Some early DERBY stats

[fmhealth]

Thought I'd post some observations based upon the last 11 KD winners.

1-All winners had their highest Beyer or had only one Beyer higher number preceeding the Derby.

2-All had preps around two turns.

3-In these final preps, 3 won, 6 ran second & 2 were forth.

4-All winners had run a Beyer of at least 100.

5-Six winners came in riding ASCENDING Beyers, three had DECENDING Beyers & two had the same Beyer.

6-No horse won the KD in the past 11 years coming into the race with a DECENDING Beyer of more than 5 points.

7-Only ONE WINNER (Sea Hero) had even RACED in the BC JUVENILE (he finished 7th).

8-ALL winners had AT LEAST 5 career starts.

9-ALL had AT LEAST ONE START in April

10-ALL had at least one race as a 2 yr old.

11-ALL had at least THREE races as a 3 yr old.

More anaylysis as the Big Day draws closer.

[Dave Schwartz]

Very nice work.

Thanks.

Dave Schwartz

[Derek2U]

its the 2nd greatest day in racing (breeders cup is #1) but I'm
sure I have the winner among 3 contenders ... im ~~ 99% sure.
but hey its a long way off ... look what happned to WYNN DOT COM ... a sadness comes when that stuff happens.

[PaceAdvantage]

Very interesting stats...I look forward to your additional analyses as the big day draws near!

[The_Knight_Sky]

For those of us who like to do our 'cappin the old fashioned way...
Pattern recognition techniques can be used on Derby Day after studying these last 10 Derby winners.

Great work by the super Daily Racing Form guys
when they presented this .pdf file at their Kentucky Derby site:

CLICK: Lifetime Past Performances of the last 10 Derby winners (http://www.drf.com/tc/trail/2004/derbywinners.pdf) :)

[ceejay]

Originally posted by fmhealth
or had only one Beyer higher number preceeding the Derby.


I'm not sure what you mean here. Can you give me an example of one that meets that criteria?

[fmhealth]

Sorry for the confusion. Here are some examples. Monarchos had a 103 Beyer in his race preceeding the Derby. He had only one Beyer at a higher number which was a 105.

Sea Hero had a 91 before the Derby( he actually ran a 91 twice). At an earlier point in his career he ran a 99.

Grindstone ran a 100 right before the Derby. His charts show a 102 before that.

Real Quiet had a 107 Beyer before the Derby. A 108 in an earlier race.

So my point is that either the race BEFORE the KD was the highest Beyer OR there was ONE BEYER NUMBER HIGHER RUN somewhere in his career. Hope this helps.

BTW, using the 18 point "filter" that I concocked last year. I came up with only TWO QUALIFIERS. E/M & F/C. Threw out F/C because he was a gelding & a NY Bred. My o my !!

[OTM Al]

Can add to that only one favorite (Fusaichi Pegasus) has won in the last 10 years and the average odds on the winner was 14.2-1

[andicap]

I've hit Funny Cide, Monarchos, Grindstone and some others recently by just taking horses with strong 2/3 fractions and speed ratings that were in contention. I end up with two or three horses, but one of them always runs strongly at a price.

Last year Ten Most Wanted was top choice and FC was about third. I'll take 17-1 (was that it?) on my 3rd choice any day. Of course I screwed up the betting and focused most of my exotic keys on TMW, but what else is now?

Two years ago, War Emblem was the exception although he had strong 2/3 figures. Figured like most others he would in speed duel.

[depalma13]

Here are the fourteen angles I use to find my Derby pick. Every winner since 1990, except Funny Cide, has had at least 13 of the 14 characteristics. Note: Funny Cide scored a 12 missing the Graded Stakes win and his manhood.

1) A win at age two

2) 3 - 4 races since January 1st

3) At least one 1 1/8 mile prep

4) Finished at least 3rd in their final prep

5) Must be an early nominee

6) can't be gelded

7) At least 5 life time starts

8) Last race must be greater than 8 furlongs

9) Must have at least 16 points in its DP

10) Can have no more than two 0's in it's DP

11) At least one graded stakes win

12) At least one triple digit speed figure

13) last prep must be in April

14) Can't have Raise A Native in the broodmare sireline.

Bonus angle:

Final quarter mile of 9 furlong prep must be run in less than 26 seconds. 24 out of the last 26 winners had this angle, incuding Funny Cide.

[fmhealth]

A remarkable 87% of all Derby winners in the past 31 years had 3 or 4 starts as a 3 yr. old.

Just another historical perspective that may be useful on 5/1.

[Larry Hamilton]

I used to have all these angles sitting and waiting for the derby to filter. I threw them in the crapper the day a claimer won.

Let me tell you why. Let's say that you drag up 5 angles, each working 90% of the time. Since they must all work, the probability of picking the winter with this filters technique only is .9*.9*.9*.9*.9 that means you will win approximately 60% of the time. Now if you have 10 angles and they all fire at .9, then you probability of winning is .36% and if you have 15 angles then your probability of winning is 21%. You never hear this discussed.

Secondly, it takes more than 10 years to get an acceptable sample to predict the .9 mentioned above. Though, even if you had every race, it would only be marginally adequate.

Having said all that, the best filtering techique is to determine which of of the factors is strongest and use ONLY that one. Now that you can do in the 30 minutes between races!

[Niko]

Anyone remember the Dosage and Experimental Handicap Theory.
That which predicts the past doesn't predict the future but it's the best place to start, only because I don't know where else to start

[Tom]

I use pace on the Derby. I use only Gr1 or GR2 races around two turns at a mile an an eighth. I play the top two or three Sustained Pace horses, depending on the odds.
The top Beyer horse is alway a side bet.

[OTM Al]

The dosage was under 4 on the DI and the experimental handicap was within 10 lbs of the high weight. Unfortunately, this second misses figs on late bloomers like Eddington, as he was not listed in the experimental handicap.

[Larry Hamilton]

If I take my own advice and use only one filter, I pick the dose/EHP method and box all that qualify for a buck.

[TRM]

Another factoid to keep in mind:

89% of all Derby winners were in the money in a major derby prep race. The ones I checked were Ark D, Blue Grass, Flamingo, Florida Derby, FOY, Gotham, Hutcheson, Ill D, Lexington, Louisiana D, Rebel, Risen Star, San Felipe and Santa Anita D.

Of those contenders that won a prep race, 56% went on to win the Derby.

Good Luck to everyone ;)

TRM

[ceejay]

Thought I'd post some observations based upon the last 11 KD winners.

1-All winners had their highest Beyer or had only one Beyer higher number preceeding the Derby.

2-All had preps around two turns.

3-In these final preps, 3 won, 6 ran second & 2 were forth.

4-All winners had run a Beyer of at least 100.

5-Six winners came in riding ASCENDING Beyers, three had DECENDING Beyers & two had the same Beyer.

6-No horse won the KD in the past 11 years coming into the race with a DECENDING Beyer of more than 5 points.

7-Only ONE WINNER (Sea Hero) had even RACED in the BC JUVENILE (he finished 7th).

8-ALL winners had AT LEAST 5 career starts.

9-ALL had AT LEAST ONE START in April

10-ALL had at least one race as a 2 yr old.

11-ALL had at least THREE races as a 3 yr old.

More anaylysis as the Big Day draws closer.
Updating with 04-06.

1-All winners had their highest Beyer or had only one Beyer higher number preceeding the Derby.

2-All had preps around two turns.

3-In these final preps, 5 won, 6 ran second & 2 were forth.

4-All winners except Giacomo had run a Beyer of at least 100.

5-8 winners came in riding ASCENDING Beyers, 4 had DECENDING Beyers & two had the same Beyer.

6-No horse won the KD in the past 11 years coming into the race with a DECENDING Beyer of more than 5 points.

7-Only ONE WINNER (Sea Hero) had even RACED in the BC JUVENILE (he finished 7th).

8-ALL winners except Barbaro had AT LEAST 5 career starts.

9-ALL had AT LEAST ONE START in April

10-ALL had at least one race as a 2 yr old.

11-ALL had at least THREE races as a 3 yr old.