Weights

[karlskorner]

Good article

http://opinions.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=21431

[so.cal.fan]

That is an interesting article.
Has ANYONE ever determined (via extensive computer studies) if weight means anything? Anything at all?
Bobby Frankel once opined that he thought top weights were detrimental at the gate/start only.
We have long sort of thought that lower weights with speed on the front end were beneficial......but that high weights who close well, were not at a disadvantage.....however....this is just an old opinion......I have no idea if it has any merit or not.
Anybody?

[GameTheory]

The old school way to analyze weight is to look for horses getting a weight break in relation to the scale of weights. In other words, a 3 year old at equal weight with a 4 year old is actually at a weight disadvantage according to ancient scale of weights for age (at least a certain times of the year). I did a study along these lines to see if the scale was any good. From what I remember (although hazily, so I could be wrong), it did show some slight advantage to those getting a weight break after equalizing according to the scale. I believe other modern studies that look at weight difference only usually conclude that the high weights are the better bet (because they are the better horses).

I'll have to re-do the query and see what happens...

[schweitz]

Seems like I remember reading somewhere that the highest weighted horse wins more than its fair share of races--but then it is supposed to be the best horse.

I too would be interested in any study that shows the merit of weight off.

[TRM]

Ken Massa @ HTR did a computer study on the effect of weight.

http://www.homebased2.com/km/library.htm


I personally don't pay much attention to it.

:)


TRM

[schweitz]

TRM,

Thanks for the link--Iv'e never paid much attention either but have always wondered why so many trainers seem to think its important.

[The_Knight_Sky]

Originally posted by schweitz
.... have always wondered why so many trainers seem to think its important.


Because it's a built in excuse for the imminent loss in the race.
It's also a tactic to scratch out of a race if the trainer (or owner) doesn't like the competition that's drawn into the field.

I rank it right up there with the old wimpy remark: "the track was cuppy".
Of course the winning trainer would never utter "my horse loves a cuppy track". :D

[thoroughbred]

In response to the queston of weights, I have previously posted this excerpt from my paper, "Engineering Analysis of Thoroughbred Racing." Since the topic has arisen again, in this thread, it may prove useful.

The table provides you with some quantitative data relating to the weight question.

It shows, other things being equal, how the finish time of a horse changes due to a change in weight carried, at various distances. The numbers are for EACH pound of weight change. A "tick", of course, is 0.2 seconds.

TABLE 1
Time Change per One Pound Weight Change
(Normalized to 116 pounds)

Race Distance Time Change
(Furlongs) (Ticks)

5 0.187
5.5 0.231
6 0.280
6.5 0.336
7 0.398
7.5 0.467
8 0.543
8.5 0.627
9 0.719
10 0.930
12 1.479
15 2.716
16 3.276