Follow The Money

[Tara73]

What's more significant a horse getting bet as a favorite in the exotic pool and not in the win pool or a horse getting bet as a favorite in the win pool and not the exotic pool?

[Stillriledup]

Depends on track, but i would generally say the smarter money is in the exotic pools. You might have a horse go off at even money and be "dead" in exactas because its a Baze/Hollendorfer horse so you know that the exacta board is "saying" that the horse is just taking win money because of the human connections. Not in all cases, but the best bet would be betting on a win overlay if that horse is hammered in Exactas.

[olddaddy]

Exacta pools are some what hidden, Win odds are front and center, so Ill go with the exacta choice.

[pondman]

Depends on track, but i would generally say the smarter money is in the exotic pools. You might have a horse go off at even money and be "dead" in exactas because its a Baze/Hollendorfer horse so you know that the exacta board is "saying" that the horse is just taking win money because of the human connections. Not in all cases, but the best bet would be betting on a win overlay if that horse is hammered in Exactas.

As a handicapper you've got to understand that some connections bet and other do not; Some of it's floating on the crowd. And at a smaller track the smart money (the connections) will be in the exotics, probably deeper into a tri or double, so you won't see it.

I'd take the opposite view for GG. The smart money, especially on a Baze/Hollendorfer connection bet, won't be dabbling further than their own horse. Trying to get over the $7 payout on the win by going deeper in the exotics may lead the connection into a negative, even if their horse should win. That's a unique situation with a super jock, that can go from a $5 win to a negative. As for you the gambler, it's a bet to avoid at both the win and exacta.

[Ocala Mike]

The thread title answers the question you posed:

The LARGER pool rules; I believe for almost every venue, that would be the exacta pool.

[DeltaLover]

Based in how the game is played today, I think there is little value trying to compare the two pools. Both are changing dramatically after the post time making it next to impossible to extract and valid conclusion based on them.

[Ocala Mike]

Based in how the game is played today, I think there is little value trying to compare the two pools. Both are changing dramatically after the post time making it next to impossible to extract and valid conclusion based on them.

I tend to agree with this. I believe a more valuable comparison might be between win pools and rolling double or rolling P/3 pools. I think we pretty much exhausted that in another thread not long ago.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

The exacata pool is the more accurate indicator, IMHO.

I have noticed time and again that horses being bet (especially early) in the WIN pool but NOT showing corresponding wager amounts on top in the exacta pool tend not to run very well (i.e., less than 20 percent of the time).

For example, a horse that has a reasonable looking M/L of 10-1, is 3-1 in the Win pool, but has exacta probables more like the 10-1 level, often run like they're, well, 10-1. I've attributed this to a lone wolf connection/owner/fan of a horse that's miscalculated its chances, and has made a large win bet.

The reverse of this scenario - a horse being lower in odds in the exacta pool vs. the WIN pool - seems to more often indicate a runner that's live (i.e., runs well roughly half the time).

[Robert Fischer]

What's more significant a horse getting bet as a favorite in the exotic pool and not in the win pool or a horse getting bet as a favorite in the win pool and not the exotic pool?

The pools can hopefully give you some information about the public's opinion.

I like to first go back to the previous race and look at the Daily Double probables for the current race from the previous race favorite(s) (*If chalk won the previous race, you can just look up "Will Pays/DD).

You can look at the DD, the new race Will Pays, the EX probables, the DD probables to the next race chalk, the WPS pools...

I find the best clues are often not about the current favorites, but more geared toward separating the 3rd and 4th choice for example.

[taxicab]

I really like looking at the "probables" in the back half of the Doubles.
Especially with maiden races in the second half.

[Ocala Mike]

I really like looking at the "probables" in the back half of the Doubles.
Especially with maiden races in the second half.



Very strong on this myself. It is possible to sometimes catch a win overlay in these situations where the "theys" are alive good in the double, so the win bet is not made since it would be redundant. Presumably, "they" are betting the live horse in exactas, so there's a tie-in there to what the rest of this thread is about.

[Longshot6977]

What's more significant a horse getting bet as a favorite in the exotic pool and not in the win pool or a horse getting bet as a favorite in the win pool and not the exotic pool?

IMO, the answer is the exotic pool. It doesn't have to be the actual favorite in the exotic pool (I'll concentrate on the exacta), but should be taking a lot more money than other horses. A friend and I exploited this method from 1998-2000 every Saturday night. We watched the exacta pool willpays at larger tracks (works great at the Big M) and never used the PP's to sway our decisions. A horse had to be greater than 10-1 in the ML AND in the actual odds. Just watch the payoffs from 10MTP to 1 MTP. Sometimes our choices changed during the betting, but we were flexible with the choice if needed. It was profitable for several years. The horse(s) had to be used in the exactas heavily.

The trick was to make win and place bets on the horse(s), but not an exacta bet (since it had a much lower payoff). We were betting on 10-1 thru 30-1 bombs and many times they 'mysteriously' would come flying down the stretch (T-bred and harness) and make a fantastic effort to win or place(especially in harness). Of course, we noted which had a bad trip if they lost. We made about 3 or 4 bets per night at each track. Other bettors always wondered what we liked about the horse that was 'crap on paper'. I still use the method to this day and feel the 'smarter' money is in the exotic pools.

The daily double can be exploited in similar ways as mentioned.