Davidowitz's Syndicate

[antigeekess]

So, I got the email. Anybody in this and willing to admit it, either on the board or via PM?

Been griping for a while that my pockets aren't deep enough to play like I want. Looks tempting, but invariably when I let somebody else do my handicapping for me I end up pissed off, mostly at myself.

Thoughts?

[lamboguy]

if his stuff was so good, why would he need money from you?

[TheEdge07]

So, I got the email. Anybody in this and willing to admit it, either on the board or via PM?

Been griping for a while that my pockets aren't deep enough to play like I want. Looks tempting, but invariably when I let somebody else do my handicapping for me I end up pissed off, mostly at myself.

Thoughts?

Someone else selecting races with your money...handicapping is half the fun..in the long run it doesnt PAY

[traynor]

if his stuff was so good, why would he need money from you?

If it actually worked, spreading it around--at whatever price--would be the absolute bottom of a list of priorities. Much like "profitable" software applications and similar processes--dissemination dilutes profit. The value of information varies inversely with the number who have that information.

I am still spending (happily) the money I saved by ignoring an offer to participate in a wagering syndicate scheme 4 or 5 years ago that was supposed to be generating "seven figure incomes from rebates for its clients."

[horses4courses]

Got the email too.......he'll get zip from me.
That's not how I would ever go about trying to make money.
He must be tapioca.......

[classhandicapper]

Pooling money is a good idea for people without the bankroll or risk tolerance to bet the large sums required to spread around in multi race exotics.

The downside is that you aren't always going to agree with your partner(s) and there are additional costs associated with a syndicate like this.

First and foremost is that you should believe the group has the "best of it" and will make money.

So you weigh the pluses and minuses.

[Fingal]

Been griping for a while that my pockets aren't deep enough to play like I want. Looks tempting, but invariably when I let somebody else do my handicapping for me I end up pissed off, mostly at myself.



Many years ago a friend & I were putting in P4 tickets with another guy. To put it in simple terms, he was the general partner making all the decisions & we had the privilege of buying shares in his action. And as long as we were hitting 4 figure payoffs, things were all Rainbows & Sunshine.

But when he hit a cold streak, there was a building resentment on my part from making what became a weekly donation to someone elses losing ticket & then scrambling the rest of the day to recoup my loses, maybe make a couple bucks.

I lose my money through my decisions, fine.
It's when someone else loses mine that I have a problem.

Yeah it looks tempting, but just say no.

[thaskalos]

Here is what I think:

If a player is indeed profitable as a pick 6 fund-manager...then he doesn't have to reach out for new investors. This is not a new venture for Davidowitz...he has been saying for many years now that he has been the handicapper in a pick 6 betting syndicate . If it was a profitable enterprise...then, not only would his original investors remain -- but new investors would be begging him to let them aboard.

[antigeekess]

Well the consensus thus far is about what I expected. The way I read it, it is one-play-at-a-time and participants do get to pick and choose which ones to be involved in. Funding for individual plays has to reach a minimum of $1000 (which should buy a decent amount of coverage on a big Pick 4/5). Not crazy about this: "We will be set up to play Pick 6's with substantial carryovers up to a $3500 investment by the group." Up to? I guess a larger ticket would dilute individual profit too much? (And I assume it's a one-ticket play rather than spread tickets.)

I'm just sick enough of getting "close," -- only to get knocked out of a multirace sequence by a horse that I WOULD have included if not for cost, OR to have all the winners on different spread tickets -- to give it a shot for a little bit. I'm starting to feel like "Close" is my middle name. :bang:

[Dave Schwartz]

Note: The above post came up while I was writing mine. If this is merely a pooling of bankrolls idea, my post is on a completely different topic. It is about developing a whaling company.

As someone who has been involved with such arrangements, I can tell you that most of them come to nothing.

However, a couple of them have come to big time fruition.


if his stuff was so good, why would he need money from you?

The answer to this question is that if you are trying to raise your handle into the 10's of millions, it takes a significant infrastructure to do so. THAT is the answer.

Most of the successful whales started with an investment of $500k or more (not counting bankroll) to get things started.

It is like most other businesses: you invest your money, and (hopefully) it amounts to something.

Another thing... Most highly successful businesses start with a guy at the top that is NOT a technician in the business. They can hire expertise.

That is, in a new muffler franchise business, the guy who installs mufflers is not more likely to succeed over the business-schooled manager who has owned other successful businesses but knows nothing about mufflers.


That being said, the best guy to guide MY attempt to become a whale would not be me. It would be a deep-pocketed, successful business man who can see the potential and manage a team of employees/partners.

[antigeekess]

Here is what I think:

If a player is indeed profitable as a pick 6 fund-manager...then he doesn't have to reach out for new investors. This is not a new venture for Davidowitz...he has been saying for many years now that he has been the handicapper in a pick 6 betting syndicate . If it was a profitable enterprise...then, not only would his original investors remain -- but new investors would be begging him to let them aboard.

Which of course makes sense. And he does 'not' make mention of his strike rate. I haven't read anything by him yet. Any opinion on how comprehensive a handicapper he is?

I'm often mystified by how some of these "pros" apparently miss what seems to be rather obvious stuff on the PPs. (In fact, I sometimes wonder if their function isn't to throw the public off entirely, like the Brad Free situation where he says he hit a $40,000+ Pick 6 and wrote about it in the DRF, but then you look back at his public picks for the day and it's different horses than the ones that came in.)

I'd be a whole lot happier if I was betting with his money rather than him betting with mine. But somehow I don't think he'd go for it. :)

[thaskalos]

Which of course makes sense. And he does 'not' make mention of his strike rate. I haven't read anything by him yet. Any opinion on how comprehensive a handicapper he is?

I'm often mystified by how some of these "pros" apparently miss what seems to be rather obvious stuff on the PPs. (In fact, I sometimes wonder if their function isn't to throw the public off entirely, like the Brad Free situation where he says he hit a $40,000+ Pick 6 and wrote about it in the DRF, but then you look back at his public picks for the day and it's different horses than the ones that came in.)

I'd be a whole lot happier if I was betting with his money rather than him betting with mine. But somehow I don't think he'd go for it. :)

Davidowitz is a very knowledgable, very comprehensive handicapper.

But I know several very knowledgeable, very comprehensive handicappers...who are walking around with holes in their shoes.

[JimG]

But I know several very knowledgeable, very comprehensive handicappers...who are walking around with holes in their shoes.

What can I say, my feet like to breathe. :)

[mountainman]

This kind of proposal misses the point of why most people play horses. And that, my friends, is the thrill of watching one's OWN ideas, theories (and hunches) carried forth by magnificent beasts into take-no-prisoners technicolor ACTION.

Good lord, the allure of our game is no mystery: It's akin to spending 30 minutes on a highly personal screenplay and then seeing if Al Pacino ad-libs or sticks to his lines.

[antigeekess]

Based on a couple of these replies, I'm wondering if there's a line between the lines that has something to do with wager-structuring abilities or ability to calculate potential ROI, both of which are weak areas for me that I'm trying to address. Blind leading the blind?

I'm not sure if it's necessarily a businessman type that's needed, so much as a mathematician (who'd be a good businessman if his people skills weren't lousy).

[Exotic1]

What can I say, my feet like to breathe. :)

Oh S**T, funny stuff.

[antigeekess]

This kind of proposal misses the point of why most people play horses. And that, my friends, is the thrill of watching one's OWN ideas, theories (and hunches) carried forth by magnificent beasts into take-no-prisoners technicolor ACTION.

Good lord, the allure of our game is no mystery: It's akin to spending 30 minutes on a highly personal screenplay and then seeing if Al Pacino ad-libs or sticks to his lines.

I'm not most people. :)

And that darn Pacino is always getting out of order. I hate it when that happens.

[PhantomOnTour]

This kind of proposal misses the point of why most people play horses. And that, my friends, is the thrill of watching one's OWN ideas, theories (and hunches) carried forth by magnificent beasts into take-no-prisoners technicolor ACTION..
Bingo - my thoughts exactly.
Call me stubborn or a know-it-all, but I have a serious problem with betting someone else's opinions.
My money - my decision - my triumph or tragedy.

[antigeekess]

Bingo - my thoughts exactly.
Call me stubborn or a know-it-all, but I have a serious problem with betting someone else's opinions.
My money - my decision - my triumph or tragedy.

Oh, it's uncomfortable as hell handing over the reins. I STRONGLY prefer to drive, too.

But above being a stubborn, know-it-all, smug, arrogant egomaniac (all part of my charm), I'm a ultimately a pragmatist. Whatever works.

[thaskalos]

Bingo - my thoughts exactly.
Call me stubborn or a know-it-all, but I have a serious problem with betting someone else's opinions.
My money - my decision - my triumph or tragedy.

And yet...we wouldn't hesitate to hand our money over to a Peter Lynch or a Warrren Buffett, to manage it for us. :)

[mountainman]

I'm not most people. :)

And that darn Pacino is always getting out of order. I hate it when that happens.

hoooooooooYAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!

[PhantomOnTour]

And yet...we wouldn't hesitate to hand our money over to a Peter Lynch or a Warrren Buffett, to manage it for us. :)
They are experts in their field - so am I :D

[Pensacola Pete]

In my opinion, Davidowitz is taking a freeroll with other peoples' money. Take it as you like.

[Dan Montilion]

From the other side of this thread. I was sitting in my box on a rainy, rainy, windy day at Bay Meadows. I swear it was me the employees, Jocks and horses only that day. I was actually doing trip notes on the previous days continuos play on the in track feed. Two gentlemen come in front of my box and ask if I was DM, I said no. I asked why they told me they wanted DM to be their handicapper for pick 3 and 6. Pick 3 at that time were one a day and decent pots. So we agreed. Mind you I was not in any way putting myself out there for this.

First month we did very, very well. And then as always "it" happened. There was a huge carryover going into a friday night. Rain and wind again, we met at a local gin mill about mid afternoon. I laid out the ticket and approach. One of the gentlemen, who had never questioned a play or selection. Asks "what about this one?". I responded "the sire has had 120 of his offspring start on an off track and has had 2 wins. The trainer is 1% for two years and winless routing in the same time frame." I told him i went back off the form (remember those days? Cramer called it going to the garage for an answer.) the horse had been on off tracks 6 times and never been closer than 5 lengths at any call while trained by a real trainer. "we can leave him out". Everybody knows where this is going... yes the horse won. No tickets that night, of course we had half of the few 5's that night. Carry-over into saturday over 200K. I seen them one more time to get my cut, never seen them since.

[traynor]

Based on a couple of these replies, I'm wondering if there's a line between the lines that has something to do with wager-structuring abilities or ability to calculate potential ROI, both of which are weak areas for me that I'm trying to address. Blind leading the blind?

I'm not sure if it's necessarily a businessman type that's needed, so much as a mathematician (who'd be a good businessman if his people skills weren't lousy).

I think what is missing is the skill needed to consistently generate a profit from wagering. With that in hand, bankers, funding, managers, and all the rest can be selected at leisure. Remove that from the equation, and all the funding and management skills in the world are little more than a complex way to lose money.

Additionally, that skill in consistently generating a profit has to be sufficient to keep earning a profit with the addition of (hopefully) large amounts into the mutuel pools. All the paper profits, computer printouts, and rebates in the world cannot transform a consistent loser into a consistent winner. If someone (or a group of someones) can select enough winners to earn a healthy profit, the addition of rebates may compensate for the pool reduction of their wagers. A 0.97 ROI with a 6% rebate only equates to a 3% "profit" on paper, not in the real world--unless the 0.97 ROI is based on results after wagering those large amounts, not before. ROI based on races not bet is not especially predictive of what will happen when substantial (additional) amounts are wagered on those races.

[banacek]

And a couple of months ago Davidowitz tried (unsuccessfully) to raise $28000 on Kickstarter for a book (not handicapping) he wanted to write.

[horses4courses]

And a couple of months ago Davidowitz tried (unsuccessfully) to raise $28000 on Kickstarter for a book (not handicapping) he wanted to write.

Several years ago, too, he started up a website - Grade One Racing .
It was geared towards race analysis and, in it's infancy, showed promise.
Bruno De Julio, who had recently left Racing Digest, came on board and the future looked bright.
However, subscription rates went up, and demand fell off.

De Julio ended his role with that site earlier this year and, it appears, things went downhill from there.
The site has been closed for at least several months.

Mr. Davidowitz's recent business ventures have lacked success.
I would fear the same fate for any betting syndicate.

[thaskalos]

And a couple of months ago Davidowitz tried (unsuccessfully) to raise $28000 on Kickstarter for a book (not handicapping) he wanted to write.
Which illustrates the worderfully democratic aspect of horseplaying that has captivated me for more than 30 years. Renowned handicapping authors have the same right to fail in this game as anybody else.

[appistappis]

funny, this thread will go on and on yet lamboguy nailed it on the first reply.

[Vinnie]

What can I say, my feet like to breathe. :)

Jim, I love it!!! :) I was dying I was laughing so hard.

[Stillriledup]

People who were great horseplayers in the 1970s, 1980s and whatnut are people who learned how to handicap when the game was completely different. You had horses running more frequently, you didnt have synthetic tracks, there were no Beyer figures and a lot of other things you didnt have when this guy learned to handicap. The big question is this. Has the game passed him by, or, has he had the ability to adapt to the massive changes the game has seen in the last few decades and the changes the game has seen even in the last few years?

Adapt or die is the saying, the toughest thing for people who learned the game a few decades ago is to discard what you've learned and completely reinvent the wheel. If you have the ability to reinvent yourself, you can survive, if you're stuck on 1980's handicapping principles and havent come up with anything cutting edge, there's a good chance Kickstarter may be your only option.

[burnsy]

if his stuff was so good, why would he need money from you?

Thats what i say about all the "products".....tip sheets, touts, systems. If any of it works so well, why would you need to sell it? You should be doing fine at the race track and wouldn't want people to know your "secret". If someone is helping you out or forming tickets thats one thing. Gee, i'm picking winners left and right, but somehow i need money?????? I better sell my methods and picks, it works so well...but i need the money. I laugh at those tip sheets outside the track,......"we had 6 winners yesterday"...yeah ok, you have 5 or 6 winners everyday! Why do you have to stand out here in the sun selling 2 dollar tip sheets?

I don't know maybe his intentions are good. He might want to hit a home run for everyone involved. I won one of those contests on grade one (when it was free) and the check was good and the rest of the prize money went into my online account. But stuff like this is never for me. I'm a stubborn, arrogant, know it all and been doing fine for years...i'm a "walk the plank" on my own type person. IMO thats an attribute that makes a good handicapper anyway. If you can't form your OWN opinion....you probably need to buy crap, have someone pick your horses, because most likely you stink at it. Most times thats the market they are looking for.....people that need money because they can't pick their nose, finding people that can't pick their nose...........and taking THEIR money, so they can go lose some more. Its the horse players version on an infomercial.

[classhandicapper]

People who were great horseplayers in the 1970s, 1980s and whatnut are people who learned how to handicap when the game was completely different. You had horses running more frequently, you didnt have synthetic tracks, there were no Beyer figures and a lot of other things you didnt have when this guy learned to handicap. The big question is this. Has the game passed him by, or, has he had the ability to adapt to the massive changes the game has seen in the last few decades and the changes the game has seen even in the last few years?



I don't know, but this is my best guess.

1. In the ways the game has changed (training methods, synthetics etc...) , I'm going to guess he's adapted well.

2. In the ways handicapping styles have changed, he's probably better off now than he was before. The reason I say that is that he was never a big user of speed or pace figures and that's the direction handicapping took. So I could actually see a guy like Beyer suffering and Davidowitz having a bigger edge as the prices on "figure" horses fell while the prices on "class" horses rose.

3. There is way more information available now (trainer pattern tools, replays, more detailed PPs, open discussion of bias, field strength look up via charts, key races etc... ).

So maybe he's in the same predicament as many other players in that the competition is thicker and there is more quality information the hands of more people, just less so than someone that was totally speed figure oriented.

[classhandicapper]

It's hard to know what motives are.

Let's say you made a decent amount of money gambling, but had a chance to make even more from a combination of gambling and selling information or picks and it would also take the volatility out of your life.

Why wouldn't you do it?

Even if it lowered your gambling profit, as long as the net is larger it's a smart move.

All the major figure makers are doing exactly that.

[chadk66]

People who were great horseplayers in the 1970s, 1980s and whatnut are people who learned how to handicap when the game was completely different. You had horses running more frequently, you didnt have synthetic tracks, there were no Beyer figures and a lot of other things you didnt have when this guy learned to handicap. The big question is this. Has the game passed him by, or, has he had the ability to adapt to the massive changes the game has seen in the last few decades and the changes the game has seen even in the last few years?

Adapt or die is the saying, the toughest thing for people who learned the game a few decades ago is to discard what you've learned and completely reinvent the wheel. If you have the ability to reinvent yourself, you can survive, if you're stuck on 1980's handicapping principles and havent come up with anything cutting edge, there's a good chance Kickstarter may be your only option.I agree with this. And Davidowitz was the handicapper for the star tribune the whole time I was training at cby. and he was less than stellar in his picks.

[the little guy]

I agree with this. And Davidowitz was the handicapper for the star tribune the whole time I was training at cby. and he was less than stellar in his picks.


I love stuff like this.

Which was higher....his ROI or your ROI? How about his winning percentage or your winning percentage?

[HUSKER55]

so you would bet blindly on his picks?

just so we are clear. :)

[therussmeister]

I agree with this. And Davidowitz was the handicapper for the star tribune the whole time I was training at cby. and he was less than stellar in his picks.

I have never paid much attention to other's handicapping opinions (not even The Little Guy) so I didn't follow Mr. Davidowitz closely when he was in Minnesota, but I don't remember him being particularly bad. There were a lot of people giving their picks in the media back in those days, and as far as I know they all did about equally well.

This was a time when there were no on-line past performances, and given the lead time for publication, the newspaper handicappers may have (not "may of" ;) ) only had an hour with the form before their selections were due.

[the little guy]

so you would bet blindly on his picks?

just so we are clear. :)

Emoticon aside, I think it is fair to ask a supposed former trainer, who chooses to remain anonymous, what his qualifications are to knock another in this industry. Who knows what Steve's actual picks looked like ( however, given my fairly extensive experience with him it is more than fair to say he has a very good opinion ) but I am sure we can find Chad66's training percentages. Surely they are pretty impressive that he finds it easy to knock a fairly accomplished member of the handicapping community.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Emoticon aside, I think it is fair to ask a supposed former trainer, who chooses to remain anonymous, what his qualifications are to knock another in this industry. Who knows what Steve's actual picks looked like ( however, given my fairly extensive experience with him it is more than fair to say he has a very good opinion ) but I am sure we can find Chad66's training percentages. Surely they are pretty impressive that he finds it easy to knock a fairly accomplished member of the handicapping community.

He isn't Chad Brown?

[cj]

He isn't Chad Brown?

No.

[Saratoga_Mike]

No.

sorry that was sarcasm

[Exotic1]

I love stuff like this.

Which was higher....his ROI or your ROI? How about his winning percentage or your winning percentage?

I love stuff like THIS.

When you start getting unsolicited correspondence from Chadk asking to join his syndicate, give us a ring. Getting to be same M.O. Someone asks for opinion about something and some are criticized for responding. While this last critique seems a bit arbitrary and maybe subjective, that's what the poster was asking. Opinion. Everyone knows it's just an opinion. If Chadk was intentionally trying to find an opportunity to criticize, that may be something else. Geez tlg, you standout in your field, sometimes you can maintain that distance. Just a suggestion.

I'm not all criticizing Davidowitz, I know nothing about him or his ROI.

For me, my ROI sucks as well as my win percentage which is critical in horizontal betting. Anybody interested in joining my syndicate - I'll be the managing partner?

[lamboguy]

theoretically, a lot of these handicapper's do a great job. but when it comes time to stick their money in the window's they either need partner's or have jobs conveying their great opinion's to the public.

[Shemp Howard]

In my opinion, Davidowitz is taking a freeroll with other peoples' money. Take it as you like.

There's an East Coast vanity stable trainer doing essentially the same thing.

According to TimeForm, he's lost his last 35 races in a row at what is considered a minor track, yet he claims he continues to attract new $$$ to his business model.

David Hannum's quote about P.T. Barnum is as true today as it was 100 years ago.

[chadk66]

I love stuff like this.

Which was higher....his ROI or your ROI? How about his winning percentage or your winning percentage?
I'm not sure why your getting all bent out of shape about this. I simply stated I didn't recall his win picks were all that stellar. I would guess they were fifteen to twenty percent. And that may be on the high side. And yes my win percentage as a trainer was higher than that although I'm not sure how that relates to this, but you asked.

[chadk66]

I have never paid much attention to other's handicapping opinions (not even The Little Guy) so I didn't follow Mr. Davidowitz closely when he was in Minnesota, but I don't remember him being particularly bad. There were a lot of people giving their picks in the media back in those days, and as far as I know they all did about equally well.

This was a time when there were no on-line past performances, and given the lead time for publication, the newspaper handicappers may have (not "may of" ;) ) only had an hour with the form before their selections were due.very valid points. things were much different then. He had probably 36 hrs to have his picks made and there weren't alot of sources for the info then. Jim Wells was better I think. And Jim was a pretty decent guy and is still around the track today. Steve was rather arrogant.

[chadk66]

Emoticon aside, I think it is fair to ask a supposed former trainer, who chooses to remain anonymous, what his qualifications are to knock another in this industry. Who knows what Steve's actual picks looked like ( however, given my fairly extensive experience with him it is more than fair to say he has a very good opinion ) but I am sure we can find Chad66's training percentages. Surely they are pretty impressive that he finds it easy to knock a fairly accomplished member of the handicapping community.
there is a guy on the board that figured out who I was rather quickly. And looked my percentages up.

[antigeekess]

People who were great horseplayers in the 1970s, 1980s and whatnut are people who learned how to handicap when the game was completely different. You had horses running more frequently, you didnt have synthetic tracks, there were no Beyer figures and a lot of other things you didnt have when this guy learned to handicap. The big question is this. Has the game passed him by, or, has he had the ability to adapt to the massive changes the game has seen in the last few decades and the changes the game has seen even in the last few years?

Adapt or die is the saying, the toughest thing for people who learned the game a few decades ago is to discard what you've learned and completely reinvent the wheel. If you have the ability to reinvent yourself, you can survive, if you're stuck on 1980's handicapping principles and havent come up with anything cutting edge, there's a good chance Kickstarter may be your only option.

This is one of the things I'm wondering about. I haven't even read his OLD stuff, and have no idea what his methods are, what part of the country he is best in -- I see what look like really bizarre recommendations for Santa Anita wagering sometimes from east coasters that make no sense to me with regard to things like trainer habits and who's who in this particular zoo out here. A 'lot' of times I feel like the pros are weak on their knowledge of breeding, in particular. I also see them missing things like obvious horse-for-course angles, and completely blowing it with regard to likely pace scenarios, etc.

Not that I'm any great expert -- still fairly a newbie at about 3 years in, but I see some of the longshots I peg that they don't and it's kinda unbelievable sometimes.

To which you might well ask why I need any help then? Like I said, my pockets aren't deep enough, and pretty much ALL I really wanna do is chase big Pick 6's. All my $$$ goes to chasing multirace exotics, when I 'should' be making win/place bets, exactas, trifectas and superfectas. They might be good for the ego, but they don't result in the life-changing score, do they?

All I want is to hit one big one, retire to a nice beach somewhere, and bask in the sun until some do-gooder tourist rolls my fat ass back into the water. Is that too much to ask? :)

[antigeekess]

so you would bet blindly on his picks?

just so we are clear. :)

I believe Davidowitz's email says him and his "handicapping partners," but I'm thinking it's probably just him. He seems very accessible. Not sure how receptive he/they would be to insights from other members. I'd be plenty annoyed if some horse that seemed obvious to me didn't get covered on the ticket and came in.

[MJC922]

This is one of the things I'm wondering about. I haven't even read his OLD stuff, and have no idea what his methods are, what part of the country he is best in -- I see what look like really bizarre recommendations for Santa Anita wagering sometimes from east coasters that make no sense to me with regard to things like trainer habits and who's who in this particular zoo out here. A 'lot' of times I feel like the pros are weak on their knowledge of breeding, in particular. I also see them missing things like obvious horse-for-course angles, and completely blowing it with regard to likely pace scenarios, etc.

Not that I'm any great expert -- still fairly a newbie at about 3 years in, but I see some of the longshots I peg that they don't and it's kinda unbelievable sometimes.

To which you might well ask why I need any help then? Like I said, my pockets aren't deep enough, and pretty much ALL I really wanna do is chase big Pick 6's. All my $$$ goes to chasing multirace exotics, when I 'should' be making win/place bets, exactas, trifectas and superfectas. They might be good for the ego, but they don't result in the life-changing score, do they?

All I want is to hit one big one, retire to a nice beach somewhere, and bask in the sun until some do-gooder tourist rolls my fat ass back into the water. Is that too much to ask? :)

We all want that but I think that's why they invented the lottery. :) I've never met Steve, saw him once at the 96 world series at Pen. Whatever his current situation, most of us have been there in the past and I don't think it's warranted for others to kick someone if they may be at a low point. Just reading Steve's books anyone can tell he knows his stuff and is a top handicapper.

[baconswitchfarm]

. Surely they are pretty impressive that he finds it easy to knock a fairly accomplished member of the handicapping community.


Accomplished handicappers are not using an online pencil cup to beg for money.If accomplished people want to write a book, they go get 28k out of the bank and publish their book. That is what it means to be accomplished in a financial game.

[PhantomOnTour]

What if Steve Crist was the guy asking for investors?
Would anyone feel differently?
(and no - it's not an attempt to save DRF :D )

He is a proven big ticket, big pot player. Regularly posts his tickets at DRF during Saratoga and on many big carryover days at other tracks.
Admittedly, I do not know of his long term ROI on these posted tickets, but I've seen some nice winners.

I am just wondering if the skepticism is based on Davidowitz specifically or that a supposed top handicapper is asking for money.

[thaskalos]

What if Steve Crist was the guy asking for investors?
Would anyone feel differently?
(and no - it's not an attempt to save DRF :D )

He is a proven big ticket, big pot player. Regularly posts his tickets at DRF during Saratoga and on many big carryover days at other tracks.
Admittedly, I do not know of his long term ROI on these posted tickets, but I've seen some nice winners.

I am just wondering if the skepticism is based on Davidowitz specifically or that a supposed top handicapper is asking for money.
Yes...if Steven Crist started sending out emails to strangers looking for investment money, then I would suspect that he had gone broke and was looking for a bankroll. Why else would a renowned and successful big-ticket bettor suddenly be out looking for investors?

It is possible for a winning player to go broke, you know.

Some winners lose their edge...while others develop expensive habits which become impossible to satisfy.

[baconswitchfarm]

...while others develop expensive habits which become impossible to satisfy.


I know several winning players who fit this category.

[Maximillion]

Yes...if Steven Crist started sending out emails to strangers looking for investment money, then I would suspect that he had gone broke and was looking for a bankroll. Why else would a renowned and successful big-ticket bettor suddenly be out looking for investors?

It is possible for a winning player to go broke, you know.

Some winners lose their edge...while others develop expensive habits which become impossible to satisfy.

I agree.....and imo its not necessary to post our "qualifications" for being skeptical,with all due respect to Mr. Davidowitz.

[PhantomOnTour]

Yes...if Steven Crist started sending out emails to strangers looking for investment money, then I would suspect that he had gone broke and was looking for a bankroll. Why else would a renowned and successful big-ticket bettor suddenly be out looking for investors?

It is possible for a winning player to go broke, you know.

Some winners lose their edge...while others develop expensive habits which become impossible to satisfy.

It is possible to make a point without being condescending, you know.

The reason I made that post was because some in this thread spoke of Davidowitz' recent failed business moves (Grade One Racing)

[thaskalos]

It is possible to make a point without being condescending, you know.

The reason I made that post was because some in this thread spoke of Davidowitz' recent failed business moves (Grade One Racing)
If I gave the impression that I was being condescending, then I apologize.

It certainly wasn't my intention...nor do I make a habit of such a thing.

[maclr11]

Emoticon aside, I think it is fair to ask a supposed former trainer, who chooses to remain anonymous, what his qualifications are to knock another in this industry. Who knows what Steve's actual picks looked like ( however, given my fairly extensive experience with him it is more than fair to say he has a very good opinion ) but I am sure we can find Chad66's training percentages. Surely they are pretty impressive that he finds it easy to knock a fairly accomplished member of the handicapping community.

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=8229


Career Statistics:
•Starts: 614
•Firsts: 59
•Seconds: 71
•Thirds: 73
•Earnings: $578,327
•Avg. Earnings Per Start: $942

86-91 at Canterbury Park, works out to be about 9.61%

[Stillriledup]

I'm not sure why your getting all bent out of shape about this. I simply stated I didn't recall his win picks were all that stellar. I would guess they were fifteen to twenty percent. And that may be on the high side. And yes my win percentage as a trainer was higher than that although I'm not sure how that relates to this, but you asked.

He's getting bent out of shape because the conversation about public touts and their inability to make a living (and that's why they're selling their picks) at the windows scares him.

[Maximillion]

He's getting bent out of shape because the conversation about public touts and their inability to make a living (and that's why they're selling their picks) at the windows scares him.

The "qualification" statement bothered me in the way it was used at chad but this is just my opinion.

[antigeekess]

What if Steve Crist was the guy asking for investors?
Would anyone feel differently?
(and no - it's not an attempt to save DRF :D )

He is a proven big ticket, big pot player. Regularly posts his tickets at DRF during Saratoga and on many big carryover days at other tracks.
Admittedly, I do not know of his long term ROI on these posted tickets, but I've seen some nice winners.

I am just wondering if the skepticism is based on Davidowitz specifically or that a supposed top handicapper is asking for money.

I would have way more confidence if it was Crist, having read "Exotic Betting" and knowing that he's very adept in structuring wagers, which is a weaker area for me than my handicapping. Especially if we were playing New York.

[therussmeister]

Accomplished handicappers are not using an online pencil cup to beg for money.If accomplished people want to write a book, they go get 28k out of the bank and publish their book. That is what it means to be accomplished in a financial game.

If rich people want to write a book, they get someone else to pony up 28K and publish their book. That's how they get rich - Other people's money.

But back to handicapping, unless they are skimming a percentage of the winnings off the top, successful handicappers use their own money, in my opinion.

Sometime after Mr. Davidowitz left Minnesota, there was an interview with him in a local paper, where he revealed he only bets seriously one or two months per year. The rest of the time he's a $2 bettor. The reason he gave was because he had trouble dealing with the emotions of being a serious bettor.

[PaceAdvantage]

He's getting bent out of shape because the conversation about public touts and their inability to make a living (and that's why they're selling their picks) at the windows scares him.First off, how exactly was he "getting bent out of shape?"

I saw no bending, or shape shifting in his reply. Somehow, you and "chad" did...I find this odd, and not at all a very good debate tactic.

Second, TLG isn't selling anything, thus your premise is thrown completely out the window by default.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm not reading the entirety of this thread,I don't have to.I know if it wasn't for a couple of guys,Davidowitz being one,the game would not have evolved to the point where it could be in a position to leave him behind.Love how everybody doormats him and some don't even know who the guy is to say.The internet empowers the diehard as$holes.So have at it punks!:D

[antigeekess]

I'm sending him the following. We'll see what he has to say.
--------------------------------
Hi Steve,

I'm possibly interested in participating, but have a few questions.

1. How long has this group been in existence?
2. How many players are currently involved?
3. Who, in addition to yourself, will be handicapping the races?
4. Is handicapping input from other members considered?
5. What is your strike rate and ROI thus far?
6. Can you provide specific examples of successes (such as those posted at WinningPonies.com)?

Thank you,
*** ******
----------------------------------
(Hopefully this doesn't come off as rude, but I think anyone participating would be entitled to these answers. I'm not a big fan of secrets.)

[whodoyoulike]

I didn't see the email solicitation in your original post. I see nothing rude in your email response. If he's asking for participants money, your concerns seem reasonable. Btw, why or how did he acquire your email address?

[davew]

I remember him at the Star Tribune in early CanterburyPark days

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2010/06/25/canterbury

and his 'betting thoroubreds' has to be considered a classic



although that does not necessarily mean he could run a big bet syndicate

[antigeekess]

I didn't see the email solicitation in your original post. I see nothing rude in your email response. If he's asking for participants money, your concerns seem reasonable. Btw, why or how did he acquire your email address?

Grade One Racing had it, but I never used them for anything.

[antigeekess]

I'm sending him the following. We'll see what he has to say.
--------------------------------
Hi Steve,

I'm possibly interested in participating, but have a few questions.

1. How long has this group been in existence?
2. How many players are currently involved?
3. Who, in addition to yourself, will be handicapping the races?
4. Is handicapping input from other members considered?
5. What is your strike rate and ROI thus far?
6. Can you provide specific examples of successes (such as those posted at WinningPonies.com)?

Thank you,
*** ******
----------------------------------
(Hopefully this doesn't come off as rude, but I think anyone participating would be entitled to these answers. I'm not a big fan of secrets.)

The quick reply:

I've done this before, but this group has only been in existence since the Breeders' Cup.

More than two dozen particpated in the BC plays we made and more than 50 are expected to be involved during the next few months.
I do the handicapping with my partner Peter Rinato, I make out the final ticket layouts.
If you really like a horse send and E-amil and why and we will take it into consideration, but the buck stops here. It'd the only real way to run a betting group unless you are meeting with three or four friends for a few hours at a set location in which everybody gives active input. But even in that case, the buck has to stop with the group master, or there will be endless second guessing.

I can only tell you that in my past I have hit seversal dozen pick 6's worth from $10,000 to as much as $375,000.

It just comes down to this:
It should be a lot of fun and potentially quite lucrative although no gurantess are to be given.
You simply have to decide if you want to particpate and for how much. .

All the Best/SteveD
----------------------
So, points for promptness, politeness, and thoroughness, I guess...
I have to look up Peter Rinato now....

Oh my. Well, "scam artist" isn't really a phrase we want to see associated with someone we're thinking of doing business with now, is it?
http://victimadvocates.net/tag/peter-rinato/

[antigeekess]

Oh my. Well, "scam artist" isn't really a phrase we want to see associated with someone we're thinking of doing business with now, is it?
http://victimadvocates.net/tag/peter-rinato/

One more. This one's even better.
http://www.ripoffreport.com/r/IBG-Search-IBGsearchcom-IBGcom-Internet-Business-Group-internet-business-guardian-internetbusinessguardiancom-positive-search-results-Russell-Pike-Pete-Rinato-MASSSIVE-SCAM/internet/IBG-Search-IBGsearchcom-IBGcom-Internet-Business-Group-internet-business-guardian-i-820220

Methinks I shall be passing on any dealings that concern Mr. Rinato.

[thaskalos]

Perhaps we should ask TLG about Mr. Rinato...since he(TLG) has obviously had fairly extensive experience dealing with Steve Davidowitz.

I wonder if he is the same Peter Rinato who owned Discreet Gentlemen's Club in Las Vegas.

[baconswitchfarm]

There are guys trying to bet on other peoples money at every track in America. This is just a little huckstering with a touch of finesse.

If anyone sends them money, please check yourself in to a mental institution.

[antigeekess]

I wonder if he is the same Peter Rinato who owned Discreet Gentlemen's Club in Las Vegas.

I got the impression he is. That was the 'first' thing I saw (already rolling my eyes). Why is it that at the end of these little rainbows there's always a "gentleman's club"? Oy.

[Exotic1]

Emoticon aside, I think it is fair to ask a supposed former trainer, who chooses to remain anonymous, what his qualifications are to knock another in this industry. Who knows what Steve's actual picks looked like ( however, given my fairly extensive experience with him it is more than fair to say he has a very good opinion ) but I am sure we can find Chad66's training percentages. Surely they are pretty impressive that he finds it easy to knock a fairly accomplished member of the handicapping community.

I just Google'd it - turns out there is a strong correlation between successful investors and those showing positive ROI's. Go figure.
Found nothing on the qualifications needed for someone to report such data.

[antigeekess]

This is just a little huckstering with a touch of finesse.


I was already getting that impression. Rinato's involvement is the icing on the cake.

[the little guy]

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=8229


Career Statistics:
•Starts: 614
•Firsts: 59
•Seconds: 71
•Thirds: 73
•Earnings: $578,327
•Avg. Earnings Per Start: $942

86-91 at Canterbury Park, works out to be about 9.61%


Thanks.

I guess according to his standards he was an unmitigated failure.

[the little guy]

First off, how exactly was he "getting bent out of shape?"

I saw no bending, or shape shifting in his reply. Somehow, you and "chad" did...I find this odd, and not at all a very good debate tactic.

Second, TLG isn't selling anything, thus your premise is thrown completely out the window by default.


Like I told you, he needs to add to his post count.

This is quite a thread, by the way.

[Stillriledup]

First off, how exactly was he "getting bent out of shape?"

I saw no bending, or shape shifting in his reply. Somehow, you and "chad" did...I find this odd, and not at all a very good debate tactic.

Second, TLG isn't selling anything, thus your premise is thrown completely out the window by default.

Chad used the words bent out of shape so when i responded to him, i used the same words. Those were his words, if he didnt use those words, i wouldnt have used them either.

He's not selling anything? Than why is NYRA paying him? Isnt he "touting" information so that NYRA makes more money?

[antigeekess]

I was already getting that impression. Rinato's involvement is the icing on the cake.

But wait, there's more!

http://www.nvbar.org/lawyer-detail/10366

SUSPENDED. Nice partner he's got there.

So maybe I'll just read Davidowitz's book. Maybe I'll even buy it new. If I do, the royalties will be the only money of mine he gets.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Chad used the words bent out of shape so when i responded to him, i used the same words. Those were his words, if he didnt use those words, i wouldnt have used them either.

He's not selling anything? Than why is NYRA paying him? Isnt he "touting" information so that NYRA makes more money?

C'mon man.Do you seriously think TLG just shooting the shit with some of his fellow brethren here isn't just that?

[appistappis]

if rinato was a horse his trainer would be ness or englehart.

[chadk66]

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=8229


Career Statistics:
•Starts: 614
•Firsts: 59
•Seconds: 71
•Thirds: 73
•Earnings: $578,327
•Avg. Earnings Per Start: $942

86-91 at Canterbury Park, works out to be about 9.61%
Can you do me a favor and post the stats for the last three years I trained. I don't have access to that and thought you might have.

[burnsy]

It is possible to make a point without being condescending, you know.

The reason I made that post was because some in this thread spoke of Davidowitz' recent failed business moves (Grade One Racing)

Yeah, but being condescending gets the point across sharply, i do it all the time.
Plus, its kind of condescending to solicit money for blind picks. You might as well say "You suck so we will (my partner and I) make the tickets for you. Just send us some money. " What horse player or handicapper worth a crap would NOT be skeptical of this offer? Its like the scene from Let It Ride when he asks everyone in the bar to pool money with him after hes hit every race hes bet. The crowd is all worked up until its time to pony up the money, then you can hear a pin drop. Its not in the nature of any horseplayer that can pick at all or not, to go with a deal like this. The fact that people don't get this is kind of condescending. Anyone thats been around the track for longer than a week understands that being skeptical or street smart might save your wallet.

As with everything is in life. You can either do something or you can't. Some people can bet horses, some can't. If you can't, then maybe this is for you. But heres the thing, i get emails telling me i can get rich in real estate, lose all this weight, win all this money betting horses, start an "online" fortune.....the one thing in common is they all want some of my money up front....without questioning it. I find that extremely condescending. The only "emoticon" for offers like this is that little "garbage can" called "junk". People that are public handicappers should expect this reaction.....what do think is going to happen? The people that start big syndicates like this, usually don't even want people to know who they are.....they are not casting large random email fishing nets..thats a big red flag right there.

[traynor]

Yeah, but being condescending gets the point across sharply, i do it all the time.
Plus, its kind of condescending to solicit money for blind picks. You might as well say "You suck so we will (my partner and I) make the tickets for you. Just send us some money. " What horse player or handicapper worth a crap would NOT be skeptical of this offer? Its like the scene from Let It Ride when he asks everyone in the bar to pool money with him after hes hit every race hes bet. The crowd is all worked up until its time to pony up the money, then you can hear a pin drop. Its not in the nature of any horseplayer that can pick at all or not, to go with a deal like this. The fact that people don't get this is kind of condescending. Anyone thats been around the track for longer than a week understands that being skeptical or street smart might save your wallet.

As with everything is in life. You can either do something or you can't. Some people can bet horses, some can't. If you can't, then maybe this is for you. But heres the thing, i get emails telling me i can get rich in real estate, lose all this weight, win all this money betting horses, start an "online" fortune.....the one thing in common is they all want some of my money up front....without questioning it. I find that extremely condescending. The only "emoticon" for offers like this is that little "garbage can" called "junk". People that are public handicappers should expect this reaction.....what do think is going to happen? The people that start big syndicates like this, usually don't even want people to know who they are.....they are not casting large random email fishing nets..thats a big red flag right there.

It is safe to assume that anyone or any group with the technology or processes capable of consistently generating a profit from wagering on horse races already has everything they need to take as much as they want. The search for backers, investors, or partners is a sure sign that they do NOT have what is needed to actually win in the long-term.

No matter how it is explained, justified, rationalized, or described, the bottom line is that if they have the technology or processes they don't really need anything else. Whatever additional funding is deemed to be required to optimize profitability can be quietly earned in a short period of time--no "investors" are either wanted or needed.

[outofthebox]

Can you do me a favor and post the stats for the last three years I trained. I don't have access to that and thought you might have.Starts: 282
Firsts: 30
Seconds: 39
Thirds: 34
Earnings: $286,293
Ave earnings per start: 1,015
Win: 10.6%
Itm: 36%

[Arapola]

Little Guy, I love ya, but if you pick Reggie D. again I'm going to SCREAM!!!!!!

[the little guy]

Little Guy, I love ya, but if you pick Reggie D. again I'm going to SCREAM!!!!!!

You could probably add a few others to that list!

[Robert Fischer]

Sounds like you guys are over-thinking this one.

Should you take a car title loan dependent on big profits ? No.

There are 5 or 6 pages here basically bashing the same guy many have brought up in "favorite handicapper" threads, for possibly exploring some avenues to generate an income. :bang:

Could joining a syndicate with a respected handicapping personality be a positive experience? I don't know.
Maybe maybe not...

[comet52]

There's no free lunch and no something for nothing, especially in gambling. If you think someone else involved in any form of gambling wants to "help you make money" you are quite simply a mark waiting to be fleeced.

[Robert Goren]

Why is what Davidowitz is doing any different from buying into a mutual fund?

[traynor]

There's no free lunch and no something for nothing, especially in gambling. If you think someone else involved in any form of gambling wants to "help you make money" you are quite simply a mark waiting to be fleeced.

Yeah ... what he said.

[traynor]

Why is what Davidowitz is doing any different from buying into a mutual fund?

Actually, it is pretty much the same. And I don't put money into mutual funds for the same reason--when push comes to shove, I rely on myself to make the best investment decisions, rather than giving money to someone else to "invest" for me (while skimming "fees"). It might not work for everyone, but it absolutely, positively has worked for me.

[davew]

chad your last year seems best percentage/winnings per start -wise

YearStartsFirstsSecondsThirdsEarnings=
1991=33==8===4====5==$90,289

[chadk66]

chad your last year seems best percentage/winnings per start -wise

YearStartsFirstsSecondsThirdsEarnings=
1991=33==8===4====5==$90,289
something isn't right with the numbers. I have to question how accurate they are. I had substantially more starts and wins than that. I had one horse make about 50k by himself. I'd say the starts were between 50-60. Wins were 18 if I recall. So somethings not right. The other numbers that were posted don't look right either.

[chadk66]

Starts: 282
Firsts: 30
Seconds: 39
Thirds: 34
Earnings: $286,293
Ave earnings per start: 1,015
Win: 10.6%
Itm: 36%
definitely some issues with these numbers. I doubt these are accurate.

[outofthebox]

definitely some issues with these numbers. I doubt these are accurate.Just pulling them off Equibase. Did all your horses run under your name?

[cj]

Maybe some ran under his maiden name....couldn't resist!

[maclr11]

Unless you were running in the bush or quarter horses races equibase numbers are going to be right.

You sure your not getting confused with 88 where you had someone win a couple of stakes and 207 in earnings from 19 wins in 163 starts

Year Starts Firsts Seconds Thirds Earnings
1991 33 8 4 5 $90,289
1990 82 12 13 13 $98,966
1989 167 10 22 16 $97,038
1988 163 19 22 17 $207,451
1987 127 6 8 16 $57,237
1986 42 4 2 6 $27,346

Copy and Pasted right off of equibase

[chadk66]

Just pulling them off Equibase. Did all your horses run under your name?
absolutely

[chadk66]

Unless you were running in the bush or quarter horses races equibase numbers are going to be right.

You sure your not getting confused with 88 where you had someone win a couple of stakes and 207 in earnings from 19 wins in 163 starts

Year Starts Firsts Seconds Thirds Earnings
1991 33 8 4 5 $90,289
1990 82 12 13 13 $98,966
1989 167 10 22 16 $97,038
1988 163 19 22 17 $207,451
1987 127 6 8 16 $57,237
1986 42 4 2 6 $27,346

Copy and Pasted right off of equibase
well that doesn't mean they're right. I had far more starts in 91 than 33. I had a couple horses that had at least eight starts at Cby alone. I had a dozen horses that year and there's no way two horses made half my starts. And I had one horse that made close to 40k just at the cby meet that year. I'm going to see if I can find some old data from the track itself for that year. If I recall I finished 10th-12th in the trainer standings that year with just a dozen horses. By the way say hello to your dad for me, he was a pretty good guy and I had alot of respect for him.

[maclr11]

Haha that's a great connection. Im assuming that's through Rhoda back in the days.
Came up to Wpg to run Renegotiate in the Canada Day in 1990. That's before I was born but that's how I found the trainer stats was through her.

I looked in the Canterbury media guide from 09 and it only lists the trainers that were top 5. The easiest way actually to do it, if you can remember the horses is to just look up the horses one by one. The charts will be there in 91 it wont be hard to verify. It would be kind of cool to see equibase be wrong.

Trained horses for Sundsbak whos still In the game as an owner. Arnason, Daley, Sundsbak, Ziprick. That's a cool connection, they had a super nice 2yo this year. Get back to me about the 91 horses, it wont take me long to see if there is some data missing.

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=O&eID=1964454
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=O&eID=1861827
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9145231&registry=T

[Stillriledup]

Chad, i know this is neither here nor there, but have you ever thought of getting back into training? And if its not too personal, why did you stop?

[chadk66]

Chad, i know this is neither here nor there, but have you ever thought of getting back into training? And if its not too personal, why did you stop?
think about that all the time. I left because I had two boys that were one and three and the backside just was a horrible place to raise them. got tired of living out of a suitcase and it was very stressful on my marriage. I was still only 25 years old then and said hell with it and pulled the plug. Deeply miss the horses but man I don't miss the amount of time you have to put in. I own a broodmare and a coming yearling with my brother. Also a share in Kela. The coming yearling is a Kela baby and mare is in foal to Kela. Going to possibly send her to Two Step Salsa after this foal. So I'm kind of in the business but not so to speak. Have seriously considered getting back into it within the next few years but we are pretty entrenched where we live now and have grandchildren. So not sure if the wife will go for that or not. What really sucked is I started from scratch. Never spent any time in the race barn other than when I tagged along with my dad, he owned horses for years. We started a breeding operation when MN got racing. I loved being around the mares and foals. Went to college to be a pilot for a year but there were no jobs and didn't want to stick a 100k into it and not have work. So decided to go to Univ. of MN ag school for horses to gain as much knowledge as I could and run the breeding farm. My advisor in school talked me into training. So I took four rejects and started. First three years was very interesting and frustrating. Started with little to no knowledge of the race track. Learned it all the hard way. School of hard knocks. After three years I finally started getting some decent outside horses and things just started to click. Did tons of experimenting to learn what makes the horses tick. Finally put things together and the last three years kept getting better and better as you'd expect.

[chadk66]

Haha that's a great connection. Im assuming that's through Rhoda back in the days.
Came up to Wpg to run Renegotiate in the Canada Day in 1990. That's before I was born but that's how I found the trainer stats was through her.

I looked in the Canterbury media guide from 09 and it only lists the trainers that were top 5. The easiest way actually to do it, if you can remember the horses is to just look up the horses one by one. The charts will be there in 91 it wont be hard to verify. It would be kind of cool to see equibase be wrong.

Trained horses for Sundsbak whos still In the game as an owner. Arnason, Daley, Sundsbak, Ziprick. That's a cool connection, they had a super nice 2yo this year. Get back to me about the 91 horses, it wont take me long to see if there is some data missing.

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=O&eID=1964454
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=O&eID=1861827
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9145231&registry=T
I actually got sundsbak in the game sold him his first horse, Renegotiate. Won a stakes race with her in her third start for him so needless to say he was hooked. And what a great guy. I didn't know he still had horses. He never could get Renegotiate pregnant. Her mother was beast to get in foal too. How is Rhoda, I haven't seen her in twenty years. Vicki won a fair number of races for me. I'll try to dig out the win picture binders and see if I can get you the names of all the horses from 91. I just moved into a new house and all that stuff is stuffed in the basement and hasn't been unpacked. But I think the boxes are marked. I'll see what I can find.

[thaskalos]

think about that all the time. I left because I had two boys that were one and three and the backside just was a horrible place to raise them. got tired of living out of a suitcase and it was very stressful on my marriage. I was still only 25 years old then and said hell with it and pulled the plug. Deeply miss the horses but man I don't miss the amount of time you have to put in. I own a broodmare and a coming yearling with my brother. Also a share in Kela. The coming yearling is a Kela baby and mare is in foal to Kela. Going to possibly send her to Two Step Salsa after this foal. So I'm kind of in the business but not so to speak. Have seriously considered getting back into it within the next few years but we are pretty entrenched where we live now and have grandchildren. So not sure if the wife will go for that or not. What really sucked is I started from scratch. Never spent any time in the race barn other than when I tagged along with my dad, he owned horses for years. We started a breeding operation when MN got racing. I loved being around the mares and foals. Went to college to be a pilot for a year but there were no jobs and didn't want to stick a 100k into it and not have work. So decided to go to Univ. of MN ag school for horses to gain as much knowledge as I could and run the breeding farm. My advisor in school talked me into training. So I took four rejects and started. First three years was very interesting and frustrating. Started with little to no knowledge of the race track. Learned it all the hard way. School of hard knocks. After three years I finally started getting some decent outside horses and things just started to click. Did tons of experimenting to learn what makes the horses tick. Finally put things together and the last three years kept getting better and better as you'd expect.

Great post!

It's nice when we get to know something about those we chat with. :ThmbUp:

[maclr11]

Heres an old Rhoda win picture

She passed away in 2006.
Vicky rode right up until 2011 when a bad spill at one of the California fair meets ended her career. I believe she had a spinal injury but did recover as far as I know.

Weve got a couple of boxes of old win photos and stuff from that era from up here.

Sundsbak has had a great run the last few years with like three champions up here. So I guess thanks go to you for getting him in the game.

Different how the culture and the tracks have changed since the 90s just looking at all the old photos.

[lamboguy]

without a doubt, the racing game is desperately missing guys like Chad. he is another great guy with great stories and a personality to go with him. the game is an absolute bore now with all these big shot trainers that force smaller guys out like Chad. in today's world his percentage against the big boys is actually pretty good. it may not be enough to raise kids though.

the people that want to make fun and ridicule this fine man really have little knowledge about this game and probably life in general. but yet they can come on these boards because its the internet and show their obnoxious side. they would never act this way face to face because they are cowards at heart.

[Exotic1]

think about that all the time. I left because I had two boys that were one and three and the backside just was a horrible place to raise them. got tired of living out of a suitcase and it was very stressful on my marriage. I was still only 25 years old then and said hell with it and pulled the plug. Deeply miss the horses but man I don't miss the amount of time you have to put in. I own a broodmare and a coming yearling with my brother. Also a share in Kela. The coming yearling is a Kela baby and mare is in foal to Kela. Going to possibly send her to Two Step Salsa after this foal. So I'm kind of in the business but not so to speak. Have seriously considered getting back into it within the next few years but we are pretty entrenched where we live now and have grandchildren. So not sure if the wife will go for that or not. What really sucked is I started from scratch. Never spent any time in the race barn other than when I tagged along with my dad, he owned horses for years. We started a breeding operation when MN got racing. I loved being around the mares and foals. Went to college to be a pilot for a year but there were no jobs and didn't want to stick a 100k into it and not have work. So decided to go to Univ. of MN ag school for horses to gain as much knowledge as I could and run the breeding farm. My advisor in school talked me into training. So I took four rejects and started. First three years was very interesting and frustrating. Started with little to no knowledge of the race track. Learned it all the hard way. School of hard knocks. After three years I finally started getting some decent outside horses and things just started to click. Did tons of experimenting to learn what makes the horses tick. Finally put things together and the last three years kept getting better and better as you'd expect.

Chad, you're a genuine guy.

I have to apologize for some of the remarks that others threw at you even though they know nothing about you. Classless.

But maybe you should have become a public handicapper, that sounds as though it would have been easier. You know, publication of ROI optional, no understanding that you can be "break even" or even be positive EBITDA with a 10% win rate as a hard working trainer Plus, if you chose to earn your living as a public handicapper, you could be part of the haloed "Handicapper Community". You know, part of the the "industry". Anyway, glad to have met you.

None of this is intended to impugn anyone in particular - certainly not any public handicapper. I have to reach post #300 before New Year so treat the content accordingly.

[PaceAdvantage]

He's not selling anything? Than why is NYRA paying him? Isnt he "touting" information so that NYRA makes more money?It's tough not to just start calling you names. Very tough.

Let me know the last time you paid for any information TLG has given out. As if I have to point this out to you.

You are a stubborn one...

[thaskalos]

Chad, you're a genuine guy.

I have to apologize for some of the remarks that others threw at you even though they know nothing about you. Classless.

But maybe you should have become a public handicapper, that sounds as though it would have been easier. You know, publication of ROI optional, no understanding that you can be "break even" or even be positive EBITDA with a 10% win rate as a hard working trainer Plus, if you chose to earn your living as a public handicapper, you could be part of the haloed "Handicapper Community". You know, part of the the "industry". Anyway, glad to have met you.

None of this is intended to impugn anyone in particular - certainly not any public handicapper. I have to reach post #300 before New Year so treat the content accordingly.

I have never been a public handicapper...but I would bet my bottom dollar that it's a lot easier to pick 25% winners on paper than it is to saddle 10% winners on the track.

[Stillriledup]

It's tough not to just start calling you names. Very tough.

Let me know the last time you paid for any information TLG has given out. As if I have to point this out to you.

You are a stubborn one...

I think we may be talking about 2 entirely different things.

[PaceAdvantage]

I think we may be talking about 2 entirely different things.Maybe you are, for your own silly reasons. I'm not.

[TheEdge07]

I have never been a public handicapper...but I would bet my bottom dollar that it's a lot easier to pick 25% winners on paper than it is to saddle 10% winners on the track.

10% and thats up against the "magic" trainer.

[chadk66]

Heres an old Rhoda win picture

She passed away in 2006.
Vicky rode right up until 2011 when a bad spill at one of the California fair meets ended her career. I believe she had a spinal injury but did recover as far as I know.

Weve got a couple of boxes of old win photos and stuff from that era from up here.

Sundsbak has had a great run the last few years with like three champions up here. So I guess thanks go to you for getting him in the game.

Different how the culture and the tracks have changed since the 90s just looking at all the old photos.
you know I do remember hearing she passed away now that you mention it. Darrell used to come down to cby and him and his wife would jump in the truck with my wife and I and we'd go to the hay auction and buy hay and he would help load it and all that. He was a great guy. When I run into him he talks about that being some of the best fun he's ever had. Hard to imagine. Going to ASD and running in stakes there was some of the best times I had. Just loved it there. My grandpa grew up in nw ND and went to ASD all the time. The gold cup was his favorite race. I tried to win it at least four times. I think I was second at least three times maybe all four. Just kept getting beat. One goal I have in my life is to win the gold cup for him, he passed away about six years ago. Not a bigger fan of racing on the planet. So that's my lives mission right now. It would be cool to do it with one we raised. I ran fourth in the Manitoba Derby in 91' with a horse that was still really green. It was only his sixth or seventh start I think. Didn't switch leads right ever in that race lol. But he went on and won some stakes in Remington.

[chadk66]

Chad, you're a genuine guy.

I have to apologize for some of the remarks that others threw at you even though they know nothing about you. Classless.

But maybe you should have become a public handicapper, that sounds as though it would have been easier. You know, publication of ROI optional, no understanding that you can be "break even" or even be positive EBITDA with a 10% win rate as a hard working trainer Plus, if you chose to earn your living as a public handicapper, you could be part of the haloed "Handicapper Community". You know, part of the the "industry". Anyway, glad to have met you.

None of this is intended to impugn anyone in particular - certainly not any public handicapper. I have to reach post #300 before New Year so treat the content accordingly.haha, no worries. I take it all in stride. Had to do it as a trainer also.

[chadk66]

we're going to get to the bottom of this training percentage thing :D I can assure you the last two years I trained I wasn't anywhere near 10% ;) The numbers through 98 look right but after that not so much.

[maclr11]

Time for daring was 4th to plenty chilly in 91 derby
That year he had 1 win for you an allowance race at Canterbury in 4 starts
A 2nd in the derby trial as well

[Maximillion]

I think if this was presented a little differently it could be potentially enticing.

As Thaskalos mentioned in an earlier thread.....a little honesty can go a long way.
If SD came out and said look.....im a handicapper with considerable knowledge(my guess would be few would dispute this) but Im struggling big time at the moment and im looking to set up a group to exchange ideas for putting together horizontal gimmick bets.The emphasis would be on the "exchanging of ideas" and that all respected partners would be given a chance to voice there input for consideration,all for the possible benefit of the "partnership".

No guarantees obviously.....but something like this (at least to me) would at the very least sound "interesting",rather than the currently presented "send me the $".

[antigeekess]

I think if this was presented a little differently it could be potentially enticing.

As Thaskalos mentioned in an earlier thread.....a little honesty can go a long way.
If SD came out and said look.....im a handicapper with considerable knowledge(my guess would be few would dispute this) but Im struggling big time at the moment and im looking to set up a group to exchange ideas for putting together horizontal gimmick bets.The emphasis would be on the "exchanging of ideas" and that all respected partners would be given a chance to voice there input for consideration,all for the possible benefit of the "partnership".

No guarantees obviously.....but something like this (at least to me) would at the very least sound "interesting",rather than the currently presented "send me the $".

I don't much care what he says at this point. The involvement of that shady suspended lawyer/former strip club owner/scam artist (at least according to a couple of online ripoff reports) is enough to put an end to all consideration of involvement with him, AFAIC.

SD was already coming off as pretty huckster-ish to me (I watched that Kickstarter vid he did for his book), and the fact that the other partner is this Rinato character is the final nail in the coffin.

But by all means, I can forward you the email if you'd like. I'm sure your money is just as green as mine, and they'd be just as happy to take it. ;)

[Maximillion]

I don't much care what he says at this point. The involvement of that shady suspended lawyer/former strip club owner/scam artist (at least according to a couple of online ripoff reports) is enough to put an end to all consideration of involvement with him, AFAIC.

SD was already coming off as pretty huckster-ish to me (I watched that Kickstarter vid he did for his book), and the fact that the other partner is this Rinato character is the final nail in the coffin.

But by all means, I can forward you the email if you'd like. I'm sure your money is just as green as mine, and they'd be just as happy to take it. ;)

Wasnt the point I was trying to make.

[chadk66]

Time for daring was 4th to plenty chilly in 91 derby
That year he had 1 win for you an allowance race at Canterbury in 4 starts
A 2nd in the derby trial as well
yea what sucked is right after I threw in the towel he went to remington and won a stakes race or two. He was the strangest horse. would barely gallop in the mornings. load him in the gate and he was all business. But he was still so green for quite awhile. Smartens Pride was another horse I had for two or three years. Of course Renegotiate. I believe in 91 I had Circle Hawk whom also won a stakes race a week or two after I quit. He was one we bred and raised. Sir Instant was another mare I had that always gave a 100%. Damn the years are blending together :(

[maclr11]

Don't think he ever won a stake
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=1180492&registry=T

Seemed like a nice enough horse
Ended up with asmussen early in his career

I'll look up the others when I get home
The story I wanna hear is after he won at 50/1 in so cal for a very young Dan Hendricks how you got him in Canterbury

[chadk66]

Don't think he ever won a stake
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=1180492&registry=T

Seemed like a nice enough horse
Ended up with asmussen early in his career

I'll look up the others when I get home
The story I wanna hear is after he won at 50/1 in so cal for a very young Dan Hendricks how you got him in Canterbury
man that horse didn't have a very long career. he was 100% sound when I had him. Of the three wins he had, one was his maiden at SA, the second was the allowance at CBY, I was told right after the Cby meet ended he went to Remington and won a stakes late in his three year old year. Not sure what happened to the horse but obviously something did. Circle Hawk got sick and had to be retired or euthanized I believe. Smartens Pride had hock issues while I had him and the next trainers never figured it out so he disappeared.

[Exotic1]

10% and thats up against the "magic" trainer.

I was thinking the same.

[Exotic1]

I have never been a public handicapper...but I would bet my bottom dollar that it's a lot easier to pick 25% winners on paper than it is to saddle 10% winners on the track.

You're so right, and that is getting to be obvious to everyone.

[PaceAdvantage]

You're so right, and that is getting to be obvious to everyone.Lots of stuff is obvious to everyone...

[thaskalos]

Lots of stuff is obvious to everyone...

Indeed...

[PaceAdvantage]

Indeed...You can say that again.

[thaskalos]

You can say that again.

Indeed... :)

[Saratoga_Mike]

I have never been a public handicapper...but I would bet my bottom dollar that it's a lot easier to pick 25% winners on paper than it is to saddle 10% winners on the track.

Let's take the former trainer involved in this thread outside of this discussion (at least my comments below). I don't know him and I have NO opinion of his abilities (seems like a nice guy, and his observations about track life seem spot on). But I wanted to respond your statement above.

It depends. You give me a barn full of claimers, and I'll win at a 10% clip for fun. It's harder when you have unproven babies, but with claimers 90% of the game is placement.

[chadk66]

Let's take the former trainer involved in this thread outside of this discussion (at least my comments below). I don't know him and I have NO opinion of his abilities (seems like a nice guy, and his observations about track life seem spot on). But I wanted to respond your statement above.

It depends. You give me a barn full of claimers, and I'll win at a 10% clip for fun. It's harder when you have unproven babies, but with claimers 90% of the game is placement.
I agree, claimers if mostly about placement and dealing with lameness/unsoundness issues. I hated claimers for the most part and tried to stay away from them if possible. I wasn't a good enough voodoo dr. to fix some of the ailments. so I did whatever I could to keep them from getting sore. And then you have owners that have a 5k horse they think should run for 10-20k. That's a tough deal. It's actually easier to have a better percentage with allowance and stakes horses than claiming horses I think. Unless you have owners that flat give you the reins to do whatever with their claiming horses. not many of those around.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I agree, claimers if mostly about placement and dealing with lameness/unsoundness issues. I hated claimers for the most part and tried to stay away from them if possible. I wasn't a good enough voodoo dr. to fix some of the ailments. so I did whatever I could to keep them from getting sore. And then you have owners that have a 5k horse they think should run for 10-20k. That's a tough deal. It's actually easier to have a better percentage with allowance and stakes horses than claiming horses I think. Unless you have owners that flat give you the reins to do whatever with their claiming horses. not many of those around.

That's the key, or you have me as an owner and I'll always want to put the horse in a cheaper race.

[Mineshaft]

Placement is 100% the key for claimers winning races. Just my opinion. Too many people fall in love with there horse and want to make that 5K claimer an Allowance horse. I can show you plenty of trainers down here that don't have a clue where to place there horses.

[chadk66]

Placement is 100% the key for claimers winning races. Just my opinion. Too many people fall in love with there horse and want to make that 5K claimer an Allowance horse. I can show you plenty of trainers down here that don't have a clue where to place there horses.
or is it the owners placing them for them? that's my guess.

[pondman]

if his stuff was so good, why would he need money from you?

The largest pick 6 payout in the history of California was won by a syndicate of 6 investors. There are advantages to pooling resources.

[chadk66]

there was a guy in the 80's from California that just flew around and bet the pick six whenever it had a carryover in excess of 300k I believe. Anybody remember this guy?

[Stillriledup]

there was a guy in the 80's from California that just flew around and bet the pick six whenever it had a carryover in excess of 300k I believe. Anybody remember this guy?

Wasnt Calif the only place that had carryovers like that for the most part?

[chadk66]

Wasnt Calif the only place that had carryovers like that for the most part?
I think on three occasions he traveled to Cby to bet the pick 6. Star Tribune interviewed him one of those times. This would have been 85-88 ish.

[burnsy]

The largest pick 6 payout in the history of California was won by a syndicate of 6 investors. There are advantages to pooling resources.

No kidding? Did they use their name over the internet through wide spread emails....where two people make the ticket and the rest "donate" their money? Or were they people that knew each other and collaberated on the ticket(s). I'm guessing the latter. It sounds like a sweet deal....jump in.....

[antigeekess]

The largest pick 6 payout in the history of California was won by a syndicate of 6 investors. There are advantages to pooling resources.

Yup. This is all I'm saying. It's not about his mad handicapping skillz -- I don't have any more faith in him than anybody else, including me. It's about pooling the cash and hitting the things as hard as we can.

I know last I read, Jimmy the Hat had supposedly hit the Pick 6 200+ times (and that article was years ago). A big part of the reason is that he's playing with $10,000 - $20,000+ worth of tickets.

A bunch of us little fishies together can make a whale. :)

This particular pool, however, may be shark-infested, which is why I'm staying out of it.

[lamboguy]

Jimmy the Hat is as good as it gets. he just doesn't put his money on horses he picks out of racing forms. the man does his work and also has a great eye for the horses.
i would never participate in those Southern California pools because of him.
especially maiden races that are full of first time starters.

if he puts $10,000 into a pick 6, he probably has a 90% chance to hit it. if i put $20,000 into it , i would have a 10% shot.

[Magister Ludi]

A bunch of us little fishies together can make a whale.

Correction: A bunch of little fishies together make a bait ball.

[MONEY]

The largest pick 6 payout in the history of California was won by a syndicate of 6 investors. There are advantages to pooling resources.
I believe that the 6 investors were 4 trainers and 2 owners that already had deep pockets.

[traynor]

It should be noted that successful group wagering is a factor of the skills involved, rather than the money. As Magister Ludi pointed out, a half dozen losers with deep pockets pooling their resources are not magically transformed into a winning wagering syndicate. They still have to pick the right horses, and that skill does not necessarily expand in lockstep with the number (or bankrolls) of the pickers.

The notion that a bigger bankroll or more investors increases the probability of winning because it allows them to "cover more wagers" or some other such silliness is wishful thinking on the part of most, and disinformation on the part of those seeking such investors for their own schemes.

[antigeekess]

Jimmy the Hat is as good as it gets. he just doesn't put his money on horses he picks out of racing forms. the man does his work and also has a great eye for the horses.
i would never participate in those Southern California pools because of him.
especially maiden races that are full of first time starters.

if he puts $10,000 into a pick 6, he probably has a 90% chance to hit it. if i put $20,000 into it , i would have a 10% shot.

And he's well connected, and he's there in the mornings, and...

Oh yeah, I know. Nobody works harder or is in a better position to succeed than JtH. He's fully loaded, both barrels, skills and bankroll.

That said, if you think you'd only have a 10% shot with $20,000, remind me never to join 'your' syndicate. ;)

[antigeekess]

Correction: A bunch of little fishies together make a bait ball.

Haha. :lol: You funny man. You got show?

[antigeekess]

It should be noted that successful group wagering is a factor of the skills involved, rather than the money.

I think the answer here is a both/and, rather than an either/or.

[/QUOTE] The notion that a bigger bankroll or more investors increases the probability of winning because it allows them to "cover more wagers" or some other such silliness is wishful thinking on the part of most....[/QUOTE]

I just gotta know, Traynor -- Do you play multirace exotics? 'Cuz I'm pretty sure everybody that does has had the sad, repetitive experience of just missing payouts because they had to scale back their ticket(s) for cost. If your funds are short, you have to go short in coverage as well.
It's not ferreting out single winners race by race with sniper-like precision. 6 times in a row is a little tough.

Show me a guy who's taken down a Pick 6 with a single $2 ticket, and I'll show you a guy with a time machine in his garage.

[Robert Fischer]

You guys are right about being cautious.

Buyer beware.


WHY??? would a good horseplayer want/need to use a syndicate of investors??

Pick 6 investment = $5,000

And many of you have sternly declared that you would never bet more than 1 or 2 percent of your bankroll on any given bet.

Bankroll needed - $500,000


$500K is a significant bankroll. Some very good horseplayers do not have a $500K bankroll.

Lets say a guy makes $100K a year profit playing the ponies, and is able to somehow miraculously save and reinvest $50K of that back into his bankroll ($50K living expenses).
Maybe in 5-10 years this guy will have $500K for his bankroll.

And the majority of us would say that this guy is an excellent horseplayer.


I'm not saying that D is raking in $100K a year profit, for all I know he or his partners are simply trying to generate some income with his name recognition.

I am trying to offer a little insight to some of the absolutes that have been offered up repeatedly in this thread however. It is probably just a waste of my last 5 minutes.

[thaskalos]

I think the answer here is a both/and, rather than an either/or.

The notion that a bigger bankroll or more investors increases the probability of winning because it allows them to "cover more wagers" or some other such silliness is wishful thinking on the part of most....[/QUOTE]

I just gotta know, Traynor -- Do you play multirace exotics? 'Cuz I'm pretty sure everybody that does has had the sad, repetitive experience of just missing payouts because they had to scale back their ticket(s) for cost. If your funds are short, you have to go short in coverage as well.
It's not ferreting out single winners race by race with sniper-like precision. 6 times in a row is a little tough.

Show me a guy who's taken down a Pick 6 with a single $2 ticket, and I'll show you a guy with a time machine in his garage.[/QUOTE]

You would be wrong.

There was a guy in California who took down a million-dollar+ Pick 6...with a total investment of $4 dollars. He bet the first $2-ticket...and then he realized that he liked a second horse in the last leg of the wager. He went to the window to play another $2-ticket so he could include that other horse in the last race...but made a mistake and played the same combination that he had already bet.

He caught the Pick 6 twice.

True story...from a few years back.

If you live long enough...you see everything. :)

[lamboguy]

I think the answer here is a both/and, rather than an either/or.

The notion that a bigger bankroll or more investors increases the probability of winning because it allows them to "cover more wagers" or some other such silliness is wishful thinking on the part of most....[/QUOTE]

I just gotta know, Traynor -- Do you play multirace exotics? 'Cuz I'm pretty sure everybody that does has had the sad, repetitive experience of just missing payouts because they had to scale back their ticket(s) for cost. If your funds are short, you have to go short in coverage as well.
It's not ferreting out single winners race by race with sniper-like precision. 6 times in a row is a little tough.

Show me a guy who's taken down a Pick 6 with a single $2 ticket, and I'll show you a guy with a time machine in his garage.[/QUOTE]when it comes down to straight handicapping, i should stay away from myself too! :lol: :lol: :lol:

[JustRalph]

There was a guy in California who took down a million-dollar+ Pick 6...with a total investment of $4 dollars. He bet the first $2-ticket...and then he realized that he liked a second horse in the last leg of the wager. He went to the window to play another $2-ticket so he could include that other horse in the last race...but made a mistake and played the same combination that he had already bet.

He caught the Pick 6 twice.

True story...from a few years back.

If you live long enough...you see everything. :)

I remember that story. Guy was at the track every day with his daughter? Very meager existence or retired? something like that. I wonder how many guys quit playing the pick 6 after that :lol:

[traynor]

I think the answer here is a both/and, rather than an either/or.

The notion that a bigger bankroll or more investors increases the probability of winning because it allows them to "cover more wagers" or some other such silliness is wishful thinking on the part of most....[/QUOTE]

I just gotta know, Traynor -- Do you play multirace exotics? 'Cuz I'm pretty sure everybody that does has had the sad, repetitive experience of just missing payouts because they had to scale back their ticket(s) for cost. If your funds are short, you have to go short in coverage as well.
It's not ferreting out single winners race by race with sniper-like precision. 6 times in a row is a little tough.

Show me a guy who's taken down a Pick 6 with a single $2 ticket, and I'll show you a guy with a time machine in his garage.[/QUOTE]

For several (quite successful) years, that is ALL I bet. As with most others who wager on such, I found patterns that could be successfully used to milk profits with limited range tickets--the more limited the range, the bigger the profits in the long run. Dumping buckets of money into the exotic pools chasing rainbows is not useful if profit is the primary motive. The possibility of "just missing payouts" is not especially distressing to me. I don't live or die based on the result of a single wager, or a single day's wagers.

[antigeekess]

Show me a guy who's taken down a Pick 6 with a single $2 ticket, and I'll show you a guy with a time machine in his garage.

You would be wrong.

There was a guy in California who took down a million-dollar+ Pick 6...with a total investment of $4 dollars. He bet the first $2-ticket...and then he realized that he liked a second horse in the last leg of the wager. He went to the window to play another $2-ticket so he could include that other horse in the last race...but made a mistake and played the same combination that he had already bet.

He caught the Pick 6 twice.

True story...from a few years back.

If you live long enough...you see everything. :)[/QUOTE]

Well, shut my mouth. I do, of course, have a few questions:

#1 - Was it YOU?

#2 - Was the check written in chalk and for like, a hundred bucks?

#3 - Barring the above...

Did anybody check that guy's garage? ;)

[antigeekess]

For several (quite successful) years, that is ALL I bet. As with most others who wager on such, I found patterns that could be successfully used to milk profits with limited range tickets--the more limited the range, the bigger the profits in the long run. Dumping buckets of money into the exotic pools chasing rainbows is not useful if profit is the primary motive. The possibility of "just missing payouts" is not especially distressing to me. I don't live or die based on the result of a single wager, or a single day's wagers.

Why would one quit such a delightful and profitable enterprise, one wonders? :)

I also can't help but wonder if the patterns detected weren't something along the line of Llewellyn Jewels' (I think) FF/BBB/O, etc. Or if you were onto something else altogether.

Care to share?

[ElKabong]

Show me a guy who's taken down a Pick 6 with a single $2 ticket, and I'll show you a guy with a time machine in his garage.

one of my alltime favorite jokes

> guy goes to the track everyday, makes the same bet. A $2 pick 6 ticket.

One day the guy hits the first 4 races, he gets a bit excited. A $30 winner and a $40 winner in there, and there's a big carryover

Fifth leg, his 5-1 comes in

Final leg, his 10-1 horse takes the lead late only to lose by a nose.

He goes home, his wife asks "so how did you do today out there?" The guy replies, "same old story, lost $2"....

(don't be a buzzkill and pipe in with 5 out of 6 shit)

[thaskalos]

one of my alltime favorite jokes

> guy goes to the track everyday, makes the same bet. A $2 pick 6 ticket.

One day the guy hits the first 4 races, he gets a bit excited. A $30 winner and a $40 winner in there, and there's a big carryover

Fifth leg, his 5-1 comes in

Final leg, his 10-1 horse takes the lead late only to lose by a nose.

He goes home, his wife asks "so how did you do today out there?" The guy replies, "same old story, lost $2"....

(don't be a buzzkill and pipe in with 5 out of 6 shit)

It works better with a parlay... :)

[pondman]

I believe that the 6 investors were 4 trainers and 2 owners that already had deep pockets.

McAnnally went through a number of steward's inquiries to answer why he was cashing +$400,000 tickets when his horse came in last.

But no there is a group in N Cal, running a lot of money through SR. I've talked with them, seen them hit. They're experience gamblers. They're not all that hot about singling a horse or spot playing, but they can consistently put together pick 6s. They don't seem to have any cash flow problem.

[Pensacola Pete]

one of my alltime favorite jokes

> guy goes to the track everyday, makes the same bet. A $2 pick 6 ticket.

One day the guy hits the first 4 races, he gets a bit excited. A $30 winner and a $40 winner in there, and there's a big carryover

Fifth leg, his 5-1 comes in

Final leg, his 10-1 horse takes the lead late only to lose by a nose.

He goes home, his wife asks "so how did you do today out there?" The guy replies, "same old story, lost $2"....

(don't be a buzzkill and pipe in with 5 out of 6 shit)

There's a variation of that story that Damon Runyon used to tell, and it goes like this:

A guy always lost gambling. Luckily, he had a wife who knew this, and she handled the money in the household, giving him an allowance every week. Unluckily, the wife was a constant nag, telling him to do this and that. On Sunday, he he was down to his last two bucks, which happened to be a $2 bill. "I'm going to the track," he said. It's free admission day."

"Sure," his wife snapped. "Go blow your last two dollars like you always do!"

"I don't always lose!" he said.

She grabbed the $2 bill and wrote 'Stupid' on it. She says: "Now, if you don't always lose, come back home with that bill!

So the guy goes to the track in time for the next to last race. He's steaming mad because of what his wife said. Out of spite, he puts his $2 on the longest shot on the board. To his surprise, it wins and pays him $47. But he isn't satisfied. He's going to blow that money. He puts it back on the longest shot in the last race. It wins, too, and he gets back $1,000 and a few odd dollars. He stuffs the odd bills in one pocket and the ten $100 bills in another.

The guy is still angry at his wife, and he takes the $1,000 to the local casino, buys chips, and puts them all down on the pass line. The shooter rolls a 7. He lets it ride. 11. He lets it ride again: 7.

"Let it ride!" he says.

"Sorry, sir," the boxman said. "There's a $5,000 limit here."

"But I want to bet it all!" he insisted.

"You can play Baccarat," a nearby pit boss (they call them "floormen" today) told him. "There's a $20,000 limit there."

The man takes his $8,000 to the Baccarat table and puts it down on the Player side. He gets a natural 9. He lets the $16,000 ride and wins, getting $32,000. When he's informed that he can only bet $20,000, he does so. He wins the next four hands with natural 8s or 9s.

At that point, he changes his attitude. "I have $112,000!" he says to himself. "Why should I keep trying to lose it all?" He tips the Baccarat table $1,000, goes back and tips the Craps table $1,000, then walks around tipping every other table for a few hundred each, then the cocktail servers, and the porters. As he passes by the restaurant, he drops a black chip ($100) on the serving tray of a waiter and says "My compliments to the chef!" He finally reaches the cashier's cage, tips them, and cashes out over $100,000, "I'd like $100 in cash and the rest by check, please," he wisely tells them, not wanting to carry that much money around with him.

On his way home, he gets an idea: "I'm going to open my own bank account with this," he says, "and not tell my nagging wife about it!" He hides the check in the glove compartment of the car.

As he walks up the steps to his house, he pulls the $100 bill out. With it came the few odd bills that he'd gotten from the track for his last payout. Unbelievably, his original $2 bill was there: the one with the word 'Stupid' on it. He smiled, stuffed the $100 into one pocket and the odd bills into another, then walked in the door.

"So," his wife was on him as soon as he entered, "how'd you do, as though I didn't know?"

"Well," the man said, pulling the original $2 bill out. "I didn't lose the $2!"

She looked at the $2 bill, then frowned. "You're being too clever," she said. "You got lucky and won, didn't you? Let's have it!"

The man sighed and pulled out the $6 in odd bills and handed them to her.

She wasn't satisfied. "Where's the rest? You won big tonight!"

The man glared at her and took the $100 out of his other pocket and handed it to her. "There, happy?" he asked.

"Yes," she said. She handed him back the $6. "This is $100 you won't lose." She handed him back the $6 in odd bills. "You can keep this. The rest goes into your allowance fund. And I'm going to keep this $2 bill, because the word 'Stupid' fits SOMEBODY in this room perfectly, and I don't have to tell you WHO that person is!"

"You certainly don't," the man agreed.