horse win bet system that produces a 60% hit rate, with a median payout of $9+, and an average payout of $12+, and a 4+% rebate? Do the math.

Stillriledup
11-26-2013, 04:45 PM
Agree. Much of the reason lots of players refuse to bet multiple horses to win is because they have always been told that it won't work, and it won't, if, you're constantly betting lower odds horses. So, it depends on what kinds of horses you typically have as your 2 or 3 contenders, and, what the average win payouts are at each track you play. If your program is designed to test, and exploit, specific tracks with higher average win payouts, and your contenders are not, in any way, tied to low odds horses only, then such a system is indeed viable and profitable. But, you have to be committed to it, completely, or you will not play consistently and the higher costs will eventually eat you up.

Would you be averse to playing a maximum 3 horse win bet system that produces a 60% hit rate, with a median payout of $9+, and an average payout of $12+, and a 4+% rebate? Do the math.

Whenever i see a 2-1 or 5-2 shot that i love, i think of it terms of a Money Line sports bet....+250 on the ML is a good price in sportsbetting land. I ask myself, "is this 5-2 shot as good of a bet as a 9 Pt underdog in the NBA who is +250 on the ML to actually win the game?"

Its funny how some of us will make sports bets at -110 on both sides and if an NFL team is getting a boatload of points, like the Bucs were getting in Seattle recently, people will be thinking that taking the Bucs at +1500 on the ML (15-1 odds) is a terrible bet, but would have no problem boxing up an exacta with some longshots and essentially betting on a "Team" that's higher odds than the Bucs going into Seattle and winning outright as a 16 pt dog.

iwearpurple
11-27-2013, 01:03 PM
I have an account with $7.25 left.

I am going to try to make this grow with show bets. May only bet once a day, or once a month, but will post each selection.

11/27/13
CD
Race 2
$2 S # 6 - Thunder Affair

Ocala Mike
11-27-2013, 02:01 PM
Tough beat: I made that horse my key in supers; wanted him higher on the ticket, but even running 4th in a 6-horse race got me $28 for my 20c super.

raybo
11-27-2013, 03:10 PM
I have an account with $7.25 left.

I am going to try to make this grow with show bets. May only bet once a day, or once a month, but will post each selection.

11/27/13
CD
Race 2
$2 S # 6 - Thunder Affair

Now you have $5.25 (plus any rebate you might get) now what are you going to do? In other words, no horse is guaranteed to finish in the money, regardless of what you think of them personally.

Stillriledup
11-27-2013, 03:45 PM
Now you have $5.25 (plus any rebate you might get) now what are you going to do? In other words, no horse is guaranteed to finish in the money, regardless of what you think of them personally.

He bet a 13-1 shot to show in a race where if he was in the money, he was only going to get 2.20 or 2.40 anyway.

iwearpurple
11-27-2013, 05:17 PM
He bet a 13-1 shot to show in a race where if he was in the money, he was only going to get 2.20 or 2.40 anyway.

Actually, it would have paid $3.00 or $3.20. The 4 horse paid $3.00 with more money bet to show than the 6.

Longshot6977
11-28-2013, 10:30 AM
My friend always has a very small bankroll, like $50 for the day, well, sometimes the week or month. He always asks me how to increase it even by a small amount without much handicapping effort. I tell him to look at the top 3 choices and bet the horse that has the LEAST amount of show money by a pretty good margin. Since it is in the top 3 choices, it has a pretty good chance of coming in the money. Its small show pool gets him a slightly bigger payoff than the other 2 choices.

Another friend bets 3 or 4 horses to show in each race (he's not much of a handicapper at all) and likes the idea of cashing a alot. He starts with a very small bankroll too and many times makes a profit for the day.

antigeekess
11-29-2013, 09:36 AM
Agree. Much of the reason lots of players refuse to bet multiple horses to win is because they have always been told that it won't work, and it won't, if, you're constantly betting lower odds horses. So, it depends on what kinds of horses you typically have as your 2 or 3 contenders, and, what the average win payouts are at each track you play. If your program is designed to test, and exploit, specific tracks with higher average win payouts, and your contenders are not, in any way, tied to low odds horses only, then such a system is indeed viable and profitable. But, you have to be committed to it, completely, or you will not play consistently and the higher costs will eventually eat you up.

Raybo, I see that last year you were making queries to find a site with average win payouts. Did you find it?

You and I had an email exchange about 2 years ago where I tried to use your program, but had some kind of computer issue. Perhaps it's time to try again. :)

DeltaLover
11-29-2013, 10:52 AM
My friend always has a very small bankroll, like $50 for the day, well, sometimes the week or month. He always asks me how to increase it even by a small amount without much handicapping effort. I tell him to look at the top 3 choices and bet the horse that has the LEAST amount of show money by a pretty good margin. Since it is in the top 3 choices, it has a pretty good chance of coming in the money. Its small show pool gets him a slightly bigger payoff than the other 2 choices.

Another friend bets 3 or 4 horses to show in each race (he's not much of a handicapper at all) and likes the idea of cashing a alot. He starts with a very small bankroll too and many times makes a profit for the day.

Your friend with the fifty dollars bankroll, has to understand that continuing to do so, just makes him a recreational bettor with no chance to increase his bankroll anytime soon. If he really wants to make profit betting horses, he needs to understand that he has to spend money and time researching the game and then put together a significant bankroll to take his chances.

As far as your other friend who bets four horses to show in a race, he certainly needs to improve his skills although I doudt if he can really do it (both for educational and IQ issues).

raybo
11-29-2013, 12:38 PM
Raybo, I see that last year you were making queries to find a site with average win payouts. Did you find it?

You and I had an email exchange about 2 years ago where I tried to use your program, but had some kind of computer issue. Perhaps it's time to try again. :)

Not really, I was kind of hoping HANA would make that available to all of us, as I think it's very important knowledge for anyone pursuing net profit. I use Rick's Longshots chart to get an idea which tracks have better payouts for win.

One of the database guys could produce those stats very easy also.

Capper Al
11-29-2013, 02:31 PM
I was doing some thinking about betting strategy and was asking myself how you would go about taking 10 bucks and running with it. (assuming 0 rebate for arguments sake).

You have 5 two dollar win bets. OR, do you start off betting place or show?

Now, the criteria is that you have as long as you want to make your first wager, you can wait months if you have to, but 10 dollars is all you ever have to play horses and if you lose it, you're out of the sport forever.

Do you wait for a "sure thing" at Mountaineer or Charlestown and bet the entire ten to show and turn the 10 into 11?

Do you wait to bet a really strong 4-5 type of horse to place and try to make a 1 dollar profit and run the bankroll from 10 to 11?

What would be your strategy in this scenario?

Personally, i think i would probably wait for a really strong 2-1 or 3-1 type horse and bet 2 dollars to win...and if i lost, i would re-evaluate my next move with an 8 dollar bankroll. But, that's probably how i would approach it, unless any of you has a better idea?



I'd say buy a burger and a beer and enjoy yourself and take the change and buy a lotto ticket. The odds of not tapping out are next to impossible. If one persists, they would have to bet on favorites that they liked to place. That means your selection and the favorite are the same horse. You should probably also throw in the ML favorite into your consensus play with the favorite also. I would suggest a $2.00 place bet only. You might make a run of it and last 20 or 30 bets. If your consensus click two races a card that would be about 10 or 15 Saturdays.

CincyHorseplayer
11-29-2013, 03:55 PM
Your friend with the fifty dollars bankroll, has to understand that continuing to do so, just makes him a recreational bettor with no chance to increase his bankroll anytime soon. If he really wants to make profit betting horses, he needs to understand that he has to spend money and time researching the game and then put together a significant bankroll to take his chances.

As far as your other friend who bets four horses to show in a race, he certainly needs to improve his skills although I doudt if he can really do it (both for educational and IQ issues).

This is completely true and I know from experience.I think about all the years I wasted with this approach.Just putting in $100-200 and putting it back in my pocket when I left.I had some great meets and years where I shopped,partied,lived life to the fullest off horseracing money.It was all recreational betting.If I had kept even 50% of my winnings in an untouchable kitty my bankroll would be sick right now.

barn32
11-29-2013, 03:58 PM
Regardless of what some posters have said about it being impossible to run $10 into something, I still think this would be an excellent idea for a contest.

The idea is to pick your very best plays and bet sparringly.

At the end of the year, or until there is only one player left, someone will do very well. Those that lose their patience and bet very quickly will go broke very quickly.

{I used to enter a football handicapping contest every year. Rules were simple: just pick one game per week--no point spread. Just pick the winner. It's a lot harder than it looks, but someone always makes it very deep, but not necessarily all the way.}

Longshot6977
11-29-2013, 04:25 PM
Your friend with the fifty dollars bankroll, has to understand that continuing to do so, just makes him a recreational bettor with no chance to increase his bankroll anytime soon. If he really wants to make profit betting horses, he needs to understand that he has to spend money and time researching the game and then put together a significant bankroll to take his chances.

As far as your other friend who bets four horses to show in a race, he certainly needs to improve his skills although I doudt if he can really do it (both for educational and IQ issues).

Agree 100%. The $50 friend knows he is just a recreational player and will rarely show a profit. The show bettor friend already knows he can't handicap and doesn't really want to (not an IQ issue); he'd rather sit at the bar when making these show bets. But isn't it nice to have players like these willing to give up their money so easily to us?

raybo
11-29-2013, 04:25 PM
With such a small starting bankroll, the name of the game is luck. If you get lucky early you can make it. If you get unlucky early, you probably won't make it, regardless of the method used or the bet type made. That's why I stated that I'd play a 10 cent super with as much coverage, on top and bottom as I can purchase for $10. Either I get lucky and win or I go home. If we did have such a contest, I'm sure someone would do something similar, get lucky early with a big payout or a couple of mid sized payouts, and would then have a distinct advantage from that point on. That's why I don't enter bankroll growth contests, there is too much luck involved. It's kind of like the play chip/freeroll (do they still have those?) tournaments in poker online, there's always several people going all in early hoping to get some others to do the same, and hope to get lucky and win the hand. Then, if they change gears and slow down to play good solid poker they are in a much better position to at least cash.

Robert Goren
11-30-2013, 09:46 PM
I would not want to score it, but the $10 challenge might not be a bad idea. Everybody starts out with $10 and bets it any way it likes for say 3 or 4 months. The only rule would be that that your bets over the run of the contest total at least $10. If you lose your $10, you are out. No minimum bets. No maximum bets.

iwearpurple
12-04-2013, 04:06 PM
I have an account with $7.25 left.

I am going to try to make this grow with show bets. May only bet once a day, or once a month, but will post each selection.

11/27/13
CD
Race 2
$2 S # 6 - Thunder Affair

LOST

Next Bet

12/7/13
AQU
Race 9
$2 S # 4 - St. Sincere

iwearpurple
12-04-2013, 04:25 PM
LOST

Next Bet

12/7/13
AQU
Race 9
$2 S # 4 - St. Sincere

LOST
Next

12/4/13
LRL
Race 9
$2 S # 8 - Stormin City

raybo
12-04-2013, 04:47 PM
LOST
Next

12/4/13
LRL
Race 9
$2 S # 8 - Stormin City

Good luck! That $7.25 is looking pretty slim about now. Down to $3.25, or 1 more bet, if you lose this one. I think you'll find that growing a bankroll with show bets is probably not going to work for you.

iwearpurple
12-04-2013, 05:00 PM
Good luck! That $7.25 is looking pretty slim about now. Down to $3.25, or 1 more bet, if you lose this one. I think you'll find that growing a bankroll with show bets is probably not going to work for you.

I really didn't think this was going to work, but since I had just a few dollars left in this account, I wanted to try. I am now up to $4.25 after winning the last bet, so I have at least 2 bets left.

pondman
12-04-2013, 05:47 PM
I really didn't think this was going to work.

Show bets-- that's brutal-- asking to be spanked.

Don't want that for anyone.

raybo
12-04-2013, 05:58 PM
I really didn't think this was going to work, but since I had just a few dollars left in this account, I wanted to try. I am now up to $4.25 after winning the last bet, so I have at least 2 bets left.

Yeah, the problem is that your hit rate has to be so high because of the lousy show payouts that it would be very hard to retain that hit rate. And, if you're betting horses that will pay well for show, typically those horses chances of showing are not high enough to produce a profit, even with the higher payouts, and especially with such a low starting bankroll. You would have to either be very good with higher odds horses and highly disciplined, or get very lucky, very early. You would probably be better off betting very good horses to win that typically pay low. At least your hit rate would be relatively high and you might string enough winners together to build the bankroll high enough to start looking for more value in the horses you bet.

Building a bankroll with such a low starting amount is a daunting task, regardless of how you approach it, IMO.

But, who knows, you might just do it long enough to get out of the extremely low bankroll problems. If you do survive a while, be prepared to change gears quickly, because the show bet thing will not last over time, that has been tried by many and to my knowledge has never sustained itself.

Good luck!!!

whodoyoulike
12-04-2013, 06:01 PM
I really didn't think this was going to work, but since I had just a few dollars left in this account, I wanted to try. I am now up to $4.25 after winning the last bet, so I have at least 2 bets left.


Your last winning bet, did the horse W, P or S?

iwearpurple
12-04-2013, 06:58 PM
Your last winning bet, did the horse W, P or S?

Placed, pd 4.20 to Place, 3.00 to Show

whodoyoulike
12-04-2013, 07:22 PM
Placed, pd 4.20 to Place, 3.00 to Show


Forgot to ask, what were the odds?

letswastemoney
12-04-2013, 07:43 PM
Show bets are much much more difficult to sustain a profit with because you have to be perfect all the time.

There are few reasons to make a show bet, other than when there is a bridgejumping situation. You're cheating yourself out of a win payoff.

letswastemoney
12-04-2013, 08:05 PM
A few weeks ago, I lost a pick 4 at Aqueduct and was disgusted with my betting. I deposited $10 into my account and bet the horse I had in my pick 4 for the last leg, Rap d' Oro on Nov. 17, and he won.

From that point, I've tried to concentrate solely on win bets, even though here and there I'll deviate into exactas and other stuff.

Right now I'm at $26.

The highest point was $85, after Hip Four Sixtynine had won at Delta Downs.

The lowest point was $8, which was this morning until I hit a $4 win bet on Crimson Knight at Tampa Bay.

whodoyoulike
12-04-2013, 08:32 PM
A few weeks ago, I lost a pick 4 at Aqueduct and was disgusted with my betting. I deposited $10 into my account and bet the horse I had in my pick 4 for the last leg, Rap d' Oro on Nov. 17, and he won.

From that point, I've tried to concentrate solely on win bets, even though here and there I'll deviate into exactas and other stuff.

Right now I'm at $26.

The highest point was $85, after Hip Four Sixtynine had won at Delta Downs.

The lowest point was $8, which was this morning until I hit a $4 win bet on Crimson Knight at Tampa Bay.

Not bad. I'm intrigued by the challenge this might offer me. I've been trying to force myself to be more disciplined in my betting. Maybe I'll try it for the remainder of this year.

pondman
12-05-2013, 12:44 PM
From that point, I've tried to concentrate solely on win bets, even though here and there I'll deviate into exactas and other stuff.

.

Looks to me as if you'd be a good spot player at +5-1, with consistent units. Those are the bets to make, even if you pass on 99% of all races. Your 2-1 and 3-1 are basically a Push. I'd look to see where in fact you are making money.

letswastemoney
12-05-2013, 04:20 PM
Looks to me as if you'd be a good spot player at +5-1, with consistent units. Those are the bets to make, even if you pass on 99% of all races. Your 2-1 and 3-1 are basically a Push. I'd look to see where in fact you are making money.
I've thought about that. It does seem as if I'm just looking for action when I go for those 2/1 shots.