11/20 Pick of the Day - Churchill Race 8

[letswastemoney]

Let's see if I can go 2 for 2!

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=8&param1=1360&param2=5984&param3=1078968)

Here is what I wrote on Facebook.

The synthetic flop will obviously turn a lot of people away from #9 Top Priority (20/1). But, this is dirt racing, so who cares about that race? Note the two dirt efforts came in sprints, and this is a route race.

Here are the three main points to think about: 1) The sire is Tiznow, which signals improvement will come in longer races. 2) The two "mild gain" and "late gain" comments in those dirt sprint races on the far right signals improvement in longer races. 3) This gelding is a full brother to Tiz Miz Sue, arguably the best or second best older dirt female in the country this year.

Fair value...I might rethink it if he dips below 5/1. 5/1 or higher for me.

[Racey]

I like the 2-1-8-5 tri bx

[letswastemoney]

I like the 2-1-8-5 tri bx
I bet on #8 Sneaky Blowout in his last start, thinking he might return to his best form when he had a couple of speed figures in the 90s. He got "blown out" by 13 lengths.

I have no idea why the ML oddsmaker made him 3/1 off that 13 length loss.

[Racey]

Yea he was well bet 1st start back...sure did not fire last time. Good luck !!

[overthehill]

interesting long shot. other plusses are the rocco sticks, horse shows some decent works and trainer is competent. air squadron will be tough to beat though.

[turninforhome10]

Insider tip. He is not what his sister is. Have connections at Cresran. He might be better going long, but I think that race 2 races back might be what his talent level is. Hobby is a good trainer,and long slower works have built stamina without risking soundness (3yo few starts= Your math). 9 hole is alot to ask. Tab for Oaklawn.
Just an opinion.
If McPeek's horse :7: gets out of the gate on time, throw out last race and 4 nice fitness works. Jock is cold. Sleeper with stout pedigree. Lots of professional maidens in this one.

[KidCapper]

I love the :8: in this spot. You can toss the 2 sprint tries as this one is bred to get better the longer they go. Fits the 2 sprints to a route pattern for Maker who hits at 22% with the move. Bullet work coming in and the red hot Leparoux takes the mount today. I'll take all of 3-1 on the ML here.

[letswastemoney]

Insider tip. He is not what his sister is. Have connections at Cresran. He might be better going long, but I think that race 2 races back might be what his talent level is. Hobby is a good trainer,and long slower works have built stamina without risking soundness (3yo few starts= Your math). 9 hole is alot to ask. Tab for Oaklawn.
Just an opinion.
If McPeek's horse :7: gets out of the gate on time, throw out last race and 4 nice fitness works. Jock is cold. Sleeper with stout pedigree. Lots of professional maidens in this one.

I'm guessing that's why they gelded him.

I'll give him a shot in this spot still. The pattern on paper looks like a horse wanting more distance, minus the synthetic flop.

The :7: is a complete mystery to me without any dirt starts. I see he is a sibling to Emotif, who has competed in nothing but turf and synthetic races, so it's hard for me to analyze if the sister likes dirt.

[turninforhome10]

I'm guessing that's why they gelded him.

I'll give him a shot in this spot still. The pattern on paper looks like a horse wanting more distance, minus the synthetic flop.

The :7: is a complete mystery to me without any dirt starts. I see he is a sibling to Emotif, who has competed in nothing but turf and synthetic races, so it's hard for me to analyze if the sister likes dirt.
I agree on the turf, but breeder is tops in Arg and looks like at private purchase. Think he might like the dirt. Basing the stoutness of pedigree on the distance records of his female ancestors and love Ride the Rails for distance and class.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/ebullition2
Dam of :7: is bred similar to dam of Asiatic Boy who was a monster winner for Not for Sale both carrying the influential Alanesian. http://www.pedigreequery.com/asiatic+boy.
Total hunch pedigree play.

[letswastemoney]

Hmm...nearly everyone was wrong on here (on the top slot anyway). Oh well. On to tomorrow.